Umno's three routes

 This is how I see it,

First Route - Umno and its BN allies going on their own in GE15.

They may just be able to form a government provided they could defeat PAS in the Malay states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

The other two Malay states of Pahang and Perlis should already be in their bag.

This means they need to convince the Malays to give it an all out support.

They may very well form a government with support from the Sarawakian parties, as in the past.

I believe PH will retain most of their urban seats as the non-Malays will likely to continue their support for them.

PN will either be wiped out or manage to break the Malay vote bank and allow PH to win as it was in 2018. 

Pribumi Bersatu is nonetheless almost certain to lose all of its seats to Umno. 

The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is between 60 and 70 per cent. 

If Umno is successful, we will be back to how it was pre-GE14 when the country was govern by a moderate multi-racial coalition.

Second Route - Umno and its BN allies combined with PAS in GE15

They are going to win almost all of the Malay votes and wipe out Pribumi Bersatu and its mosquito parties allies.

The Sarawakian parties will join them to form a government which is likely to have a two third majority in parliament.

PH will still retain their urban seats courtesy of non-Malay votes but will not be able to stop the formation of a strong Malay-Muslim-Bumiputera government.

For this one, the ball is with PAS. 

If they choose to join Umno and its gang, they will be part of the new government but if they decide to be with Pribumi Bersatu, they will sink with it. 

They will sink even if Umno and gang lose because of the split Malay votes and PH will not be nice at all with them once it is in power again.

The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is almost 100 per cent and the probability of them getting the two third majority government is about 70 per cent.

If Umno is successful with this one, then we will see even more pro-Malay/Islam/Bumiputera government policies. Umno's non-Malay allies, MCA and MIC will have a hard time trying to take care of their communities' interests.

And if the new government got that two third majority, we could almost certainly expect some constitutional amendments.

Oh, and they would also likely do a re-delineation of the electoral boundaries which ensure they will never lose for a very very long time.

Third Route - Umno and its BN allies going on their own in GE15 and get a new partner after that.

This one will depend on how many seats Umno and its BN allies will get.

If they win a lot, they will choose to approach PAS to get enough seats to form a government and we would get the scenario in Route Two.

If they win not so many, they may likely approach PKR to form a government.

I don't think they will ask DAP to join the club as PKR should have enough of the needed seats.

They are also not likely to approach Amanah as I think that party, along with Pribumi Bersatu will be wiped out in GE15.

Would PKR consider joining Umno and its allies to form a government?

This is what I think Anwar would say, "Saya sudah memikirkan semasak-masaknya dan mengambil keputusan bahawa PKR perlu mengambil jalan yang terbaik dan menjadi sebahagian dari kerajaan demi kepentingan rakyat."

Of course he would add some fancy Malay and Arabic words to it, as usual.

This is actually quite a good deal for Umno as it will be able to lead a government with a weak Opposition. 

PAS and DAP will be without credible allies and they can't work together due to past bad blood which caused the self-destruction of Pakatan Rakyat after GE13.

The chances of Umno's success in this scenario is about 95 per cent. 

The five per cent failure rate is if Anwar get stupid and grew some real conscience and stick with DAP. Well, in that case there are still PAS and individual MPs who may cross over "demi perpaduan ummah".

If Umno is successful with this scenario, we may either get the same stuff as the Second Route or something quite similar with First Route with PKR attached to it. 

Special message to non-Malay voters: 

Your best choice, I think is for Umno to go on the First Route. I suggest for you all to help support MCA and MIC which would defend your interests in a post-GE15 government, just like what they used to do before you all got united under DAP. Don't be angry ya, it's just my humble suggestion. You all can always choose to believe that DAP is your saviour and for that you will have Umno getting what it wants along Route Two or Three. I'm fine with that too. Ciao. 

Umno still needs improvements for solo ride

For once in quite a long while, it was worth observing the Umno general assembly over the weekend.

They finally made it official about really reviving BN for GE15.

No more ties with Pribumi Bersatu and even PAS if the Islamist party chooses to remain with Perikatan instead of Muafakat.

For me, it's the best move by Umno.

I always prefer Umno to fight alongside just its BN allies rather than forming what was supposed to be a domineering Malay Muslim coalition with Pribumi Bersatu and PAS.

