Pakatan can't risk a "war" in Johor

So, what if they really force Osman Sapian to resign as Johor MB and the guy goes crazy and dissolve the state assembly as I put it in my last post

• Getting Osman

Yup, it sounds crazy but actually not impossible.

I don't think Putrajaya will want to risk such a scenario.

But still, if they do, then the next question should be, can Pakatan retains Johor if there is a state election there.

Currently, PH have a two third majority with 39 of the 56 seats in the state assembly. DAP have the most with 14, followed with Pribumi Bersatu (11), Amanah (9) and PKR (5).

The opposition consists 16 from BN (14 from Umno and two from MIC) as well as a single seat belonging to Pas.

On paper, it would seems that Pakatan will just steamroll over BN. After all it's just a year ago that BN got thrashed in Johor along with the rest of the country.

But then again things seem to have changed over the past year with Pakatan not doing very well as a government and things getting worse for them by the days.

The speculation over Osman's position was evidence enough of how things were not getting better or moving forward in Johor.

It's a fact that the majority of Malays are getting restless and impatient as the Pakatan government keeps stumbling along the way.

The Malays, just like others were expecting things to be better as Pakatan had promised all sort of fantastic things.

Unfortunately, as proven so far, the promises turned out to be lies.

And the Malays in particular were the ones most affected by the broken promises along with unpopular decisions made by the Pakatan government.

ICERD, Rome Statute, PTPTN, Adib's case, Tabung Haji, Civil Service and even Lynas came in mind among other things when people asked me why the Malays can't give Pakatan more time to prove themselves as a government.

Anti-ICERD rally at Mutiara Rini, JB on Nov 16 last year.

Many Malays have lost or about to lose their jobs while cost of living is  getting worse and the economy not getting any better. Even the drop of commodity prices affect the Malay small holders more than others.

There is simply no real indication that things will get better for them under Pakatan's rule.

That's the main reason why Pakatan lost in Cameron Highlands and Semenyih and maybe in Rantau too later.

I believe the Malays in Johor feel the same.

As it is, I believe that Pakatan will not find it easy to repeat their GE14 feat in Johor if there is a state election there now.

They may likely lose all the 20 Malay majority seats currently held by Pribumi Bersatu and even some of the five marginal seats of PKR.

Bear in mind that Pakatan won these seats mostly due to protest votes from among traditional Umno supporters who were angry at the party leadership prior to GE14. They may likely think differently now.

The only ones Pakatan is sure to retain are the 14 non-Malays majority seats held by DAP.

On whether BN, in particular Umno could take advantage of a state election, I believe they could.

I was on the ground during the Semenyih and the ongoing Rantau campaigns and discovered that the Umno machinery was functioning well.

In fact it seemed to be doing much better than during GE14.

Adding to that was the support given by Pas which machinery being arguably even better than Umno's in term of logistics and members' commitment.

Even MCA and MIC seemed to be improving with their members seen helping their Umno and Pas friends.

I believe it could be the same in Johor.

What my friends in Johor told me was that Datuk Hasni Mohamad who is currently leading BN there has turned out to be doing his job relatively well.

Okay, maybe he's too quiet now, but that's probably part of the strategy. More work, less talk.

The BN grassroots, especially Umno was also intact as there have been no mass exodus of members into Pakatan, in particular Pribumi Bersatu despite several defections among Umno's elected representatives and leaders in Johor.

I think Johor BN is currently capable of mobilising its members with ease if there is going to be a state election.

And I believe they could  win it too.

That's why I wrote at the start of this post that I don't think Pakatan is willing to risk pushing for Osman's resignation.

They need to avoid a "war" in Johor at all costs.

True, the federal government under Dr Mahathir had previously prevailed during a crisis which involved the state, but that was when he was leading a strong BN with a two third majority in parliament.

Indeed, now things are very different from those days.

I believe that's why the Pakatan government had even U-turned from the Rome Statute that day.

I don't think Dr Mahathir would have allowed that back then during his previous administration just because the Rulers wanted the government to reconsider its decision.

Whatever it is, let's just wait and see what is going to happen to Osman.

Maybe nothing at all.

Business as usual, I guess.