This is how I see it,
First Route - Umno and its BN allies going on their own in GE15.
They may just be able to form a government provided they could defeat PAS in the Malay states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.
The other two Malay states of Pahang and Perlis should already be in their bag.
This means they need to convince the Malays to give it an all out support.
They may very well form a government with support from the Sarawakian parties, as in the past.
I believe PH will retain most of their urban seats as the non-Malays will likely to continue their support for them.
PN will either be wiped out or manage to break the Malay vote bank and allow PH to win as it was in 2018.
Pribumi Bersatu is nonetheless almost certain to lose all of its seats to Umno.
The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is between 60 and 70 per cent.
If Umno is successful, we will be back to how it was pre-GE14 when the country was govern by a moderate multi-racial coalition.
Second Route - Umno and its BN allies combined with PAS in GE15
They are going to win almost all of the Malay votes and wipe out Pribumi Bersatu and its mosquito parties allies.
The Sarawakian parties will join them to form a government which is likely to have a two third majority in parliament.
PH will still retain their urban seats courtesy of non-Malay votes but will not be able to stop the formation of a strong Malay-Muslim-Bumiputera government.
For this one, the ball is with PAS.
If they choose to join Umno and its gang, they will be part of the new government but if they decide to be with Pribumi Bersatu, they will sink with it.
They will sink even if Umno and gang lose because of the split Malay votes and PH will not be nice at all with them once it is in power again.
The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is almost 100 per cent and the probability of them getting the two third majority government is about 70 per cent.
If Umno is successful with this one, then we will see even more pro-Malay/Islam/Bumiputera government policies. Umno's non-Malay allies, MCA and MIC will have a hard time trying to take care of their communities' interests.
And if the new government got that two third majority, we could almost certainly expect some constitutional amendments.
Oh, and they would also likely do a re-delineation of the electoral boundaries which ensure they will never lose for a very very long time.
Third Route - Umno and its BN allies going on their own in GE15 and get a new partner after that.
This one will depend on how many seats Umno and its BN allies will get.
If they win a lot, they will choose to approach PAS to get enough seats to form a government and we would get the scenario in Route Two.
If they win not so many, they may likely approach PKR to form a government.
I don't think they will ask DAP to join the club as PKR should have enough of the needed seats.
They are also not likely to approach Amanah as I think that party, along with Pribumi Bersatu will be wiped out in GE15.
Would PKR consider joining Umno and its allies to form a government?
This is what I think Anwar would say, "Saya sudah memikirkan semasak-masaknya dan mengambil keputusan bahawa PKR perlu mengambil jalan yang terbaik dan menjadi sebahagian dari kerajaan demi kepentingan rakyat."
Of course he would add some fancy Malay and Arabic words to it, as usual.
This is actually quite a good deal for Umno as it will be able to lead a government with a weak Opposition.
PAS and DAP will be without credible allies and they can't work together due to past bad blood which caused the self-destruction of Pakatan Rakyat after GE13.
The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is about 95 per cent.
The five per cent failure rate is if Anwar get stupid and grew some real conscience and stick with DAP. Well, in that case there are still PAS and individual MPs who may cross over "demi perpaduan ummah".
If Umno is successful with this scenario, we may either get the same stuff as the Second Route or something quite similar with First Route with PKR attached to it.
Special message to non-Malay voters:
Your best choice, I think is for Umno to go on the First Route. I suggest for you all to help support MCA and MIC which would defend your interests in a post-GE15 government, just like what they used to do before you all got united under DAP. Don't be angry ya, it's just my humble suggestion. You all can always choose to believe that DAP is your saviour and for that you will have Umno getting what it wants along Route Two or Three. I'm fine with that too. Ciao.
Saya sokong "First Route".ReplyDelete
Klepto or not, only Najib is making sense among Malaysian politikus:Delete
"PETALING JAYA: Umno Cabinet members must speak up on issues affecting the people if they are not resigning from their posts, former prime minister Najib Razak said.
