Monday, 23 April 2018

Johor BN candidates list

I'm in Johor now but moving around.

So, can't write at the moment.

I'm putting this Johor BN list of candidates announced this morning for now and will comment later.

Just a note : The most significant name I think is the very last one on the list.

P140 – Segamat - Datuk Seri Dr S Subramaniam (MIC)
 N01 – Buluh  Kasap - Datuk Zahari Sarip  (UMNO)
 N02 – Jementah - Chiam Yok Meng (MCA)
 P141- Sekijang - Datuk Ayub Rahmat (UMNO)
 N03 – Pemanis - Khoo Shiaw Lee (Gerakan)
 N04 – Kemelah - Anuar Abd Manap (UMNO)
 P142 - Labis - Datuk Chua Tee Yong (MCA)
 N05 -Tenang - Mohd Azahar Ibrahim (UMNO)
 N06 – Bekok - Tan Chong (MCA)
 P143 - Pagoh - Ismail Mohamed (UMNO)
 N07 – Bukit Kepong - Mohd Noor Taib (UMNO)
 N08 – Bukit Pasir - Datuk Noriah Mahat (UMNO)
 P144 – Ledang - Datuk Dr Hamim Samuri (UMNO)
 N09 – Gambir - Datuk M. Asojan (MIC)
 N10 – Tangkak - Goh Tee Tee (MCA)
 N11 - Serom -  Datuk Abdull Rahim Talib (UMNO)
 P145 – Bakri - Koh Chon Chai (MCA)
 N12 – Bentayan - Lee Kim Heng (MCA) 
 N13 - Simpang Jeram - Mohd Radzi Md Amin (UMNO)
 N14 - Bukit Naning - Datuk Hassan Johari (UMNO)
 P146 – Muar - Datuk Seri Razali Ibrahim (UMNO)
 N15 - Maharani - Datuk Ashari Sharif (UMNO)
 N16 – Sungai Balang - Zaiton Ismail (UMNO)
 P147 – Parit Sulong  - Datuk Dr Noraini Ahmad (UMNO)
​​​​​​​N17 – Semerah - Mohd Ismail Roslan (UMNO)
 N18 - Sri Medan -  Datuk Zulkurnain Kamisan (UMNO)
 P148 – Ayer  Hitam - Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong (MCA)
 N19 – Yong Peng - Ling Tian Soon (MCA)
 N20 – Semarang - Datuk Samsolbari Jamali (UMNO)
 P149 - Sri Gading - Datuk Ab Aziz Kaprawi (UMNO)
​​​​​​​N21 – Parit Yaani - Soh Lip Yan (MCA)
 N22 – Parit Raja - Norashidah Ramli (UMNO)
 P150 – Batu Pahat - Haliza Abdullah (UMNO)
 N23 – Penggaram - Kang Beng Kuan (MCA) 
 N24 – Senggarang - Zaidi Japar (UMNO)
 N25 – Rengit - Ayub Jamil (UMNO)
 P151 – Simpang  Renggam -   Datuk Liang Teck Meng (Gerakan)
 N26 – Machap - Abd Taib Abu Bakar (UMNO)
 N27 – Layang Layang - Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi (UMNO)
 P152 – Kluang  - Gan Ping Shou @ Gan Ping Siew (MCA)
 N28 - Mengkibol - Chin Sim Lai (MCA)  
 N29 – Mahkota - ​​​​​​​Datuk Md Jais Sarday (UMNO)
 P153 – Sembrong  ​​- Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein (UMNO)
N30 – Paloh - Teoh Yap Kun (MCA)
 N31 – Kahang - R. Vidyananthan (MIC)
 P154 – Mersing - Datuk Dr Abdul Latiff Ahmad (UMNO)
 N32 – Endau - Alwiyah Talib (UMNO)
 N33 – Tenggaroh - K. Ravenkumar  (MIC)
 P155 – Tenggara - Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba (UMNO)
 N34 - Panti - Hahasrin Hashim (UMNO)
 N35 - Pasir Raja - Rashidah Ismail (UMNO)
 P156 –  Kota Tinggi - Datuk Halimah Mohamed Sadique (UMNO)
 N36 - Sedili - Rasman Ithnain (UMNO)
​​​​​​​N37 –  Johor Lama - Rosleli Jahari (UMNO)
 P157 - Pengerang - Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said (UMNO)
 N38 - Penawar - Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain (UMNO)
 N39 - Tanjung Surat - Datuk Syed Sis Syed Abdul Rahman (UMNO)
 P158 – Tebrau ​​​​​​​- Datuk Seri Dr Hou Kok Chung (MCA)
 N40 – Tiram - Datuk Maulizan Bujang (UMNO)
 N41 - Puteri Wangsa - Abd Aziz Tohak (UMNO)
 P159 - Pasir Gudang - Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin (UMNO)
 N42 – Johor Jaya - Datuk Tan Cher Puk (MCA) 
 N43 - Permas - Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin (UMNO)
 P160 - Johor Bahru - Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad (UMNO)
 N44 - Larkin - Datuk Yahya Jaáfar (UMNO)
 N45 - Stulang - Ang Boon Heng (MCA)
 P161 - Pulai  - Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed (UMNO)
 N46 - Perling - Wong You Fong (MCA)
 N47 - Kempas - Datuk Ramlee Bohani (UMNO) 
 P162 - Iskandar Puteri - Jason Teoh Sew Hock (MCA)
 N48 - Skudai - Datuk S. Kanan (MIC)
 N49 - Kota Iskandar - Mohammad Khairi A. Malik (UMNO)
 P163 –  Kulai - Tang Nai Soon (MCA)
 N50 - Bukit Permai - Ali Mazat Salleh (UMNO)
 N51 –  Bukit Batu - Teo Lee Ho (Gerakan)
 N52 - Senai - Shen Poh Kuan (MCA)
 P164 - Pontian - Datuk Seri Ahmad Maslan (UMNO)
 N53 - Benut - Datuk Ir. Hasni Mohammad (UMNO)
 N54 - Pulai Sebatang - Datuk Tee Siew Kiong (MCA)
 P165 - Tanjung Piai - Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng  (MCA)
 N55 - Pekan Nanas - Tan Eng Meng (MCA)
 N56 - Kukup - Datuk Md Othman Yusof (UMNO)

