Sunday 8 October 2017

Where the Pakatan's hammer will fall

The MP of my hometown, DAP's Liew Chin Tong was quoted by Malaysian Insight as saying this yesterday;

GE14 to be decided in Umno's 40 marginal seats


Liew said Umno has 73 seats in the peninsula, in which 30 were fixed deposit seats, mainly situated on the east coast.
Taking a 60-40% mixed seat as an example, Liew said PH could garner 80% of the non-Malay votes while the Malay votes would be divided four-ways among Umno, PH, “hardcore” PAS voters who are virulently anti-Umno and those who are pro-PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang who supported Umno.
Liew said PH needs only 10 to 15% of the Malay votes to win the seat.
“A swing is possible. The scenario painted by Lim Kit Siang of a 10% Malay swing for PH to win the general election is achievable.
“There will be a Malay-Malaysian tsunami. You will see a new government.”
Liew said the battle ground will be in southern Kedah, northern and southern Perak, northern Penang, northern Selangor, Pahang along the Karak highway, and northern and southern Johor.
So, it's quite clear now where the Pakatan's main attack will be concentrated for GE14.

The key, as always, is on whether Pakatan can get enough Malays to support them.

Liew and his DAP buddies know this for certain and learning from the experience of GE13, I believe they will let the Malays in the opposition coalition to take the lead this time.

DAP tried to do that in GE13 but it was not good enough as the Chinese tsunami spooked the Malays. They also realised that their aggressive wooing of the Chinese and demands for things such as a non- Malay for the DPM post had back fired.

Back then they used Pas to break the Umno's Malay vote bank but it didn't work. Pas was simply not good enough to do that.

For instance, in Johor, which is definitely going to be the most important frontline state for GE14, over 83 per cent Malays voted for BN in 2013.

This time, I believe Pribumi will take over the role played by Pas in the last general election.

Despite being a young party compared to Pas, I think Pribumi can be quite dangerous in especially those targeted areas.

With Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading their charge, the risk of BN losing those marginal seats is very much greater.

Pribumi is after all mostly ex-Umno and they know how to fight their former colleagues.

PKR and Amanah may know this too and willing to take the back seats. If they don't, then that's too bad for them.

The question in my head now is whether BN, particularly Umno realise this impending danger and are prepared for it.

At the moment, from the little that I know, Penang and Perak Umno are doing a relatively good job. At the current rate, I believe it will be status quo there.

Kedah Umno, I was told, is doing its best but its efforts may not be good enough.

Selangor Umno is Selangor Umno. No need to comment further.

Pahang Umno is quite okay but those areas along the Karak Highway being targeted do look quite vulnerable.

Johor, which is where I'm most familiar with, is the one I think where the Pakatan's hammer will fall the hardest. The last time I checked, Johor Umno is trying its best to be prepared  but has yet to reach the level of preparedness it achieved at the same point before the last general election. If I'm still involved as I did there in GE13, I would be worried.

Well, you can compare Liew's analysis with this one by me;

Meanwhile there's this story by Malaysian Insight too yesterday ;

Pakatan had better not pin hopes on Malay tsunami, says pollster 

Interesting, isn't it?

Okay, those are quite serious stuff.

To lighten up things, let's listen to some music;



  1. I am a Johorian too.Even though I have been away from Johor for more than 30 years I still keep in touch with Johor through wassapp groups.
    Based on my observation through several Johor-based wassap groups I believe Malays in Johor are still behind UMNO/BN.
    The talk that tan sri muhyiddin Yassin might move from Pagoh to Muar parliment seat shows that even TSMY hinself is not so sure about the Malay support to him.Hence the move tu Muar which has significantly more Chinese voters.

    Prof Kangkung

    1. Prof. Kangkong.

      Maybe TSMY is very confident of winning Pagoh hands-down. That he dares to field his right-hand man there, while he himself, with his stature, go for Muar to gather another extra seat in Parliament.
      Isn't that what we call... kill two birds with one stone?

