DAP's Liew Chin Tong to take on
MCA's Wee Ka Siong in Ayer Hitam
First, let us look at the facts during the last general election in 2013.
P148 Ayer Hitam
Wee Ka Siong (BN-MCA) 22,045 58.4 percent
Hu Pang Chaw (PR-Pas) 14,735 39.0 percent
Wee Ka Siong won with a majority of 7,310
Racial composition of the 42,913 electorates -
Malays (56 percent), Chinese (38 per cent), Indians (4 percent)
Ka Siong, who is the deputy MCA president has been the Malay-majority Ayer Hitam MP since 2004.
Chin Tong won in nearby Chinese-majority Kluang in 2013 by beating prominent MCA leader Hou Kok Chun by a majority of 7,350. Kluang, which is my hometown has almost double the size of electorate compared to Ayer Hitam at that time. Chin Tong is formerly the MP of Bukit Bendera in Penang. He won there in 2008.
In my opinion, Chin Tong's move to the Malay-majority Ayer Hitam for the coming GE14 is as important as the move by former Johor MB TS Abdul Ghani Othman to contest the Chinese-majority Gelang Patah against DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang in GE13.
Ghani became the first Umno leader to do that in an attempt to stop the Chinese tsunami of 2013.
Chin Tong is trying to do about the same this time, but the other way around.
A DAP guy contesting in a Malay majority constituency in Johor, the state known as the tiang seri of Umno.
I agree with Lim Guan Eng on this,
Pakatan's dream lives or dies on Ayer Hitam result
They are banking on a Malay tsunami, or at least a significant shift to their side among the Malay electorate.
If Chin Tong can pull this one off in Ayer Hitam, then that means Pakatan stands a good chance to win most of the crucial semi-urban constituencies.
Yup, if he wins there, that's the end of Umno's dominance in my home state.
And more importantly, if Umno loses in Johor, that means it's going to lose elsewhere too.
Of course, if Wee Ka Siong losses there despite the Malay majority votes, that's the end of MCA too.
Still, it puzzles me that Chin Tong dares to make the move in the first place as it is very risky for him.
He may had done his calculations, which he is good at, and the results indicated that he has a chance to win.
But, Ayer Hitam actually has among the best BN election machinery in Johor led by its Umno division chief Samsol Bari Jamali, who is also the party's current state information chief.
I personally saw him in action in GE13 and I can confirm that the guy is good.
I was told by those on the ground in Ayer Hitam that Samsol Bari is among the few Umno division leaders who still apply the very effective micro management strategy employed by Johor Umno during the previous general elections.
The strategy was perfected during Ghani's leadership where emphasis was given for the leaders to go all the way down to the kawasan peti undi to make sure all the problems of the electorate were seen and solved.
I was made to understand that most other Johor BN leaders are using a different strategy under their current boss DS Mohamed Khaled Nordin but I'm not sure what it is.
Whatever it is, a friend who actually talked to Samsol Bari a few days ago told me last night that the guy is confident that Chin Tong has had his calculations wrong about Ayer Hitam.
That, we have to simply wait and see.
Whatever it is, I'm quite sure Ayer Hitam will be the most important fight of GE14.
I'm going to give special attention to it.
jho low penting ke Malaysia lebih pentingReplyDelete
If the Malays still want to vote in the same government knowing that their MO1 is so tainted on suspicion of corruption and ridiculed around the world then good for them. They deserve what they get.ReplyDelete
It would be interesting to see the outcome with that kind of demographic.
But, it would be a big of a deal.
Bottom line it is just one seat of many.
PAS is not strong in Johor. So, it will be a pure fight between BN and PR.
I tried to comment, four times, on your last post "DAP's image, Ong Kian Ming and a bit of Sajat" but kept getting interrupted and losing what I had written so I gave up :(
Bloody work!! I hate it but it pays the bills - very well :)
//emphasis was given for the leaders to go all the way down to the kawasan peti undi to make sure all the problems of the electorate were seen and solved//
That is micromanagement indeed and I have to grudgingly admit it can be very effective if managed well.
