EC will decided the date of the Johor election tomorrow.
My bet is that it will be held as soon as possible with a short campaigning period considering the rising number of Covid-19 cases.
They can't afford to to push it way back and give a prolonged campaign as that will increase the risks of infections among the people.
I also believe that would be the best way to do it as most people in Johor have likely by now decided who they are going to vote for and that include those who are sitting on the fence.
There's no need for too much campaigning as people just want to get over the election quickly and go on their way trying to survive the current bad economy caused by the pandemic and poor administration over the past four years.
I think the result of the Johor election is a foregone conclusion too.
BN will win big and its opponents, which are currently in disarray would at most be able to retain only a handful from the seats that they won in 2018.
They said Undi18 will turn the table on BN but I disagree.
Most of the kids who can vote this time, I believe, will have the same idea as who they should vote for as that of their elders.
There will be over 700,000 new voters in Johor for the state election but the pattern of voting will not likely to change by much. After all, only 30 per cent of them are actually those between the age of 18 and 21, whom the Pakatan people think to be all on their side.
I believe that, at most, BN would lose only 18 of the 56 seats to be contested.
Those were seats of Chinese majority constituencies and vey small Malay majority ones.
They are Jementah, Bekok, Tangkak, Bentayan, Sungai Abong, Maharani, Yong Peng, Parit Yaani, Penggaram, Mengkibol, Puteri Wangsa, Johor Jaya, Stulang, Pengkalan Rinting, Skudai, Bukit Batu, Senai, and Pekan Nenas.
Most of them are DAP strongholds.
That means, at its worst, BN would still win at least 38 seats, which is a two third majority.
As for their opponents, I believe Malay-based parties Pribumi Bersatu, Pas and Amanah will be wiped out while Chinese-based DAP will have the most of the 18 seats potentially to be won, giving one or two of them to its PKR ally.
The reality on the ground in Johor has been quite clear after the outcome of Tanjong Piai by-election two years ago when MCA's Wee Jeck Seng soundly thrashed a Malay Pribumi Bersatu candidate in that significantly Malay-majority parliamentary constituency.
People are fed-up with the mess after Pakatan took over in 2018.
Okay, to be fair they were actually starting to get fed-up ever since Khaled Nordin became MB in 2013 but things just got so much worse after GE14.
Even the Chinese community in Johor could feel this, but I don't think that they have much choice but to mostly continue supporting DAP.
Too much pride at stake, I believe.
But who knows, MCA, if it has good enough candidates, may spring a few surprises like in the recent Malacca election. The same with MIC.