GE14 southern trip - east coast, central routes

I'm back in JB.

Just arrived.

I had travelled to be in Pekan for nomination day on Saturday.

What I saw and hear that day made me felt that

• GE14 is turning into an anti-climax

Actually,  what I saw on my trip the previous day along the "coastal road" of JB-Kota Tinggi-Mersing-Endau-Rompin-Pekan-Kuantan was the same as on the nomination day.

The party flags hoisted along the route were mostly that of BN, some of Pas and very few of PKR/Pakatan.

It more or less confirmed my belief that Pakatan's presence in the East Coast was very minimal.

Today, I left my friend's house in Kuantan for JB about 9am.

Her house is within the Indra Mahkota parliamentary constituency.

Both Indra Mahkota and Kuantan have been with PKR for the last two terms.

Despite now is the campaigning period, I noticed that the PKR flags were very few to be seen there so far.

The place was mostly covered by the dark blue of BN and some green of Pas.

It's the same along the route to Muadzam Shah.

The PKR/Pakatan flags were actually only seen in number as I was approaching the Segamat town.

Segamat is one of the risky areas for BN in Johor.

Though the BN flags were still in greater number than that of Pakatan's, it's more even there than along my route in Pahang.

I stopped several times from then onwards as I wanted to check how things were at these presumably better contested areas.

One of my stops was in Labis, which I'm quite familiar with.

I spent almost three weeks there during the Tenang by-election in 2012.

I wrote a bit about my experience there in these posts,

• A lesson from Tenang

• Umno's campaign styles and memories of Tenang

The place looks the same as it was back then.

Took this picture of Labis town today

As it was in Segamat, there was a good amount of Pakatan flags and posters around to match those of BN's.

I always remember that by-election as being the best for me because I was there with my dear friends and we did have lots of fun and good experience there.

The BN candidate at that time, Mohd Azahar Ibrahim, also known as Tok Ai is still the assemblyman of Tenang and he would be defending it again this time.

Not bad at all because, the guy, whom everyone thought was blur blur when he was nominated as candidate during the by-election is now the Labis Umno division chief.

Funny when I think back, because it took quite a bit to coax him to contest that by-election. He was actually scared that he may not be capable enough to serve the constituents.

He turned out quite ok, it seems.

The other state seat within the Labis parliamentary constituency is Bekok and the incumbent is DAP's Lim Eng Guan, but this time he was replaced there as his party candidate by Dr S.Ramakrishnan.

The Labis parliamentary seat is currently held by MCA's Chua Tee Yong who in 2013 won it by a razor thin margin of just 353 votes.

Despite that, it appeared that DAP had quite a problem fielding a candidate there.

They tried to get Dr Boo Cheng Hau of Skudai but the guy rather not be fielded at all than to go there. Then they asked cute girl Teo Nie Ching of Kulai but someone told me that she cried like in a Korean drama pleading not to be sent there. Next they sent Gobind of Puchong but after a look around the mostly oil palm estates of Labis, the guy decided he can't stand the place.

In the end DAP had to settle on the relatively unknown Pan Hok Liong to contest against Tee Yong.

I think because of that Labis would be interesting to watch.

I was told that Tee Yong had worked hard on the ground there  the past five years. Maybe he has actually managed to swing around especially the Chinese voters there.

Well, let's wait and see.

After Labis, I drove down to Yong Peng, Ayer Hitam, Simpang Renggam, Kulai and all the way to JB.

I didn't get on the North-South Highway and instead drove along the old trunk road to see things better along the way.

In terms of flags and banners, it's more or less the same - more BN's than Pakatan's but the balance was not as bad as along the east coast road and that in Pahang.

But still it's a far cry from those days during the last two general elections.

Maybe now people are focusing more on presence in cyberspace, especially in social media.

Well, don't know lah. I still think the situation on the ground is the best indicator of what's to come.

 Maybe I'm wrong.

For now, let's just wait for the outcome on May 9.

I need to rest now. Still tired from the driving.

GE14 is turning into an anti-climax

I went to Pekan yesterday for the nomination day.

Was driving from my friend's house near Bukit Istana, Kuantan along the Bypass highway, a bit of Gambang-Kuantan highway and then the Kuantan-Pekan highway.

There were party flags put up all along the highways.

They were mostly BN's, quite a number of Pas', but very few that of PKR which represent Pakatan.

It made me wondered what's wrong with the Pakatan machinery.

Was it the same elsewhere?

It's nomination day after all.

They should had put up more of their flags by then.

When I arrived in Pekan, just before 9am, I got another surprise.