    2. Pros Kangkang,

      I too support Umno as I am an intellectual lightweight, however not bad enough to teach in Universiti Ini Tipu Melayu (UITM). They only allow the mentally disabled or dedak addicts to lecture.

      Of course, mentally disabled dedak addicts are also welcome.

      They can join MPN and make things out of hippo droppings. And learn to steal money like what happened in Tapah.

      Prof Sawi

  2. Cukup hebat bila Najib jadi PM ;

    1. Proton - hancus
    2. F1 - ditutup
    3. Sg Besi Airport - dijual
    4. 1MDB - gagal
    5. Ringgit Malaysia - merudum
    6. Tol - semakin bercambah
    7. GST - raja segala cukai
    8. Kdai 1Mal - byk tutup
    9. Hutang Negara - semakin tinggi
    10. Minyak - naik
    11. Jenayah - semakin meningkat
    12. Harga Barang - naik
    13. Rakyat - ramai menganggur
    14. Pelabur Asing - keluar dr Mal
    15. Ahli UMNO - ramai keluar
    16. PTPTN - disekat
    17. Arak - dah jd budaya
    18. Warga Asing - bertambah
    19. Kapalterbang - hilang
    20. Elektrik - naik
    21. Gas LPG - naik
    22. Kedai Game - makin banyak
    23. Bas - tambang naik
    24. Felda - jahanam
    25. 5,000 doctor menganggur.
    26. 5,000 Jurutera menganggur.
    27. Doctor Gigi menganggur.
    28. Graduan menganggur
    29. Berjuta warga Asing bermaharaja lela.
    30. Lain2 korang pk sendiri......

    1. With your list of Najib's achievements, ini pun
      Prof.Kangkung cakap, orang Johor tetap akan
      undi UMNO!!!!.................KAHKAHKAHKAH.
      Tak tahu waasap group manalah yang masih sokong
      With Prof.Kangkong punya prediction, we may
      ends up exactly like Zimbabwe.

    2. Pink diamond Mrs MO1 makin banyak...

    3. johor di lain planet all my johorean friends are anti umno

    4. no 27 doctor gigi menganggur, budak kolej vokasional jadi doktor gigi belajar di youtube

    5. Cik Minah,

      Saya menyokong Prof. Kangkong.

      Sebenarnya hal-hal seperti rasuah adalah terjadi di mana-mana.

      Sudah terbukti dan dijatuhkan hukum kesalahan rasuah perdana menteri Thailand dan Korea. Memang tak boleh dielakkan.

      Prof. Kangkong berpandangan jauh.

      Kejadian menganggur bukan tanggungjawap kerajaan.

      Orang melayu perlu tambah usaha. Peluang untuk memandu sambilan Uber dan Grab masih banyak.

      Kalau harga barang semakin naik, kita mesti amalkan berjimat cermat atau ambil peluang untuk amalkan puasa.

      Yang paling penting dan utama sekali, kita kena pastikan UMNO berkuasa.

      Hal-hal yang lain tak penting.

    6. those were triggered by mahathir, said d scattered brains. d "Aha!" moment tat ans all questions.

    7. Salute mad najeb bapak pelengkup negare.. Kalah madey kot..

    8. Betul Anon 23:55.

      Lalu saya bertanya kepada diri saya adakah Malaysia bumi ini bertuah sudah benar-benar merdeka? Adakah benar anak-anak bumi Malaysia kini sudah betul-betul bebas dari belenggu penjajahan?

      1. Perdana Menterimu dahulu begitu percaya akan keupayaan bangsanya sendiri sehingga sanggup memperjudikan nyawa beliau dengan membenarkan seorang doktor dari kalangan anak tempatan membuat pemindahan pintasan jantung ke atas beliau.

      2. Perdana Menterimu dahulu begitu bangga dengan keupayaan anak tempatan dengan memberi sepenuh kepercayaan kepada anak bangsanya sendiri menerajui projek-projek infrastruktur mega di negara ini tanpa penglibatan orang asing. Plus,KLIA,Putrajaya,ERL, LRT,Monorel,KL Sentral to name a few.

