The DAP Youth chief the other day said he got info that MCA and MIC will both defect from BN to Perikatan.
He also predicted that would be the end of Umno, which is DAP's long cherished dream.
Yeah right, Umno will die without MCA and MIC. Fine.
Okay lah, let's say Pas also joins Perikatan.
That means Umno will be going all alone into GE15.
But do you know that Peninsular Malays made up the majority in 128 of the 222 parliamentary constituencies in this country.
That's more than half.
Chinese on the other hand are the majority in 37 constituencies.
Indians have none.
Sarawak have 31 constituencies with the Malays there being the majority in 10 of them, the same as the Ibans while the Chinese have six, Orang Ulu have two and Bidayuh have three.
Sabah have 25 constituencies with Chinese being the majority in three of them while non-Muslims Bumiputera in nine and Muslims in 13.
Do you all also know that if just 11 per cent of Malay votes that swung against Umno in 2018 go back to them, the situation will revert back to pre-GE14?
Well, the last series of by-elections won by BN indicated such a swing back.
Malays were angry with the then Pakatan government.
Why? They said it's because Umno played racial politics.
But isn't that the same that they accused Umno of doing before they won GE14?
So, what's the difference? I leave you all to ponder on that, okay.
Oh by the way, look back at how DAP conducted themselves to galvanise the Chinese to rally around it during GE13 while you all are at it. The Chinese tsunami, remember? The effect is still here today.
Okay, back to that 128 constituencies with Peninsular Malays majority, how many are really out right so?
If I'm not mistaken, 101 of them have above 60 per cent Malay majority.
These are where the big fight between Umno and Perikatan will be. Pakatan may field their own Malay candidates there but they have no chance of winning.
Let's say Pas really decides to join Perikatan and Umno is all alone, would their votes really be split 50-50?
Personally, I don't think so.
I don't believe Umno will be so stupid as to repeat their mistakes in 2018. Okay, some of their leaders are indeed stupid and selfish, but the majority are not.
As I wrote previously, if the Umno leadership make the right moves and show themselves as ready to change for the better, they will get most of the Malay votes.
I don't think the overwhelming majority of Malays want to do anything that will bring back the Pakatan government after what they went through those 22 months.
I believe most of them don't want their votes to be split again which would allow that to happen.
Bear also in mind that there will be more Umno versus Pribumi Bersatu fights than Umno versus Pas fights.
And Umno will only face real challenges from Pas in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.
I believe Umno will prevail in Kedah and Terengganu.
In the other outright Malay majority constituencies elsewhere, Umno will steamroll over Pribumi Bersatu and others.
Do note that Pribumi Bersatu and Pas have snowball chance in hell to win in constituencies other than these. I think the same goes with the Perikatan mosquitoes parties.
How about MCA and MIC if they join Perikatan?
What kind of "winnable" constituencies will they be given in this era of Chinese and Indian perpaduan ummah under DAP?
Will Pas machinery (Pribumi Bersatu doesn't really have one) be campaigning like crazy for them the way Umno people did?
Think about that ya MCA and MIC people.
Oh, and I think Umno will continue using the BN logo even if MCA and MIC don't want to be with it anymore.
Umno could also get independent non-Malay candidates to contest selected seats under the BN banner.
Remember ya, that Orang Asli BN candidate who won the Cameron Highlands by-election was not an Umno member.
Also, other non-Malay-based parties may join BN as there will be no objection against them from MCA and MIC..
MCA and MIC will also not die alone.
If they defect to Perikatan, they will die with Pribumi Bersatu. So definitely not dying alone.