It's going to be like what it used to be - BN, a workable moderate multi-racial coalition.

That's the model that worked for the country since Merdeka till GE14 in 2018.

It's better than an ultra-conservative Malay Muslim coalition or a coalition of parties with unrealistic and hypocritical objectives.

As we should learn by now, these alternatives led to chaos and instability. We have tried it, okay.

I know, I know....but Umno and BN were corrupt, got it.

I'm not blaming you all for changing the government in 2018.

Hey, we tried it, and I'm fine with it. The mess now is just the price we paid for the experiment. 

Anyway, that's democracy. We are free to choose and try things.

So, would the BN which will be contesting GE15 on its own be any better than it was in GE14?

Yes and no.

Yes, because it surely remember the lessons from GE14.

No, because at the moment, Umno is still weighted down by the same bunch which caused its GE14 defeat.

Well, that's a price to be paid too later.

Hopefully Umno will sort that one out before GE15.

Okay, now they had said it, I wish to see them actually doing it - cutting off ties with Perikatan led by Pribumi Bersatu.

For now, I think they should not quit the government until parliament has been dissolved.

This is so because we need a functioning government, especially amidst the Covid-19 pandemic.

Umno ministers and those of MCA and MIC should stay where they are and continue to do their job.

It's not for the Perikatan government but instead for the rakyat.

Ministers salaries are not that big anyway.

What I really want to see now is for Umno leaders appointed by the Perikatan government to head GLCs to resign with immediate effect.

They were given those highly paid positions just to support Perikatan.

Not really for the rakyat.

I'm quite sure the GLCs would continue working well without those political appointees.

Most of them are non-executive chairmen, whose actual job is just to chair board meetings in return of huge salaries and other fantastic perks.

Well, of course most of them instead meddle with the management and behave as if the GLCs belong to them.

Just look at the Prasarana mess. That boorish Tajuddin Rahman should resign now since he was one of the loudest in riding the Umno's bandwagon of separating from Perikatan .

Anyway, he's one of the guys, who make Umno still looks bad to a lot of people.

And then there's Khaled Nordin, who was equally loud in riding the Umno going solo wave.

I'm waiting for him to quit being the Boustead chairman since the first day he started to whack Perikatan in order to be seen as an Umno champion.

And he's an Umno vice president, for goodness sake.

Sigh....

There are quite a number of others like Tajuddin and Khaled in Umno leadership now.

As far as I'm concerned, they are only good at talking and not much else.

Well, if they stay put in their cushy posts, then I think Umno still have quite a bit more to go at removing the parasites in their midst as was vowed by them during the weekend.

Come on Umno, jangan cakap tak serupa bikin.

DAP's token Malays

 I have been following closely the ongoing DAP's state elections.

That's because the party, which is now the single biggest block in parliament with 44 seats was said to be mulling the possibility of forming an alliance or cooperation with arch enemy Umno in the next general election.

I wanted to know if such thing is possible.

Is DAP really changing for such a possibility?

Or is it, like Umno is being stubborn when it comes to change.

Hard to tell so far.

Guan Eng in his speech at the Penang DAP convention said there will be no such cooperation...but he added that the stand is until the central executive committee of the party decides otherwise.

That means, the possibility is still there.

Well, the Penang DAP election yesterday turned out as expected.

Guan Eng's gang, led by Chief Minister Chow won comfortably.

Guan Eng's sister also retained her post in the state party committee.

So, the family cartel continues.

I was also a bit disheartened because the only Malay, who was elected yesterday was Zairil Khir Johari.

I'm sorry to say that electing Zairil was actually a poor choice if the DAP delegates thought that would add some Malay flavour to their line up of leadership. 

Zairil's past conducts were not really very good examples for a Malay person. He doesn't even look like one.

Well, I don't want to go too much into that personal side of Zairil as you all can just google to find out what he was all about.

 

I'm not saying here that DAP is anti-Malay or anything like that but the outcome of yesterday's polls doesn't look very good with the multi-racial image that the party is trying to project.

It now looks more like a party for non-Malays more than anything else.

I know, I know, they said DAP is all about merit but surely there must be a good DAP Malay person who is really better than Zairil to be elected, right?

They can't all be bad, right?

Or are they all the same as Zairil?

