Friday 8 May 2015

Canggih analysis and tale of two by-elections

Pro-BN super blog Unspinners in its post

Majoriti Wan Azizah turun ... isu GST ke? 

argued that BN actually did well in the just concluded Permatang Pauh by-election.

It quoted an analysis issued by Jasa (Special Affairs Department of the Ministry of Communication and Multimedia)

Oleh Lokman Adam


1.  Majoriti Yang DiPerolehi PKR Merosot 8.3% Berbanding PRU13, prestasi BN meningkat 2.42%.  Buktinya :

BN: 25,369
PKR: 37,090
Maj: 11,721

PRK 2015
BN: 21,428
PKR: 30,285
Maj: 8,857

BN: -3,941
PKR: -6,805
Maj: -2,864

88.52% = 11,721 Maj
1% = 132.41 Maj

Sekiranya % sokongan PKR kekal sama seperti PRU13, PKR akan mendapat:

73% = 9,666 Maj
Maj PKR 2015 = 8,857
PKR kehilangan 809 (-8.3%)

Sekiranya % sokongan BN kekal sama seperti PRU13, BN akan mendapat

73% = 20,921
Undi sebenar =21,428
Undi BN Bertambah = +507 (+2.42%)

BN bertambah undi 507 (+2.42%)

Based on the above analysis, it was suggested that BN should not worry despite the defeat in the Permatang Pauh by-election and that it should carry on the way it is now.

But honestly, it took me quite a while to understand that analysis...I think....

Probably that's because I'm not very good in mathematics.

That's also why I prefer simple analysis such as by Helen Ang on the outcome of the Rompin by-election which I quoted in my post,

Rompin warning bell

Okay, let me try to do my own simple analysis.

Please excuse me if it's not as canggih as the Jasa's analysis or even that of Helen Ang's.

As I said, my maths are quite lousy.

I just want to compare the basic results of the two by-elections.

Bear in mind that Permatang Pauh is PKR's stronghold while Rompin is BN's stronghold.

Turnout at both by-elections was reduced to about the same, at just about 70 per cent.

So, here they are:

Permatang Pauh: PKR's majority reduced by 2,864 from GE13
BN: 21,428
PKR: 30,285
Maj: 8,857

Rompin: BN's majority reduced by 6,219 from GE13
BN: 23,796
Pas: 14,901
Maj: 8,895

Okay, based on both results, my conclusion is that, BN now is in worse shape than Pakatan.

Reduced majority is common in any by-election due to the lower turn-out but the difference was, BN lost over 6,000 majority in its stronghold, while Pakatan lost less than 3,000 majority in its stronghold.

For me, it is simple, better to lose less than 3,000 than more than 6,000.

Do note that I'm not even bothered to go into the percentages which will make it even worse for BN. Tak mau complicated sangat pun ya juga.

So, if the BN generals think they are okay based on the Jasa's analysis of the Permatang Pauh by-election, then good luck to them.

If I'm them, I would be worried as the results of these two by-elections appeared to me as a clear warning of what may come in the next general election.

If I'm them, I will from now on try my best to win back the heart and mind of the people, especially the people who support BN but pissed off by the arrogance of certain leaders and their cronies.

If I'm them, I will try not to screw-up anymore and correct everything that were wrong or even perceived to be wrong by the people.

BN has less than three years to do all that. The next general election is not that far away from now.


  1. I dare to say those penjilat are always dumb and clueless a$$lickers...

    With that result how did they see it is better for Bn? Bn lost votes even pkr did not get the support from pas lah wei...time Pr tengah kusut masai pun korang tak boleh menang? comen on lah

    1. Hahahahahaha, OMG! Seriously, my tax money is being spent on a government department that produce mind-boggling analyses to justify BN's pitiful loss and existential angst? Hahahahaaa, they should just conclude that due to various issues plaguing BN ranging from 1MDB to lack of simple explanation on GST, BN still cannot significantly reduce Pakatan's majority in Permatang Pauh even if Pakatan just nominate Wan Azizah's kipas as a candidate.

      Someone should send JASA and Lokman Adam to assist 1MDB, maybe they can come out with some highly complex analyses to refute Tun Dr. Mahathir's simple calculation about 1MDB's debt. Oh, please appoint Zamil Ibrahim and Tun Faisal as official spokesmen too. Azwanddin JMM and Rani Kulup can be supporting jokers. It'll be more fun than Maharaja Lawak Mega, hahahahahahahahha!!!

      I really hope people in UMNO and other BN parties will accept the reality and act fast.


    2. PKR sama itu PAS pula-pula galoh UMNO yang kalah lor rr .
      Wa ingat itu PKR sama PAS galoh manyak salah maa aa ,itu pasat UMNO kalah lea aa.

  2. Trust me..if PR promise to abolish gst..they surely will win next GE.

    1. Yes bro I agreed with u n without GST issue I trust B-end will end cause majority Malaysian do not believe the present gomen can lead better Malaysia.

  3. It doesn't matter how much votes they lose they will always justify it by some means or other! Its the Syiok Sendiri Mentality of UMNO leaders and Members.....