Maybe you all can read this again,

Saturday, 21 April 2018

Selangor Sultan is cool

I like this,

Selangor Sultan above politics & always impartial


Yes, that's the way it should be because ours is a constitutional monarchy.

It's not absolute monarchy like Brunei, okay.

Anyway, I always like Sultan of Selangor since back then.


He's cool.

Okay, he may not be perfect but I think he tried his best for his rakyat.

If he says he loves his rakyat, I would have believed him.

One thing for sure, I'm not aware of him taking advantage of his people in anyway.

For me, that's good enough.

Well, that's actually my only message for today.

Can't write much on GE14 for now because I'm still not on the ground yet.

Things are getting exciting, I guess.

Others were lucky because they got to see how things actually were and therefore could write properly about it.

Me, for now I have to agak-agak only.

You can read what I write but I don't blame you if you don't really believe what I wrote.

At least that's for now.

So, it's better for you all to read more of those written by the ones on the ground and see things for themselves.

I hope to go down to JB later.

See lah how.

For one thing, I have not yet decided whether to vote for Jazlan or Salahuddin in Pulai.

Want to see them in action on the ground first.

Seriously, I'm really politically neutral for now, like Sultan of Selangor.

Okay, at least I'm trying.

Thursday, 19 April 2018

Tok Moy likely to be the new Johor MB

I wrote this on April 3 2013, just a month before GE13,

Johor will have a new Menteri Besar 

excerpts,

For now, the leading contender for the Johor Menteri Besar post in the event BN retains power in the State is Datuk Md Othman Yusoff who is the Tanjong Piai Umno division chief and Kukup assemblyman.