In a Facebook post, Najib said if the logic of remaining in the Cabinet is to maintain accountability and preserve Umno’s reputation, its Cabinet members have a duty to address government decisions that harm Malaysians, citing recent examples.
He told the Umno ministers to push for a Parliament sitting, as “Malaysia is the only country in the world that has suspended its constitution and Parliament on the pretext of curbing Covid”, and pointed to statements made by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, who said Parliament can sit during an emergency.
Najib also questioned the new ordinance allowing the prime minister and chief ministers or menteris besar to pass supplementary budgets and use consolidated funds without having to go through the legislature during the emergency period.
“Where is the existence of democracy in a world where the government does not have to be accountable to Parliament in terms of government spending?” he asked.
He said the Umno Cabinet members must bring a motion to Parliament when it sits to lift the government’s debt level above the 60% ceiling currently in place, repeating his earlier claim that it had reached 62.2% by the end of last year.
He also took issue with the cancellation of the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail project and the plan for a high-speed rail link with the line ending in Johor, which he said would “cost basically the same”.
“As a result, the government has paid RM320 million in compensation to Singapore and affected the profits of the project forever,” he said.
Najib also took aim at the decision made by sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd to sell the country’s largest semiconductor company, SilTerra, to Chinese buyers for RM273 million at a time when the industry is set to expand."
Umno has 17 people in Cabinet.
Can you name even 10 of them?
This is really gaji buta.
The Fuelsubs mamak says they must stay in cabinet to preserve Umno's reputation?
This is bullshit.
As long as these Muhyiddin fanboys stay in cabinet, the more hypocritical they seem.
Zahid needs to grow some teloq and simply pull out of the gomen NOW.
Let the snakes expose themselves.
Actually, since you published this blog, PAS has confirmed they are going with PPBM.
They have even formed a committee for the election.
So no more space for Umno.
I think Umno is still going to emerge as winner.
PPBM is basically worthless, no grassroots.
PAS can win under 20 seats in PN. Only in 3 states. The PN total will be less than Umno's total, by a long way.
Umno will easily win 60 seats. The "stolen" seats are Umno strongholds, and the majority of Umno voters are very, very pissed off with Parti Bunga.
Then Umno has choices.
They can ally with PKR, Amanah and GPS (and whatever the smaller parties can bring.) DAP may opt to provide "confidence and supply" only.
The maths is in their favour.
If Umno 60 plus PH 80 plus GPS 20 = 160 majority.
BTW, Abang Jo just fired a warning shot at Mookimak.
GPS is a lot more valuable than the Taliban.
The backdoor gang must be having sleepless nights.
Let's wait until PAS actually says it's breaking ties with Umno.Delete
They won't, as they are opportunistic pelacur (Ku Li was 100% right) who realise that they still need Umno votes more than whatever Bersatu can bring them.
But this two-timing cannot continue.
Hadi Ada Wang and PUS are clueless morons (just look at how Kelate has suffered under their "rule".)
I think they have miscalculated badly.
If Zahid is removed, then Tok Mat and the wing chiefs are completely anti-Bersatu (as are the Umno grassroots), and they have already "politely" told PAS to either decide, or fuck off. They are losing patience.
Boils down to this:
Umno, 3.3 million members.
PUS, barely one million members.
There is a reason why the Taliban have been confined to Kelate to most of the past 60 years.
Hadi Ada Wang's second big miscalculation:
Telling 18-20 year old voters they are "immature".
Those seven million new voters will take revenge on PUS for that.
Let's see if Moo backtracks on Undi18.Delete
To me, it's a big risk for him...I think the EC guys have their "orders" already...
"I suggest for you all to help support MCA and MIC which would defend your interests in a post-GE15 government, just like what they used to do before you all got united under DAP."
Errrrr, hello Annie, all non-Malays vote for DAP? Betul ke?
Only Cinabengs do, lah.
Some more, you think "Malaysia" is "Peninsula" only ke?