  4. annie hard truth people are really annoyed with BN. their leaders know something is wrong with 1mdb tapi semo kecut coz pentingkan jawatan seperti maslan, kj and etc. Masa tun mahathir x setuju ngan tunku dia dengan berani kritik tunjuk secara terang-terangan. Xde nyer dia nak takut hilang jawatan but with current BN leaders xleh harap. I use to support BN but now it goes to Pakatan. Why keep on voting for BN since even after losing 2/3 of the seats twice the DID NOT CHANGE! infact makin teruk.

  5. Senang saja nak faham Annie, ikut lokman adam punya analisa, walaupun PKR letak kuda kayu, 2% saja undi PKR lari ke BN.

  6. Annie, while you are hoping that BN clean up its act, the latest news suggest that its otherwise. They seems to be "cleaning up" the funds of every gov related company with the latest being Tabung Haji.We do not have to wait for another 2 years as within 1 year, the country will be left with nothing-except for some expensive diamond ring,Birkin bags and some expensive condos overseas.


    1. Haha. Well said bro. The real truth is, we the RAKYAT should do the 'cleaning up' of BN which begs the next question, where to start?

  7. BN-UMNO LEAD is living in a DREAM world as they wish ' happilly ever after. THE END"

  8. +2.42% does not win the statistics standard,that no is just needs a +24.2% just to break even.

    Find the numbersssssss

  9. BN could have won if they dont do stupid stuff like gst to bail 1mbd. recent news about tabung haji also damaging.

    even if there only 1 lot tht is actually sold. it is still at a very high price and the funds use to purchase it is for the people to perform haji ! one can only conclude this is to save 1mbd. otherwise there would have been others who would like to purchase the lot at the price as well

    tun m was right, najib is a liability for BN. he and his wife and his advisor and who is this jho low?

    BN could have won but as long as najib is there the trend will always show downwards for BN.

    and najib still appear last night like he has nothing to do with it.

    1. Najib is not the only liability. It is the company he keeps i.e the PMO guys and the rather bangang Ministers who have foot in the mouth disease. Yawn, please don't ask me to elaborate there are just too many examples even in the main stream media.

  10. Annie,”If I'm them, I will from now on try my best to win back the heart and mind of the people, especially the people who support BN but pissed off by the arrogance of certain leaders and their cronies.”

    1. The writing on the wall is too clear for all to see, Annie! Let me reiterate what I have commented previously,”Najib resigns, and all would be well’, and ends the (sad) story.

    2. TSM takes over, but he MUST revamp existing Cabinet structure with one that would support economic growth and promote unity. Brings in TRH as DPM (unprecedented it may be, but desperate times, calls for desperate measures!). Let TRH handles Finance Ministry too with MM, upgraded from Trade Minister to newly created Economic Minister portfolio. Let ARD heads new ‘Unity (& Youth) Ministry’ to heal all wounds, and close racial divide. Invite ‘Senator’ AA to head ‘Infrastructure Ministry,’ ‘Senator MM2’ as Trade Minister, and Dato’ SakmongkolAK47 as Consumer Minister. Let KJ stays as ‘Sports Minister’, but ‘as a slap to his wrist,’ gives ‘Youth’ to ARD. KJ MUST then proves his worth by elevating standard of sports in Malaysia (but pls leave Nicol on her own, but support her as best as the Ministry could do). PLEASE get rid of that Religious Ministry plus all its pawns, as religion is personal, and everyone is entitled to his and her own religions. As for other ministries, retain those that are secondary to economic growth and support unity. NO MORE ‘4th Floor, all kinds of consultants, think-tanks, GLCs, excesses, pilferages, etc.’ that would not support economic growth and promote unity.

    3. As for other UMNO VPs, task them with revitalising UMNO and NO ministerial posts whatsoever until after UMNO has “not only be seen revitalised, but should manifestly and undoubtedly be seen to be revitalised” for it to remain relevant to the Malays' and Bumiputeras' political survivability.

    Especially, for your Bro Rocky Bru,”if you could not differentiate between MRCB, Ananda Krishnan, Francis Yeoh, the (mainland) Chinese and TH, pls stop blogging; it is embarrassing to say the least. You should just stick with riding your Harley towards the Sunset, Bro.”


    No more vacancies — Putrajaya confirms hiring freeze

    PSC chairman Tan Sri Mahmood Adam told Sin Chew Daily that the government was not taking in any more people into its service, but declined to explain the rationale for the decision.

    Mahmood told the Chinese-language newspaper that 15 agencies, including the police, army and Education ministry, have already received notice of the freeze.

    He insisted, however, that agencies that needed emergency replacements could still apply to do so via the Public Service Department.

    According to Mahmood, the moratorium does not affect recruitment for vacancies that were advertised prior to the April 22 directive.

    His remarks confirm a report by whistleblower website Sarawak Report across the weekend that said Putrajaya was no longer hiring, based on a leaked copy of the memorandum from the PSC.

    Malaysia’s civil service force currently costs some RM60 billion in wages annually, accounting for a third of total government spending.

