I thought of doing a projection on GE15 possible outcome today, but apparently a reader of this blog beat me to it,
Bendahara9 November 2022 at 02:23
Peninsular seats 165 (122 predominant malay seats)
(Minimum case scenario)
BN - 80
PH - 70
PN - 15
Others - 6/5
BN will hv an upper hand to form govt with GPS n GRS
80+ 8+9 +25 = 122
PH is in a more difficult position bcoz they only can rely on sarawak to form a federal govt. GRS n BN sabah will definitely not going for PH, even tht i dont even see GPS would want to form a govt with PH simply bcoz of PH r standing against GPS in sarawak n DAP issue
In order to force GPS to b with PH, PH hv to win 90 to 100 peninsular seats.
N to get that number i just dont see tht will be happening bcoz PH is heavily depending on the high % of the new voters/fence sitter swing voters to go to them
BN admittedly know majority of the new voters/fence sitters is not with them but they do not need to cxl the majority votes tht PH will get. They only need 10% to 15 % votes from this group apart from their traditional 40% fixed voters
(Maximum case scenario)
A disclaimer. The 165 peninsular seat will hv approximately 15 to 20 grey seat in 3 states( perak, selangor n johor) tht can tilt to either side.
If BN prediction of the Malay momentum and the new voters % to BN is higher at 30% to 40 % is correct than we will see
90/95 seat to BN (even can go up to 100 which will wipe up Bersatu totally)
60/65 to PH
5/10 to PN
And i can see BN/GRS can win up to 20 seat with sarawak 26 seat.
90 + 46 = 136
If Rafizi prediction of his campaign has created huge swings from the new voters/fence sitters and reduce the impact of the malay tsunami
90 seat to PN
65 to BN
10 to PN
65 + 42 (sabah/sarawak) = 107 short of majority n BN hv to rope in PN with their 10 seat to form the govt with 117 seat.
Or PH can convince GPS to work with them (Highly unlikely to happen but everything is possible in politics)
90 + 26 = 116
With both minimum n maximum scenarios simulation prediction taking into account
1. The % of the Malay voters BN will get
2. 1st time voters/fence sitters % out for voting
These r the only 2 main factors tht will determine the outcome of this GE15.
I cannot see BN will fare worst thn GE 2018 (79 seats even with the 1st time voters n fence sitters r rope in.
GPS decision will b the key of which BN or PH will form the Federal govt but,
I just couldn’t see PH can form a Federal Govt even they win 90 seat in Peninsular.
My readings of things actually point to almost the same conclusion.
So thanks Bendahara for his comment.
BN's projection was a bit more optimistic though.
You can read it here;
Well, I think the outcome should be somewhere in between those two sets of projections.