Sigh.

Anyway, after the election, they appointed Syerleena Abdul Rashid, the Seri Delima assemblyman to sit in the Penang DAP committee.

She didn't even contest the election, probably knowing that she wouldn't make the cut anyway. At least that's my thought.

They made her the assistant publicity secretary.

I think that's a convenient post for a Malay in DAP as she probably could do more publicity to convince for more of her fellow Malays to join or support the party.

No real decision making power for her though.

By the way, Syerleena's Seri Delima constituents are made of 65.54 per cent Chinese, 22.31 per cent Malays, 11.39 per cent Indians, and less than one per cent of other races. 

Yup, it would be better if she had won in a real Malay majority or at least a marginal constituency.

Whatever it is, I think DAP still needs to do more in order to properly portray itself as a party for all, especially among the Malays.

Being careful of Covid-19 and the RM10k compound

 I went out just now because the boy I'm staying with at the moment asked for his favourite roti canai.

It was only the fourth or fifth time that I stepped out of the house since the start of my Covid-19 hideaway here in Kuantan about two months ago.

The other times I went out were either because the boy made a similar request or I need to get my supply of nicotine.

I didn't even go shopping because that was done by my friend, who is the boy's mother, whose place I'm staying in for now.

I will only be going back to KL when they lift the state border restriction.

Anyway, at the mamak just now, I scanned my registration at the entrance as usual and in addition to that I wrote the particulars of the boy on the book for those without the mySejahtera app.

I didn't do that previously because the boy is with autism. I assumed that it's okay as they could just contact trace the boy to me if anything happens. 

But since the new laws were put in place, I decided not to take any risk.

They may slapped the RM10,000 compound on the boy if I don't register him before entering the premises.

By the way, the boy is 18.

I don't think the boy's mother would appreciate it too much if she has to pay such a sum. She's not rich, okay.

I can't afford it either, actually. That RM10,000 could sustain me for at least five months.

Really. My normal living expenses were less than RM2,000 per month. That covers for my food, fuel, toll fees, parking etc.

If they slapped me with the RM10,000 compound, I think I would just go to jail rather than paying it.

I don't think it's nice to stay in jail but I believe I could manage it.

I'm not much of an outdoor person anyway.

Still, I'm being extra careful now.

I simply need to stay out of trouble during this dangerous time. It's dangerous because of not only Covid-19 but also the compounds.

And the best way to avoid the danger is to stay in the house as much as I could.

Since I can afford to do that for now, that's what I'm doing.

Anyway, why bother to go out when I could get almost anything delivered to where I am now.

I'm not too much into dining out, hanging out with other people, having fun at parties and gatherings etc ....unless I'm in the company of people that I really like.....and I don't really like too many people, actually.

As a friend once told me, I'm actually quite an anti-social person.

So, I'm okay as I am now.

Since, I'm now writing about being careful due to Covid-19, I think these people at their event yesterday are really not complying with the Covid-19 SOPs,

No social distancing at all.

The authorities should have gone to the event yesterday and slapped everyone with the RM10,000 compound.

Especially the loud ones there. So irritating.

They used to accuse BN of using phantom voters at elections but now they are accusing their own leaders of doing it. 

Hahahaha...stupid people.

They turned into frogs because of their sins

 This morning

PKR MP Xavier defects to support Perikatan

Then in the afternoon

PKR accuses Perikatan of using agencies to coax defectors

excerpts;

Saifuddin said Xavier had recently met with the PKR leadership to inform them that MACC has detained his political secretary, personal assistant and several acquaintances.

“Xavier was then contacted by a senior minister, who told him that he has to support PN or face serious consequences,” read his statement.

Sigh.

If you got no dirt, why be scared of being threatened.

If they really go after you, then you just defend yourself in the court of law la....like Najib, Zahid etc etc.

See, even Guan Eng defends himself in court.

This just shows that all those talks by PKR leaders and the gang about fighting Umno's corruption are mostly political bullshit more than anything else.

They are themselves doing it when they were in power.

And that Xavier was among the loudest when it came to whacking Umno.

Now, after his people got arrested and millions seized the other day, he jumped.

Yup, otherwise what material do Perikatan have to threaten him and the others as alleged by Saifuddin.