Othman, who is a businessman by profession is said to be the preferred choice of the Johor palace.

As it turned out, it didn't happen and DS Mohamed Khaled Nordin became the MB while Othman didn't even defend his Kukup state seat.

Affectionately called Tok Moy, Othman instead became the executive director of Country Garden Pacificview Sdn Bhd.



I'm not really his fan but I have to admit that the guy is actually quite good with what he does and his relations with the Johor palace is still very good.

Here is a story of him in action from August last year,

Forest City on right track


Now I have been informed that Othman is once again a candidate for the Johor MB post.

The info I got seemed so credible that I'm now once again putting my bet on Othman being placed as a candidate for his old Kukup seat and then made the number one guy in Kota Iskandar after this coming GE14.

As for Khaled, I was told that he is going back to Putrajaya.

The only other Johor Umno leader who was said to be still a candidate for the job now is Ayer Hitam division chief Samsol Bari Jamali who is also the party's current state information chief.

So, you all can forget about what I wrote in this post on Nov 1 last year


,
That one tak boleh pakai punya.

Okay, all these provided BN wins in Johor. The likelihood of that happening is quite high now, actually.

Well, that's all I want to tell you all today.

Cheers.

Tuesday, 17 April 2018

No such thing as padi crisis

GUEST BLOGGER

By Lebai Sudin

Salam Sejahtera,

Dalam sibuk-sibuk nak PRU-14 ni, elok juga cerita lain sikit.

Asyik hal politik pun bosan juga. Lebih-lebih lagi tengok kerenah orang politik, yang dulu duduk semeja dah bergaduh dan lagi pelik, yang dulu bercakar kini berpeluk-peluk. Entah ye entah tidak.

Aku…tetap nak cerita pasal padi. Sebenarnya ada juga le kaitannya dengan PRU-14. Ada macam suatu usaha nak hangatkan isu padi, beras, LPN dan Bernas ketika musim pilihan raya ini. Macam nak menangguk, ambil kesempatan atau nak tumpang semangkuk.

Sebab itulah, secara berterusan Padi Rescue yang mengakui memperjuangkan industri padi dari semasa ke semasa membangkitkan tuntutan 14 perkaranya. Mereka kata nak bela nasib pesawah. Tapi 14 perkara itu paling pokok suruh kerajaan hidupkan semula LPN (Lembaga Padi Negara). Peliknya, LPN ketika wujud dulu, bukannya jaga soal pesawah, LPN jaga post harvest.

Samalah juga bila LPN jadi Bernas, ia jaga selepas tuai. Sebelum tuai, Kementerian Pertanian le…


Dalam bab pesawah ni, yang kononnya diperjuangkan oleh Padi Rescue (walhal ramai pengilang yang melibatkan diri atas kepentingan kilang mereka), aku ada terjumpa satu rencana video di facebook.

Nama facebook tu, Apa Khabar TV.

Musonnef Md Radzi, pengilang padi di belakang gerakan Padi Rescue ada ditemubual dalam video apa khabar TV ini. Beliau jadi jurucakap kepada gerakan Padi Rescue. Beliau bercakap soal nak bela pesawah, dan sempat dia selit pihaknya sebagai pengilang bagi platform kepada perjuangan pesawah.

Tapi video Apa Khabar TV ini memang adil. Musoneff bercerita tentang nasib petani, kesusahan petani sedangkan beliau bukan petani.

Menariknya, petani yang ditemubual oleh Apa Khabar memberi cerita berbeza. Dalam video yang sama, petani mengakui bahawa pendapatan mereka lumayan, ada yang RM5,000 dan RM15,000 sebulan. Ada yang dah miliki aset untuk urusan kerja sawah hampir setengah juta.

Mereka kata, yang susah ialah pesawah yang tidak turun ke sawah atau tidak memantau kerja-kerja di sawah. Pesawah yang rajin ke bendang dapat atasi masalah penyakit, serangga perosak, padi angin, sambau dan sebagainya.

