As it was in past general elections, I'm having an early look at my home state Johor, which many see as a reflection of what will transpire at the national level.
I'm doing this based on what I gathered from my sources on the ground in Johor, whom I believe are quite reliable.
I myself has not been to Johor since the Tanjong Piai by-election in November, 2019.
Currently, I'm not well enough to make the trip there. Not sure yet whether I'll be well enough to drive long distance to be there for GE15 like I did the past two general elections. On top of that, I'm no longer a registered voter in Johor.
Well, let's go through each of the 26 parliamentary constituencies in the state;
The over 55,000 voters are 46 per cent Malays, 43 per cent Chinese and 10 per cent Indians. PH won the seat in 2018 with over 5,000 majority but its PKR MP later defected to Pribumi Bersatu then PBM, I think. PH may win here again but BN may spring a surprise.
The over 45,000 voters are 59 per cent Malays, 36 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 1,200 but BN is likely to regain it in GE15.
The over 40,000 voters are 38 per cent Malays, 45 per cent Chinese and almost 15 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate won the seat in 2018 by a majority of over 3,000 and likely to retain it in GE15.
The over 51,000 voters are 66 per cent Malays, almost 30 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. PN's Muhyiddin won the seat under PH ticket in 2018 with a majority of over 6,900. BN has a chance to wrest the seat as a significant bulk of Muhyiddin's votes came from the local Chinese community, which may not likely support him anymore after he took out Pribumi Bersatu out of PH in 2020, causing the collapse of its government.
The over 77,000 voters are almost 56 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and about 4.6 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate won the seat in 2018 with over 8,600 majority but BN stands a good chance of winning it back in GE15.
The almost 74,000 voters are 44 per cent Malays, over 53 per cent Chinese and 2 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate retained this DAP stronghold in 2018 with a majority of over 23,000. PH is almost certain to win here again.
The almost 60,000 voters are over 66 per cent Malays, 31 per cent Chinese and just over 1 per cent Indians. Muda president Syed Saddiq won the seat on PH ticket with a majority of almost 7,000. He may retain the seat if PH backs his new party but BN still have a good chance to win it too.
P147 Parit Sulong
The almost 60,000 voters are 78.5 per cent Malays, over 20 per cent Chinese and less than half per cent Indians. BN's Wanita Umno chief Noraini won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 6,000 and she is almost certain to retain it in GE15.
P148 Ayer Hitam
The over 46,000 voters are almost 58 per cent Malays, 38 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. BN's MCA chief Ka Siong won the seat in 2018 by a majority of 303 votes but likely to increase it in GE15.
P149 Sri Gading
The over 52,000 voters are 65 per cent Malays, 33 per cent Chinese and about 1.5 per cent Indians. PH shockingly won in this once Umno stronghold with a majority of over 3,000 votes in 2018 but will likely lose it back to BN in GE15.
P150 Batu Pahat
The over 98,000 voters are almost 56 per cent Malays, over 43 per cent Chinese and 1.3 per cent Indians. PH's then Pribumi Bersatu candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of almost 18,000. BN, however, has a good chance of winning the seat back as it was expected to field the popular ex-Rengit Umno assemblyman Ayub Jamil.
P151 Simpang Renggam
The almost 44,000 voters are almost 60 per cent Malays, 30 per cent Chinese and almost 9 per cent Indians. PH won the seat via Maszlee Malik in 2018 with a majority of over 3,000 but an Umno candidate may likely return it back to BN in GE15.
The almost 100,000 voters are almost 42 per cent Malays, 47.5 per cent Chinese and over 9 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 23,000 and almost certain to retain it in GE15.
The over 44,000 voters are 60 per cent Malays, 29 per cent Chinese and almost 9 per cent Indians. BN's Umno leader Hishammuddin retained his seat in 2018 with a majority of over 6,000 and likely continue to do so in GE15.
The over 48,000 voters are 81 per cent Malays, just over 14 per cent Chinese and 1.2 per cent Indians. BN retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 8,000. Sources told me BN will field former MB Khaled Nordin there in GE15. Kalau tak menang juga tak tau lah aku nak kata apa.
