A Pakatan-supporting friend asked me yesterday whether Anwar Ibrahim will become the prime minister after GE15.
The guy knew that I'm very BN-friendly for this election, so I assumed that he was just asking me that in jest.
Still, I don't want to risk hurting my friend's feeling, so I said it's 50:50.
I can be quite diplomatic, you see.
I told him that whatever it is Anwar needs to win in Tambun first.
Honestly, I'm quite puzzled on why he chose to contest there as it's definitely not a safe seat for him.
Voters in Tambun are roughly 70 per cent Malays, 18 per cent Chinese, 10 per cent Indians and slightly over two per cent of other ethnicities.
Incumbent Ahmad Faizal Azumu, who is now Pribumi Bersatu number two won the seat as a Pakatan candidate in 2018 with a 5,320 majority votes or just about five per cent of the over 100,000 voters.
Yup, it was not even a safe seat for a Pakatan candidate back during the height of public anger towards BN.
Despite my dislike of Anwar, I have to say that the guy was quite brave to contest in Tambun.
A bit like Khairy going to Sungai Buloh, except that Anwar decided for himself to go there while the handsome young man was sent to where he is contesting now by his Umno bosses.
I believe Anwar did it because he wanted to prove that Pakatan still have the support of many Malays despite the DAP factor.
Well, I actually think he may pull it off too.
Firstly, from what I heard the fight in Tambun has become a two-way fight between Anwar and Faizal Azumu.
The BN guy and other candidates seemed to have melted into the background.
I even heard that BN wanted to just put up a token resistance there because it doesn't want the Malay votes to be split, and thus giving an advantage to Anwar.
I suspect that if this is true, then many of those who wished to vote for BN would not turn up on polling day instead of voting for the Perikatan's candidate.
And there will be many of those.
Some, especially hardcore Umno supporters may even rebelled and vote for Pakatan in protest just to teach their party leadership a lesson for abandoning them in Tambun. That's what happened in 2018.
Anwar, on the other hand is almost certain to get the bulk of the about 28 per cent non-Malay votes and hardcore Pakatan supporters among the Malays.
So, Anwar already has more than 30 per cent of the votes in his bag.
He may get the rest of the needed votes from the fence-sitters among the Malay voters, especially the young ones who are voters for the first time.
These neutral Malays may not like Faizal Azumu too because of Pribumi Bersatu's track record of switching sides, which made the party untrustworthy.
Anyway, what could they possibly gain by voting the guy who was deposed as Perak menteri besar, when they can get themselves a possible prime minister as their elected representative in parliament.
As much as I don't like Pakatan, I believe its chances of winning GE15 is way much better than Perikatan, okay.
BN is the likely winner of GE15, as I said in my previous posts, but the coalition seemed to have given up in Tambun.
Honestly, as I'm writing this, I can't even remember the name of the BN candidate.
That's how low-key is the BN campaign in Tambun.
Considering all that, I dare say we will see Anwar in parliament again after GE15.
even he lose, wife masih ada.ReplyDelete
Others were being dropped but his family itself has occupied 3 seats at ease. Ye, you are right, his loyal wife is always there to back up. If he can't make it to the top seat this time around, he might as well admit into the nearby Tanjong Rambutan for good. Or if he really succeeded, then the wife would have to vaccant her seat to make way for another by-election. Extra taxpayers' money would need to be forked out. That is his usual tactic to play safe. Poodahhhh!Delete
Wifey seat is an insurance should he lose in Tambun. If he wins new safe seat for PKR.Delete
Aisay Annie....for once u have written a balanced piece. Kipitup. BTW how is yr paymaster's vacation in Kajang?ReplyDelete
Aisay man...why you don't say Anwar paid me to write this one?Delete
Peja wins Tambun;ReplyDelete
Shamsul wins Bagan Datok;
Razali wins Pagoh;
Hadi loses Marang.
All the above will be good for Malaysia
expect the unexpected. anwar may lose and only get 31%(18% chinese +indian 10% +3% dumb paid malays) of the vote while pn gets 44% and the balance 25% share by others competitorReplyDelete
Seriously only Morons will support corrupt BNReplyDelete
Ni Yang orang cakap "SYOK SENDIRI"..spesis Sama dengan RapijiDelete
with people like namasamaran there is not much hope for a clean govDelete
Hi Annie! What if I tell you that the Perakians are a bit special? That it is the only state where UMNO & PH can work together? Strangely, both parties get along fine. It is a well known fact that DAP has an established machinery in Perak (also financially), not PKR (only 3 seats). Since it is their territory, the former would have already done their homework to ensure AI gets the support and win.ReplyDelete
"....the guy was quite brave to contest in Tambun."ReplyDelete
If he is really that bold, rather than contesting in Tambun, he should have opted to go further north to fight against Bagan Datoh, or at least, take on his ex-protege Gombak. Putting up giant billboards mean he is the giant killer aiming to conquer. Whilst everyone was expecting this giant would skirmish with the other giant of the equal stature, instead he went on to choose to a small pijat.