// most other Johor BN leaders are using a different strategy under their current boss DS Mohamed Khaled Nordin but I'm not sure what it is//
Let me guess what that "different strategy" might be - an additional RM50 for duit minyak and an additional RM50 for duit minum ?
Pakatan is as good as dead in the water against that kind of strategy.
I will never forget that photo in GE13 of an UMNO politician in Kelantan with his pile of cash beside him.
//the guy is confident that Chin Tong has had his calculations wrong about Ayer Hitam.//
Come on, whatcha expect Samsol Bari to say? :)
I mean, if Hadi Awang can tell his followers that Parti Anak Syaitan could win more than 112 seats out of 130 seats contested, why shouldn't Samsol Bari believe that BN can retain Ayer Hitam?
But by the same token, why shouldn't Liew Chin Tong believe he can take Ayer HItam from BN, right? :)
Of cos, in LCT's case, one would think that DAP has made very careful calculations where one of their valuable assets, i.e. LCT, is concerned.
It is still a calculated gamble though for DAP.
Johor is a formidable challenge and according to you, Samsol Bari is a formidable strategist.
I do agree that it will be interesting to see what happens in Johor for GE14.
And dont 4get to add the free glasses n free petrol 4 capcai, the glasses r worth rm2Delete
Who are these anonymous putting comments...why dont show who you are...why be ananymous?ReplyDelete
What a self-centred comment. Coming out of nowhere but have a cheek to ask that kind of question?Delete
For your info, alll these ananymous commentators have being around for ages. Ever since this blog existed. If you’re not sure what’s going on, please keep your f**king mouth shut..
Wow...look at that response...haiyaa....come out and show yourself laaa....type saja berani...kah kah kahDelete
I dare you...tunjuk muka laaa....haiyaaa.. kalau ada berani laaa...tulis komen tapi tak mau org tau you siapa...hahaDelete
Haloo...haloo...mr ananymous...kasi tunjuk muka sikit...mau kenal la you sapa...hahahaDelete
I dare u, use your real name. Baru betul2 berani, otherwise start your own blog.Delete
Aiseh....i dare you..you dare me...come onnnn....mister anonymous.. come onnn.. peek a boooo....show yourselfDelete
Hanna Loves Kitties.Delete
With all due respect to you anon 1751 is right.Many of us here use anonymous for our comments for some reasons only known to the individual comentators.However,we do leave our signatures such as Gladiator,Prof Sawi,and for myself Prof Kangkung.
We have become 'friends' in this blog even though we never know each other's identity.
One thing I really respect about the comentators here,they never steal your nick name.No Prof Kangkung,so far.
Now this is a better response. Thanks for the explanation. Better than being told to fuck off by someone.Delete
Anonymous @ 21 March 2018 at 11:54,ReplyDelete
//PAS is not strong in Johor.//
Please lah, don't say hurtful things like that, ok?
Hadi Awang has already told everybody how PAS is going to win more then 112 seats and form government, OK?
Wait, wait, sorry, he has just said that Parti Anak Syaitan will be kingmakers in GE14.
To borrow a Christian phrase, Hadi Awang has, apparently, said that NOBODY shall come to Putrajaya but by Parti Anak Syaitan or words to that effect.
In other words,PAS are kingmakers lah :)
//it will be a pure fight between BN and PR.//
No, you are wrong!!
It is NOT a pure fight due to the presence of PAS in 3-cornered contests.
A vote for PAS is a vote for UMNO.
Only the most naive will not realise that :)
A vote for Amanah,Bersatu and PKR is a vote for DAPDelete
Anonymous @ 21 March 2018 at 12:17,ReplyDelete
//free petrol 4 capcai,//
Ah, but that free petrol is only to get to the polling booth.
Still need money to get home maaa.. hence additional RM50 duit minyak lah..
//the glasses r worth rm2//
Aiyah, don't like that one lah.
It's free and it's the thought that counts.
You must be Chinese and you don't understand how the local Malays think.
It's about showing respect even if the item seems inconsequential - the buah tangan thing.
BTW, do you think those dumb fucks... eeerrrr... sorry... I meant.. those esteemed voters would like some pretty sparkly glass beads as well?