Our country has Eurasians, Sikhs, Indians, Kenyah, Kayan, Murut, Punan, Bisayah, Kelabit, Berawan, Penan, Orang Asli, Kadazan, Murut, Rungus, Tidong, Lun Bawang, and maybe 30 more.
None of these are Malays.
They have a diversity of choices to vote for.
But even if you just concentrate on "Peninsula" and just two races out of 40-plus races, I don't think it's wise for our Cinabeng/India friends to waste their votes on MCA and MIC at all.
They are just irrelevant lackeys. Unless those 2 parties can win 20 seats each (kah kah kah).
Cinabeng/India will continue to support PH, which makes strategic sense as your votes are embedded in a bargaining bloc of 90 MPs, rather than being lost in a puddle of 4 MPs, at the very most.
Voting MCA and MIC is like kencing in the Pacific Ocean.
Oh, ya, by saying non-Malays, I meant Chinese and Indians. Sorry, I tend to lump the rest of the Bumiputera as Malays. Well, as I said, I'm okay if Chinese and Indians choose to continue being united under DAP and its sidekicks and have their own "perpaduan ummah".Delete
no.2 - no way they will get 2/3. Sarawak parties will give them the middle finger if they try their shariah law > constitution bs. so it will never happen.ReplyDelete
no.3 - pkr wont break with dap/amanah. Dsai’s ultimate goal is PM - he wont allow pkr to be the small brother in that no.3 pact.
special mag 😂😂😂, prob not even worth a retort
no 2 - they will come to an understanding with the Sarawakians. Small matter. Sarawakians rather be in the Opposition along with BN and Pas rather than join PH in government, remember?Delete
no 3 - U really believe in Anwar...hehehe
Hmmmm... mcm ada satu lagi route 4 : PN&PH tiba-tiba keluar dakyah bergabung kembali.ReplyDelete
ajinomoto sikit utk menambat hati penyokong masing2. tidak mustahil kan.
PAS wants to live under DAP's armpits again? Sweet.Delete
And Azmin and gang go back under Anwar's....
Er, possible but I don't think so.
Come what may, for me no Najib & no Zahid. If umno still insists on these two munafiks, then no umno.ReplyDelete
Kes masih berjalan mu dah hukum mereka nu. Amboi kamu Tuan Hakim jenis ape ni? Ada apa2 skeleton hang dok sorok ke?
Bossku dn Zahid tu, lamai olang tidoq dok mamai tiap malam asyik sebut nama mrk berdua ni? Byk rahsia2 dalam kelambu, dalam closet mrk tau baik yg berlaku dlm atau luaq negara. Itu sbbnya lamai mau kasi lenyapkn mrk tau dak??
Satu dunia rata2 sikalang cases of racial hatred towards Asians sedang mula meningkat?? Apatah siTrump tu label Covid 19 as "Chinese virus". Nak reda bukan mudah.
So Apek2 DAP jgn sombong sgt ya.. sini olang talak suka sana sana pun olang talak suka.. you think those racist bother to check yr passport ke? Klo tgk video2, 1st thing dey wl shout "we dont want u here, go back to your own country!" So be wise ya.
Those BN/PN Ministers/Dep dn GLC heads.. Tak payah nak tunjuk eksyen sgt dgn akar umbi dan perwakilan2. You are nobody without them. Nak keep yr position silakan, GE15 nama hangpa tidak dcalonkan padan muka.
Professor Nasi Lemak
PNLB @ 21:38,Delete
Apa benda ko merepek ni?? Mabuk ketum ke or too much dedak?
"Those BN/PN Ministers/Dep dn GLC heads.. Tak payah nak tunjuk eksyen sgt dgn akar umbi dan perwakilan2. You are nobody without them. Nak keep yr position silakan, GE15 nama hangpa tidak dcalonkan padan muka."Delete
Tepukan gemuruh utk Prof. Nasi Lemak.
This statement is 100% tepat.