Seram juga bila pikiaq Anwar as PM.. jangkaan saya maybe he wl win Tambun seat comfortably.ReplyDelete
Kenapa I arrived at this ramalan?
He will get 100% support fm the Pamelo industry Apeks.. sbb Anwar will be Harapan mereka to help market their Pameloes to all DAP and PKR Apeks in Malaysia esp during CNY.
Professor Nasi Lemak
wah! besar nya - pamelo. ada dengar kata pi South Island dengar cari "limau kasturi" - lime.Delete
PH will take the west coast belt pen, perak, sel, ns & if lucky, johor - thats controlling california, ny, florida & texas. show me the money !ReplyDelete
It's rare to come across such an honest opinion like this one in this blog but nevertheless what is written is quite a true overview of the current scenario in Tambun...ReplyDelete
Did you have a change of heart, Annie...??
Takiyudin says PN and BN will partner to form next gomen. Voting PN = Voting BNReplyDelete
kalau ah-jubo jadi PieM, my " bois sang gangs" x perlu ke Singa-pura pura atau Swizerlun. kerana satu linggit kita boleh dapat 3 kupang Sing$%, Perak PAS commissioner Ras-man Zakarliar kharbar angin kencang leader will promote a LGBT agenda, allow same-sex marriage and support the communist agenda if he is the prime minister.Delete
Nga kor ming tersangat rasis.Tersangat benci dengan PAS,tapi berkawan baik dengan PAN (serpihan PAS).ReplyDelete
Undi PAN = Undi DAP
Undi PKR = Undi DAP
Melayu elok jauhkan diri daripada PH sebab akan menaikkan DAP yang tersangat rasis dan chauvinist cina.Cukup2 lah DAP tunjuk belang 22 bulan lepas PRU 14.
# Asal Bukan DAP.
Pakatoons & Dapigs semua jangan marah.pasti korang chop kami bodoh & undi perasuah, Tapi takpe lah sebab kami pun chop kamu semua bodoh dan bangang krn percaya labun Anwar Bakal PM Tetap Pakatoons.
Annie - you’re a brave and opinionated person who should actually be our representative no matter which seat you contest. The reason why ? Because because you openly display what you believe in (eg your certainty that some thambys whacked Adib despite) so you are one thing that almost every other political chameleon is not: AUTHENTIC…. So if people vote for you they know what they’re getting. Plus you demonstrate the unique concepts of what it means to be mainstream Malaysian. You get that the Malay race is kind and loving but also sensitive. You get that everyone wants to get ahead in their lives and watch K drama or Indian cooking shows or TVB. You get that Indian and Chinese parents want their children to have access to success. You know that many people lack a role model of success unless they decide to sell cosmetics online or drive Ford Mustang. Your own life is a small demonstration of Malaysia in action. For all our faults (and we have many) we also know that there is beauty in every community.ReplyDelete
I'm here in Manjoi, which is a big part of Tambun.ReplyDelete
So far the posters of the BN parliamentary fella is scarce.
When it comes to parliamentary seat, it seems like it is just Anwar vs Peja.
BN just seem to want to fight for Manjoi but not the Tambun parliamentary seat.
This is very different during the time when Husni was here coz you can see his posters everywhere and even non political aware folks know he's running for Tambun.
This time around I don't even know which BN candidate is fighting Peja and Anwar.
Very strange. Seems to me that BN is not interested in winning Tambun.
Tak byk posters n banner sbb takde duit. Tanah2 reserve Melayu abis dcuri.. toyol2 dh gondol byk dah botak.Delete
Bayangkn klo lapat jual satu ketoi balak aje bole dpt belapa posters n banners?
Jual 1 ekar tanah pertanian dKluang pun (probable tanah haram??) pun bole lapat RM1juta tau.
Jual nasi lemak musim2 pilihanraya nak sponsor beli banners dan posters mana mampu..
BTW sesiapa rindu kat Queen of AP, bole latang taman kiara Jumaat ni.. lia djemput ceramah kempen lengan pemimpin2 DAP/PH.
Mana tau klo lapat jumpa bole whisper2 tya lia macam mana peluang nak dptkan APs?