They are beautiful, you know.
And free oso.
See? It's all about respect :)
Is it decent for the neddy to go up on stage just to receive a bag of rice, a kilo of flour n sugar a packet of cooking oil n envelope of 50 or 100 ringgit, sbb tu dlm islam ada sebut tangan kanan bri tangan kiri tk nmpkDelete
Air Hitam punya Bulayu manyak welcome itu Chin Tong maa aa, lia olang manyak nyampah itu sama Wee ka siong ,kasi menang undi Bulayu tapi mulut manyak busok pasat Bulayu lea aa.
Air Hitam punya Bulayu mesti manyak ingat punya maa aa.
This PRU14, for most people, is the last time to try to do anything about BN.
If clearing up of longkang, sounding out against pasar jual babi, muafakat for setting up or not an Indian kuil in the neighbourhood are making the peon happy and retain BN, well, peon has spoken and so be it.
A nation of peon, where sometimes talk very high moral quoting GOD'S WORDS and other times evil macam nak mampus, can go to hell together with their moronic amirulmukminin and the badak of their FLOM.
So what's so big deal for liew to contest in a malay heartland? It is just a choice presented to those people, whether they are free people with dignity or they are going to be peon forever?
It's a waste of time, Encik Liew. Why? These people are told that they were born with a set of conclusions, conclusions that could not be questioned and if they were questioned then they would not be what they are.
And they will be despised, as if they had committed treason against their own race.
Their conclusions about mei 13 and DAP are sadly some of those conclusions..
So do not seek to change what is impossible.
The Malays would, sadly, prefer to elect a corrupt Melayu (takpe dia makan dedak dia orang kita) than an honest pork eating, alcohol drinking Chinaman. That is the problem in this country....everything is looked through race/religion tinted glasses.ReplyDelete
Lai Panjang,you have a very simplistic view of Malay psyh.In ayer hitam a Chinese will be fighting against a chinese.assuming Pas will join the fight in ayer Hitam according to your argument Malays will be voting for Pas candidate.Delete
From past election results MCA candidates have greater chance of winning in Malay majority areas.
Who is more racist?A Malay or a Chinese?
The problem this time is that with the current opposition you maybe electing a lying, corrupt and arrogant pork eating and alcohol drinking Chinaman. So for the Malays that will be a no brainer.Delete
Orang MCA tak makan babi dan minum arak ke?Delete
Inilah masalahnya orang melayu nak bodohkan orang melayu.
Saya pun tak paham,
Bukan susah sangat, budak darjah enam pun boleh pikir.
Kalau ponteng sekolah, salah tak? Salah laa...
Kalau duit derma RM2.6 billion masuk akaun peribadi, salah tak?
Benda macam ini pun tak boleh nak pikir.
Susah sangat ke nak pikir.
Tak perlu pikir panjang-panjang benda yang senang.
Kalau orang ponteng sekolah, tak boleh cakap orang lain pun ponteng sekolah juga, jadi itu ponteng sekolah sebenarnya ok,.....
Kalau orang melayu ponteng sekolah boleh ke? Tak boleh.
Kalau ketua darjah ponteng sekolah, budak-budak lain lagilah ponteng sekolah.
Itu pun susah sangat nak pikir. Benda senang aje.
Macamana professor Kangkong, pun tak boleh pikir benda yang budak darjah enam pun boleh pikir.
Pendekata, orang melayu nak tunggu semua nak ranap, semua dah roboh barulah nak berubah.
Tidak apalah tunggulah......
Lai Panjang, have U talk to the Malays of Air Hitam ...?ReplyDelete
Talk to them and ask them ,than make your conlusion.
I hold on to Bill Gate's motto:
IF U ARE BORN POOR IT IS NOT YOUR MISTAKE,
BUT IF U DIE POOR, IT IS YOUR MISTAKE.
Anonymous @ 21 March 2018 at 19:18,ReplyDelete
//sbb tu dlm islam ada sebut tangan kanan bri tangan kiri tk nmpk//
Pls do not compare Islam to the bastardised beliefs of those in JAKIM and Parti Anak Syaitan, which are being forced onto Muslims in Malaysia.
