Saturday 20 May 2017

Can Khaled do what Ghani did in handling a Malay tsunami?

According to this Bernama story,

Johor BN Will Focus Efforts To Recapture Seats From Opposition

JOHOR BAHRU, May 20 (Bernama) -- Johor Barisan Nasional (BN) will focus its efforts to recapture seats lost to the opposition in the last 13th General Election (GE13).

Johor BN chairman Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin said BN would ensure victory, despite the opposition´s confidence of capturing 5 parliamentary seats in the upcoming 14th General Election (GE14).

"Ask the opposition to specify which areas (15 seats) that they want to capture in Johor," he told reporters after launching the Mega Sale �Muafakat Johor´ Carnival 2017 at Pasir Gudang Indoor Stadium, here today.

The Johor Menteri Besar was commenting on a statement by Pakatan Harapan that expressed confident to capture 15 seats in the state in GE14 after a special meeting of the Pakatan Harapan Johor yesterday.

In the GE13, Johor BN won 21 of 26 parliamentary seats. The five opposition seats are Kulai, Gelang Patah, Kluang, Batu Pahat and Bakri and Pagoh.

On the Mega Sale Carnival, Mohamed Khaled said the carnival would be expanded to Iskandar Malaysia as it would help the people in the face of rising prices of daily necessities at the moment.

Not a very well written story, but never mind.

Well, since Khaled asked where are the five parliament seats the opposition is confident of capturing,
let me take a wild guess....errr, one of them should be at his own division of Pasir Gudang where BN's majority was slashed in 2013 from over 20,000 to less than 1,000.

It's 935, to be exact.

The others should be Ledang (1,967), Tebrau (1,767), Muar (1,646), Segamat (1,217) and Labis (353).

Out of the 25 parliament seats won by BN by less than 2,000 votes in the last general election, six are in Johor.

That makes it one extra more than what Khaled asked for.

There are several other places in Johor where BN's majority had been significantly reduced, but let's save those for another story.

Can BN win back its lost parliament seats in Johor?

For that, maybe we can just look at the majority won by the opposition in Gelang Patah, which is 14,752, Bakri (5,067), Kluang (7,359), Kulai (13,450) and Batu Pahat (1,524).

Maybe Batu Pahat can be taken back by BN.

In the first place, BN was not supposed to lose that seat in the last general election but the Umno headquarter's decision to ignore Johor liasion committee's recommendation not to field Mohd Puad Zarkashi there handed the seat to the opposition.

For more on that, read this,

Meroyan kalah pilihanraya

So, what could possibly be Khaled's strategy to avoid BN from losing more seats, or to put it as he said, to recapture those now with the opposition?

If we look at all those 50-50 seats, they are mostly racially marginal.

That means BN, or to be more precise Umno can't rely solely on Malay unity in Johor.

It needs to win back some non-Malay votes in the state, especially among the Chinese.

I'm not sure how they can achieve that, but definitely not by the approach of some who went around saying that the next general election will be about Malays versus Chinese.

Some people told me that the Bangsa Johor campaign led by the palace may do the trick as it makes the Chinese happy.

Maybe kut.

Well, I don't know. Only the Johorean Chinese can tell whether they are happy or not.

As for Malay unity in Johor, it  has always been unity in Umno.

Nothing to do with Umno-Pas unity. That's why I couldn't care less about all those perpaduan ummah talks. In Johor, it's perpaduan Melayu didalam Umno, okay.

Khaled personally told me that 83 per cent of Malays in Johor voted for BN in the last general election.

That's how strong was Malay unity in Johor.

I believe if not for that, the Chinese tsunami of 2013 would have swept away the state from BN.

In light of the Umno rebellion led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the opposition is expecting a Malay tsunami against BN in the next general election.

They expect Johor to be hit hard by it, thus their confidence in capturing more parliamentary seats in the state.

The last time there was something which could be described as a Malay tsunami was during the 1999 general election.

