This is how I see it,
Route One: Pas to get either Umno to join Perikatan or Pribumi Bersatu to join Muafakat.
This is the best option for Pas and it is working on it.
It is the best for Pas because the party will be the real winner when Umno needs to make concessions to accommodate Pribumi Bersatu in a coalition.
Umno will be weaker and Pas in the long run will emerge as the dominant Malay party.
You see, Pas doesn't have to make such concessions.
Pribumi Bersatu, being a fresh Umno's splinter party will not ask to be given seats in Pas areas. They would want those of Umno's.
Well, Pas won't even give them anyway even if they ask. "What is mine is mine, what is Umno's is yours," Pas would tell Pribumi Bersatu.
Pas' machinery doesn't even have to work for Pribumi Bersatu which doesn't even have real grassroots.
Umno will have to do that.
Imagine, how humiliating it is for Umno people having to campaign for Pribumi Bersatu candidates who whacked them like crazy before GE14, after GE14 and even now,
You all should know what they called Umno people.
Worst is for Umno people whose MP or Adun defected to Pribumi Bersatu when their party was in the longkang after GE14.
They now have to campaign again for those people who betrayed them.
If they are forced to do it, I think these Umno people will in the end quit the party.
They may even join Pas.
So, Umno will be weaker and Pas will be stronger.
In the end Pas can take over the whole Malay Muslims perpaduan ummah thingy.
Yup, that's the best for them alright.
If Pas is successful to achieve this it will indeed be 100 per cent the winner. It will ride the coming Malay Muslim tsunami, be part of the new government, and in the end be the dominant party in an all powerful Malay Muslim coalition.
The chances of it managing this is however, in my opinion is only about 20 per cent, at best.
Umno number one and two leaders seemed very determined for their party not to give anymore face to Pribumi Bersatu and the majority of Umno people seemed to support them.
Route Two: Pas to break ties with Umno and joins Pribumi Bersatu in Perikatan
This route is seen by many to be where Pas is going at the moment because of noises made by party leaders like Takiyuddin and to a certain extent Hadi.
It is however the worst of Pas options.
With that coalition, they will not stand a chance of winning anything in most parts of the country except for maybe in their strongholds in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.
In fact, they will even have to face a resurgent Umno in those strongholds.
If Umno could do something fresh like putting Mat Hasan as its PM candidate as I suggested, Pas may even lose those strongholds.
The Malays actually do like fresh good leaders.
Do take note that BN almost defeated Pas in Kelantan in GE11 in 2004 because Pak Lah was at that time seen as fresh and good compared to Dr Mahathir who stepped down the previous year.
Pas will also be over stretched if it has to take the burden of supporting Pribumi Bersatu which actually doesn't have any real machinery or grassroots support.
And in return, the chances of Pribumi Bersatu taking the fight to Umno and its BN allies would be about the same as Mat Sabu winning the most handsome Malaysian man award.
The most they could do is to take some (which I believe not many) votes off Umno/BN for the benefits of Pakatan.
Yes, this is Pas' option that Pakatan certainly like the most because it potentially could divide the Malay vote bank again like in GE14.
However, things are different now. No more tears of sympathy for Dr Mahathir as it was in GE14 which was what really devastated Umno/BN.
No more Umno members and supporters voting for Pas because they were angry with the Umno leadership but couldn't make themselves to vote Pakatan.
Umno, if it do the right things, could this time just steamroll over Pas, Pribumi Bersatu and their mosquitoes allies.
If DAP can create a Chinese tsunami, I think Umno could also create a Malay tsunami on its own.
Again, as I said, that provided if Umno makes the right moves. If it still want to be stupid like before GE14, then they will end up in the longkang again.
Still, I believe Pas leaders could see these likely scenarios and will try to avoid going into GE15 along this second route.
Yes, they are now making all kind of noises to dummy Umno into believing that they are willing to pull out of Muafakat in favour of Perikatan but the chances of that happening is I think just between 20 and 30 per cent.
The chances of Pas being successful as a member of Perikatan is of course zero per cent.
