Wednesday 9 November 2022

GE15 outcome projections

I thought of doing a projection on GE15 possible outcome today, but apparently a reader of this blog beat me to it,

Bendahara9 November 2022 at 02:23

Peninsular seats 165 (122 predominant malay seats)
Sabah/sarawak 57

(Minimum case scenario)
Peninsular seat
BN - 80
PH - 70
PN - 15

Sabah
BN -8
GRS-9
Warisan- 6
PH -3

Sarawak
GPS -25/26
Others - 6/5

BN will hv an upper hand to form govt with GPS n GRS

80+ 8+9 +25 = 122

PH is in a more difficult position bcoz they only can rely on sarawak to form a federal govt. GRS n BN sabah will definitely not going for PH, even tht i dont even see GPS would want to form a govt with PH simply bcoz of PH r standing against GPS in sarawak n DAP issue

In order to force GPS to b with PH, PH hv to win 90 to 100 peninsular seats.

N to get that number i just dont see tht will be happening bcoz PH is heavily depending on the high % of the new voters/fence sitter swing voters to go to them

BN admittedly know majority of the new voters/fence sitters is not with them but they do not need to cxl the majority votes tht PH will get. They only need 10% to 15 % votes from this group apart from their traditional 40% fixed voters

(Maximum case scenario)

A disclaimer. The 165 peninsular seat will hv approximately 15 to 20 grey seat in 3 states( perak, selangor n johor) tht can tilt to either side.

If BN prediction of the Malay momentum and the new voters % to BN is higher at 30% to 40 % is correct than we will see
90/95 seat to BN (even can go up to 100 which will wipe up Bersatu totally)
60/65 to PH
5/10 to PN

And i can see BN/GRS can win up to 20 seat with sarawak 26 seat.

90 + 46 = 136

If Rafizi prediction of his campaign has created huge swings from the new voters/fence sitters and reduce the impact of the malay tsunami

90 seat to PN
65 to BN
10 to PN

65 + 42 (sabah/sarawak) = 107 short of majority n BN hv to rope in PN with their 10 seat to form the govt with 117 seat.

Or PH can convince GPS to work with them (Highly unlikely to happen but everything is possible in politics)

90 + 26 = 116

Conclusions

With both minimum n maximum scenarios simulation prediction taking into account

1. The % of the Malay voters BN will get
2. 1st time voters/fence sitters % out for voting

These r the only 2 main factors tht will determine the outcome of this GE15.

I cannot see BN will fare worst thn GE 2018 (79 seats even with the 1st time voters n fence sitters r rope in.

GPS decision will b the key of which BN or PH will form the Federal govt but,

I just couldn’t see PH can form a Federal Govt even they win 90 seat in Peninsular.

My readings of things actually point to almost the same conclusion.

So thanks Bendahara for his comment.

BN's projection was a bit more optimistic though.

You can read it here;

Ahmad Maslan tells why BN confident of winning GE15

excerpts;

Ahmad said GPS leaders were appreciative of BN’s decision to stay out of Sarawak.

“We have also heard from them that they are confident of winning a minimum of 25 seats,” he said. “If you add that to our 112 seats, we can form a stable government.”

“We will win a majority along with GPS. That is the plan.”

He said the projection did not include seats to be won by Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, which has an electoral pact with BN.

Well, I think the outcome should be somewhere in between those two sets of projections.

37 comments:

  1. Yes betul. BN on the way to form government and Zahid will be come PM.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sabah pasti ramai penduduk asal sana tetap akan kenang jasa BN..

    Sblum BN masuk, lebuhraya BKI/SDK/TWU kreta proton pun takleh lalu.. kena bawa naik lori. Jalan tanah lumpoq aje.

    Nak cross SgKinabatangan Segama masih pakai cable feri. Eh rata2 sungai sama .. SgMas k Temenggong pun pakai cable feri.

    Yg kaya2 takpe la, depa naik kapalterbang. Airport mcam padang sukan sekolah2 kebangsaan aje.

    Kaw pendalaman lain tu mmg KO. Sakit demam golongan miskin pasrah kira gol masuk kubuq sbb, emergencies kena naik helekopter gi sepital.

    Jalan2 lain tu klo banjir, putus hilang.. nak teruskan kena redah air sampai kdada.

    Nah, nak buat pan borneo highway pun PH sedayanya cuba sekat.. taktau skrg progress cam mana.

