Monday 4 January 2016

What can Johor Umno gives to Johor Pas?

Before I start, this is a comment that I received from my previous post,

Aiyaaaaa...why all this fighting....both pro government right?
or rather you want DAP to take over?
we just enter 2016 n u ladies already at each others throats.
between najib n tun...they are both NOT perfect stop bickering n start working with one another....stop wasting our time too....

I think the commentator has a point. I have been wasting not only my time but the time of readers of this blog too.

So, from now on I'm going to stick to my argument and not layan anything other bloggers throw at me.

They want to whack me, that's up to them.

I will try to mind my own business.

Okay, let's start.

Johor Pas contested 31 out of the 56 state seats in the last general election and they won only four.

On the other hand, Johor Umno contested 34 out of the 56 state seats and won 32.

The state seats which Pas won are Sungai Abong, Maharani, Parit Yani and Puteri Wangsa.

Sungai Abong and Maharani are located somewhere in Muar and have been with Pas since 2008.

The Pas guys who won there defeated Umno guys.

It seems that these are the only places in Johor where Pas guys can beat Umno guys in a Malay majority area.

Sungai Abong had 51 per cent Malay voters while Maharani had 55 per cent.

Muar Malays can be a bit funny.

As for Parit Yanni, the Pas guy there defeated a MCA guy in a Malay majority area (54 per cent). I think the outcome would have been different if an Umno guy contested there for BN.

In Puteri Wangsa, it was a classic Chinese tsunami case. The Pas guy received an almost solid support from the Chinese who made up 47 per cent of the voters to defeat a MIC guy.  Malays made up 40 per cent of the voters there.

For parliament, the Islamist party contested eight out of the the 25 seats in the state and it lost all of them.

Johor Umno contested 17 out of the 25 parliament seats and won 15.

So, that's the balance of power between Pas and Umno in Johor.

State seats :            Pas 4, Umno 32
Parliament seats :  Pas 0 , Umno 15

Now, is it really beneficial for Johor Umno to cooperate with its Pas counterpart?

Can Johor Pas contributes much to Barisan Nasional if the party decides to be friendly with the coalition?

Personally, I don't think so.

BN's problem in Johor is still largely the non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese.

Most of the constituencies lost to the opposition are non-Malay majority areas.

There are 18 opposition State seats - DAP (13),  Pas (4), PKR (1).

Out of the five parliament seats lost to the opposition, only Batu Pahat has a Malay majority at 52 per cent.

It was lost because the Umno headquarters refused to listen to the recommendation by Johor Umno liasion committee for DS Puad Zarkashi to be replaced due to intelligence reports which indicated that a lot of voters in Batu Pahat are not happy with him.

He was defeated by a PKR guy, for God's sake...PKR is a non-entity in Johor, okay.

And now Puad has been made the head of the strategic JASA....Jesus...peace be upon him....what else can I say.

The other parliamentary constituencies lost to the opposition are the Chinese-majority Gelang Patah, Kulai, Kluang and Bakri. all went into the DAP's basket.

So, Johor Umno working with Pas can get back all these lost non-Malay majority constituencies?

I don't think so la.

And now we have people going around being so intelligently gung-ho telling Johor Umno to kick out its own members and supporters who are unhappy with the party president and replace them with Pas people.

(Note: I'm not mentioning names, okay)

Either you are with us or against us.

Take no prisoner.

Konon nya lah.

How are they going to do that?

Make a death list for those to be executed, is it?

Come on la, Johor Umno people have always been mostly loyal to the party even if they are not happy with certain leaders.

Johor Umno was intact in 1999 as it delivered 100 per cent success in the general election that year  despite the Reformasi troubles caused  by DS Anwar Ibrahim at that time.

Johor BN actually won all the state and parliament seats that year.

In my opinion, Johor Umno can hold the state on its own. It doesn't need Pas.

Just don't kacau them.

I am not a big fan of DS Mohd Khaled Nordin, but I will really pity him and the rest of Johor Umno if they are forced to cooperate with Pas.

Pas will naturally want something in return for the cooperation. What can Khaled offers them?