Betullah, kalau tak pantau dan tengok sendiri, siapa yang pedulikan bendang kita. Siapa yang nak ambil tahu kena pastikan tiada serangga perosak seperti siput dan lain-lain.

Malah, dalam bidang apa pun, kita kena ambil tahu, kena terlibat dan kena pantau. Tak percaya tanyalah pemilik kedai mamak. Kalau biar kepada pekerja sahaja uruskan dari A hingga Z, melingkuplah.

Aku ada kawan operator stesen minyak. Dia memantau urusan kaunter setiap hari. Kalau tidak pasti akan berlaku masalah. Aku juga ada kawan yang berniaga pasar mini, tetapi gagal apabila semua urusan serah kepada pekerja.

Maka, bidang apa pun, setidak-tidaknya kena pantau sendiri.

Kalau tidak macam mana Petani Mahu Jadi Tuan Padi, Tuan Beras seperti yang dikehendaki oleh video dalam facebook Padi Rescue. Mahu jadi tuan, tapi orang lain usahakan bendangnya dan semua urusan berkaitan. Dia duduk goyang kaki. Apabila padi dituai dengan mesin dan diangkut oleh lori, dia tak ikut ke kilang pun. Macam mana dia nak tahu kualiti padinya. Boleh ke begitu?

Aku bukan mahu merendah-rendahkan sesiapa, namun video Apa Khabar TV jelas menunjukkan macam mana petani berjaya. Tontonlah, kita akan faham mengenai di mana ada kemajuan di situ ada jalan.

Kalau tonton video itu, ada nama kumpulan Kelab Jelapang Padi. Mereka berjaya sebagai pesawah dan bersedia untuk mengongsikan ilmu kepada orang lain. Orang kuat kelab itu, Jaafar Zakaria (Lebih dikenali sebagai Bang Chin), mengalu-alukan orang yang sudi belajar ilmu mengurus sawah. Beliau ada tapak ujian (test plot) padi di halaman rumahnya.

Katanya, mereka yang sambil lewa bersawah akan berdepan beberapa permasalahan. Apabila sawah tidak dijaga dengan betul (bukan lepas tanam biar tunggu hingga padi masak), hasilnya tidak menguntungkan. Padi yang rosak dan padi muda akan kena pemotongan tinggi.

Tahun lalu, Bang Chin menerima anugerah Outstanding Rice Farmer dari International Rice Institute, di Manila. Siapa kata penanam padi tak boleh berjaya dan hanya tertekan hidupnya?

Dalam kawasan MADA sekarang, ada 6,000 pesawah muda berbanding 55,000 petani yang usahakan bendang. Anak-anak muda ini yakin bahawa mereka boleh maju dengan syarat buat kerja dengan betul. Bukan hanya mengharapkan orang lain buatkan untuk kita dan lebih buruk lagi asyik cari salah orang lain, tapi kelemahan sendiri…

Itu pasal malas aku nak ulas tuntutan 14 perkara Padi Rescue…Ketika LPN ditubuhkan dulu pun tujuannya mengurus selepas tuai. Peranan itu dilaksanakan Bernas sehingga ke hari ini. Malah, Bernas adalah pembeli terakhir hasil petani.

Maknanya kalau tidak ada pihak yang beli hasil petani, tak kiralah apa sebabnya (biasanya soal mutu padi yang rendah), Bernas mesti beli. Arahan kerajaan dalam hal ini tiada tolak ansur. Bukankah mereka ini terbela? Lantas perlulah mereka ini berusaha, agar pembelaan itu menjadi lebih bermakna.

Monday, 16 April 2018

You want Khaled or Ghani to fight Muhyiddin in Gambir?

This is interesting,

Muhyiddin hints at running for Gambir state seat


Well, of course the follow up story is this

Johor BN determines to ensure Muhyiddin's defeat

Typical Khaled Nordin's statement.

Anyway, I think Muhyiddin's possible move to Gambir has the same reasoning as my thoughts in my last post


Yup, if Muhyiddin really decides to contest that state seat, then it's an obvious move to prepare himself to be the first Pakatan Harapan menteri besar of Johor.