      3. Perdana Menterimu dahulu begitu memberi kepercayaan kepada anak bangsanya sendiri dengan melantik anak-anak tempatan untuk menerajui syarikat-syarikat milik kerajaan dan memberikan sepenuh kepercayaan kepada mereka.

      Itu duhulu tapi kini bagaimana?

      1.Anak tempatan tak tahu apa-apa pasal penerbangan sehingga tiada satu pun yang layak untuk menerajui MAB sehingga dilantik dari kalangan bangsa asing.

      2.Anak tempatan tak tahu apa-apa pasal kereta dan industri Automotif sehingga Ketua eksekutif Proton dilantik dari kalangan bangsa asing.

      3.Syarikat milik tempatan tiada satu yang berkeupayaan untuk melaksanakan projek-projek infrastruktur yang berstatus mega sehingga pelaksana projek ECRL dah ERL master developernya dilantik dari kalangan bangsa asing. Dibangunkan dengan dana asing dan penggerak utamanya dari kalangan bangsa asing.

      4.Anak-anak tempatan tidak pandai mengurus dan menyelenggara aset-aset milik negara sehingga satu persatu aset-aset berharga dan strategik milik negara jatuh ke tangan asing.

      Berdasarkan perihal semua ini adakah kita sudah benar-benar merdeka??

    9. Nak buat macam mana Anon 21:50.

      Pemimpin tertinggi Melayu sendiri lebih berbangga dengan EPL Omputih dari Harimau Malaya. Bangga jadi ahli FanClub MU. Siap berjersi-penuh Kelab MU, melepak dan terkinja-kinja besorak bersama anak-anak-muda, bila gol dijaringkan.

      MatSalleh kaki-botol dan berparty-liar pun dia percaya untuk berinya nasihat dalam mentadbir Negara.

      Mungkin dimata pemimpin tertinggi Melayu, Rakyat dan Negaranya sendiri masih lekeh dan low-class. Tak main la, membeli-belah di Komplek MARA atau Bukit Bintang. Sebab itu... sebelum scandal 1MDB meletop... kerap bershopping diKotaraya-Besar di Negara-Negara Kapir je.

  3. The outcome of GE14 will be very interesting to watch, though could at the same time lead to an unstable federal or state government if they win on the majority of parliamentary or state seats won.

    In multi-cornered fights in both parliamentary and state constituencies, it is quite possible that the candidate who wins, does so with the largest minority of votes, so in effect the majority of voters are in fact against the winning candidate, except that their vote was split.

    Imagine a four-cornered fight in which the contestants get 35%, 30%. 25% and 10% of the vote and the candidate with 35% wins the seat but 65% of the voters combined are against the winner in that constituency.

    Repeat this scenario across many parliamentary and state constituencies and you could end up with a minority federal or state government.

    And what if no party, coalition or pact wins the requisite of over 50% of seats won to form the government.

  4. All I want is for Najib to step down as PM after GE14.

    I think BN will still win in GE14 but with fewer Parliamentary seats. If BN loses more than 10 Parliamentary seats in GE14, it is strong enough a reason for UMNO to force Najib to relinquish his PM post as he has failed to better BN's performance in GE13.

    I am hoping Dr M to contest in Putrajaya and kick out that hopeless UMNO fella from Putrajaya.

  5. GE 14 will be decided by the Malays..and they will support UMNO...why? Money.. plain pure and simple. Malays find anything non-halal obnoxious (food drink attire) but condone and participate in corruption. They can be bought and UMNO knows this. MACC boss mentioned that they cannot investigate political donations so what is there stopping the gomen from giving bribes under the guise of political donations?