They are now jumping all over the place when the heat is on, giving all sort of crap excuses like wanting to help the government fight Covid-19 etc.

Saifuddin also really shouldn't point his finger at the police, MACC and IRB people as those guys were just doing their jobs.

If they are given the evidence of corruption, of course they have to investigate the case.

What else could they do.

It doesn't matter to them whether the evidence being produced is part of a political agenda.

If it's legit, they have to take action.

It's the same way they handled the prosecution of Najib, Zahid and the other Umno leaders after Pakatan Harapan came to power after GE14.

It doesn't matter to them whether the charges were part of Pakatan's plan at that time to totally destroy Umno.

Well, now these people like Saifuddin are crying foul and accusing Perikatan Nasional of using the same tactic to force their MPs to jump ship.

I'm not saying it's alright for Muhyiddin's gang to do it, but for PKR and Pakatan people to bitch about it seems quite hypocritical.

Eh, you all did the same to Umno la, when you all were in power.

Well, there you have it. 

All of you who sacrificed your time and energy at street demonstrations back then should learn from this episode of comedy.

Don't be too obsessed with your side being right all the time and that your supposed leaders are saints.

Next time, don't be so easily conned, okay.

Jesus said Allah, not Deus

I don't think Muslims should be too upset with the recent High Court's decision allowing Christians to use the word "Allah" in reference to God.

In fact, all Christians, in my humble opinion, should from now on use the word "Allah" and worship Allah and nothing else but Allah.

Now that they are free to use it, all the churches should also use the word "Allah" to describe God.

It's the right thing to do, actually.

It's because, Jesus, as mentioned in the Bible, did just that.

Yes, Jesus or Isa as we Muslims call him, referred to God as Allah and not Deus or Jehovah or whatever.

Since Christians said they are followers of Jesus, it's only right that they do the same.

I'm not a religious expert, so let this mat saleh theology scholar explains this to you (you have to view this video on the web version of this blog, mobile can't),

And since we are at it, I also think that Christians should be encouraged to be more Jesus-like.

As Jesus (who is actually a Jew) was, Christians should worship Allah the way he did, be circumcised (males only), don't eat pork, etc etc.

Oh, and Jesus also didn't pray to himself.

He prayed to Allah.

Really, not a single straight forward verse in the Bible that quoted Jesus as claiming divinity.

There are a lot though in the good book which said he only prayed to Allah.

Again, let the mat saleh theology scholar explains it,

So, Muslims (and everyone else) shouldn't get upset over this whole thing.

Really.

Cheers.

About a Kluang guy's solar project

This is what I know (of course only what I actually can tell here) about this story,

Ceremony to kick-off mega Pengerang solar park cancelled

excerpts;

Sultan Ibrahim said he did not see why Putrajaya would not be willing to give Johor a chance to be an eco-friendly producer of electricity.

Well, this project is actually an initiative of a guy from my hometown Kluang.

He migrated a long time ago and became rich, but now, out of his love for Johor, has decided to give something back to it.

I have checked his story and it's quite genuine.

The Sultan actually has no real shares in the project except for the land to be used for it being leased by the Ruler to the Kluang guy. 

I was told that Sultan Ibrahim has been supportive of the initiative from the start, thus the name of the project.

The problem actually started when the proposal for the project was brought to Putrajaya for approval.

There, the Kluang guy was offered to do the project somewhere in Perak instead of Johor.

The Kluang guy refused the offer, saying that he initiated the project specifically for his home state and furthermore, the area chosen for it was most suitable for it.

He, nonetheless, offered to build a mosque or some other social welfare projects in the area in Perak.

That's when the project stalled. No federal approval for it.

I was reliably informed that PM Muhyiddin, who is a Johorean himself, will call for a meeting on the matter as soon as he gets back from Saudi Arabia.

Well, in case he's reading this, Muhyiddin should ask his people about the matter of RM4 million related to the approval of the project.

That should get some people's armpits sweating.

Sigh. These people really need to stop such nonsense.

I hope this project will proceed.

It's after all good for the environment. Particularly Johor's environment.

Oh, even though I like Pahang more these days, I still love my home state Johor.

Can they just shut up and disappear?

 Saw this one just now and I was like "Yuck, this one still around and making noises?"