Let say Johor Pas tells Khaled it wants just one parliament safe seat to contest in the next general election.

Which seat it is to be given to them?

Any Johor Umno divisional warlord willing to give up his/her sure win parliament seat to Pas for the sake of Umno-Pas cooperation?

How about if Johor Pas ask Johor Umno to give way to their candidates in several state constituencies in the Malay heartland?

You think that can work out?

I don't think so.

Which Johor Umno division willing to do that?

Let's not even talk about the Johor Umno grassroots.

Do you really think they can stomach having a Pas guy as their wakil rakyat while they know they can have their own man for the post.

It's already a major problem for Khaled Nordin to persuade the Johor Umno divisional warlords to give up Malay-majority electoral seats to fellow BN partners, MCA, MIC and Gerakan.

What more if he has to give up seats to Pas, which despite the possible cooperation will not likely be part of BN,

Going by the logics of those who advocate the "either you are with us or against us" dogma, Johor Umno is supposed to dispose not only its "rebellious" members and supporters but also the neutrals who support the party but refuse to be on Najib's or anyone's side

They argued that it's okay to do that as the vacum can be filled up by Pas after a cooperation with that party.

In actual fact, that will weaken Johor Umno and make it dependent on Pas for survival.

Isn't it better to win back the support of those unhappy members and supporters instead of surrendering Umno's sovereignty to Pas just to live up to some idiotic soundbites such as "We don't take prisoner"?

But of course this suggestion is just from me, an insignificant anonymous blogger.

On the other hand, bloggers who want Umno to impose policies such as "Either you are with us or against us" are the prominent ones.

Their blogs are also canggih.

Got fascinating charts and graphs.

(Note: I lauded other blogs as being more sophisticated and credible than mine)

Something like that la.

Well, good luck to Khaled Nordin and  Johor Umno.


  1. My prediction.

    Najib factor, PG will no longer safe seat for Khaled. Normala also, not safe.

    Sg Abong and Maharani, I think, personal factors, Dr Ibrahim and Dr Muhammad are well known by local people in Muar among Malays and Chinese.

    I think, because of Najib factor, UMNO has no choice but to collaborate with PAS to survive in Johor.

    1. You think too much but we umno loyalist differentiate antara hak dan palsu, antara benar dan dusta!

  2. PAS sudah lumpuh di Johor dan tidak keterlaluan seluruh negara dari sokongan akar umbi..
    Di Kelantan kena robek.
    Husam di pentas PAN atas alasan Hadi "boleh" di pentas UMNO...

    PAN di Johor dianggotai ahli dan pemimpin PAS yang dulunya menjadi penggerak PAS, yang tinggal di PAS Johor adalah tunggul.

    Hi Tea, perjumpaan, perasmian, gotong royong, bantuan melalui semua biro PAN bergerak cergas setiap minggu dengan sambutan tenaga muda 20-50 tahun...UMNO ada ?

    Perjumpaan KBU dengan gabungan 10-11 cawangan, berapa yang hadir?
    Soalan tentang 2.6B, apa jawapan mereka, akar umbi jangan campur hal pemimpin atasan, suruh balik jaga cawangan dan ditakut takutkan dengan DAP...
    Berhati hati dengan DAP untuk kepentingan Siapa?

    Siapa yang ada duit banyak, billliiioonnnsss...biar dia lah yang lawan DAP.

    1. SETUJUUUUUU.............hehehe.
      I don't think DAP is all that bad.
      Lepas baca b log ZAMKATA, I feel like voting DAP for PRU14. Give DAP a chancelah jadi Kerajaan.
      Mungkin kita akan lebih bersih.
      Takda baukshit!

  3. PAN? or PANts for DAP? hahaha

  4. Nampak tak? Betapa DAP semakin kuat di Johor, sampai DS Khalid sanggup kerjasama dgn PAS. Kenapa PAS...? MCA MIC dah hampir mampus.. Ahli2nya banyak dah lari ke DAP. Kalau tak cuba berdamai dgn PAS ada harapan BN Johor terkubur pada PRU, kalau berdamai pun mungkin menang cukup2 makan aje.


