GE14 to be decided in Umno's 40 marginal seats
So, it's quite clear now where the Pakatan's main attack will be concentrated for GE14.
The key, as always, is on whether Pakatan can get enough Malays to support them.
Liew and his DAP buddies know this for certain and learning from the experience of GE13, I believe they will let the Malays in the opposition coalition to take the lead this time.
DAP tried to do that in GE13 but it was not good enough as the Chinese tsunami spooked the Malays. They also realised that their aggressive wooing of the Chinese and demands for things such as a non- Malay for the DPM post had back fired.
Back then they used Pas to break the Umno's Malay vote bank but it didn't work. Pas was simply not good enough to do that.
For instance, in Johor, which is definitely going to be the most important frontline state for GE14, over 83 per cent Malays voted for BN in 2013.
This time, I believe Pribumi will take over the role played by Pas in the last general election.
Despite being a young party compared to Pas, I think Pribumi can be quite dangerous in especially those targeted areas.
With Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading their charge, the risk of BN losing those marginal seats is very much greater.
Pribumi is after all mostly ex-Umno and they know how to fight their former colleagues.
PKR and Amanah may know this too and willing to take the back seats. If they don't, then that's too bad for them.
The question in my head now is whether BN, particularly Umno realise this impending danger and are prepared for it.
At the moment, from the little that I know, Penang and Perak Umno are doing a relatively good job. At the current rate, I believe it will be status quo there.
Kedah Umno, I was told, is doing its best but its efforts may not be good enough.
Selangor Umno is Selangor Umno. No need to comment further.
Pahang Umno is quite okay but those areas along the Karak Highway being targeted do look quite vulnerable.
Johor, which is where I'm most familiar with, is the one I think where the Pakatan's hammer will fall the hardest. The last time I checked, Johor Umno is trying its best to be prepared but has yet to reach the level of preparedness it achieved at the same point before the last general election. If I'm still involved as I did there in GE13, I would be worried.
Well, you can compare Liew's analysis with this one by me;
Meanwhile there's this story by Malaysian Insight too yesterday ;
Interesting, isn't it?
Okay, those are quite serious stuff.
To lighten up things, let's listen to some music;