The almost 45,000 voters are about 75 per cent Malays, 16 per cent Chinese and 6.6 per cent Indians. BN retained this Umno stronghold in 2018 with a majority of almost 6,000 and almost certain to do so again in GE15.
P156 Kota Tinggi
The almost 47,000 voters are about 88 per cent Malays, 9 per cent Chinese and 2 per cent Indians. BN's Halimah Sadique retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 14,000 and almost likely to do so again in GE15.
The over 40,000 voters are almost 90 per cent Malays, 9 per cent Chinese and less than one per cent Indians. BN's Azalina retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 11,000 and likely to do so again in GE15.
The over 123,000 voters are about 47 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and 11.5 per cent Indians. The PH's PKR candidate won in 2018 with a majority of almost 25,000 but later defected and now with PBM. PH has a good chance of regaining the seat in GE15 but so does BN if it fields the right candidate.
P159 Pasir Gudang
The over 124,000 voters are about 49 per cent Malays, 37 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate defeated Khaled Nordin in 2018 with a shocking majority of almost 25,000. PH does have a chance of retaining the seat but since BN was rumoured to be planning of sending Khaled to Mersing and field a better candidate there, the outcome has became more uncertain.
P160 Johor Baru
The over 101,000 voters are 52.6 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and 5 per cent Indians. The PH's PKR candidate beat Umno's long time MP Shahrir in 2018 with a majority of almost 20,000. PH may retain the seat in GE15 but that could be foiled if BN fields a good candidate.
The over 106,000 voters are 49 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. PH's Amanah candidate Salahuddin Ayub defeated Umno's Nur Jazlan in 2018 with a majority of almost 29,000 votes. I heard BN has asked Nur Jazlan to contest there again despite the guy previously saying that he's not interested. It's indeed going to be tough, but knowing Jazlan, I believe he will give his best shot and may still has the chance to pull it off.
P162 Iskandar Puteri
The over 138,000 voters are about 36 per cent Malays, almost 50 per cent Chinese and over 12 per cent Indians. DAP's Kit Siang retained the seat for PH in 2018 with a majority of almost 50,000. PH is almost certain to retain the seat in GE15 no matter who DAP field to replace the retired Kit Siang.
The over 99,000 voters are 35 per cent Malays, over 54 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. DAP candidate retained the seat for PH in 2018 with a majority of almost 34,000. PH is certain to yet again retain the seat in GE15.
The over 55,000 voters are over 68 per cent Malays, 30 per cent Chinese and just over one per cent Indians. Umno's Ahmad Maslan retained the seat for BN in 2018 with a majority of just 833 but BN is likely to improve that in GE15.
P165 Tanjung Piai
The over 53,000 voters are almost 57 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and just over one per cent Indians. PH won the seat in 2018 with a majority of 524 but was later thrashed by BN at the by-election there over a year later with a majority of over 15,000. There are no reason things will change there in GE15.
Okay, the numbers of voters I used here were based on that of general election in 2018 and they would definitely be higher for GE15.
However, since the percentages would rightly remain more or less the same, I believe my projection of the overall picture should relatively be accurate.
Some may say there are other factors such as young voters and such, but I still believe the percentages wouldn't change by much. Some young voters will be voting for PH but others, likely an equal number of them may vote for BN too.
Also to be noted was that in 2018, the percentage of voters turnout was over 80 per cent throughout Johor with the exception of Mersing which recorded 79.5 per cent.
I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout percentage decreases to just about 70 per cent in GE15.
After all, many people are now fed up with politics, especially after the disappointing performance of the Pakatan administration when they came to power in 2018.
Otherwise, Pakatan wouldn't lose that badly in all those by-elections and state elections since that year.
Final conclusion - BN has 14 seats that it will most likely win, PH has five while another seven are too close to call at this moment.
The 14 seats BN should by right win are Sekijang, Pagoh, Parit Sulong, Ayer Hitam, Sri Gading, Batu Pahat, Simpang Renggam, Semberong, Mersing, Kota Tinggi, Tenggara, Pengerang, Pontian and Tanjung Piai.