Route Three: Pas (after making all kind of noises) remains an ally of Umno in Muafakat and quits Perikatan
This is Pas' back up option to Route One.
If it can't convince Umno to give face to Pribumi Bersatu, this would be the better route for them.
They could safeguard their strongholds in the Malay states and may even have a chance of getting some seats elsewhere as Umno and its BN allies concentrate on battling Pakatan and crushing Pribumi Bersatu in areas Pas has no chance of winning.
If victorious, they will get to be part of the new government and push further some of their supposedly Islamic agenda.
It's definitely better than sinking with Pribumi Bersatu if they choose Route Two.
The only drawback for Pas to go along this Route Three is that they will not get to take over from Umno being the dominant Malay party.
Pas is still 80 per cent a winner if it chooses this route.
At the moment, the chances of them doing so, I think, is between 70 and 80 per cent.
Well, Umno may just get tired of their current noises and tells them to go fly kite with Pribumi Bersatu.
PAS tidak akan ke mana. Yakin dan Percayalah, Annie
ReplyDeleteWhat is Zahid waiting for, to be toppled by pro-Bersatu forces or awaiting the outcome of negotiations with the opposition?
DeleteZahid should push NOW for the fall of PN and the formation of a caretaker unity government.
Zahid is losing precious time. Learn the painful lesson of Anwar.
Be decisive!
Sack those out to destroy you and the party before they destroy the party. It's either you go or they go.
Zahid must move fast by having UMNO’s presidential council to act to require UMNO minsters to quit the cabinet.
Don't make the same mistake as PKR and wait too long.
Anwar is weak and stupid.
His party suffered.
If Zahid waits, Umno becomes a slave party of Bersatu.
If he can't do it, go on leave and let Tok Mat sort out Umno.
Annie , do you know Pas is loosing support everywhere especially Kelantan. Factor that in your future writing .
DeleteAnnie should aware that PKR is getting sympathy for all the worst things thrown on them . Generally PH looks favorite to win great in GE15.
DeleteOnly hardcore Pas supporter will vote Pas..and that's it. Whereas Umno has bigger opportunity to appeal to the mass voters. Umno has great track record that can spear the country's economy to greater heights as before. What has Pas? They can't even bring Kelantan which they ruled for more than 20 years to anywhere. No sane person going to vote for Pas.Just idiots
ReplyDeleteKelate has the highest rates of porn addiction, incest, and underage sex in Malaysia.
DeleteAnd no clean drinking water for "40 years".
Undi PAS, lah!
Route 1 or 2 ... most likely.
ReplyDeleteRoute 3 ... nahhh
Pas is having fun riding a horse by the name of Bunga ... ie crazy horse lah .
Waghih
ROUTE 1 - IMPOSSIBLE.
DeleteROUTE 2 - Quite likely. I think Umno should go for this one, and give 100% effort to Terengganu, Kedah, Kelate.
You don't need to win state gomen, you need to win MP seats in these states. Aim for around 10 to 12 from these 3 states. Cukup.
ROUTE 3 - Wahhhhhh. "Sudah diludah dijilat balik" kow kow for PAS. They will have to crawl to big brother on their knees. Beg for forgiveness. But, may happen. Moo should NOT see Hadi as an ally. He is a proven snake. Can easily switch to Umno at the last minute.
Betoi tu herman adnan. Buktinya Kelantan
ReplyDeleteDAP pun mrk bole bersatu.. asalkn sapa sja bole bagi makan, kanan kiri depan belakang mereka akan wokay wan.
Professor Nasi Lemak
best thing for msia is a strong umno ex zahid/najib + PH. A proper well represented 2/3 majority investors like. in fact all the overtures tsmynis making to gerakans, mic, mca solves a problem for umno. the 64k question is who will be PM in that pact ? dsai or hasan ?
ReplyDeletepas is exactly what kuli described them to be, a prostitute. in fact its an insult to the oldest profession to be equated to them
Nazri Aziz hits the bullseye:
ReplyDelete“Bersatu also has no true cause. All sorts of people belong to it. There are PKR traitors, there are Umno traitors, and there are also original Bersatu traitors,” he said as reported by Sinar Harian today.