In their perverted minds and with their poisonous propaganda, semua bolih.
These are people who want us to hate Islam and Muslims.
These are people who will stop at nothing to make Islam look barbaric and evil.
For example, why do you think people like Pastor Raymond Koh, Perlis activist Amri Che Mat, Pastor Joshua Hilmi and his wife Ruth Hilm have all disappeared?
Three days ago MH370 appeared in the news, that it could be found via Google Satellite Images.
Then the Ukrainian Pilot who shot down MH17 reportedly killed himself, also came out in the news three days ago.
The Prime Moron did not sound one word, nor would the government he led.
Instead, the peon of Malaysia are talking about turun padang, cuci longkang, sajat butat (bu.. h + p.. tat) neelofa punya purda, and all kinds of remeh temeh Bullshit.
And Azhar Idrus said that whoever not supporting Parti Anak Setan's effort to replace existing law with syariah law are Munafik, and he said Allah told him so.
If this is the way the Melayu Islam wants for their life, believing that forever Malaysia is going to be their playground while transit in this life before going to paradise beneath which rivers flow, and generations after generations of melayu will live in the semenanjung peacefully as a transit place, then truly, they must retain najib.
Anything not from TV3 , RTM aer fake news .
I think Johorean is somewhat different from the rest of Malaysia.
In, JB most of the Malays are very contented.
The fall of ringgit actually bring in more Singaporean to JB. Now is 1 Singapore dollar is RM3.
A lot of rich Malay Singaporean goes to Malay restaurant in JB and business is impoving. We can see them with their big motorcycles and cars especially in weekend.
A lot of Johorean also works in Spore and they get their money worth from the currency exchange.
Housing is very expensive in JB. A lot of Singaporean and Foreigners bought expensive condominium and houses, most of them worth more than RM1 million and more.
A lot of Malay folks rented apartment or houses at the outskirts of JB like Simpang Rengam or at the far edge of JB town further away from the city.
Most of JB folks have a happy life in JB. I think they dont really mind about the foreigner buying houses at Forest City, Iskandar and JB town or houses are expensive. They can just rent at the far edge of town and travel with motor kapcai to JB town.
Even if the Ringgit fall further, it might be good for Johorean as more foreighner will come.
So, I think it will very difficult for opposition life this Chin Tong to persuade happy and contented Johorean to change.
"Most of JB folks have a happy life in JB."
Manyak mimpi lor itu macam punya fikir , lu atak kasi tanya kaa JB punya olang ?.
Mungkin UMNO punya olang manyak pikir itu macam , ini kali kasi ubah lor rr.
A vote for UMNO-Najib, MCA, Gerakan and other BN component parties, including PAS, is a vote for Kleptocracy and Jho Low.
That also means we will continue to pay GST and prolong wastage and extravagant spending by the Kleptocrates.
#Hidup UMNO-Najib, Hidup Jho Low.
I hope DAP will not be overconfident.ReplyDelete
Detail study should be done on all aspects pertaining to all factors that will contribute to winning the Air Hitam seat..
LCT is groom to be the next Secretary General of DAP and the idea of contesting there is some sort of double edge weapon which I think everybody can make own conclusion.
The strength of coalition partners I think will be the prime factors esp this area is a majority Malay area.
Lately there were few incidents that had happened which were eroding the credibility of PH and this not a very good sign esp to the fence sitters.
I would like to advice to top.PH politicians to be more careful when making statements which I think.not.necessary for me.to.qoute as examples.I would like to suggest here public forums to be conducted by PH to explain the Manifesto so that the rakyat will understand and may accept them...
I think to most Johorean, and most malay folks, the most important thing is that JDT football to continue to win.
Housing price, food prices, job market, and all those 1MDB things is not really the most important for Johorean mind at the moment.
Even if the economy goes down, the currency slide much further, more and more foreigner will be able to buy houses and Forest City, Danga Bay, Wadi Hana, the new township at JB town, Horizan Hills and Iskandar and so forth.
Foreigners in Johor will drive up the economy in JB and Johorean can open restaurant. Restaurant business in Johor is florish at this moment.