Professor Nasi Lemak
Nothing strange but something fishy behind the scene as the hand-shake deal has already been done and dusted. Vote aganist the conspirators. The local boy should be your only choice.Delete
Now that you have mentioned it, I have noticed a similar scene in Penang. BN & PN have only scattered flags along the Tanjung area. With an exception of one picture of a GTA candidate, I have not come across any picture of the BN or PN candidate. One can only see posters of Syeerlena along the road. Likewise, Burmah Road only showcase posters of Lim Hui Ying. I have no idea of what the BN or PN candidate look like.Delete
Turnout 12,299,514 82.32%
Minus 3.1mil pengundi luar negara
Minus 2mil not bother to votes
Net 16mil voters
Projection turnout 70%
2018 - 108,000
2022 - 160,558
Malay - 69.4% - 74, 952 111,428
Chinese - 16.54. 17, 863 26,556
Indian - 10.5%. 11, 340 16,859
Others - 2.8% 3,024 4,496
Pkr Ahmad Faizal -38,661
BN Husni - 33,341
Pas Ibrahim - 14,948
Turnouts prediction net 70%
Malay 78 000
Chinese 18 589
Indian 11 801
Othera. 3 147
PN Ahmad Faizal = pas + malay 20%
14,948 + 15600 = 30, 548
PH Anwar = Chinese + indian both 95% + malay 15%
17,649 + 11211 + 11700 = 40,560
BN Aminuddin = malay 45% (base on ge14 votes) + Chinese 5% indian 5%
34320 + 930 + 590 = 35,840
GTA Rahim tahir - spoil votes from BN/PN/PH
Projection Result - Anwar majority 5.3k
The diffrences of majority is coming from the 5k fence sitters. This is what Rafizi is banking on high turnout of fence sitters tht favoring them.
Assuming all the fence stitters is voting for Anwar.
1. BN just need to get an additional 2% each from Chinese n Indian voters n Peja must b able to pull 3% of malays fence sitters from anwar voters stock to him
2. there r 20 % malay voters (15,600) who is still undecided. Projections of votes-
BN -35% 5460
PN -35%. 5460
PH -30%. 4680
BN must ensure their white voters is the same as Ge14 or to compensate the add 2% from chinese/indian voters is to get all the white voters for BN to go out n votes.
Projection tally base on above new scenarios
Peja - 36,008
Anwar - 40,800
BN - 41, 880
Verdict- Still Anwar, simply bcoz the BN machinery is not up for the job to get all the white voters out n wooing add voters from chinese n Indian will b difficults.
The last bit makes my mood sink to the bottom of Mariana Trench. I hope, when it comes to the moment of truth, it will be quite the opposite, nothing of the sort you'd written.
Anwar akan menang di Tambun,tetapi MENANG SORAK aje.Undian tetap Anwar tempat Ke 2 , sebabnya Anwar always 2nd spot.Delete
...bcoz the BN machinery is not up for the job to get all the white voters out..ReplyDelete
Mungkin u bukan fm UMNO/BN.. so not familiar how things go abt.
UMNO actif bukan sekadar pada musim2 kempen pilihanraya sja tau.. even kaw bukan under BN, ahli2 sentiasa rapat bantu membantu, amal cara gotong royong bla bla adalah perkara biasa.
Lagipun dok tempek muka besaq2 kat banner dn poster apasal? Dont tell me pengundi/penduduk kaw tak kenal siapa pemimpin mereka?? Ni pasti semejid dan solat jumaat pun tak pernah gi kut?
Tu laaa payah klo pilih calon parachute.. sapa pun tak kenal
Professor Nasi Lemak
Betul tu prof basi ... x payah pilih calon parachute...Delete
Dgr tu orang Gerik! Jgn pilih asyraf wajdi tu, orang perak pun bukan. Entah dia paham tak apa orang situ cakap.
Ketua pemuda tapi bertanding tempat sendiri pun dah 2x kalah... presiden parachute kat tempat selamat sebab dia penyokong tegar presiden tak mcm bekas ketua pemuda tuu.
Calun BN Gerik itu di atur mengikut acuan Anwar Al Juburi(Mat Syabu yg gelar macam ni).Anwar & Famili tiap2 PRU tukar tempat.Winnable candidate katanya.betul lah tu.Delete
Agenda Awani - ‘Faktor Rafizi’ Tawan dan Menang interview.ReplyDelete
1) base on the interview, clearly the almost 100 seats claim by Rafizi n Anwar is not tangible.
2) body language from Rafizi is only pointing to 80 seat so far for PH n ‘mayb as his claim’ - momentum of his campaign will get them close to 90+ ( i doubt it will happen)
3) he was so adamant about the 100 seat in his ayuh malaysia road tour tht now we know its only a bluffing game. (PH winning all in N9 n Malacca, really.)
4) PH is not getting positive feedback for them to join force with GPS n as suspected they want to push in getting as many seat possible in peninsular in order to force GPS to b with them.
5)Perak n Johor this is the 2 state that will give either BN or PN to b the biggest winner in peninsular.
Yes BN is confident getting 100 seat.Delete
On 20th Nov, PAS will dump PN and join BN to become the Government.ReplyDelete
Bossku Sabatical Leave.jika Bossku ada ,kempen Rapiji tak jalan,Anwar duduk rumah makan chipsmore.Delete
"What ever la...!"ReplyDelete
"BN menang...Rakyat senanggg..!"
Bosskuu...where are you? We miss you, so much!!!
visit him in Kajang la, he will belaja you satay :-)Delete
Not sure, Peja dances very well and can be hilarous, Who would you rather have as a guess for dinner?ReplyDelete