    Bung very2 kuat sana sbb dia bangunkn Kinabatangan.. dulu gaji olang kampung sekadar RM270 sbulan, skrg mrk dh jadi pekebun2 kecil ladang.. pendapatan puluham ribu sebulan.

    Tuh Shafie..dia dok merepet apa taktau. Cuba gi Semporna kawasan dia tengok? Budak2 pun ada yg tak pernah masuk sekolah.. dok main sampan aje kat rumah atas air mereka. Klo Sempurna pun jaga tak semporna. Kekeke

    Hai.. ayuh orang2 Sabah. Undi BN utk masa depan yg lebih gemilang.

    Professor Nasi Lemak

    Sblum BN masuk, lebuhraya BKI/SDK/TWU kreta proton pun takleh lalu.. kena bawa naik lori. Jalan tanah lumpoq aje.

    Nak cross SgKinabatangan Segama masih pakai cable feri. Airport mcam padang sukan sekolah2 kebangsaan aje.

    Kaw pendalaman lain tu mmg KO. Sakit demam golongan miskin pasrah kira gol masuk kubuq sbb, emergencies kena naik helekopter gi sepital.

    Jalan2 lain tu klo banjir, putus hilang.. nak teruskan kena redah air sampai kdada.

    Nah, nak buat pan borneo highway pun PH sedayanya cuba sekat.. taktau skrg progress cam mana.

    Bung very2 kuat sana sbb dia bangunkn Kinabatangan.. dulu gaji olang kampung sekadar RM270 sbulan, skrg mrk dh jadi pekebun2 kecil ladang.. pendapatan puluham ribu sebulan.

    Tuh Shafie..dia dok merepet apa taktau. Cuba gi Semporna kawasan dia tengok? Budak2 pun ada yg tak pernah masuk sekolah.. dok main sampan aje kat rumah atas air mereka. Klo Sempurna pun jaga tak semporna. Kekeke

    Hai.. ayuh orang2 Sabah. Undi BN utk masa depan yg lebih gemilang bah.

    Professor Nasi Lemak

    ReplyDelete
  3. Reading too much into research or polls, online or from research houses is like trying to look into the future from the eyes of a fortune teller or snake oil salesman. It discourages someone from get up and doing something of value. All established think tanks and online polls in the US predicted Hillary Clinton would win landslide against Trump. She was elated and prepared to move into White House. And then strange thing happened. The thing is ballot papers are still sealed in boxes and unmarked at SPR and our index fingers are still fresh and clean. They are not stained with blue ink like the one you saw on visibly shaken Atuk’s finger at Istana Negara when he lifted a booklet to reading in swearing-in ceremony to become Prime Minister. It is not done until it is done. It is over until it is over. There are 9 days to go. To persuade to cajole and to convince people. Don’t waste it!

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  4. so who would be the pm? the bn sabri or the pn sabri?

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  5. La aaaa... Sarawak PN nak masuk bertanding juga ke? Komuniti Iban sana pasti masih mengingati penghinaan terhadap kaum itu oleh Presiden PAS Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.
    Dia pernah kata slepas PRK Batang Ai pada April 2009 yg pengundi Iban berpihak kpd BN krn mrk masih memakai cawat!!!

    Celopar benar mulut dia ni. Ketinggalan zaman betoi Tok Haji ni.

    Dia tak sedaq ke sejak thn 1960s pun pelajar2 Sarawak dh ada belajaq kat English stream schools spt MCKK dn TKC..

    Harini Hollywood pun mereka dah tembus masuk! Ngada2 betoi.

    Professor Nasi Lemak

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  6. Back in 2018, the momentum and wind of change blowing so strong which really hard to resist and really hard to ignore. So change really did take place. Now it feels different. No wind whatsoever. Not even a fart. So it probably return to default setting.

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  7. I don’t know but having a paid leave on your birthday every year is hard to resist

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Menang sorak kampung tergadai...
      You'll enjoy but your children or grandchildren will pay for it down the line.

      Delete
  8. I don’t know but having tertiary education fees exempted for the poor and B40 group is hard to resist too

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  9. I don’t know but having a government who is very strong and stable and able to resist pressure from fringe group who wanted to deport a world famous preacher to his country of origin is really hard to resist too

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  10. As you long as you get paid your RM4, don't worry : ) ehhhhhh no Adib ke? Cepat laaaaaa Annie ooooooiiiiiii........