Kih kih kih.
So, so true.
PAS is hard pressed going to make another political blunder/miscalculation after choosing to partner Bersatu over UMNO. Before this they already made a blunder. In GE14 they talked big and chose to go it alone and contest every seat hoping to be the kingmaker. It backfired badly and Pas managed only to win a paltry 17 parliamentary seats.
ReplyDeleteTheir boss track record of political miscalculation and making blunder after blunder is legendary. He joked Mahathir could open 1Malaysia clinic after GE-14 and Pas could became part of new government. Nik Abduh declared Atuk had lost his fang to mount another shot at prime ministership. Well like people say the rest is history. Now they chose good-for-nothing Bersatu over more proven warhorse Umno.
They clearly in for short term gain rather long term goal. Yes they are going to enter the GE as part of government rather than opposition but Bersatu has NO GRASSROOT APPEAL. The party is a joke. Their people are all interested in positions after winning their seats on someone’s else hard works, sweats and tears. Zero seat in Kelantan and Terengganu in last GE. It shows the party is never popular, not going to be popular among the conservative Malays.
If PAS choose to turn their back over MN, it only makes Umno’s job easier. It could open the door for Umno to form partnership with other political parties parties such as PKR and DAP. Especially DAP because the party which strongly backed by ethnic Chinese need to part of government. Any type of government. Minority or majority. It also means that Umno no longer need to pulling their hair negotiating seats with Pas and they can contest ALL their traditional seats they used to as part BN.
Even MCA and MIC rely on Malay support to win their seats so seats negotiation/distribution among them will become less troublesome since the template is already there. The same template they so used to ever since the formation of BN. If MCA/MIC were to have any chance of winning their seats, they MUST contest under BN banner and not behaving like Pas. No rocket science. They can make the decision immediately.
Umno actually don’t need Pas and Bersatu to win general elections. Umno is proven strong formidable warhorse. The party itself is the most successful political party ever formed in Malaysia history. No other party as succesful, as wealthy, as strong, as formidable, has wide appeal as Umno.
Even in last GE where they lost the government for the first time in history, they managed to win the most seats than any other political parties. The party has enviable track records of win big. No other political parties come close. They could win all the seats they choose to contest with their own personal power and strength. Other political parties in BN draw their appeals from Umno’s strength.
Court cluster or not, when the time comes, these tainted leaders could easily win their seats. So easy like strolling in the park with both hands in pocket. When parliament dissolves, when there’s no longer government, these court clusters will be the most fearsome figures shifting balance and support. Unless Abah kau put them in jail. Can you say the same to those Bersatu frogs? Even Jemin is looking for other seat to contest to salvage his political career.
Umno as party have strong backing from conservative Malays. Even Pas risks of losing their stronghold of Kelantan and Terengganu by choosing to partner Bersatu. There are people in Bersatu where the majority Malays are not feeling comfortable to give their votes. Pas clearly chose short term gain rather than long time goal. Partnering Umno can make Pas part of government forever but partnering Bersatu will make Pas become the opposition forever.
MIC just backed PN.
DeleteWho cares?
MIC is party of crooked gangsters.
Our thambi2 and aney2 would be better off with PKR or even DAP.
Route Four: Pas wait and see which party/coalition emerge victorious. Pas will then joined the winning team for it is much logical move and convenient for them. Choosing the wrong horse may jeopardise their position much worse relecting their poor judgement. Why take a difficult route when you know one that is easy and beneficial.
ReplyDeleteBut they are burning bridges already.
DeleteIf the next gomen is Umno-PKR-DAP-East Mal parties, they are all anti-PAS.
No room.
Bridge burning...
Delete"Bersatu melantik 12 wakil dalam Jawatankuasa Permesyuaratan Bersatu-PAS bagi merangka strategi menghadapi pilihan raya umum ke-15, maklum Setiausaha Agungnya Hamzah Zainudin.