  5. What can Johor PAS give Johor UMNO, adinda Ms Annie?

    " Kita nak tolong selesaikan masalah,
    kita bukan nak rebut kuasa.
    Kalau UMNO ubah kuasa dengan konsep Islam kita akan bantu dia"

    -- Tn Guru DS Haji A Hadi on 31st October 2015

    Haji M Zin
    Alor Gajah DPH

  6. Annie,
    I'am not going to your calculation above,its already perfect and "sungguh teruja",I think better you stick to yourself and what you have said , dont bothered what ever other's blogger have said because some of them espcially Ajib gor 'macai' blogger are not relevant at all due to the concept of "money is the king"no need for me to name some of them but most readers knows its well. This included that blogger always "gunting dalam lipatan" ones.

    Regarding UMNO + PAS , actually Annie if Najib"The donation" and Hadi the "kafir mengafir" still hold to thier post untill PRU 14 , UMNO and PAS will finish and they were not relevant after PRU 14 its simple calculation and the mood is growing you are not dealing with the people born in the 50's and below but during this election you are dealing with genaration born in 70's and above which the mood "always change and can be change easily," they followed fact and current sentiments not imaginations.

    Annie,kenapa Najib dan Hadi membuat umno dan Pas tak relevan kerana Najib sendiri reputasi sungguh buruk dan sudah sinonim dengan rasuah sehinggakan kanak kanak dan kebanyakan remaja sudah pandai guna nama si najib ini sebagai bahan lawak jenaka dalam wasapp dan pergaulan harian mereka ini tak pernah terjadi pada PM lepas walaupun seburuk Pak lah . Hadi pula reputasi semakin merosot terutama pada ahli muda dalam Pas malah PAS sendiri berdiri kukuh atas kehadiran ahli ahli ini yang sungguh aggresif sebelum ini , dan ahli ini sudah banyak berpindah ke AMANAH ,sekiranya PAS hanya tinggal lebai lebai Tua iaitu umur 50 keatas adakah ia akan relevan lagi beberapa tahun akan datang atau selepas PRU 14.
    Sekarang PAS nak lanjutkan nyawa Hadi dan lebai lebai tua dalam PAS terpaksa cantum dengan Najib ini lagi membebankan hayat PAS kerana generasi muda PAS sah melihat Hadi sebagai "idiot Al munafikun" percaya lah jentera PAS akan slow dari masa ke semasa walau pun nampak banyak dengan lautan kehijauan lebai lebai tua yang dah tak relevan.


  7. Pilihanraya manyak lama lagi maa aa ,itu UMNO manyak strong and itu Najib pon manyak strong lapat 100% support from 3 million ahli (parti terbesar) ,apa pasat mau takut maa aa .

    Wa manyak sure itu Najib bolih pukut habit punya maa aa itu GE 13 , itu penentang semua sutak kasi habit .

    Sikalang manyak UMNO manyak solid ,apa pasat mau kawan itu PAS , lagi satu apa macam itu PAS mau kawan UMNO ,lulu kata manyak kotor ,sikalang sutak wangi ahh hh .

    Wa manyak helan nea aa !.

  8. If Khaled Nordin must choose either Ah Jib Gor or Jho Low macam mana?

    Is it our angels or our devils we serve bros.?

  9. Helen Ang seems to have a good answer to your question "What can Johor UMNO gives to Johor PAS?". "The MCA seats to contest".
    To me that's a very good plan. A very good plan to loose wisely. Of course with the help of regression lines.
    Johorean staying up north

  10. Annie, I usually give my comments in English but today I feel like giving my comments in Bahasa Melayu.
    Untuk pengetahuan Annie dan rakan-rakan semua, saya dilahirkan dan dibesarkan di Johor sehingga berumur 18 tahun. Arwah abah saya adalah aktivis UMNO pada peringkat akar umbi. Selepas menamatkan pelajaran saya telah memulakan kerjaya saya di Kelantan semenjak tahun 1987 dan telah menetap di Kelantan ever since.
    kenapa saya tulis semua ini? Untuk memberitahu yang saya have the advantages of looking at Kelantan Malays and Johor Malays.Melayu Kelantan dan Melayu johor mempunyai mindset yg berbeza. Melayu Johor lebih terbuka hasil pergaulan dengan bukan Melayu sedangkan Melayu Kelantan lebih tertutup.