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  11. The projections are about there. PH was ruled out by GPS, yet PH needs GPS to form Govt.Why is it so hard for AI and LGE to bite the bullets and apologised for their harsh words on Sarawak when PH was the Govt? Same with LGE, who do not want to apologise to the Chinese community for his "victimisation" of TAR Uni ,when so many of TARC alumnis voted for them in GE14. The tagline of "one vote for BN is a vote for Zahid " doesn't hold waters to any thinking person. If PH thinks that Zahid is the culprit they need to get rid of, why didn't Anwar himself go to Bagan Datuk and finish him off? I remembered Lee San Choon took the gamble and took on Chen Man Hin in Seremban those days. Once you kill off the head, the rest will be directionless or Anwar himself and/or his people doesn't have the confidence to take on Zahid directly? Smell of a deal in play between AI and Zahid .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PM: Satu undi untuk PH, satu undi untuk DAP

      Delete
    2. Unknown9 November 2022 at 13:02
      "bois and gangs" dah pi cuci taihik Sulok kat Sabah bila
      SULTAN OF SULU
      MUEDZUL LAIL TAN KIRAM dapat klim Sabah - mereka Sabahan rejoice sampai

      Delete
    3. Satu undi untuk BN, Satu undi untuk Zahid Hamidi.

      Delete
  12. To win parliamentary seats are not easy. Some seats considered safe and not so safe in others. What considered a safe seat to one party would be considered as a marginal seat or a swing seat or a killer seat to other parties. Vice versa. It always work both ways.

    But decisions taken by party leaders on both side of the divide in choosing candidates to contest in parliamentary seats baffled me. Safe seats which always considered as traditionally winning seats for one party could turn into swing seats if they chose wrong candidates. For example if BN put the incumbents contesting in Ketereh, Pasir Salak, Arau, Padang Besar, Tanjung Karang, and a local leader for Gerik, around 10 seats would already in the bag for BN. Those are considered safe seats. Shoe-in seats for BN.

    But instead for unknown reason or best known for President himself the incumbents are unceremoniously dropped to make way for little known leaders and parachute candidates who of course will struggle to win votes which resulted the seats could change from safe seats to swing seats. How naive. From sure-win seats turn to not-so-sure.

    The other side too is not much different. Axing a candidate who delivered Sungai Buloh seat to the party with very large majority and having won the seat for the past 3 GE to make way to a newcomer. It’s perplexing to say the least. What makes it even more worrying is that he is up against an Umno heavyweight. No longer a safe seat. Kerusi yang sure menang dah la tak banyak tapi yang ada nak di gadai pula..That is not a recipe of winning a seat. Another one is Batu. Everyone knows Tian Chua is very popular in Batu and having won Batu seats many times so Batu is considered safe seat for the opposition but yet they choose someone else. Somebody who can wait. Indeed he has all the time in this world considering his age. But yet he choose to contest. I don’t know what you the party’s strategy of fielding him there.

    A young candidate who still has a lot of time and future ahead of him. He should make way to TC as a sign of respect and putting party unity first. You could show your mantle later on by learning the ropes first and gained experience as party machinery workers. At the same time showing support and loyalty for the party struggle. This is the way to gain confidence and respect from everyone and you will be rewarded in due time for your patient. His time will come.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At the age of 22 the current batu mp earns ~20+k a month for ~4 yrs. That's not easy to walk away from. The question is, is a 22 yr old who has never held a job in his life (& hence not much life experiences) the right ppl's representative? Padan muka TC, u make a mockery of the system by 'appointing' a proxy candidate. Now u gigit jari!

      Delete
    2. Some said Anwar is a forgiving person, but I think otherwise. He is nothing but a vindictive narcissist who can't bear any form of criticisms and never let things go. Up till today, blaming others for his failure is still his forte. Harbouring and holding grudges for some imagined wrongs against TC and Srasa by leaving them out in the cold was truly kiasu and no gentleman. In comparison with Mahathir, he is no match at all in this regard. I just hope that TC will emerge victorious and can't wait to see PKR's reaction to that. At the same time, pray that Anwar will get "beheaded" alongside his spouse so as to allow younger generation to take over and turn over a new leaf for the betterment of PKR.

      Delete
  13. i hope PH & BN can work together for a super majority. GPS can go suck balls. What kind of democracy is that if only one party can run in sarawak ?

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    Replies
    1. Yes hope Pen Mal parties get majority lead the country without gps. We do not need gps. We can use glonass or beidou.