Cooperate for Malay politics' sake, Umno, Bersatu urged 

excerpts;

The Jelebu Bersatu chief said the two parties should not cut ties completely, and expressed hope that both will continue to work together.

This Rais Yatim is one of the most icky politicians as far as I'm concerned.

Been around for so long that I wonder why people are so easily conned by him.

Jumped here, jumped there, jumped everywhere.

He even thrived and became minister again during Najib's time until he fucked up big time and was sidelined. 

Then he turned against Najib.

Typical.

Well, that's Najib's fault for surrounding himself with people like Rais. He's a poor judge of character.

Anyway, what is this Rais talking about saving "Malay politics"?

So dumb.

No politics needs saving at this time. In fact, less politics would be better.

It's the rakyat that need saving. They need to be saved from unemployment, corrupt people in power etc etc.

It really irritates me seeing him invoking the word "Malay" like that.

This guy is actually desperate as he knows that without Umno supporting Perikatan, Pribumi Bersatu which is his ship now will sink.

He can't jump back to Umno because he had done all the jumping that he could and Umno people must surely still remember how cocky he and the other turncoats were right after GE14.

Why can't people like Rais just shut up and disappear?

Then there's this one,

Put aside leaders with criminal charges to move forward, Musa urges Umno

Duhhh...this Musa Hitam is still around too?

And now suddenly making an appearance  giving Umno an advice which is soo obvious.

Yeah, that's a good advise but coming from him made me cringed.

Where was Musa back then when everyone said Umno is dead post GE14?

He had a cushy lucrative job (if you can call it a job) at the Sime Darby Foundation at that time and I was told that he refused to go anywhere near Umno, let alone lending a helping hand to save it.

Now he's dishing it advice and talk like this,

excerpts;

In the interview, Musa also explained that severe infighting within Umno has caused the party to be splintered into three factions.

One faction he described as Umno puritans who believe in the spirit of the party, the second faction are those who side with the party leaders such as its current president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamid, and the third consists of capable leaders that were not given the opportunities to step forward.

Yeah, right.

As if he now suddenly knows Umno inside out again.

Eh, does he ever goes down on the ground and talk with the real Umno grassroots (I'm not talking about the ketua2 bahagian, okay)?

Does he knows that the Umno grassroots is still very strong, even when everyone said it's dead after GE14 and people like him abandoned the party and people like Rais betrayed it?

Whatever lah.

You see, that's why I'm feeling quite fed up these days.

I keep bumping into stories of useless people making useless statements quite a lot of late.

PN vs PH vs BN (or is it MN?)

It's confirmed then that Umno (and most likely its BN allies too) wanted to go on their own for GE15.

I don't mind that at all.

PN vs BN vs PH. That should be quite interesting.

Pribumi Bersatu said they were not scared but I think they do.

The flying car minister said there are still the Umno election, hinting that if there's a change of that party's leadership, then Umno will stick with supporting PN.

Sure.

I believe they are betting on their trojan horses in Umno to take over the party leadership and change its course.

They can try.  Pour lots of money and it may work. Fair enough.

Who? Hishammuddin and KJ? 

But those two are too liberal for Pribumi Bersatu's ultra-Malay designs or Pas ultra-Islamic aspirations.

Other than those, who else?

Never mind. Let's just wait and see.

It's Pribumi Bersatu's best hope for survival, I guess.

Seriously, if that one doesn't work, I don't think PN stand any chance to survive GE15.

PN now solely rely on Pas' machinery to fight on the ground.

Really. Pribumi Bersatu and the other insignificant parties in the coalition have almost zero grassroots structure.

What? Gerakan? Gerakan is now just a joke, okay.

In fact it has been a joke for quite a while.

They may as well recruit Keyvias and his....what is the name of his party now?

Come to think of it, Pas, which is the only one in PN with real machinery should just turn the whole gig into its own coalition. 

It would be very much like its funny little coalition for GE14 which even its name nobody remembers.

Okay, in the event of a real three-cornered fight like in GE14, which I think is really going to happen, who do you think will win?

PH is definitely happy, thinking the Malay votes are going to split again.

But bear in mind that the dynamics have changed.

There's no more that sympathy for Dr Mahathir factor anymore.