As for the parliament seat he said he's contesting, I'm quite sure that he will defend Pagoh.

There were talks that he's to contest Muar which BN is holding by a slim majority in 2013 but that one was given to the boy Syed Saddiq.

I doubt Muhyiddin will risk going to another parliamentary constituency where his chances of winning are not so reassuring.

Back to that Gambir seat, it should be noted that in 2013,  Johor MIC chief M. Asojan received 8,705 votes (46.6 per cent) to win by a razor thin majority of 310 against the then Johor Pas chief Mahfodz Mohamed who received 8,395 votes (44.9 per cent) and two independant candidates. At that time, Gambir had 21,382 voters consisting Malays (55 per cent) Chinese (40 per cent) and Indians (4 per cent).

In the previous general election in 2008, Asojan had won in Gambir by a majority of 2,463 after he received 8,190 votes (58.8 per cent) as compared to Pas candidate Kasim Ibrahim who received 5,727 votes (41.1 per cent). That year, Gambir had 18,724 voters with almost the same racial demographic as in 2013.

So, I think if Muhyiddin is really going to Gambir against Asojan, his chances of winning are actually quite good.

As it goes, even if Pakatan fails to capture Putrajaya but captures Johor, Muhyiddin can become the state's menteri besar again.

That would be quite something, I think.

For instance, I do wonder how will be the relations between a Pakatan state government led by Muhyiddin and the Johor palace.

For context, read this,

A tale of two former MBs


That would be awkward, I think.

Well, whatever it is, I still think the chances of Pakatan capturing Johor are quite slim. As I wrote previously, I only gave at most 35 per cent of that happening.

Bear in mind that in 2013, about 83 per cent of Malays who voted in Johor sided with BN. This has always been the case in Johor, which is the Umno's tiang seri.

However, I think Johor BN should not rest on its laurels and instead go head on against the Pakatan threat.

Well, the best should be, in my humble opinion, for Khaled himself to go against Muhyiddin in Gambir.

Seriously okay.

After all, the guy said Johor BN will ensure Muhyiddin's defeat.

What better way than he himself defeating Muhyiddin, right?

Hey, if former MB TS Abdul Ghani Othman can face off with DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang in the Chinese majority Gelang Patah in 2013, surely Khaled can do the same with Muhyiddin this time. At least it would be a more even fight as Gambir is a Malay majority constituency.

If Ghani can be so brave to lead the charge at the frontline, surely Khaled can do the same instead of contesting a safe seat.

Well, I really hope Khaled is brave too.

Really.

Interestingly, Gambir is part of Ledang, which Umno division used to be headed by Ghani.

Hmmm....unless Khaled wants to get Ghani out of retirement to fight Muhyiddin there for him....interesting isn't it?

That's a possibility, right?
Khaled and Ghani at Saujana on the day Johor BN announced its candidates for the 2004 general election

Hmmm....I don't think so. That's not going to happen.

Ghani may even get angry with me for suggesting it.

Sorry Datuk Ghani.

I''m just kidding a bit on that part, okay.

Well, I still prefer Khaled to fight Muhyiddin in Gambir, anyway.

That would be a real macho fight for the Johor MB seat, don't you think?

Whatever it is, I think this potential Muhyiddin versus Khaled in Gambir may even eclipse that fight at


This build up for the Battle of Johor is getting very interesting indeed.

Saturday, 14 April 2018

The next best thing for Pakatan - capturing Johor

In my  last post I predicted that

BN will win

Just now someone asked me via WhatsApp whether Pakatan still have any chance at all.

This is my reply,

-  Not impossible but it will be an upset if opposition wins. They need to totally overwhelm BN in all the states in the West coast to do that. Pakatan is very weak in the east coast and Sabah Sarawak.

Well, the chances of Pakatan to "totally overwhelm" BN in the West coast are actually rather slim, if you asked me.

They may win quite a lot of seats and even be dominant in Penang, Selangor or even Kedah, but that most likely will not be good enough.