    1. Anon 1034
      We can't judge other people's action using our standard of judgement.Let me give you an example.When these BR1M recipients get their BR1M payment they will buy new handphone or treat their family to some 'luxury' restaurants such as KFC.Soon they will run out of money again and the vicious cycle is repeated again.
      Let's say a BR1M recipient get RM500 if he stock up his pile of groceries at home he can enjoy BR1M longer.That is my thinking.
      But of we look at their point of view by bringing their kids to KFC that is probably the only chance for their children to get a taste of KFC.

      Prof Kangkung

    2. sir, tat was it. u were wat u were, according to u. so u mean i cld not judge u according to me? ha..ha…wat a happy world!

    3. Pros Kangkang,

      Yet again you show the low IQ that you are famous for.

      Use a bigger and better example.

      If a 500-lb greedy woman runs out of diamonds, and her good for nothing son wants to make a softcore porn movie and buy penthouses in NYC, then who should they steal money from? BR1M cannot cover the cost.

      Yes, steal it from the rakyat and from KWAP, the money of pensioners.

      Your shallowness is quite tragic, Kangkang.

      Even animals have dignity beyond rushing for dedak.

      You? No.

      Prof Sawi


  6. Sikalang Wa manyak ingat itu DAP manyak cool sama itu Bulayu n Islam ,tapi MCA n MIC manyak kacau sikalang maa aa . Wa ingat itu Bulayu patut kasi ketepi itu MCA n MIC sikalang lia punya lagak macam sutak kasi kontrol itu hal Bulayu n Islam and UMNO manyak senyap semua .

    Kuasa angkat nampak macam atak kuasa sikalang maa aa .

  7. Bangsa Johor agak bergema 2016/2017..

    Tengok potensi dan performace 2018..

    Mungkin lebih kurang bangsa Pahang.

  8. “At the moment, from the little that I know, Penang and Perak Umno are doing a relatively good job. At the current rate, I believe it will be status quo there..”

    I don’t Umno about Umno in Penang but the Perak MB is so afraid that the state would fall to the opposition in the coming elections to the point of becoming the state’s sanitary worker. Collecting garbage from door to door. What else he would do after this? Plunge himself in a waste pool and clean up a septic tank? perhaps?

    1. Azmin did that too.Azmin pun takut kalah juga ke

      Prof Kangkung

  9. Anon 23:55

    If by your standard

    Malaysia should has already be a failed and bankcrupted state...and everybody sepatutnya memang sudah hari hari makan bubur dgn ikan masin!

    But why are we not there yet!

    Or should we wait another few more years.

    Or perhaps your're not praying hard enough!


    1. Spot on bro/sis

      Prof kangkung

    2. Dont't worry, we are heading that way soon.
      Read WORLD BANK's latest report on Malaysian
      Economy. The bubble will burst soon.

      "Latest World Bank report bad news for BN

      THE latest World Bank report shows that Malaysia’s economy is growing weaker.

      Out of the 15 Asian economies analysed in the report, Malaysia and a few others are the only ones expected to worsen.

      The World Bank forecasts that under current conditions, in 2018, Malaysia’s growth rate will lower to 5% and in 2019, decrease further to 4.8%.

      There is less than three months to go until 2018.
      As the new World Bank report describes Malaysia’s economy: “The main risks to growth arise from the policy uncertainty in the major economies, geopolitical developments and commodity price volatility.”

      While most Asian economies are rising, Malaysia’s is in decline, because it has not adapted to both global and domestic economic conditions.

      The report also singles out Malaysia as one of only two Asian economies where household debt “exceeds 70% of GDP”. Many economists have concluded that Malaysia’s debt bubble is about to explode.

      As others have correctly noted, the gross domestic product numbers and global economic rankings with which Najib is obsessed haven’t benefited Malaysians.

      As the World Bank country manager for Malaysia Farid Hadad-Zervos recently warned: “This is the fundamental question: what does GDP really mean in the daily life of Malaysians?”