It was estimated that less than 40 per cent of Malays voted for BN in that election

The ruling coalition was saved by the Chinese who went all out to vote for it after being spooked by the violent mostly Malay-led Reformasi riots of  Anwar Ibrahim.

Umno, nonetheless, lost a lot of seats with Pas capturing Terengganu that year.

Johor was however untouched by that Malay tsunami.

Johor BN, led by then MB TS Abdul Ghani Othman, won all the parliament and state seats in that 1999 general election. It was an amazing 100 per cent victory at the height of a Malay rebellion against Umno.

Back then, Johor was truly the tiang seri of Umno.

Lets see if it is still so, and whether Khaled can do what Ghani did in leading Johor into what the opposition believe will be another Malay tsunami.

I do hope for Khaled's sake that he agrees with me that in Johor, it is not wise to stop a Malay tsunami by saying "you are with us or against us", 'no retreat, no surrender" and other such stupid things now very popular among some clever Umno people and supposed supporters.

Bear in mind that back in 1999, there were many Johorean Malays who disliked Dr Mahathir for what he did to Anwar, but they still voted for BN because of their loyalty to Umno.  It helps that Johor Umno, then under Ghani, never witch-hunted them.

Maybe Khaled can learn from that.


  1. Cina tatak undi BN lagi manyak untung maa aa , Bulayu kasi undi UMNO lagi manyak lugi maa aa ,pasat UMNO ingat itu tatak bolih lalai dali UMNO maa aa ,itu pasat manyak lugi maa aa .

    Bulayu undi UMNO apa-apa pon tatak lapat lapat itu BRIM saja maa aa ,lumah untuk bumiputra semua Cina sapau ,tanah lagi tatak bolih lapat pasat UMNO ingat tatak kasi apa pon lapat undi maa aa .

    Bulayu mesti mau ubah maa aa ,macam Cina juga maa aa ,kasi 10 sen ,mesti mau lapat balik 1 lingit ,bukan kasi 1 linggit lapat balik 10 sen maa aa ,itu macam apa macam ,manyak lugi maa aa.

  2. Khaled can give heaven and earth to the johorean chinese...sad to say nothing will change them.Because their mind and soul are in the graps of LKS nad LGE! Since they start schooling.I mean SJKC...

    1. Don't so quick mengumpat SJKC ok? Tengok apa ustaz Ridhuan Tee kata pasal mereka ...

      Cuba kita mampu membaiki Sekolah Kebangsaan kita sendiri alright?

  3. Rakyat dah tak minat dengan umno, tidak minat untuk membandingkan si A dan si B, tak penting langsung, sama sahaja.

    Rakyat mahu umno dikalahkan, period

    1. "Tidak minat untuk membandingkan si A dan si B, takpenting langsung, sama sahaja".

      Itu itik kasi buang lalam air ,semua pandai belenang maa aa .

      Tatak ingin tertipu lagi lor rr , belapa kali sutak kena tipu maa aa ,sutak selik lor rr.

    2. UMNO is having a bad performance these last decade
      It is so bad that the opposition can appear in a very good light

  4. As a Johorean myself(even though I don't live in Johor for the past 30 years),I believe Johor BN will di better in this upcoming GE due to the fractured oppositions.
    Bersatu fails to make an impact among Malays.Pas is no longer in the opposition.
    BN will probably get its two third majority.InsyaAllah

    Prof Kangkung

    1. We av a population of roughly 30 million..
      can u actually list down jus 300 hundred people who really knows U as a fren or vice versa..

      I don't think u actually can.. so who the hell cares what u believe nd where ur from...

    2. Dear anon 1351.
      I have been an academic close to 30 years.For the past 30 years I have imparted my knowledge, ideas, views etc to thousand of my students.
      I may not as popular as Datuk Vida of pagoma fame or Fatah Amin the actor.But my views count.
      Many of my students have become academicians themselves and carry the same ideas.
      Kita letakkan fakta.we argue on facts not on assumption.

      Prof Kangkung

    3. 'Bersatu fails to make an impact among Malays..'