    Malaysia also has one of the highest public workers to population ratios in the world.
    See more at:

  12. Lokman Adam ni a pemuda has-been. Puad Zarkashi kesian sangat ambik la letak si Lokman jadi "pemikir" Jasa...

    1. Lokman adam & Puad zakarshi ni bad news la. Sorang badut tua dan sorang lagi badut intern kahkahkahkah

    2. Puad Zakar??????

  13. And that is just for Semenanjung Malaysia. Over in East Malaysia, it will even be worst since the demography in race and religion is about the same.

    When UMNO politicians become more religious or more racists in their rants over the years and some Govt. Napoleons also join in to please their preferred party masters, it will be always the BN component parties which suffers. When you also have UMNO politicians, macais and prepaid bloggers displaying arrogance such as not needing other races and religions votes or thinking the country can be ruled by a single religious entity or race, who will support the BN come election time? UMNO members?

    Even in a majority race or religious electoral seat, such religious and racial rants do not seem to be the factor in winning over the voter's heart and mind. Why? Why does it work in UMNO party elections but not in by or general elections? Does it show that the voters are more intelligent and wiser than party members?
    BN has to transform to stop such political absurdities which can only see it's breakup sooner or later. Already you can't hide from East Malaysians like before and restrict such plays to only Semenanjung cos of the WWW.

    Playing politics on other peoples's race or religion is hurtful espeicially if they are the victims of hate and slander. It last a long long time in the voter's mind long after even when the perpetrators have themselves forgotten what was said.

  14. More jobless youths with public service job freeze, Cuepacs warns

    KUALA LUMPUR, May 7 — Putrajaya must reverse its decision to freeze hiring for the public sector as this will discourage Malaysian youths from seeking gainful employment, the Congress of Unions of Employees in Public and Civil Services (Cuepacs) said.

    The umbrella body representing over 800,000 workers in the public sector nationwide labelled the freeze, which Putrajaya has yet to explain, “unreasonable” and warned that it could affect public support for the government.

    “We (Cuepacs) vehemently oppose this move, is this because they are in power therefore they can do this?

    “Why do youths go and study hard to obtain degrees? This move, this is shutting them out, preventing them from getting any chance at employment,” Cuepacs president Datuk Azih Muda told Malay Mail Online when contacted.

    “Every year, there are people in the public sector who retire and some even pass way, so there are indeed positions to be filled.

    “And to say that the government cannot afford to hire people...well to me that does not make sense,” Azih added.

    See more at:

  15. Annie, kiddie porn convict tu adalah produk kepimpinan Pak Sheikh Al Juburi. Tu baru sorang yg kantoi, ntah ntah banyak lagi spesis songsang Pak Sheikh Aljuburi masih berkeliaran. After this akan muncul pulak spesis spesis clueless hasil kepimpinan ahjib gor. Nasib baik badwi tak lama memimpin if not negara ni penuh dgn spesis tiba tiba terlelap.

    1. Betul, dua generasi orang muda Malaysia telah terpedaya oleh sandiwara politik dan kemaksiatan al-Juburi yang berpanjangan itu.

    2. stupid la u

    3. Kau la stupid!

  16. Hai Annie ,
    saya pengundi di P44 , seperti yang di jangka BN akan menafikan kekalahan mereka atas sebab Najib + Rosmah + GST , ok sepanjang kempen di sini BN langsung tak mengunakan poster muka Najib dan lebih pada calon , peringkat awal memang ini cara yang baik kerana sentimen meningkat kerana calon PKR kebanyakan orang dah jemu , tapi malangnya PKR keluarkan peluru di saat saat akhir dgn dakyah Najib dan Rosmah hidup mewah dan boros kena kan cukai atas rakyat dengan beban barang harga naik , hidup makin susah membuah hasil , jangan kata penyokong PAS yang konflik dengan PKR tak keluar undi orang atas pagar yang undi BN pun boleh naik marah dengan kenyataan ini kerana semua orang percaya Najib dan Rosmah hidup mewah dan boros dan rakyat yang selama ini hidup susah dipaksa bayar cukai jadi jangan marah dengan kenyataan ini dah memang fakta benar jadi Rompin dan permatang pauh adalah atas dasar undi protes , sepatutnya BN boleh menang tipis di P44 kerana memang kenyataan orang dah muak dengan keluarga Anuar tapi last minit strike dari PKR rupa orang lebih benci najib + Rosmah + GST , malah ada orang BN pun yang tak keluar mengundi . Jadi tolong sedarlah hai orang UMNO dan BN , isyarat dan tanda tanda jelas ditunjukkan dalam dua PRK ini berubah kepada yang labih baik pemimpin pemimpin yang ada skandal di buang cepat cepat jangan disimpan dan jangan perjuangan lebih kepada hamba duit jangan PRU 14 akan buat UMNO tinggal sejarah nya saja.

  17. UMNO Leaders like Zahid Hamidi should be thankful that the Tabung Haji 1MDB Scam did not breakout just before the Byelection...BN would have sunk totally in Rompin and Permatang Pauh.

  18. Father in Law flip flop.....Son In Law pun sama

    2 weeks ago baru julang buntot Najib