Well, it looks like I had given Pakatan too much credit in my initial prediction of the Johor election,
They ended up winning just 12 seats with one extra, courtesy of the DAP-backed Muda.
DAP got 10 while PKR and Amanah got one each.
Perikatan, which I thought would be completely wiped out managed to get three seats. Still, that was bad considering that they contested all 56 seats.
BN won 40 seats with Umno getting 33 while MCA and MIC managed to get four and three respectively.
Let's not even mention those who got wiped out and even lost their deposits. They were just jokers from the very start.
Actually, Muda is also a joke, except for the one seat it won in Puteri Wangsa because of the DAP people's hard work there. Without DAP's help, all Muda's six candidates would probably lose their deposits too.
Despite the landslide win, BN needs to realise that it could not afford to ease its efforts to win back voters' support.
For one thing, they cannot return back to the days of just simply putting any Tom, Dick and Harry as candidates.
Just look at the Umno stronghold of Rengit. BN won there by over 4,000 majority votes in 2018 despite all the troubles it was facing at that time because its candidate, Ayub Jamil was good. That majority was reduced to below 2,000 this time after Ayub was replaced with that supremely irritating Puad Zarkashi.
Hopefully, BN bosses took note of that.
Similarly, MCA candidates managed to beat DAP candidates in the Chinese areas of Yong Peng, Bekok, Paloh and Pekan Nanas because it managed to put good candidates there.
Working well with Umno there also helped them a lot.
Of course, the fact that Johor DAP, which was suffering from infightings, being too cocky and thought they could simply tapau all Chinese areas without much work did help MCA, to a certain extent.
MIC also almost win all the four seats it contested except for the Chinese-majority Bukit Batu as I predicted in a previous post.
Even that loss was by a mere hundred over votes.
MIC other three wins were largely thanks to their Umno friends in those Malay-majority constituencies.
Some keep harping on the low voters turnout as the reason for BN's landslide victory but I believe the outcome would still be more or less the same even if the turnout was100 percent.
Most people are just fed-up with the instability in the country since Pakatan's win in 2018.
What did they get since then?
Stupid political infightings, stagnated economy, worsening racial sentiment etc.
Now, I'm expecting the general election to be called not long after Raya.
Very hard for Ismail Sabri to resist the pressure on that after this solid BN's victory in Johor.
He also needs to check on his people before that happened if he wishes to survive in Umno.
He can't let people like Annuar Musa to continue doing nonsense stuff such as the 5G rollout flip flop or he will also be swept into the longkang.
Yup, despite the positive vibes after this Johor election, Umno still needs to continue cleaning up its house.
Otherwise it would get quite a few nasty surprises in the next general election.
People may still tolerate the so-called court cluster individuals trying to save themselves but they may not be so kind if Umno tries to impose the same bunch as candidates again.
Please Umno, as much as we can't stand Pakatan, we don't want you to repeat the same mistakes you did in 2018.
Continue to clean up your act, okay.
i think you often get your prediction far from precise is that you believe umno not to compromise to bersatu/pas stance is a weak point but the opposite seem true. my guess is that your hatred and fear towards ph/anwar return to power is much deeper than wanting to see a mighty umno versus against bersatu/pas.ReplyDelete
UMNO w/pun 2018 kalah teriq, pemimpin2 mrk tetap berbakti dn amik berat masalah kawasan masing2.. just follow fb UMNO online or Dr asraf facebook..ReplyDelete
Mrk tetap aktip mendidik pelapis2 muda dlm kerja2 amal dan gotong royong, very2 dedicated and consistent. Itu sebabnya susah senang ramai tetap sayang UMNO.
Undi awal angkatan tentera kan sapu bersih 100%. Bukan sja pemimpin2 UMNO dcemoh dhina, ade dalam PH sanggup menghina askar2 juga. Tst tst tst.
Anak2 kita unemployed Alhamdulillah dapat cari rezeki cuci tandas dnegara olang pun dhina kaw kaw.. cuci tandas bulan2 dapat Sgd7K++ pun mrk hina. Bulan2 mampu hantaq balik Malaysia sekurang2 RM4K, kan bole belanja2 bantu famili dn peniaga2 dMalaysia??
Ada otak tapi tak guna, masalah besaq nih! Agaknya lebih suka anak2 mereka nganga lopong kat rumah tunggu PH bagi RM30 seumuq hidup kut?
Islam ade istilah2 spt "carilah ilmu miskipun di negara China", ade kemudahan takyah gi jauh2 sampai China pun mrk caci. Tapi katakaloo gi US, Europe, Australia, bla bla tak pula sibuk mencaci??
Kerja asyik mengutuk, menghina, mengaibkan dan mencaci olang lain.. isssh beli cermin mayak2 tempek satu rumah mungkin baru datang keinsafan diri ya..
Biaq pi depa la. Yg penting yg menang, jgn lupa tanggungjawab masing2 ya..