I walked to the field near the hall where the nomination process took place and discovered that among the party supporters who accompanied their candidates, only a few were from Pakatan.

Less than 50 of them, I think.

These are all the Pakatan supporters that turned up at the Pekan nomination centre yesterday.

The Pas supporters there probably outnumbered them 10 to one, while those from BN about 100 to one.

It was nothing like when I was there on nomination day of the general election in 2008.

At that time the opposition supporters were almost equal in number of the BN supporters and they were boisterous.

Those were the Pakatan Rakyat days.

Yesterday, if I'm a Pakatan Harapan supporter, I would have cried seeing the very few supporters accompanying Zahid Mat Arif to the nomination centre.

I know la that he is not going  to win against Najib but the least that could be done was to give him adequate moral support to continue campaigning over the next 10 days.

As I sat under a tree near the field, I received WhatsApp messages from friends at other parts of the country.

They also told of not very encouraging stories about Pakatan.

Several of Pakatan candidates were disqualified for not adhering to the election laws..

They include the veteran Tian Chua of PKR.

How can they fumbled on such an important day like that?

I can sense the frustration among my friends who were supporting Pakatan.

They simply could not believe that their candidates, who were supposed to be part of the Pakatan team to wipe out BN could fail so miserably.

Some started to accuse the Election Commission of purposely disqualifying the Pakatan candidates but their accusations seemed so far fetched to me.

What they forgot was that there were cases of BN candidates similarly being disqualified in past elections too.

It's a matter of getting everything in order and adhering to the laws and regulations.

If the candidates can't even get those right, then they don't deserve to be a wakil rakyat in the first place.

It's as simple as that.

Well, so far not so good for Pakatan.

I'm not saying that they would be wiped out, but it's getting harder for me to see them defeating BN in this general election.

Okay, there's still about 10 days for them to push their campaign.

I still think they will continue to rule Penang and Selangor.

They may also likely capture Kedah and possibly spring an upset in Perak and Johor.

But those are about it.

I can't see them capturing Putrajaya anymore.

So much for all the noises over the past years.

Okay, I'm driving back to JB tomorrow morning.

I think I'll stay there for a while to see how things turn up there.

After all, the other day I wrote this as it appeared more and more likely that Pakatan is not going to win this general election,

The next best thing for Pakatan - capturing Johor

Art of war - enemy too strong, joke around

I'm resting today.

Tomorrow, I'll be in Pekan for nomination day.

Just wanted to check out how things are with Najib's fortress.

I was there on nomination day of the 2008 general election.

Najib almost had a disaster in 1999 when his majority was reduced to just 241 votes.

That's Reformasi time.

Najib was back then fighting for Dr Mahathir against the forces of Anwar Ibrahim.

Now he is fighting against both Dr Mahathir and Anwar.

Quite weird, come to think of it.

Anyway, things turned around for Najib in 2004 when he won Pekan by 22,922 majority votes), and it continues to improve in 2008 (26,464 majority votes), and in 2013 (35,614 majority votes).

So, I think it's almost impossible for him to lose in Pekan.

This time Pakatan has sent some sort of a joker to fight against Najib.

Okay, Zahid Mat Arif is the grandson of former deputy prime minister Ghafar Baba, but other than that, the only thing exceptional about him is his ability to tell quite hilarious political jokes in his speeches.

Guess they know they can't win and decided just to make things fun for the people of Pekan.

Actually, it's quite smart of them to do that.

I would have done the same.

Sometimes when an enemy was too strong, I just made fun of the whole fight.

Like pointing out that my enemy was smelly or something, which was true by the way.

I think Pakatan is doing something like that as far as Pekan is concerned.

Who knows, maybe they can reduce Najib's majority by just joking around.

Or maybe Zahid's jokes become so good that all Pekan folks actually turn around  and let him win.

Eh, anything could happen, okay.

Well, I'm going out to get myself some breakfast now.

Going to just lepak around the whole day.

Away from the GE14 nonsense for a while.

Cheers.

Meroyan tak jadi calon

I wrote this post five years ago on June 11, 2013, barely a month after the last general election,

• Meroyan kalah pilihanraya

excerpts;

Puad, the former deputy education minister apparently still can't accept  that he lost his BP parliament seat and now out of the Umno's mainstream. 

Of course he needs to blame someone else for it. 

Well, looks like he is still sore that the Johor Umno liaison committee headed by Datuk Ghani had advised the Umno HQ to drop him as a candidate following feedback about Puad in Batu Pahat  being very bad. 