      - Can you elaborate more on that. On what basis did you come out with that statement? You clearly haven't been to one of Bersatu's ceramah. The latest one was in Jitra, Kedah it filled to the brims.
      The real impact of Bersatu will only be known after GE and I would like to see you eat your own words. If you want discredited someone, please do it class. After all you claimed yourself as professor. Takkan profesor main tulis hentam keromo saja..

    4. Anon 04:19

      Why is it then Mamak Kutty Madey so desparately wanted Pas to joint Pakatan Haprak or PPBM on this matter.Now if you want to credit someone please don't hantam membabi buta.

      Jkkk Felda Lyndon B. Johnson

  5. Suasana pilitik di seluruh Malaysia dah tonggang terbalik. Bukan baru ni. Dah dekat 2 dekad. Anak anak kita ni yang baru 1st time nak mengundi ni aku kesian kat dia orang ni pasal selama hidup mereka ni mereka dihidangkan politik sampah dan politik longkang yang tak ada membawa banyak kemajuan sosial dan ekonomi malah membantutkan nya lagi ada la. Jadi yang dia orang kenal amalan politik yang maha buruk.

    The present administration langsung tak reti nak focus at creating employment and at keeping inflation in check. Nak buat projek besar besar mak datok tapi nak start pun macam macam bala timbul dulu. Pendek kata pemerintah akal nya pendek. Kelentong dan kelepet memang mereka hebat belaka kesemuanya.

    Ghani Othman ni boleh kira MB yang berjaya la politically & economically. Khaled ni belum kena test lagi. Jadi jangan confident sangat kebolehan dia. Yang kita dengar ada banyak taik jugak. Suasana sekarang sangat berbeza. Perang politik semakin memualkan rakyat dan dulu bukan berpunca dari umno; tapi sekarang memang jelas umno dan bn tidak bertindak tegas menangani kerakusan pembesar2 dab ahli2nya mengamalkan banyak penyelewangan. Sekarang memang dah susah nak tepuk dulang yang penuh air kencing nanti kena muka sendiri.

    Benteng di Johor dah mula dirobohkan dan opposition nampak perkara ni tak mustahil dengan kepimpinan yang lemah di Johor. Sultan tak dapat bantu Khaled dia de. Tsunami Melayu ni nampak nya tidak mustahil. Dulu selain umno orang Melayu boleh undi pas. Sekarang berbagai bagai..Amanah, PPBM, PKR. Melayu yang tak kesah undi DAP pun dah betambah ramai.

    Professor Kangkung maha confident bn boleh dapat majority besar dalam PRU14 manakala sebutan "ini kali la" ni dah 2 PRU bergema dan kali ni suara Melayu menuntut perubahan semakin kuat gema nya.


    1. Yaa lor rr ,ini kali maa aa ,kasi betut-betut tukar maa aa .
      Bulayu sutak bolih halap sama ini UMNO lagi maa aa ,manyak kasi hantam balik sama Bulayu lagi lor rr .

      Sikalang hali-hali kita lengar sana sini SPRM kasi tangkap Bulayu kasi hantam kepentingan Bulayu n negala ,apa lagi mau kasi halap maa aa ,Syabas SPRM tapi itu busat-busat belum kasi kena lagi lea aa.

      Apa dihalap pada pagar ,kalau itu pagar yang makan itu padi ,jangan malah Wa sikit pantun lea aa .

    2. Lufang aar.

      You mau pantun, jaga-jaga sikit lo. Itu hali, Levid Teo, bulum kasi habit pantun, sulah kena hantam lo.

      Tapi ...apa lu cakap, ala butut.

      Sanah punya kes... Jabatan Air... 110 Juta cash pun diam saja. Talak siap kena. Sikalang sudak jadi money-laundering. Itu macam, kita tak boleh tau, siapa kasi, siapa telima, untuk 'beli' apa favor.

      Mau PRU punya jam, baru bising-bising, tangkap sana-sini, busat-busat punya olang.