TAHNIAH BN. So proud to be ahli UMNO, dulu.. sekarang dan selama2nya. Aamiin aamiin aamiin
Professor Nasi Lemak
Kita bukan caci anak kita cuci tandas di nagara orang. Kita sedih negara kita sudah lebih 60 tahun medeka. Negeri kita kaya dgn sumba2 tapi masih ada lagi rakyat kita cuci tandas negara org. Tak malu kah. Lepas itu nakDelete
salah bangsa lain. Hidup dgn bantuan brim ke atau. Tak malu. Duduk di negara beratus2 tahun anak marah yang datang satu atau dua generasi dah kaya raya.Tak malu ke.Pelajaran dan kemudahan di beri sama tapi kita memilih utk jadi papa di negeri sendiri.
Let me tell something. In 1950s jews population in us is about 3% saja tapi yg belajar kat university utk Phd 50% of all phd students in all us universities. Bapa2 mereka yg masuk us dlm 1900s semua kuli2 juga.Tapi anak dan cucu mereke jadi ceo goldman sach. Disney. etc..atau jadi senator atau advisor.Berpuluh dapat nobel prize.Ada yg buat bomb atom dan rocket.Di new york city.bapa2 mereka duduk di slum di lower manhattan.Sekarang mereke tingal di westside and eastside mahattan yg apt ratusan juta.So dont be proud dan dengki.malu lah yg kita ni masih ketinggalan. Negara cina dlm tahun 50s rakyat mati kebuluran. Dlm 40 tahun sudah jadi no 2 economi terbesar. Ini ada cabaran yg memerintah negara utk memkayakan rakyak bukan utk memkayakan diri sendiri. Tak malu kah. Nageria negeri yg kaya dgn minyak di africa tapi penuh dgn korupsi. 50% peratus dokter asing di uk datang dari nageria and negara africa.Just look at health conditions now in africa esp nigeria.Nobody are coming back when you are already senior consultants.Ada rasa malu sikit lah yg bangsa kita masih mundur dan kebalakang.
Good work by BN. Although not much need to be done since PH has already lost all their plot after their failure to govern when given the chance. Their screw up wont be that easily forgotten at least for some time. Even their wumao didnt seem to make sense in their build up for Johor PRU. They kept missing the target.ReplyDelete
Now that BN has won, it is the time to reorganize themselves. No point worrying about that before the win is in the bag.
Anyway, let see the BN start getting things moving for Johor before worrying about Federal. They did after all selecting reps for helping them at state level.
It is not a landslide win, from 40% to 43% you call as a landslide win. Get the statics right, continue to steal and plunder the national coffers.ReplyDelete
Saudara K.Thiru.jangan kelirukan diri anda.peratusan undi popular tidak relevan di PRU /PRN di Malaysia.Delete
Sistem di Malaysia mengamalkan " First -Past-The- Post " .Mana2 parti yang dapat lebih kerusi,dia akan menang.% pengundi/ undi popular hanya untuk analisa pola pengundi sahaja.
Semudah perlawanan bolasepak,pasukan jaringkan lebih GOL akan menang."Steal and Plunder the National coffers";Naratif ini DI gunakan olih PH,PKR,PEJUANG,PN,MUDA ,nampaknya kurang berkesan.(berkesan masa PRU 14 shj).Parti DAP saje kekal ,lain2 bolih cermin muka .
40 kerusi dari 56 adalah adalah sememangnya " Landslides Win" ,lebih 2/3 majority .Ini Fakta rasmi SPR.Delete
Don't need your lectures about "landslide " wins. You only a local kampung lad who just wants to be in power so that you can continue to steal and plunder the national coffers.Delete
Ayoyo Mr Thiru ... sudah lupo ko ...Delete
Itu PH gang , 22 bulan punyo kojo , sudah gunting semuo rakyat punyo poket ...
Hidup takda boleh ... mati pun takda boleh ... Ayoyo Zombi kaaa ...
Only one word for Mr.K.Thiru..."Poodah"Delete
Only one word for you another P2 mentalityDelete
Nothing wrong for kampung lad to be in power. Everyone start from somewhere.Delete
Stealing and plundering has no correlation with where they come from. It however has higher correlation with lying, hate spewing and scheming kind.
Maybe next time try to go to cast vote first and select all non kampung candidate... opps forgot already we did put them in power and they last only for 22 months after they screw up all their ideals talk and sophisticated manifesto and lied to us.
"In these trying economic times, voters want leaders who project strength and Harapan was skulking around like petulant squabbling children and made Najib an obsession which they assumed everyone shared.Delete
The fact that some people still think that people who voted for BN voted for thieves and kleptocrats shows how out of touch Harapan and its base is with the masses."
By S.Thayaparan(Malaysiakini Columnist,PH's lackey(
P/s Mr.K.Thiru,learn something from your kind la.Dont just tiru tiru opposition leader narative la,respect others peoples vote.