Pas may hold their ground in their strongholds but they are not going to get the votes from disgruntled Umno people which was a huge factor in the sinking of BN in GE14.

Pribumi Bersatu and the other nonsense parties in PN will be wiped out. I'm quite sure of that.

After all, what could they offer anyway.

Okay, the non-Malays are still mostly going to side with PH but the enthusiasm will not be as great as in the last two GEs.

These are bad time, okay. They know now that instability is really bad for business, especially now with Covid-19 wrecking havoc up and down the country.

During PH's 22 months rule, except for the satisfaction of having Guan Eng as finance minister, I don't think they got much else.

Oh, okay, they got to see Najib being humiliated and dragged to court. But compared to now, I think their businesses did better during Najib's time.

Never mind, I know, they'll give it another try. Sure. It's the pride thing.

Again, let's wait and see.

It's always a gamble anyway. Except this time, the price could be quite high if they lose.

Back to Pas. 

If they are a bit smarter than I think they are, they could see all these and decide to side with Umno and BN rather than the almost sure losers of Pribumi Bersatu and its other nonsense PN allies.

Remember, they still have that MN (Muafakat Nasional) thing with Umno and its BN gang going.

If this happens, then PH would likely be as screwed as PN.

It would be a real Malay tsunami.

I'm quite sure of this.

It's only fair. They talked about Hindraf tsunami in GE12, Chinese tsunami in GE13 and rakyat tsunami in GE14. Why not a real Malay tsunami this time, right?

Racist? Eh, BN fielded MCA in the Malay-majority Tanjong Piai by-election and they destroyed PH, which fielded a Malay candidate.You all forgot, is it?

Well, I wouldn't worry too much if I were you. 

Malays are nice people and their tsunami should be very brief. And they are not very vengeful. 

Also, they'll very soon quarrel among themselves again.

Then it's back to business as usual.

Not so bad, okay. 

Prosecuting Sajat

 So, it has came to this,

Transgender Nur Sajat – now in hiding - wants to renounce Islam

Great work they did, these supposed to be promoters and defenders of Islam.

I previously wrote about this 

• Maybe we deserve a totalitarian regime...led by Sajat

excerpts;

Even if that Sajat is an irritating and troublesome pondan, I don't think they should have bullied her like that.

Now that Sajat wants to renounce Islam, they said she was being emotional.

Sigh.

There was even this one ustaz pencetus ummah who also commented that it's Sajat's own fault that she ends up wanting to quit being a Muslim and that she was a disgrace to Islam.

Yea right, and how about his pencetus ummah type who were charged with rape, divorced their pregnant wives to marry other women and such?

Charge them with disgracing Islam too la.

I don't normally comment on religious matters as I'm not a religious person, but the hypocrisy surrounding this Sajat's case was a bit too much.

To recap, Sajat was charged with insulting Islam for organising a religious event at her business premises and wearing a baju kurung and tudung at the function.

How could that even compare with posing as a religious man at national level and using the status to lure women to be raped or using Islam to justify divorcing a pregnant wife to marry another woman.

And how about those who use Islam for personal gains through politics and business?

Aren't they more damaging to Islam than Sajat and her antics?

Well, damage done already.

I'm just writing this to let off steam.

Nothing could actually be done, okay.

I have seen what they did when they catch transgender offenders.

I was at a magistrate's court once a few years ago and was told that a bunch of transgenders were about to be charged for prostitution.

 I look at the people who were about to be charged and none of them looked like a transgender prostitute.

Turned out they had shaved the transgenders' heads and that day they looked very much like army recruits or prison inmates.

There were seven of them and they each got a few weeks in jail. 

I think they are going to catch Sajat in the end and throw the book at her. After all, hundreds of Jais people, assisted by the police are hunting her now.

Her alleged offence carries a maximum RM5,000 fine and three years jail.

But I don't think those potential punishments are the ones that made her wanted to renounce Islam.

It's the thought of being further humiliated that's most scary to her.

Ya, they do love to humiliate people like Sajat.

Imagine a botak Sajat in a prison garb and handcuffed.

A disgrace to Islam, they said.

Well, Sajat should have just migrated to another country to save herself from all this trouble.

Maybe after this.

And I hope she will not renounce Islam when she's over there.

Allah knows her better than those people.