Umno's three routes

 This is how I see it,

First Route - Umno and its BN allies going on their own in GE15.

They may just be able to form a government provided they could defeat PAS in the Malay states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

The other two Malay states of Pahang and Perlis should already be in their bag.

This means they need to convince the Malays to give it an all out support.

They may very well form a government with support from the Sarawakian parties, as in the past.

I believe PH will retain most of their urban seats as the non-Malays will likely to continue their support for them.

PN will either be wiped out or manage to break the Malay vote bank and allow PH to win as it was in 2018. 

Pribumi Bersatu is nonetheless almost certain to lose all of its seats to Umno. 

The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is between 60 and 70 per cent. 

If Umno is successful, we will be back to how it was pre-GE14 when the country was govern by a moderate multi-racial coalition.

Second Route - Umno and its BN allies combined with PAS in GE15

They are going to win almost all of the Malay votes and wipe out Pribumi Bersatu and its mosquito parties allies.

The Sarawakian parties will join them to form a government which is likely to have a two third majority in parliament.

PH will still retain their urban seats courtesy of non-Malay votes but will not be able to stop the formation of a strong Malay-Muslim-Bumiputera government.

For this one, the ball is with PAS. 

If they choose to join Umno and its gang, they will be part of the new government but if they decide to be with Pribumi Bersatu, they will sink with it. 

They will sink even if Umno and gang lose because of the split Malay votes and PH will not be nice at all with them once it is in power again.

The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is almost 100 per cent and the probability of them getting the two third majority government is about 70 per cent.

If Umno is successful with this one, then we will see even more pro-Malay/Islam/Bumiputera government policies. Umno's non-Malay allies, MCA and MIC will have a hard time trying to take care of their communities' interests.

And if the new government got that two third majority, we could almost certainly expect some constitutional amendments.

Oh, and they would also likely do a re-delineation of the electoral boundaries which ensure they will never lose for a very very long time.

Third Route - Umno and its BN allies going on their own in GE15 and get a new partner after that.

This one will depend on how many seats Umno and its BN allies will get.

If they win a lot, they will choose to approach PAS to get enough seats to form a government and we would get the scenario in Route Two.

If they win not so many, they may likely approach PKR to form a government.

I don't think they will ask DAP to join the club as PKR should have enough of the needed seats.

They are also not likely to approach Amanah as I think that party, along with Pribumi Bersatu will be wiped out in GE15.

Would PKR consider joining Umno and its allies to form a government?

This is what I think Anwar would say, "Saya sudah memikirkan semasak-masaknya dan mengambil keputusan bahawa PKR perlu mengambil jalan yang terbaik dan menjadi sebahagian dari kerajaan demi kepentingan rakyat."

Of course he would add some fancy Malay and Arabic words to it, as usual.

This is actually quite a good deal for Umno as it will be able to lead a government with a weak Opposition. 

PAS and DAP will be without credible allies and they can't work together due to past bad blood which caused the self-destruction of Pakatan Rakyat after GE13.

The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is about 95 per cent. 

The five per cent failure rate is if Anwar get stupid and grew some real conscience and stick with DAP. Well, in that case there are still PAS and individual MPs who may cross over "demi perpaduan ummah".

If Umno is successful with this scenario, we may either get the same stuff as the Second Route or something quite similar with First Route with PKR attached to it. 

Special message to non-Malay voters: 

Your best choice, I think is for Umno to go on the First Route. I suggest for you all to help support MCA and MIC which would defend your interests in a post-GE15 government, just like what they used to do before you all got united under DAP. Don't be angry ya, it's just my humble suggestion. You all can always choose to believe that DAP is your saviour and for that you will have Umno getting what it wants along Route Two or Three. I'm fine with that too. Ciao.