He had however managed to bypass that recommendation by throwing tantrum in KL a day before the BN list of candidates was announced.

Puad contested and lost the Batu Pahat parliament seat, which is the only Malay-majority parliamentary constituency that BN lost in Johor. 

The other four which BN lost were Chinese majority Bakri, Kluang, Kulai and Gelang Patah. 

Anyway, I guess Puad just can't shut up and wait for the due process of Johor Umno's power transition by attacking his former mentor (He got his first real break into politics after Datuk Ghani appointed him as his political secretary). 

Or maybe it's  just that he  wanted to cosy up to the new Johor Menteri Besar in the hope that he could remain relevant after the electoral defeat.

Surprisingly, despite losing the Batu Pahat seat and then throwing such a silly tantrum like that, Datuk Puad Zarkashi was elected as an Umno supreme council member at the party election later that year. At that time I was wondering what's wrong with the Umno people who voted for him.

He was later on appointed as the director-general of the Special Affairs Department (Jasa), which actually shocked me at that time. Can't they see that something is wrong with the guy?

Not enough with those, he was even made a member of Media Prima board of directors where he caused havoc among some spineless editors at the news organisation. Puad's statements, many of which were idiotic in nature were then categorised as "must cover, must use" for publication.

I was told that just recently a journalist working for one of the Media Prima newspapers got in trouble with a big time editor for writing a story which hinted the possibility of Puad not being selected as a GE14 candidate. The small time editors who instructed the story to be written were however spared.

As it turned out, Puad was indeed not selected to be a candidate when the Johor BN's list was announced on Monday.

True to his self, Puad reacted angrily despite BN chairman DS Najib Razak and his deputy DS Ahmad Zahid Hamidi having called him to explain why he was not selected as a candidate.

Zahid, in fact had to issued a long statement on the matter as Puad continued with his tantrum as reported here,

Puad Zarkashi must accept reality

excerpts;

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the Batu Pahat Umno division head must accept the reality that the constituency was in a critical state with an erosion of support for BN.

He said by placing another candidate to contest in the parliamentary constituency, BN hoped it could wrest it back from PKR.

“…but if the district voting centre is temporarily closed due to protests and he wants to contest on any ticket, that is up to him,” he said in a press conference held after his working visit to Sarawak at the VIP room in the Kuching International Airport here yesterday.

“…but (if that happens) he is not showing a strong party spirit even though he is a member of the UMNO Supreme Council and director-general of Jasa. This is a democratic country, it is up to him,” he said.

And today, when Zahid was in Batu Pahat for the closing of Minggu Amanah Saham programme, Puad refused to meet him.

Instead he chose to throw another fit, as reported here,

Puad Zarkashi resigns from Jasa

He posted his decision to quit Jasa on Facebook.

I'm reproducing what he posted in full ;

25.4.2108. HARI TERAKHIR DI JASA

Alhamdulillah hari ini hari terakhir saya di JASA. Saya tidak mengubah keputusan untuk meletak jawatan. Memang, ramai juga yang akan mengutuk saya. Saya tetap tabah. Berakhirlah riwayat saya di JASA. Tempat panas sehinggakan DAP membawa usul ke Parlimen di sidang Parlimen terakhir awal tahun ini supaya JASA dibubarkan. Sebelum ini dalam bajet PH mereka mencadangkan supaya JASA ditutup sahaja.

Kalau mahu disebut satu persatu memang banyak yang telah dilakukan sehingga JASA semakin dikenali termasuk di kawasan pedalaman Sabah dan Sarawak dan juga di kalangan pelajar Malaysia di luar negara.

Apakah saya marah dan merajuk? Itulah tuduhan oleh mereka yang tidak mengikuti sejarah saya. PRU tahun 1999 nama saya dipotong di saat akhir kerana saya dituduh penyokong Anwar kerana pernah menjadi guru di sekolah beliau Yayasan Anda Akademi. Saya tidak lari. PRU 2004 nama saya langsung tidak tersenarai walaupun ketika itu saya adalah Timbalan Ketua dan setpol YAB MB Johor (TS Ghani Othman). Saya juga meletakkan jawatan sebagai setpol serta merta. Tetapi saya juga tidak lari.

PRU ke 2013 saya kalah kerana tsunami Cina. Ramai tokoh lain juga kalah tetapi mereka tetap dapat bertanding kali ini. Saya juga tidak lari. Di PRU 2018 ini, saya digugurkan dalam tempoh 24 jam setelah menerima panggilan dan sebelumnya ditemui oleh TS Fatmi Salleh yang mengesahkan pencalonan saya. Pengguguran saya berlaku tanpa perundingan walaupun saya adalah ahli MT, KP JASA dan Ketua Bahagian.