PH's sure win seats are all DAP's at Labis, Bakri, Kluang, Iskandar Putri and Kulai.
The 50-50 seats, which could be won either by PH or BN are Segamat, Ledang, Muar, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Pulai and Johor Baru.
Yup, I believe it's going to be actually a straight fight between BN and PH in Johor.
PN and the mosquito parties will be wiped out there.
I agreed with this projection 14 sure win + 3 (segamat/muar/ledang/tebrau between these 4)ReplyDelete
would be interesting if pn win johor. it will be an undeniable prove that there is something inside johorean headReplyDelete
Why would you think the opposition refused to dissolve their state assemblies? Yes, your guess as good as mine. To deny CLEAN SWEEP victory to BN.ReplyDelete
By having a separate election from federal government, if they’re going to lose, they are not going to lose at all. Winners can’t take all. Save them another year. Not exactly a year but only months. With that decision, the government have to fork out another 1 billion just to entertain the antics of the oppo who are too afraid of losing power.
Instead of spending just over 1 billion if election being held sinultaneously, the government have to fork out another billion of taxpayers money for another large scale elections latest by July next year. What a waste of a billion. Not to mention other resources unnecessarily spent such as time, energy and manpower of the SPR and those politicians too who have to campaigning twice. If you are an old man, another round of hard work on the campaign trails zig-zagging the country will going to take a toll on your health and longevity.
And another billion unnecessarily spent next year. A billion is a lot of money. There’s a lot we can do with a billion. With 1 billion, that’s enough money to repair all dilapidated schools in rural Sabah and Sarawak. With 1 billion, that’s enough to fund cooking gas subsidy for M40/B40. With 1 billion it would be enough to fund petrol subsidy for Malaysians for 3 months.
With 1 billion it would be enough to fund chicken and egg subsidies for B40/M40. With 1 bilion, 2 hospitals or 5 health clinics could be built. With 1 billion, a hundred school could be built. There’s a lot government can do with that 1 billion. State elections held together or not, they are just delaying the inevitable. The writing is already on the wall. The clock is ticking. Tick tock, tick tock…
here are two sides of a coin. 1. Johor and malaka had early election. It was a waste of money.2 . Why pru15 was done now not when pru and prn are forced to do simultaneously dued yo expiry on the term. So all of them are wasting tax payers money for thier whim and fancy. It got nothing to do with economy or stability. World is facing global meltdown due to liability driven investment. We are not immune to this and it is coming to our shore sooner that expected. Be warned. When interest rate is up the bond prices will fall. Who holds majority of these bonds. It will be a double whammy internally and externally.Delete
Spot on, Anon 21:09. Couldn't agree more with you.Delete
I am not going to touch on PAS owing to its disparate integrity. But, to PH is a different matter because its leaders always stress that how circumspect and parsimonious they are when it comes to spend tax-payers' monies. Many of us have fallen for it. But then, it looks like this strategy of power-grabbing applies to all, regardless of which side of the divide. So PH should, from now on, stop whinging. I sincerely hope that the decision on having separate state polls will severely backfire on PH, especially DAP in Penang. If that really happens, Anwar should be held culpable for all that. What baffles me is that, hasn't DAP had enough of Anwar's past atrocious generalship? Ok, while they get to play politics, we would have to continue praying in silence.
Couldn't care less on how others are predicted to be doing as I'm just interested in keeping a tab on PKR. I dreadfully wish that PKR will be flushed out, not only in Johor but elsewhere too, exactly like the deserving abysmal results of those recent state polls. Oh, the more I imagine the more anxiety I feel. Just can't wait to see the so-called dynamic formidability of PH chief can bring forth to lead and be in the battlefield. Pity the chief who feels dizzy after receiving a massive influx of invitation to field him. It seems like everyone just wants him, any time and every where. Well, as usual, he is now floating on cloud nine building castles in the air, yet again!!ReplyDelete
i am fed up with umno, hope they lose all seats in johorReplyDelete
ofcouse you want bn to lose, DAP is your new God and how to fight GodDelete
Saudara HY kena rational lah sikit.Delete
BN /UMNO Akan menang Di Malay stronghold.Begitu juga DAP Akan Di chinese stronghold.yg susah Indian sahaja.tiada majority Di mana2.