    Saya menyokong kerjasama Pas dgn UMNO sbb we have to see a big picture.Apa yang Annie terangkan di atas adalah the total opposite dari apa yg berlaku di Kelantan. Kalau di Joohor UMNO tak perlukan Pas, sebaliknya di Kelantan Pas tak perlukan UMNO utk kekalkan kuasa.
    Alangkah baiknya kerjasama berlaku. You give some, you take some.At the end of the day, dua dua untung

    Prof Kangkung

    1. Prof Kang.

      Saya juga setuju PAS dan UMNO 'berbaik-baik' demi perpaduan Melayu. Tidak semestinya 'berpakat' secara rasmi. Setakat punyai kefahaman untuk berkerjasama secara 'tersembunyi' untuk memelihara kepentingan Bangsa dan Agama, sudah cukup. Sama seperti masyarakat Cina 'berkerjasama' memastikan DAP atau Pakatan menang, PRU13.
      - Anak muda Melayu tiada kesedaran untuk mendaftar sebagai pengundi. Saya sendiri punyai masaalah untuk mendesak dua anak lelaki yang sudah mencapai umur 21, mendaftar walaupun mereka jelas, anti-DAP.
      - 'Money is King' kepada Melayu. Saya pernah dengar, kawan diberi RM500 untuk pergi mengundi. (dulu dia berkerja di Pahang, kemudian balik Kedah. Dia berdaftar sebagai pengundi di Pahang). Manakala orang Cina sanggup mengeluarkan beribu ringgit tambang kapalterbang, balik mengundi.

      Satu lagi masaalah ialah soal integriti dan credibility. Najib, langsung tiada credit dalam kedua sifat ini. PAS juga, berada dalam deficit kerana pernah berkerjasama dengan DAP yang anti-Islam. Bersengkokol dengan Peliwat yang pernah menyemarakkan rasuah dalam UMNO dan membela sex-maniac itu apabila tertangkap video sedang membalun China-doll. Haji Hadi juga pernah mengkafirkan UMNO.

      Oleh yang demikian, kedua-dua, PAS dan UMNO mesti di'bersih'kan terlebih dahulu, jika mahu kerjasama itu, berjaya. Kedua-dua President mesti ditukar, termasuk 80% anggota kabinet. Syarat, tidak boleh berbini lebih dari satu, mesti dijadikan amalan. Dalam politik, persepsi amat penting. Syarat inilah yang menjadi keutamaan kepada LKY ketika membentuk Kerajaan.

    2. You're too idealistic lah bro. Tak nampak ke semua perwakilan dan ahli MKT beri sokongan padu kat Presiden masa PAU baru2 ni

    3. 'Sokongan padu' kerana takut hilang jawatan yang menjadi sumber kuasa & WANG? Seolah-olah, telor perwakilan di picit?

  11. Prof., PAS punya Hadi Awang bermain politik Islamist akidah mujassimah dan mutasyabihah; sedangkan UMNO lazim menegakkan Islam ahl sunnah wal jamaah iaitu: tauhid, fiqh, tasawwuf. PAS tidak

  12. What's wrong with PAS voting UMNO to take more seats in Johor and UMNO voting PAS against PAN in Kelantan?Johor is to UMNO like Kelantan is to PAS, right?

    Let's leave aside Peninsular and talk about Sarawak too, why don't PAS just leave Sarawak to Sarawak BN as well?

    This is going to be one problem partnership if the parties involved are more concerned with taking from each other rather than using the cooperation to face the Pakatan parties to take the seats they have.

    Yes, this so called cooperation should talk about on how to handle Selangor and Penang instead of carving up Johor.

  13. Isle boleh juang parti politik ke?

  14. Annie, if we think outside the box isn't it possible that the unnamed blogger is perhaps one of those secretly working against the BN (by pretending to be against DAP etc)? It's reverse psychology, no? The more she rants and raves the more she puts off people who may be sitting on the fence or who may have voted for the opposition previously because they were so unhappy about some issues.

