Wednesday 6 May 2015

Rompin warning bell

My sister blogger Helen Ang came out with it first,

Alamat keputusan Rompin: PRU14 nanti orang pro-kerajaan akan pilih untuk duduk di rumah juga


  • Hasan Arifin (Umno) got  23,796 votes
  • Nazri Ahmad (PAS) got  14,901 votes
  • Jamaluddin Jarjis (Umno) got  30,040 votes
  • Nuridah Mohd Salleh (PAS) got  14,926 votes
In the interval of exactly two years between 5 May 2013 (13th general election) and 5 May 2015 (yesterday), Umno lost 6,244 votes. PAS only lost 25 votes.
Turnout dropped drastically
  • GE13 : 85.9%
  • By-election : 73%
Since there is no change in the level of support for PAS, then the logical conclusion is that it is the BN voters who were not motivated to come out to vote.

My analysis of the Rompin by-election results was actually the same as Helen's.

So, I think I better not waste my time writing mine.

You all can read Helen's if you want to know what I think about the BN's reduced majority in Rompin from over 15,000 to less than 9,000.

Well, at least it's not as bad as the prediction of my friend who was campaigning for BN in Rompin the other day.

He had said that the majority could be slashed to between 5,000 and 6,000.

You can read it here:
Rompin and a bit of Wesak Day love

Whatever it is, it should still be remembered that Rompin is a BN stronghold with 14 Felda settlements, which were traditionally vote banks of the ruling coalition.

A loss of over 6,000 votes in such a constituency should warned BN that something was not right.

It should also be noted that the outcome of the Rompin by-election was a reversal of a positive trend for BN in the series of nine by-elections since the 2013 general elections (GE13).

In the last parliamentary by-election before Rompin, BN candidate D Mah Siew Keong of Gerakan sprang a surprise in Teluk Intan in May last year by beating DAP's Dyana Sofya by reversing a seven percent majority votes won by the opposition party in GE13.

For details:
Teluk Intan by-election,

BN, or to be precise Umno had even done well in its previous encounters with Pas such as the Pengkalan Kubor state by-election in September last year when its candidate  Mat Razi Mat Ali defeated Pas' Wan Rosdi Wan Ibrahim by improving the coalition's majority by 5.57 per cent.

For details:
Pengkalan Kubor by-election

So, what happened since then?

TS Muhyiddin Yassin as BN's "by-election director-general" had said there will be a post-mortem on the Rompin by-election results. Hopefully the effort will yield good response instead of just being swept under the carpet.

Now, if the outcome of the soon to be held Permatang Pauh by-election doesn't favor BN too, then the coalition must do something urgent to arrest what could be a declining support for them.

Otherwise, the next general election, to be held less than three years from now can be quite disastrous for the ruling coalition.


  1. Najib can go his merry way to Singapore announcing relatioship between him n Singapore is great, best ever.

    Thats clueless and moron for you!!


    1. Cubit paha kiri, paha kanan sakit begitu juga

      .. as Singapore must also be pondering its future growth, Sdr ANON 10:17
      cannot depend solely on increasing Chinese & Indian immigrant $ and talent
      so must turn to DS Mohd Najib and in-sya-Allah collaborate with its ASEAN neighbours for its growth, kan?

      Haji M Zin.
      Alor Gajah DPH.

    2. Watch out, that Singapore PM is the sponsor of TPPA! Najib akan sign saje TPPA tu dan gadaikan negara kepada perundangan super-capitalist.


    3. Just a concern and negotiation strategy note, Sdr ANON 15: 58
      that we now talk with super-capitalist Singapore who may no longer be at a higher negotiating position vs Malaysia.

      That would in-sya-Allah be really be win-win.

      Haji M Zin
      Alor Gajah DPH

    4. When you disobey Allah - A lesson from the fall of Satan


  2. Not fan of his singing but this ex-TV1s celebrity ustaz, adinda Ms Annie
    made an appeal that is surely Permatang Pauhs Muslim bipartisan
    and is this PKRs campaign unending nightmare
    which closes today unanswered.

    Kazim ala-Kazaam?
    "Sebab itu di Parlimen Permatag Pauh ini sekalu pun, pengundi kena tengok Ahli Parlimen itu boleh angkat tangan sokong Hudud atau tidak(?)"

    -- al-Fadil Dato M Kazim on 4th May 2015.

    Haji M Zin
    Alor Gajah DPH

    1. Hj M zin ni tak habis habis dok sebut ADINDA ms annie..... Ada apa apa ke bang haji? Hehehe


    2. Hehehe, Bro ANON 16: 01

      Haji M Zin
      Alor Gajah DPH

    3. Haji miang. Kalau dasar jantan tu... Huh!!

  3. That something is G - S - T

  4. The first urgent thing that BN need to do is to get rid of the useless,brainless Jibby Kangkung as the President. The president of MIC & MCA should also be removed without any doubt.


  5. Annie,
    In my opinion ,the Rompin result it is not BN to worry much but the other way round PR.
    with all this GST ho ha and TDM bashing Najib they still cannot increase their votes infact stangnant.
    In 2 yrs time this GST issue will die down and even to the advantage of the govt as the govt increase the coffer true GST,they may increase BRIM to look after their votes bank the rural folks
    Just observed just into 2 mnths implementation ,business as usual for majorities of citizens esp rural folks,it is only the urbanites and greedy businessmen felt the pinch.You think the govt care much for these groups because it is better to look after those who appreciated your assisstance.
    1 MDB,same as when Khazanah National was introduced,may be it produced result in 2 yrs time ,it will shut up the critics.
    Additional to these,few of the Oppo lawmakers esp from PKR are facing legal civil suit and if convicted the punishments mostly will disquaqlified the from standing as candidates.The govt is not stupid,DSAI case is good e.g how case can be resolved fast.
    I thought the PMOs wallas are clueless iniatially but now I realised their strategies were far more better than the X Chief Strategist of PKR.
    Anxiously waiting for PP result.

  6. Kawasan putih BN dah jadi kelabu asap. Just imagine 3 years from now. that is the impact of GST for ya...the rakyat is protesting...


    1. PEMANDU kata tukar daripada subsidi petrol, Sdr ANON 21:20
      kutip pulak GST boleh la tambah lagi BR1M .. in-sya-Allah hilang la kolabu tu.

      Haji M Zin
      Alor Gajah DPH

  7. Orang Mahathirists dah sabo parti UMNO kat Rompin. Ramai mereka tak keluar mengundi dan yang terpaksa tunjuk muka mengundi, pangkah PAS pulak.

    Kat PP lain pulak akan jadi. Ramai Mahathirists tak akan pangkah PKR dan buat undi rosak.dan peratues pengundi walaupun akan jatuh tetapi PKR akan tetap menang dengan majoritii seperti dahulu.

    Apa nak buat?

    Musuh dalam selimut.

    Kerana seekor nyamuk, dibakar kelambu mengikut Mahafiraun mereka.

    Terlalu ramai sangat Mahathirists penyangat Melayu kat parti UMNO.

    Perasaan bengis dan iri hati mereka lebih teruk berbanding pembangkang.

  8. 21.20
    To rural folks on this GST they could not care less cos what isthere losing few cents when they receive more through BRIM which is many times more than what they were made to pay through GST,afterall most essential items they used did not involved GST
    3yrs from now GST will be forgotten..

  9. You know I know everybody know the reasons, just the Pee Emmm and Co will never know.