Yg senang DAP sahaja sebab 95% ,Chinese stronghold DAP Akan sapu bersih semua.Cina MCA kena simpati UMNO Baru bolih menang,contoh Air Hitam(Wee Ka Siong) & TG.Piai ( JS Wee ).
Aisay Annie.... don't know wat u see in yr crystal ball....but if voters cont'd to vote a party of thieves, crooks dat have screwed d rakyat many times...apa nak dikato? U gotta be more than stupid.ReplyDelete
U undi sokong mana? PH ke?
Boss PH Anwar bersih ke?Tak Rasuah?tanya Lim Kit Siang ,Anwar rasuah tak? Jika apek ni cakap Anwar tak rasuah,tanda nya Apek Lim ini sudah nyanyuk & sewel.2 dekad Supremo Dap ni cakap Anwar rasuah,tapi bila Anwar di tendang UMNO,tiba2 DAP sambar jadi ketua,begitu juga semua pakatoon & Dapigs.macam lah semua pemimpin PH bersih rasuah.dulu2 pakatoon semua jilat maharaja rasuah ,Madey.Hipokrit betul macai2 anti UMNO ni.yg betul nya semua pemimpin Politik pengamal rasuah,jika tak macamana nak biayai aktiviti politik.cermin diri dulu,Safei apdal Warisan,Mahiadin Bersatu,Lim Guan Eng Dap,Azmin Bersatu,( PKR),kamu fikir mereka kaya raya duit menabung gaji ke?
PH dah kurang idea nak kempen,ulang2 isu rasuah,bukan rasuah tu baik,tapi kamu tengok lah bila PH perintah 22 bulan,apa jadi,masa kempen seribu cadangan/idea.dapat jadi kerajaan seribu Alasan,sebab itu PH takut PRU awal,masih takut hadapi pengundi.itu sebab nya..bukan banjir(ni sebab tiada alasan lain).
Siapa tak sokong PH U cakap stupid ,sekarang saya cakap jika U undi PH ,U ni dumb & dumber.
Aiyo anon 15:21 u r dumb dumber , dumberer & dumberest. Setaket ini berapa olang PH yg Ada kes rasuah banding dgn olang BN (read UMNO). Yr boss skrng dlm lokap ...wat have u got to say. Even yr poster boy KJ was found guilty of money politics. He got off becos of his father in law. Mengaku shj la... BN is corrupted to the core...if u cannot see this..u r dumberestReplyDelete
Macai Dapigs yg bakal kalah teruk cakap macam ni lah.Delete
Name calling ,itu saja u bolih buat.Dari pemimpin sampai ke macai@ lackey macam U ni semua kaki temberang .bagi kerajaan 22 bulan kerja tak tahu buat, ramai rakyat dah sedar( Tapi Pakatoon dapigs macam U Buta Kayu) sebab itu PH takut PRU,( Umpama Anjing
yg sedang takut,jadi Melalak kuat kuat ) .Paling takut Tokong Lim dengan kes rasuah terowong,kali ini tiada Tommy yang tolong gugur kes rasuah.Lepas PRU heret semua orang PH ke mahkamah,Tokong Lim akan jadi Lim Gone End.Bahang dah terasa .Padan muka.
Anon 22:25, poodahh.. u think your dap, pkr & amanah are spotlessly clean? They all got their cronies lah who funded them. Beli rumah beliw market price is not crony money politics meh? Khir Toyo went to jail for this crime.Delete
Omputih kata "Once bitten twice shy".Delete
Melayu plak "Tak akan pisang berbuah dua kali".
22 bulan nak tunjuk hebat malangnya hegeh bagaikan kera dberi bunga!
Sampai PM depa sendiri naik geli geleman, ca alip ba wau ta lali..