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  14. SAYA DARI "AIR HITAM" BERKERJA DI KLCC TINGGAL DI KELANA JAYA.

    #UNDI LAH - PAKATAN PH Sheikh Umar Bagharib Ali

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Percaya lah. S umar akan kalah.silap hari hilang deposit.

      Delete
  15. PH - Perlis 3 , Kedah 12 Penang 13 Perak 20 Selangor 22 KL + Putrajaya 12 Negeri Sembilan 6 Melaka 4 Johor 22 Pahang 8 Terengganu 4 Kelantan 4 Sarawak 15 Sabah 13 Labuan 1 . That’s what the extra 5 million plus voters will make sure .

    We can revisit this on day after polling and see if my projections is correct . Thanks to Undi 18 and automatic voters registration, all can vote now without fear of favour . Sarawak has extra 51% voters and not controlled by the GPS longhouse chief . The old dies but the young keep on becoming 18 . I worked there and I know the 18-39 mentality . Very ant establishment. Why Sarawak rushed the state elections before automatic voter registration snd undi18 if not scared of nee voters and same in Sarawak at increase of 57%?and major seismic changes and BN GRS will be history in Sabah

    PH will win 159 out of 222 or more . BN and PN will be wiped out and GTA poof like a ballon .

    That’s what is worrying BN PN GTA GPS GRS .

    Remember GPS won big in Sarawak state elections when their popular vote decreased because Chinese boycotted the elections band same happened in Melaka and Johor . It’s not happening this time and spoke to allot and they say the will turn rain or shine . Turnout will be very much better than GE14 . PAS BN Betsatu voters in Malay hinterland and antara vaxxers . Death toll was high and for 1 reported death , 5 goes unreported . Cannot replace the dead and the young keep on becoming 18!. The Age 18-39 are from the Google cage and pray to tohan Google because all information they want , Google gives them freely and with censorship.

    BN PN talks about unity of the race and vote Malay candidates but who to vote and PH is a better choice and they have the highest number of Malay Muslim candidates.

    Malays always like to be on the winning side and they chooses PH in GE14 because they knew PH will win and the feeling is same in GE15. Spoke to a lot of Malays and that’s their opinion, to secure Malay power is to vote PH . BN and PN are too disunited and full of unsavoury characters and does not make sense voting for them , when they are destined to lose.

    Only way to make sure that never again another Sheraton move happens again is to make sure that PH had majority of Malay MPs and to make sure is to vote PH .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unsavoury characters are everywhere, not only can be identified in BN and PN, especially when it comes to power grab, more so if it strikes once in a lifetime. In fact, Sheraton Move wasn't unprecedented in our political history. Should you are old enough to recall that appalling and pretty much succeeded Langkah 16 Sept 08, SM was actually just a copy-paste of it which originated from a pathological egotist and liar by the name of Anwar. So, even if a simple majority is achieved later, I believe, there will be another langkah akin to SM awaits us. People are now getting so used to the scheming of things . Well, not optimistic to expect any sort of stability in the near future. As usual, they play, we pray.

      Delete
    2. Anon 9:16
      U sharing wet dream with Rapiji Rapusi .dont forget to set ur alarm clock at 7am 20th of November.

      Delete
  16. Anon 10Nov22 @03:29

    Ketaq juga bila dengaq seruan undilah Pakatan PH.

    Moh kita sama2 pakat hayati dan baca sumbangan PH yg dberi dlm tempoh masa hanya 22bulan mereka memerintah negala?

    Muhyiddin Dan Mahathir Punca Kewangan Negara Tenat – Isham Jalil https://umno-online.my/2022/02/22/muhyiddin-dan-mahathir-punca-kewangan-negara-tenat-isham-jalil/

    Professor Nasi Lemak

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. dah jemu selera mata sendiri. 60 tahun BiN memerintah, anak Sabahan pakai jambatan gantung tali berhayung ke SJK cina. itu pun nasib british bikin zaman dia.