To me... unless they chuck those 'kluster mahkamah' into the longkang... no matter what 'route' UMNO will likely pick... post GE15, they would stand no chance of becoming a formidable force in bargaining for the top post.
"If Umno is successful, we will be back to how it was pre-GE14 when the country was govern by a moderate multi-racial coalition."
I don't think so.
Like PAS, when they're weak, UMNO will resort to race & religion, both becoming more extreme than ever.
Hence... to garner Malay votes... Zahid's trumpet of strengthening the Syariah Laws, in view of recent High Court decisions on the use of Allah & Federal Court declaration that Selangor Syariah Law criminalising unnatural sex was unconstitutional.
"The Sarawakian parties will join them to form a government which is likely to have a two third majority in parliament."
Come on... that would be very stupid of those 'Sarawakian parties'... after joining UMNO & PAS, enabling BN to achieve two third majority so that they can strengthen Syariah Laws in earnest... to the scorn of MCA, MIC, Gerakan and majority non-Muslim Bumiputeras in Sabah & Sarawak.
"I suggest for you all to help support MCA and MIC which would defend your interests in a post-GE15 government, just like what they used to do before you all got united under DAP."
You must have forgotten that in GE14, MCA and UMNO were pro-China. While UMNO use to invite CCP (Chinese Communist Party) members as observers to their AGM or PAU, MCA make-use photo of their President shaking hands with CCP's Life Long President on campaign billboards.
Mind you... MCA was also known to have Political Party-to-Party relationship with the CCP... WTF!!!
On the flip-side, DAP then... just like you, Annie... was anti-China, especially on CCP's policies in Hong Kong & Taiwan... and that was also why CCP mistrust PH gomen then, with DAP in Government.
My prediction... come GE15... MCA & MIC will most likely be wiped out, unless they are given some Malay majority constituent to contest.
Therefore, I predict DAP will retain its 42 MP seats and will most probably gains 3 ~ 5 more, if they decide to nominate more Malays as MP or ADUNs in GE15... or Amanah and Pejuang were granted permission to contest under DAP's banner.
In that ways, DAP will be more multi-racial and palatable to the Malay voters.
If UMNO can 'secretly' work with DAP to topple Perak's MB Faizal Azumu, I see no reason why Dr.M or Mat Sabu cannot cooperate with DAP to topple traitors who use the same 'Cash is King' policies as the Kleptocrats once did to cling to power.
- I think you underestimate the kluster mahkamah too much, esp Najib's current popularity.
- Sarawakians are smart people and can decide what's best for them. That's why they didn't join PH after it won GE14.
- MCA and MIC were already wiped out in GE14. They are just alternatives for Chinese and Indians if they wish to be part of the next government. Dont want also doesnt matter.
- DAP had already maxed out in GE14. They cant win more seats without eating into PKR's marginal constituencies. They can place Malay candidates but only in Chinese majority areas as they will get slaughtered in Malay territories.
- Dr Mahathir is not a factor anymore while Mat Sabu and Amanah gang will be wiped out.
Unfortunately I agree with Annie re: Jibby. If you see the recent poll, he still has very high support among Malays.Delete
Mahkamah or not, he is way more popular than anyone in the cluster dedak@cabinet. Even more than his cousin.
On YouTube few days ago even Musa Hitam said Najib was a good PM...EXCEPT - EXCEPT - for 1MDB.
Hmmmmmm...not sure, because a lot of abuse of police power etc. happened under him.
I guess people remember BR1M more? Oh well.
First route - still corrupt led umno will lost big timeReplyDelete
Second route - may win big but pas will not agree with this route as they know areogant, corrupt and opportunist umno will kick them out after victory. Pas will do better with bersatu.
Third route - may win but still no stability as anwar will want to become pm and a case of tidur sebantal mimpi lain2. What more pkr is a multiracial party. Umno a malay based political party led by multiracial party wont do.