Bersatu juga, kata Hamzah akan terus memperkukuh kerjasama antara anggota Perikatan Nasional iaitu PAS, Star, SAPP dan Gerakan.
Setiausaha Agung Bersatu itu juga dipetik Bernama berkata partinya sedia membantu GPS pada Pilihan Raya Dewan Undangan Negeri Sarawak yang akan datang."
Give up lah, UMNO.
PUS is committing zina with Parti Bunga.
But can to mosquitoes kill an elephant?
The problem with umno are the desperado like zahid.. Umno should ask zahid to stepdown and replace by Mat Hassan.. If zahid still umno president for pru15, umno & BN will lost pru15..
ReplyDeleteCurrently umno act like a cry baby but Pas shows maturity.. Malay will vote for Pas rather than Umno
Malays will always vote for UMNO.
DeleteThe reason PH won in PRU14 is because around 30% of UMNO voters swung because of Madey factor.
These will swing back to UMNO, not PH.
PAS can hang on in Kelantanistan, maybe.
The performance of PAS ministers has been terrible, so I think fence-sitters won't go that way.
Once again Pas has shown its incredible talent of picking the wrong partner to go to bed with. A party that proclaims to champion Islamic ideals once again siding with traitors, sexual deviant, evangelists, and whatnot.
ReplyDeleteUMNO lost GE14 with Najib no1 and Zahid no2. For GE15, most likely Zahid is no1 play the role of no2, with Najib still behaving as no1. Voters may shun UMNO......... with or without PAS as partner
ReplyDelete....seri iskandar
It seems "polygamous" Pas is being questioned over the guilty of having "extra-marital" relations that had frowned Umno lately. Ever wonder what exactly led up to the imminent "divorce" between them? Inviting Bersatu to join MN has long been agreed upon, why and what has caused Umno changes its mind to pull out of the initial plan? Does it merely because of the clash on distribution of seats? Or, is it likely due to failings of PM to meet Zahid's personal demands? If the Malay votes are split among PN and Umno, then PH stands a better chance to win. No doubt whatsoever. I guess, these Malay-based parties need to think hard and concentrate on the bigger picture for a fruitful outcome.
ReplyDeletePas wants it all.Like typical Pas men tak cukup 1 , nak 2 , 3, 4...pastu cerai 1 sebab nak yg 5....this is what is happenning. They have no integrity. Thwy want power tapi act like malu2. Dah ada power they do nothing. Look at Kelantan is enough. They kept riding on the religion tapi tengok muka masing2 tak bersih mana pun. Champion lah bila buat solat hajat ramai turun ...and then what? Nak manage negeri tak pandai, nak manage negara apa tah lagi. Hadi jadi menteri duta arab apa dia buat? Rakyat pulak yang kena tanggung bayar gaji buta dia. Cukup lah ahli pas kena tonggeng....nak mintak kwsp ISianr pun Najib yang tolong fight kan. Malu lah pemimpin sendiri taknak tolong ...
ReplyDeleteWhoever is handling UMNO's PR is doing a bad job.
ReplyDelete"Ketua Penerangan Bersatu, Wan Saiful Wan Jan menyoal mengenai undangan penyertaan Bersatu ke dalam Muafakat Nasional (MN).
"Tahun lepas Bersatu dijemput menyertai MN. Kita bincang mendalam jemputan ini dan akhirnya kita bersetuju menerima jemputan tersebut. Bukan kita minta masuk. Kita dijemput masuk.
"Bila kita dah balas surat dan nyatakan persetujuan, tidak ada respon rasmi mengenai status selanjutnya. Saya sendiri tertanya-tanya apa status jemputan itu sekarang," katanya pada satu kenyataan hari ini."
The simple answer to this fat little toyol is simple:
PAS were the ones who betrayed MN by unilaterally deciding to join a rival coalition.
That's it.
Simple.
But why is that counter-message not getting out there?
Umno are doing a terrible job in perception management.
Insyaallah, PAS will maintain Kelantan, Terengganu, as well as add Kedah to its resume.
ReplyDelete