The Pakatan Harapan had the opportunity to redelineate the electoral boundaries to make it fairer to urban voters in terms of seats in parliament and the state assemblies but did not during the 22 months it was the federal government,so no point crying about it now.Delete
Also, the fact of the matter Anwar and Mahathir are Penang and Kedah-based people, so their parties PKR and Pejuang respectively do not have as much appeal in states south of Selangor and the Klang Valley and not on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia either.
DAP can rely on the support of the non-Malays but majority Malay PH parties such as PKR and Amanah have less traction with majority Malay voters outside urban areas and amongst majority Malay lower-income urban voters.
Also, remember that Pakatan Harapan went into GE14 as a four-party pack, including Mahathir's Bersatu, without which PH would not have won GE14 and following the split of the Azmin faction from PKR and of Bersatu from PH in February 2020, as well as other shenanigans within PKR and PH at state level, the humiliating defeat for PH in the Tanjung Piai byelection shortly before the PH government collapsed and the loss of four byelections by PH before that, all led to a loss of voter confidence in PH and also PN and Bersatu.
It will take a long time for PH to regain its momentum and it had better take account of and address the current pressing concerns of the majority of voters, which right now are related to concerns over their economic survival.
I was chatting with a former PKR field researcher who told me that most residents in PPR flats are more concerned over matters of their economic survival than issues such as corruption, cronyism, nepotism, kleptocracy and so forth which comfortably well-off urban, educated, middle-class Malaysians have the luxury of time to speak endlessly about over teh tarik, over expensive lattes in chain cafes, on social media, in pubs and bars.
If it wants to win, the Pakatan Harapan had better accept that fact and address their policies to address the concerns of these voters in constituencies which deliver the number of seats for the BN in parliament and the state assemblies.
Atok dan walauncai nya kena banyak bersyukur dengan peratusan rendah yang keluar mengundi di PRN Bangsa Johor.ReplyDelete
Tun dan Boboi kena banyak bersyukur peratusan keluar mengundi yang rendah. Jangan pula jadikan alasan peratusan keluar yang rendah BN menang 40 kerusi.
Peratusan undi Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) Johor yang rendah iaitu 54.5 peratus bukan punca utama Barisan Nasional (BN) memperoleh kemenangan mudah.
Malah jika peratusan undi sebaliknya parti tersebut kekal mendapatkan super majoriti.
Jika 90% pengundi keluar mengundi di PRN Bangsa Johor di khuatiri kesemua calon calon PejWang hilang wang deposit.
Insaf lah asas terbentuk Parti PejWang bukan atas sentimen rakyat jelata dan keadilan rakyat.
Parti PejWang diasaskan untuk selamatkan Boboi dan kroni Tun Mahathir dengan harapan bila ada satu dua kerusi dimenangi PejWang boleh lah Tun dan Boboi untuk bargin kuasa.
Budaya fitnah, mengaib olang lain sgt2 dkeji Agama Islam tau. Tgk ape jadi dgn Pejuang? TKO zero ("0") balasannya.
Tak pasai2 u nak tolong jatuhkan KitSiang plak ke nanti? Kan Kota Iskandar pun KO, byk dah menyampah dan lari mengundi BN.
Kesian la KitSiang. Dia kata katakaloo lagi seminggu PH yg sepatutnya akan menang besar. Bila google 19hb kenapa penting sangat bg Kit Siang?
Rupa2nya tarikh itu adalah hari " Lets Laugh Day!". Hari tu juga " National chocolate caramel day" tau. La aaa US tak sempat nak hantaq kat KitSiang nak bg pengundi gelak2 hapi2 dan pangkah PH ke?
Professor Nasi Lemak
Atuk tak nak tulis surat lagi ke? Tanya jerReplyDelete
Hari ini dalam sejarah pilihanraya Malaysia moden tercipta.ReplyDelete
Pengundi Melayu tolak semua Melayu yang jadi Barua DAP@ LeeKwanYew.
Barua Melayu DAP@LeeKwanYew dengan permainan fitnah jijik.
Kesemua 42 calon PEJUANG yang "hilang deposit" dalam PRN Bangsa Johor adalah (purata calon PejWang dapat undi 300 undi Melayu)
Kempen angkara hanya seekor kaum Jho Low @ Lee Kwan Yew bebas lesap sambil tengok semua pemimpin Melayu ke bangangan dan kebodohan bercakaran sesama sendiri menyebabkan semua barua barua Melayu bertuankan DAP@ LeeKwanYew melingkup selingkup lingkupnya PRN Bangsa Johor.
BN could win hands down again and again in any PRN after this, including the PRU15 if opposition continues to be led by that directionless unprincipled egotistical anwar ibrahim who thinks pkr logo is heavenly made for all Malaysians. Just dump him for better survival and further humiliation.ReplyDelete
Wak Jahit tak boleh komen kunci mulut lepas jumpa Sotan Bangsa Johor sbb kena tunggu Tun tulis surat kot....AMINReplyDelete
Surat Tun tak karang lagi...AMIN
Tun tunggu bateri dia cas penuh dolu.. AMIN
Banyak isu nak di tulis dalam sorat tu nanti..
kah kah kah..