The best way, umno get rid of corrupt leader. Apologize to malaysian for the mistake by letting corrupt leader ride on umno for personal gain and introduce honest leader, not corrupt, kaki bodek bermuka2 and opportunist leader. Umno as institution is more important than individual.
Chances very unlikely. Umno is a gone case with the kind of people in umno. Uncapable, no brain, selfish. Good luck tho.
Well, for people like you, I would say - Just wait and see. No point me explaining too much.Delete
Lets see annie. I heard some of my friend boasting about how confident they are prior to ge14 that bn will remain as a government. :)Delete
Exactly. Ppl tend to get into denial mode.Delete
Your selfish president is facing corruption charges and yet clinging to the post and party to selamatkan diri.Delete
Your penasihat has been found guilty snd acting like he is the hero.
Your ketua pemuda takda isi only know how to shout against other party
Your nampak macam bijak ketua penerangan is talking about job guarantee policy. Kahkahkah. Where is this guy graduating from?
Your party members mostly pak turut tak tau apa2 are now suffering badly especially during covid pandemic. Their life quality is not improving worst deteriorating.
People outside making progress while malaysian terpaksa menanggung kutu berahak ahli politik yang pentingksn diri dan tak taubawa malaysia ke arah kemajuan.
I'm not an Umno member. So, those ppl you mentioned are not mine. Thank you.Delete
FITNAH PREBET ADAM DAN CINCIN ROSMAH.ReplyDelete
Selama ini cerita yang tersohor tentang Prebet Adam mengamuk kerana adiknya dibunuh Al Marhum Baginda adalah PALSU.
Itulah yang ingin saya bawa para pembaca kepada masalah kita semua. TERLALU mudah percaya cerita sensasi yang PALSU.
Malah ada juga orang menerbitkan dokumentari dengan jalan cerita palsu sedemikian tanpa ada rasa bersalah untuk membetulkannya.
Kita menerima bulat-bulat cerita sedemikian. Jika kita di antara orang yang masih menyebarkan cerita seperti ini, apakah ada peluang untuk kita mengadap Baginda Tuanku bagi tujuan meminta maaf di atas FITNAH kita? Jangan kita ambil mudah. Tuanku sudah mangkat. Cerita palsu yang dipanjangkan oleh kita sebagai penyambung fitnah itu kita tanggunglah sendiri.
Inilah KEGANASAN PERSEPSI atau Terrorisme Persepsi (Perception Terrorism). Gambaran persepsi buruk dilemparkan. BUKTI? Tidakk ada langsung! Namun ianya tetap ditularkan sehingga orang ramai menerimanya semacam suatu fakta yang benar.
Akhirnya inilah kesan … Hampir Seluruh Rakyat Hina Dan Kutuk Al Marhum Tuanku
Dan begitulah saban hari menerima berita tanpa usul periksa kita menyambungnya dengan menyebar perkara yang kita sendiri tidak tahu kebenarannya. Malah kita engkar dengan suruhan Allah S.W.T. untuk “tabayyun”.
Wahai orang-orang yang beriman! Jika datang kepada kamu seorang fasik membawa sesuatu berita, maka “TABAYYUN” selidikilah (untuk menentukan) kebenarannya, supaya kamu tidak menimpakan sesuatu kaum dengan perkara yang tidak diingini dengan sebab kejahilan kamu (mengenainya) sehingga menjadikan kamu menyesali apa yang kamu telah lakukan. (al-Hujurat: 6)
Begitulah juga, apabila kita dapat cerita sensasi anak Baginda Sultan Selangor masuk Kristian, kita pun sebar. SAH PALSU – malah diperakui sendiri mereka bahawa sumber cerita itu adalah direka-reka dari agen MOSSAD. [Baca: World News Daily Report – PALSU !!!]
Begitulah juga dengan cerita CINCIN ROSMAH. Riuh seluruh Malaysia, orang ramai kutuk DS Rosmah yang beli CINCIN MAHAL RM24juta. (Baca cerita pembicaraan Mahkamah Cincin Rosmah] Sehingga hari ini masih lagi orang sebar cerita ini. Malah, masih ramai ahli politik pembangkang gunakan modal ini untuk kutuk Rosmah.