That, unless something spectacularly incredible happen in the East coast and Sabah.

Sarawak is totally BN's, okay.

So, really, despite me not yet being on the ground, I can calculate that the odds are against a Pakatan's victory.

Nonetheless, I'm of the opinion that the next best thing Pakatan could achieve is to capture Johor, the birthplace of Umno.

Seriously, I don't think Umno will ever recover if Johor falls.

If I'm a Pakatan strategist, I would throw all I have into the fight in Johor.

Of course it's not going to be easy, but I think the chances of Pakatan capturing Johor are actually better than the chances of it capturing Putrajaya.

Further more, looking at the BN's preparations for GE14 in Johor so far, I don't think it will do any better than in 2013.

If Pakatan pushes hard enough, I think an upset could be possible.

Still, the chances of this happening are just about 35 per cent, at most.


Pakatan parties, with the exception of DAP simply do not have the proper machinery or even enough credible candidates in Johor.

This is especially so in the case of Pribumi, which will contest the most number of seats in Johor from among the Pakatan component parties.

Most are ex-Umno people who are no longer in  mainstream politics.

Honestly, I prefer the Amanah people in Johor than those from Pribumi. I personally knew some of the Amanah people there and I think that they are quite decent people.

Therefore, I think Pakatan would have better chance if Amanah lead the charge instead of Pribumi, especially in trying to break the Umno's stranglehold on the Johorean Malays vote bank, which remains solid till the last general election in 2013.

But that's just me and my thoughts.

Doesn't really matter, okay.

So, yes, if I'm a Pakatan supporter I would not despair if the opposition coalition losses GE14 provided that it wins in Johor.

Imagine this, Pakatan controlling the three richest states in the country - Selangor, Penang and Johor.

Okay, they may also capture Kedah and Perak too.

Not bad, what.

For one thing, losing Johor will at least force Umno to do something drastic.

It can't remains the way it is now after losing its birth place and once strongest fortress.

It has to change for the better.

All the shits within it must go.

They have to get rid of the ugly faces who caused Umno to be hated so much by so many people that they even lose Johor on top of everything else.

Well, see lah how.

I will only be able to go on the ground just before nomination day.

Quite frustrating, actually, being forced to remain cooped up in office at a time like this.

But what to do....

Have to earn a living, okay.

Thursday, 12 April 2018

BN will win....for now

This is my short WhatsApp conversation with a foreigner friend when they dissolved the parliament that day,


My friend is a keen observer of Malaysian politics due to his business interests here.

The guy is totally objective in his assessments.

And yes, both of us agreed that BN will likely win this general election.

I said the same at my school alumni WhatsApp group, which is totally dominated by Pakatan supporters.

Surprisingly, none of them tried to dispute me.

I just politely told them to get real.

Despite all the noises they made, they have to admit that the fight will largely be confined only in the West coast of the Peninsular.

BN is still strong in the East coast and almost totally dominant in Sabah and Sarawak.

I'm quite sure BN will have not much problem in Pahang and Terengganu where Pakatan's presence is rather limited. It may even wrest Kelantan from the weakened Pas.

Pakatan's sure bet is actually only Penang, Selangor and maybe Kedah.

Okay, they will also win most of the Federal Territories parliamentary seats in the Klang Valley.

But that's about it.

Yes, the fight will be intense in Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor but realistically we have to admit that BN still have the edge over Pakatan in those states.

Well, unless Pakatan can capture ALL these four states, which I highly doubt, then BN will win.

Seriously, I can't see it any other way.

All that despite the issues being highlighted by Pakatan.

So, that's my thought of GE14 for now.

But then again, I'm making this assessment without going on the ground yet.

I'm a totally armchair observer for now.

Still need to work to earn a living.

No dedak for me, okay.

Well, I'm hoping to get some time off from work soon to get on the ground before polling day.

The least I hope to do is to go around my home state Johor and see for myself how things are,

Then only I can be really sure about what I write.

Who knows, maybe I'm wrong.

See lah how.