Apa lagi nak kato??
Professor Nasi Lemak
U had 60 yrs and wat have u to show? Malays still asking for handouts, still being poor despite despite helming practically all institutions. Yr own kind robbing u blind and still u support them...tak tau apa nak Di Kato.ReplyDelete
Pandai cakap sja jenis kamu ni. Menang sja hegeh2 cekop dana Petronas berbillion2.. lelong asset GLC.. Haiyaa. In just 22mths??? Amboii macam dh berpakat, laju plak dapat pembeli2??Delete
Alamak. Klo ikut gitu anak aku kat sklh rendah pun bole jadi Finance Minister.. nak duit main cedok aje apa yg depan mata.
Handouts?? Handouts apa tuuu? Kindly fwd the contact nbrs besaq2 kat sini, nak tgk sikit famili kami bole dapat atau tidak? Aku nak jenis2 mcam anak2 menantu2 cucu2 Atok dapat tau. Yg tulis atas kertas aje lagi best.
Professor Nasi Lemak
Anon 15:47, we gave ph & dap a chance but you all blew it. For once I agree with nasi lemak basi, macam kera dapat bunga. Instead of building bridges, u guys made changes for the sake of making changes. Your initial response to covid was to downplay the risks. Your ministers were late in closing borders and curbing large gatherings.Delete
60 tahun perintah Tu,1/3 ,lebih tempat 22 tahun Madey Perintah,Anwar pun Ada Sama . Kamu macai macai Pakatoon pun lantik Madey jadi PM Dan Anwar,CALUN TETAP PM ,Kamu Pakatoons ni buat benda bodoh ,bila masalah salahkan pihak lain.jangan pakai Lagi naratif Melayu Minta handout,buka Mata besar besar,semua kaum Sama,ramai dengan sedikit sahaja
Anon 18 Oct 22 at 15:47ReplyDelete
....U had 60 yrs..
Amboi sejarah kamu mulai dlm masa 60tahun sja ke? Lu balu masuk Malaysia ke?
Ayuh kita tgk sejarah sblum 60thn cam mana plak?
Professor Nasi Lemak
Professor nasi lemak...sentuh pasal declassified document(by the Brits)Delete
Puak puak pendatang & di datangkan ni mana reti bahasa, sendiri dapat bantuan payung & tongkat duduk diam,tengok Kampung kampung baru untuk penyokong komunis cukuplah,bayangkan,Peneroka Felda pun kira hutang,potong hasil kebun,lepas berpuluh tahun baru dapat hakmilik.Itu pun puak fahaman ROKET ni bising2 macam anjing.mereka ini lah parasite yg sebenar2 nya.
If malaysia has pensionable age of 60 except for the judge, why should the politician be an exception. We should not choose those over 60. The country should belong to younger generation.ReplyDelete
Such a hypocrite and political nomad, namely Anwar. Abandoned PD, leaving behind all the unfulfilled promises, and now all set heading for Tambun. May Tambun voters dismiss him and never trust a word he says.ReplyDelete
Percaya lah.tunggu dan lihat.Delete
Anwar akan kalah di Tambun, bersedia lah dengar alasan "teori konspirasi " bila Anwar kalah nanti.
Dia akan jadi Drama King sekali lagi.Yg seronok nya PH & Pakatoons Perak sudah naik STIM.
Buat pertama kali nya Perak akan dapat wakil PM,kata mereka .
All of a sudden, the chameleon takes on the colours of Tambun surroundings and makes all the pomelos taste sweeter, look bigger, and what is more, juicier than ever. Well, all eyes will be on that 30% of Malay votes' sway, according to Rafizi's calculation, to angkat him as PM, the perfect one which the princess of reformasi had once promised. Yikes!ReplyDelete
stupid till endtime. if guy or scammer show fantatics laosi myammar job offers isnt it bring to relevant authority.Delete
ini pun semua proofper de nasi lemah punya kerja. dan sidekik annidelie hari hari propaganda subversit di media social sehinnga investors lari ke viet kong,