      Delete
  17. I believe the prediction is true.. BN fortress is the malay rural seats and I dont think PH can win there. This GE will result in BN winning with good majority ( with support from Sabah and Sarawak)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current Reality.
      Pakatoons lackeys try very hard to deny this reality

      Delete
  18. It is amazing in this forum, the pro BN supporter are screaming how bad the PH PM. None have yet to endorse Zahid as PM to the malay voters. This is a real, Zahid will be PM when BN wins. Why the pro BN supporters are not screaming how good zahid will be as PM. Forget about abah, he cause hell to malaysian while he was PM.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ismail Sabry will be PM if BN win.
      Not Zahid.(Zahid as PM only narrative by Pakatoons, they run out if idea )

      Delete
    2. Anon 15:21
      Saudara/i .U ni golongan Generasi apa.?Jika Generasi Boomers pasti sudah tahu selok belok politik Brader Anwar @ Calun Tetap PM Pakatan Rakyat.Kenapa banyak pihak cuba sedaya upaya halang brader Anwar daripada menjadi PM.Ada sebab Anwar di gelar Sesumpah/Chameleon .
      Mendiang Karpal Singh pernah cakap didalam Parlimen "Anwar Ibrahim mesti Bertaubat".
      Tapi pabila brader Anwar di buang UMNO,Pihak Pembangkang kutip,dia terus jadi suci bersih.
      Kalaupun PH menang PRU 15,YDP Agung pasti minta PH beri nama lain sebagai PM.(maybe rezki Mat Syabu)

      Delete
    3. Still no one saying anything to praise zahid as PM. The most powerful person in UMNO. Please don't be naive, when you are at the doorstep to the PM ship, you will take it. Umno has proven backtracking in Johor with the MB. The narative is real with zahid. He is ruthless as you can see how the drop all his opposition. BN manifesto was presented zahid in the manner of pmship, no poster boy around him. Anwar has paid his due. Anwar don't have a 2 million dollar watch on his hand. Only umno warlord fear of Anwar, that's is what the country need.

      Delete
    4. Praising a person who still fetters by multiple corruption charges is beyond one's sanity. To say the least, he is just lucky to be elected as UMNO president at the right timing, otherwise his fate would have turned out differently. Nobody would want to take in a potential suspect to rule over us. Like 2 peas in a pod, he is as good as his best buddy, AI. They are fraternal twins that emit the same behavioral clues as liars. No one gives a damn about AI's scandalous past if he cares to stop boasting and self-praising. The more of these exaggerated sense of self-importance remarks of him, the more I find him repulsive and phoney. Who knows whether or not he has a 2M $ watch as it can be deliberately obscured from surfacing. Well, talking about watch, can he update us where exactly his Omega is? Mind you, don't get too carried away by all these superficial politicians. Nobody is fearing of a father of all traitors anyway, as they are all just interested to be seated on the throne, by any possible means.

      Delete
  19. The combination of PH and BN will gather around 80 to 90 seats. They both will lose more than half of the Malay seats they won in GE14. Non PH and BN will form the next Federal Government. GE15 is a Malay Tsunamy protesting Zahid, Anwar and DAP.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Minimum or maximum case scenario:
    "BN menang...rakyat senanggg...!"
    100% sure one...!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Haiyaa. Sejak PH amik alih kerajaan kan keadaan ekonomi ramai kaum Melayu Bumiputa mrk merudumkan?

    1. Kakitgn kerajaan yg kena buang kerja majoriti Melayu/Bumiputra

    2. Felda, Petani, Nelayan majoriti Melayu/Bumiputra

    3. Wang simpanan dn pelaburan dlm PNB, Tabung2 Amanah spt Tabung Haji, Tentera, Pesara2, guru2 bla bla majoriti akaun Melayu/Bumiputra. EPF? Ramai pencarum Melayu/Bumiputra

    4. Aset2 oso GLC yg kena lelong dn saham merudum.. % besar invested by Tabung2 Amanah spt PNB, Tabung Haji dn EPF etc etc dividend merudum sampai hari ini tau.

    5. Golongan miskin majoriti pun Melayu/Bumiputra juga

    Nah.. pemegang akaun PNB sja dekat 14m olang. Campoq bini, anak cucu menantu mereka lagi. Cuba congak dn guna logik, agaknya berapa juta yg Melayu/Bumiputra telah kena pee pee poo poo sabit dgn polisi pentadbiran PH dulu??

    Cuba agak2 guna otak sikit. Apakah GE15 mereka2 ini AKAN undi PH dan parti2 serpihan PH dulu spt PN, Pejuang, Warisan bla bla??

    Peribahasa Melayu "Pisang takkan berbuah dua kali". Omputih plak "Once bitten twice shy"..

    Professor Nasi Lemak

    ReplyDelete