Hung out with a close friend last night.
Mostly we were talking about some serious nonsense such as the meaning of love, troubled relationship, bastards who turned our life upside down, etc.
Despite all that, we also managed to talk a bit about politics.
I think I can share with you all some of my thoughts about what the two of us talked about.
My friend basically asked me two questions:
1. Will the apparent disagreement between Pakatan parties, particularly over hudud, lead to them breaking up, and the effect of their quarrel on the by-elections in Permatang Pauh and Rompin?
2. Does Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad be able to topple PM DS Najib Razak and what is the effect of his effort in the long run?
My answers were:
1. The Pakatan parties will mend their relations.
For me, their quarrel over hudud is a farce.
They just wanted to reassure their supporters of their either Islamic or secular credentials by arguing with each other over the whole thing.
They will be back honky dory together before the next general election which is just two and a half years from now.
By the way, I don't think the Chinese were really that scared of Pas' hudud.
My over 70 years old grandmother doesn't even mind if the Islamic criminal laws be imposed on her and other Chinese.
She told me the other day that she doesn't mind hands of robbers and rapists be chopped off even if they were Chinese.
Yes, I think the Chinese will still see a vote for Pas is a vote for DAP in the next general election.
As for the by-elections, the outcome is easily predictable.
- PKR president DS Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail will win in Permatang Pauh with more or less the same majority.
- BN will retain Rompin with lesser majority.
I'm not going to elaborate on my predictions as I'm still a supporter of the establishment and I don't want to demoralize BN election workers who are sincerely trying very hard now for their candidates.
2. Dr Mahathir will not be able to topple Najib for now.
The PM will get the necessary backing from Umno in the face of any immediate challenge by pretenders to his party presidency.
By the way, none of the available potential challengers are at this moment strong enough to garner enough support to go against Najib.
This however does not mean Najib's people should be happy and think they can go all out whacking Dr Mahathir.
If they do that, the end results will be disastrous.
Without Dr Mahathir's supporters and sympathizers, I believe BN will do very badly or even possibly lose in the next general election.
After that, Najib can no longer be the PM, and in a way Dr Mahathir will then be successful in removing him from the post.
Fighting Dr Mahathir the way Najib's people are doing now will not help Najib in the long run.
One way or another, Najib and his people have to find a way to appease Dr Mahathir and win back support from the former PM's followers.
They need to reason with Dr Mahathir instead of trying to whack him the way some Najib's people are doing now.
They were fools if they arrogantly thought that they can fight fire with fire when dealing with Dr Mahathir and then later on can win the next general election.
Najib's people should bear in mind that the onus is on their boss as PM and Umno president to make sure BN stays in power after the next general election.
Najib surely doesn't want history to remember him as being the last Umno president to be a PM after failing to unite his party and losing the middle ground.
In contrast, the almost 90-year-old Dr Mahathir is now just an ordinary citizen and Umno member.
He got nothing really to lose by going against Najib, which at the moment he believes is the right thing to do for the country.