      Dulu PRU13 punya jam pun ini macam wayang. Khir Toyo pun kena penjara 1 tahun. Mau kasi Rakyat ingat... waa...UMNO manyak bagus. Sendili pun olang-busat pun Najib tak kasi cam. Tak boleh kowtim.

      Sikalang, PRU sulah dekat... pun manyak wayang loo..

  6. Well i am johorean n hv always voted for bn coz i am umno man, but coming GE 14 my vote is going to ph

    1. Vote for Decency, bros. - reject Decadence

  7. If johoreans dont vote for PM or BN, mat over will slap the johoreans...

    1. Kahkahkah, hanya di msia sahaja, tu pun masa skrg dulu tkde mcm ni, org yg kena lempang kena mtk maaf pd org yg dilepang, sbb umno kata yg di lepang cina jd kena mtk maaf, umno dh jd parti yg guna sentimen kaum ganti parti dap yg sblm ni guna sentimen kaum

    2. Exactly. The guy clearly had no manners. Thinking about it again right now make me want to cradle my head in my hands out of shame and embarassment. Jeez what was he thinking? Did he ever heard or read on how to behave at official event?

      Doing your own stuff in big official event like that is a BIG NO NO. Let alone the event was attended by a very distinguished guest such as the prime minister. The guy clearly was out of his mind and did know what he's doing. He's a freak. He has no manners and went too far with it when he stepped onto the stage and slapped a person with a social status like David Teo in front of prime minister.

      FYI, the event was government official function, held at prime minister's official residence and attended by ALL cabinet ministers.
      You must be at your very best behaviour. Can you imagine if it happened at Istana Negara? right in front of the King ? And this guy coming out of nowhere showed up in front of the audience and doing his own thing which is not in the itinerary. Everyone's jaw dropped..They must have thought this guy probably palace's court jester who ran amuck..

      His unpredictable behaviour was so unbecoming as an attendee of an official event. His action in taking matters in his own hand was so hilly-billy and signified a lack of education. The guy should be barred from attending any official events in the future. He needs to take crash course lesson on social etiquette to prevent him from crashing any official events in the future.

    3. The guy who slap Teo is now a youth icon in Trengganu. There was even a huge billboard of his face by the roadside.
      Chinese in Trengganu must be very proud of him.

    4. The guy who slap Teo clearly said..."jangan kurang ajar". Now i think this kurang ajar attitude of Teo was intentionally and purposely not being mention by you.This kurang ajar and arrogantness attitude was the major triggering factor of May 13 and the slapping incident is a manifestation of what next going to happen if this arrogantness and kurang ajar or besar kepala goes too much for all the normal and humble Mat to take it!

    5. Ya ke david teo kurang ajar dgn pm atau dia kurang ajar dgn rosyam nor sbb dua2 tu mmg dingin hubungan mereka, david teo tegur rosyam ttg keduudukan moderator dgn org ramai yg bagi david tk sesuai, jd sapa yg tk kawal emosi, sapa yg ckp dgn pm dia tu mmg kurang ajar dato seri

  8. Annie. About the tampar incidence. It says a lot about a leader when his follower behaved like a hooligan. Mungkin ada yang berasa diri pahlawan. It's an insult to the concepts 'dialogue' and 'moderator'. Dialogue nya tak dia-logue. Moderator nya tak moderate.

    1. Annie.About the penampar incidence.Kurang ajar Teo has just upload a video of how he sarcastically make fun of the situation...selepas berlakon bermaaf maafan! Memang terserlah lah sikap kurang ajar..biadap..dan angkuh yang ada pada diri nya.Mat Over has did the wright thing and he aint simply no ordinary Mat Over.How i wish i was there at that time so that i too can unleash my kind of penampar! Kurang ajar Teo simply deserved it.

  9. Some hero. Pathetic. The kind that will end up bertumbuk tak puas hati lepas main guli. But now knows only how to bertumbuk di cyberspace. Grow up. Have some dignity and respect your bangsa and ugama. What a disgrace.