      During his failed US visit, Najib said Malaysia’s 5.2% growth is “the envy of advanced economies”. To which everyone should immediately respond: “Iraq had 11% growth, Bangladesh had 7.1% growth and Ethiopia had 7.6% growth last year – should they be the envy of the advanced economies, too?”

      Instead, Malaysia is falling behind its Asian neighbours.

      As Bloomberg reported last month, Indonesians and Thais are the world’s top 10 populations where the highest numbers of millionaires are being created, increasing by 13.7% and 12.7% respectively.

      Unlike its Asian neighbours, Malaysia still has not entered either the G20 or the trillion-dollar GDP club (Barisan Nasional’s latest target is a trillion ringgit).

      According to the United Nations, the Malaysian youth unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 12.1% and rising – approximately quadruple the national unemployment rate. A recent Bank Negara survey showed that three out of four Malaysians find it difficult to raise even RM1,000 in an emergency.

      Najib is notorious for falsifying economic data in his speeches, selectively quoting reports, omitting bad economic news, and twisting the complete economic portrait of Malaysia, because he is politically unstable.

      In the recent best-seller The Rise and Fall of Nations, the author describes a particularly hilarious but disturbing story about Najib’s inability to understand the Malaysian economy:

      “On a visit to New York in October 2015, one of my colleagues asked (Najib) whether the collapse of the value of the ringgit is offering any boost to the nation’s embattled manufacturing sector. He answered by missing the point, saying the cheap ringgit is great for tourism, which can be an important contributor to growth in a country as large as Malaysia. Pressed on the manufacturing question, Najib seemed at a loss. An aide in the back of the room pitched in to help, but spoke about investing in oil and other raw materials. The crowd left with the impression that Malaysia is missing an opportunity, because the cheap currency coupled with the right reforms could supercharge Malaysian manufacturing.”

      All Malaysians should read the new World Bank report to draw their own conclusions about whether Barisan Nasional is missing additional opportunities for growth – or whether it’s more focused on protecting the elite few. – October 9, 2017.

      * Athena Athena is a reader of The Malaysian Insight.

      * This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight.

    3. Betul tu anon 21:41
      Pembangkang ni jangan bagi muka.. jangan bagi peluang... kita lepas je...
      Harga kangkung turun kenapa pulak tak puji kerajaan?

      Jho low

  10. Annie,

    I have seen many Malays who were hardcore to UMNO had gave up UMNO because of Najib.

    I think we can agree on that.

    Once the jeannie out of the bottle, it is unlikely will go back.

    UMNO saviour will be PAS. They will reduce the opposition vote somewhat against BN.

    So, I think this will sum up most of it. Forget about Tsunami or all these terms.

    What this DAP person are saying is true, Johor will be a leading battlefront between BN and Pakatan, simply because the third group PAS, is not a major player in Johor.

    This is democracy.

    But, I think we are not adopting fair practice of democracy.

    What happened to Pakatan logo.?

    Why is the Pakatan logo has not been approved until now?

    If the election is unfair, then it will be bad for the country.

    Pakatan should stick to as a coalition.

    Currently BN and PAS are playing with sentiments against DAP.

    Once DAP fully absorbed into Pakatan and Pakatan act as a coalition, then, i think Bn and PAS will lose.

  11. Anonymous @ 9 October 2017 at 21:41,

    //and everybody sepatutnya memang sudah hari hari makan bubur dgn ikan masin!//


    You must be orang kaya to think that poor people are still eating ikan masin :)

    Cheap ikan masin is now around RM10 per kg around my kampung and it is only available at the pasar pagi once a week.

    I have never seen ikan masin anywhere else in the kedais or the wet market in my kampung.

    Don't mention ikan kembung either, OK?

    My regular supplier, doesn't even bother to bring in ikan kembung any more - takes too long to sell the whole basket, about a week he said.



    1. You eat ikan masin a kilo a day do you?


  12. Gladiator,
    When I was a kid I used to eat chicken once a year.sekarang dah jemu makan ayam sbb hari hari makan ayam

    Prof Kangkung