Can we imagine if the ringgit slide further to 1 Singapore dollar to RM6 ringgit, more foreigner will come to buy houses and the restaurant business will be booming.
At this moment Johorean are quite happy, the JDT is winning most of the time and we are very proud as a bangsa Johor.
Menang solak kampog kasi gadai lor rr.
Saya setuju dengan Anon,Delete
Orang johor tak peduli soal harga barang naik, harga rumah naik, orang Spore beli rumah dekat Horizon hill dan Forest City tuuu.
Orang Johor pun tak peduli soal GST. .
Siapa yang dah gila dan bodoh sangat nak beli rumah berjuta dekat bandor JB tuu.
Orang melayu boleh sewa rumah dekat Sedenak, kampong air tawar kota tinggi, murah jee.
Orang DAP tak payahlah sibuk pasal perkara-perkara kecik harga barang naik, harga rumah naik. DAP tak payah sibuk dengan GST. Yang paling penting dan utama bagi orang Johor adalah pasukan JDT terus menang dan jadi juara.
Are you for real?Boleh bagi dekat kami apa yang awak ambil supaya kami semua boleh hidup dalam dunia khayalan awak.Delete
Sebenarnya orang Johor tak ade masalah.
Tun M sepatutnya berehat dan bercuti.
PM Najib yang ada sekarang cukup bagus dan terbaik.
Malaysia sekarang terkenal seluruh dunia di bawah Najib.
Apa sebenarnya masalah orang negeri Johor?
Memanglah harga rumah mahal, di Iskandar, di Danga Bay, Forest City, di Wadi Hana.
Buat apa orang melayu hendak beli rumah sedangkan rumah di Sedenak atau Air Tawar murah untuk disewa.
Kalau harga barang mahal, orang melayu perlu berjimat.
Mengikut nasihat Datin Rosmah Mansor, orang melayu perlu berjimat. Hari Raya cukup dua helai saja, jangan membazir.
Kita kena ikut nasihat orang supaya berjimat.
Kalau tak mampu beli kereta, pakai moto kapcai.
Kalau tak mampu nak kawin, sabar dulu. Kumpul dulu duit. Kawin pun jangan membazir, cukup sekadar yang ada.
Kalau kita biarkan PM Najib dan BN terus, sudah tentulah masa depan rakyat Johor terus terjamin.
Yang paling penting, orang Melayu perlu berjimat cermat, Jangan berhutang. Kalau tak mampu beli rumah, boleh sewa.
Apa sebenarnya masalah orang melayu? Tak ada.
Anonymous@ 22 March 2018 at 09:44,ReplyDelete
//I hope DAP will not be overconfident.//
It is highly possible that MCA will have to suck UMNO dick harder for:-
1/ the seat - UMNO might just just decide that Liew is a real threat and kick out MCA to field a Melayu candidate.
2/ votes - if MCA gets to keep the seat, it ain't gonna win that seat without UMNO support.
So if MCA gives a good blow job, it could kill off the DAP challenge.
DAP had better do it's numbers very carefully.
At the proverbial end of the day, DAP is taking a huge gamble and Liew is going "all in" for this poker hand.
With the demographic, 56% Malay and 38% chinese.
38% is quite a numbers of Chinese.
This DAP guy Chin Tong, is not stupid. I am sure he did his homework and gauge to sentiment of the Air hitam ground.
He did well in GE13, if not mistaken in Kluang.
There will be Malay votes leaning towards DAP if Pakatan Manage to convince the Air Hitam folks.
In this scenario, I think it would be good to use the PKR flag or Amanah Flag.
Pakatan might do this. They said they got plan B,C, D and E.
So this Chin Tong guy might contest under Pakatan rather than DAP.
This might change things.
Last time under Pakatan Rakyat, they did not strategise well because PAS always do not turn up for meeting.
Now under Pakatan Harapan, PAS no longer around, they can strategise better, so I believe they can come up with better plan, A to Z.
with malay votes fragmented, those who pakatan with DAP & hindraf will win this GE14 wink...ReplyDelete
menang terowong ayer hitam tergadai so Bodoh Nasional weekakaka songReplyDelete