Yang sebenarnya, PEMFITNAH yang menyebarkannya sudahpun mengaku di Mahkamah (18 bulan yang lampau) bahawa dia hanya bergurau. Malah RAFIZI sendiri yang mengaku bahawa KERJA DIA IALAH MENGHASUT.
Alfatihah pada Prebet Adam - kecundang angkara fitnah
Fourth Route. It is going to be a hung parliament taking the same route as what is happening now. Horse trading, jump ship, marriott move and what else is new?ReplyDelete
No way BN is going into the battlefield captained by a frail and incompetent general who can't even save his own neck. Whichever route BN may choose, the incumbent general must be replaced first so as for the new blood to take full charge and increase the chances of winning the battle ahead. Looking at the current situation, the useless general is letting things out in dribs and drabs without having a firm grip on Umno let alone BN.ReplyDelete
At the moment, the ppbm mixbag hotpotch is clinging on to dear life. The clock is ticking before the final hour of death by implosion &/or ripped apart from the inside out. The best possible outcome for ppbm is Umno' Route 4: Umno re-opening up for ppbm individual members who have reached the end of the line to return to it, pre or post election. As for Umno's doomsayers i have this to say to them: Malays will come out in droves to save Umno IF & WHEN they perceive Umno's impending doom. For a simple reason: look around and you will see that nobody can guarantee Malay rights better than Umno (ppbm does not even try to pretend to be a malay party anymore)ReplyDelete
easy. when every other alternative / route fails,ReplyDelete
Yep, it's over...ReplyDelete
"JOHOR BARU, March 31 — Johor Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) division chief Datuk Osman Sapian today said that his party has decided to cease all cooperation with Umno in the state and will contest the next general election without the Malay nationalist party as an ally.
He said Bersatu will now focus on strengthening their cooperation with PAS and Gerakan who are formal partners in the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.
“The decision made at both the Johor Bersatu and also state PN meeting has decided that Bersatu will effectively cease any political cooperation with Umno for the state.
“However, this decision will not affect the current state PN government in Johor that is led by Umno’s Datuk Hasni Mohammad who is the mentri besar,” Osman told Malay Mail after attending the Johor Bersatu leadership meeting and also the state PN meeting that was chaired by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in Zenith Hotel, Putrajaya earlier today.
For Johor Bersatu, all 26 of its division chiefs or deputies were present.
Besides the decision to end all cooperation with Umno, Osman said that Bersatu and its other partners in the PN coalition have agreed that they will contest in all 56 state and 26 federal seats."
At this point, PAS cannot back out.
It has already berjimak kow2 with Bersatay.
You think they can now run to Umno's embrace?
No way, Jose.
Wayang Kerala sudah start. Jho Lo bertukar jadi beruang, Justo pun lesap tak tahu khabar berita.ReplyDelete
Dalam beratus orang yang dicari, tiga individu kini menjadi tumpuan pihak berkuasa tempatan kerana mempunyai waran tangkap ekoran gagal hadir ke mahkamah dan terlibat dengan kes jenayah komersial terbesar di negara ini.
Mereka ialah usahawan kosmetik kontroversi, Muhammad Sajjad Kamaruzzaman, 36, pengasas Sugarbook, Chan Eu Boon, 34, dan ketua sindiket pengubahan wang haram terbesar, Datuk Seri Nicky Liow Soon Hee, 33.
Ketiga-tiga mereka ini dicari kerana sehingga kini pihak berkuasa masih belum menemui mereka sama ada kekurangan maklumat mahupun ada tali barut yang memberi maklumat mengenai operasi yang dilakukan.
some "thaik level blogger never laernt. sandiwara "foreplay" sebelum erlections PRU 15.ReplyDelete
like the PRK sandakan while semburit flaccid elerction in four seasons hafiz.