    You are the better blogger.

    1. Saya pun ada perasaan macam ini.Perfect trojan horse

  15. Annie,

    I believe that UMNO and PAS will become an item in PRU14.

    PAS needs UMNO more than UMNO needs PAS.

    PAS on its own is impotent and will go nowhere except maybe Kelantan.

    Hence PAS will ally with UMNO on the pretext of race and religion but really, it is to save PAS's ass.

    UMNO does not really need PAS but any additional help along the lines of race and religion will benefit UMNO.

    PAS can then be sent into DAP and Amanah seats to split the Pakatan voter base with UMNO being the beneficiary.

    I seriously doubt if UMNO or MCA or MIC will give up any seats for PAS, so PAS's only real role is to be the spoiler, the vote splitter :)

    PAS will then have to just trust UMNO about being made an adviser, etc etc etc. It has no choice but to depend on UMNO's generosity and the promise of working together for race and religion. Note that PAS is very susceptible to any promises made using Arabic phrases.

    If PAS cannot sit on the throne to rule every Malaysian, it will settle for the next best thing, being the power behind the throne.


    P.S. BTW, I just absolutely love the "Jesus... peace be upon him" remark :) I hope it is not patented or trademarked as I will be using it from now on :)


    1. Muslim wish after Prophets with AS, Sdr ANON 21:28
      where "Jesus AS" is the romanised Arabic for
      "Jesus, Peace Be Upon Him"
      ( Jesus PBUH also common )

      No patent and let it in-sya-Allah be sincere.

      Haji M Zin
      Alor Gajah DPH

  16. Yes Annie, you should not give 2 hoot of what other bloggers write or think of you.

    Keep your original thinking. Be original.

  17. bayangkan. ..menjelang PRU 14..PAS dan PAN berbaik2 semula (ataupun sebenarnya berlakon xngam sekarang)apa akan terjadi dgn UMNO di kawasan bandar dan pinggir bandar di kawasan parlimen maupun DUN yg pengundi melayu 50%atau 60%.pastinya PAN sapu abis undi bukan melayu dan tiada masalah utk mendapat sekurang2nya 35%undi melayu.Dengan defisit keyakinan kepimpinan BN dan UMNO sebagai tunggaknya pastinya PAS akan menjadi pilihan jika berentap 1 lwn 1 dgn UMNO di luar bandar maupun di kawasan majoriti amat tinggi pengundi melayu.dlm politik segalanya mungkin.silap mata yg tersilap langkah UMNO boleh keluar airmata.

  18. I have to say something about this mentality , as stated in your opening post about the anon's comment:

    Both not perfect = can get away with anything.

    Bodoh kan?

  19. It's naive to say the least, it's unproductive and simpleton mentality for the fellow to say ".. stop bickering n start working with one another....".

    And it's even "unclever" to say "stop wasting our time too..."Because he/she has no business to be reading what is being said if it's not of any use.

  20. Tun has the advantage of hindsight. Najib has the advantage of both Tun's hindsight, often given in the name of promoting a longer tenure of UMNO/BN rule, and his own current control of events.

    Of course, Najib's way of controlling events is the problem and attempts must continuously be made to make him and the UMNO Supreme Council and the Ketua Ketua Bahagian realize the folly of it all.

    Towards that end, nobody should get tired or feel futile of doing so. PRU14 is still a few years hence. A lot can still be done to correct the wrongs that have happened since the 1MDB and the RM2.6 billion became a huge scandal.

  21. UMNO won 88 seats at PRU13. There's no telling that all those constituencies will remain UMNO come PRU14. So many UMNO voters have said they would either not go out to vote or would vote the Opposition because of the 1MDB and the RM2.6 billion scandal.

    Even if there'd be co-operation with PAS, there's no guarantee that the two would bring 88 seats plus PAS' seats won at PRU13. There's not even any certainty that that co-operation will materialise. PAS are themselves divided on the matter.

    Nobody has a clear crystal ball. So, all concerned should continue asking for Najib to withdraw or UMNO replace him. That would ensure better chances for UMNO/BN to continue in Putrajaya after PRU14.