Sebab itu saya berani mempersoalkan sistem memilih calon kali ini adalah ROSAK. Sebab itu apabila TPM mendakwa saya digugurkan kerana berlaku kerosakan sehingga sokongan terhadap BN merosot di Parlimen Batu Pahat maka ia meyakinkan saya sistem memilih calon UMNO kali ini adalah rosak dan corrupted.

Bagaimana dikatakan berlaku kerosakan sedangkan UMNO Batu Pahat berjaya menambah dan memindah pengundi hampir 7000 orang sehingga menyebabkan Parlimen Batu Pahat menjadi top five pertambahan tertinggi pengundi Melayu di Johor.

Apakah saya akan dikenakan tindakan disiplin kerana menjawab komen TPM secara terbuka? Kalau begitu kenapa Ahmad Said yang membawa usul supaya DS Razif dipecat sebagai MB tidak dikenakan tindakan dan dicalonkan semula.

Memang sistem kita rosak sehingga calon tidak bermoral dipilih. Calon yang tidak membantu parti juga terpilih.

Walaupun mempertahankan Kerajaan melalui JASA seperti tidak berbaloi tetapi meletakan jawatan adalah langkah terbaik. Terima kasih kepada seluruh staf JASA kerana bekerja sama dengan saya siang dan malam melaksanakan tugas dan tanggungjawab dengan dedikasi. Maafkan saya kerana memimpin JASA dengan cara yang keras dan tegas. Allah juga yang akan membalas pengorbanan anda semua.


Totally childish, if you asked me.

This Puad is a real embarrassment, especially for Umno.

Dropping him as a candidate was the best decision by BN so far for GE14.

Jason better than Kit Siang, Khaled better than Tok Moy

It's past 3am.

Just got back from Kampung Tanjong Kupang in Gelang Patah.

Went there after Maghrib prayers with a friend to meet a local veteran Umno grassroots leader.

The guy is among the better ones that I know. A real Umno idealist who really does things for agama, bangsa and negara, so to speak.

We talked over a wide range of political issues in Johor, particularly those directly affecting his village and the surrounding area.

He said things are not so bad for Johor BN as perceived by outsiders like me.

Among others, he believed that even DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang is at risk facing Jason Teoh of MCA in Gelang Patah parliamentary constituency which is now called Iskandar Puteri.

He said Jason's pre-campaign rounds were well received not only in the Malay villages, but also in areas with large Chinese constituents such as Skudai.

"Jason is quite good at  what he does. I think he will get the bulk of Malay votes and I have a feeling that he will also get quite a lot of Chinese votes too. I believe it will be a 50-50 fight here," he said.

I wrote these posts about Jason just weeks before the last general election in 2013,

• The man who can win in Gelang Patah

• Jason is a good man

The Umno grassroots leader nonetheless admitted that it's going to be a tough fight in most part of Johor.

He was hoping for no sudden changes in Johor BN plans so that its candidates could concentrate on winning.

He totally disagreed with any plan to replace DS Mohamed Khaled Nordin with Datuk OthmanYusoff as MB.

Please read this for context;
Tok Moy likely to be the new Johor MB

"I have my complaints against Khaled but the thought of Tok Moy becoming MB was not very comforting," he said, adding that Othman is too close with the Johor palace, which would make it difficult for him to function as MB.

The guy has indeed quite a lot of grouses against the current state administration but he was of the opinion that Khaled should be given at least another term to prove his worth.

Okay, fine....that's maybe quite fair, I guess.

Still, that's up for PM DS Najib Razak to decide as BN chairman....not me or anyone else.

Sleepless in JB

I was about to sleep and a bit blur when a friend sent me a picture via WhatsApp,

Guess the guy was a bit excited to see Sultan of Johor and BN candidate for Kukup Datuk Md Othman Yusoff who was said may replace DS Mohamed Khaled Nordin as the menteri besar.

• Tok Moy likely to be the new Johor MB

I told my friend that it's not a done deal yet.

After all,

Khaled is to contest Pasir Gudang parliamentary, Permas state seats

Yes, I don't think Khaled is yet to let go of his MB post.

For one thing, I knew that the prospect of going back to Putrajaya doesn't appeal to him.

I learnt from another friend that Khaled actually wishes to end his career as a menteri besar.

But of course, not just after one term.

Members of his team were also very unhappy with all the talks that Othman will replace their boss.

Khaled has a huge team, actually.

If he goes back to Putrajaya and becomes a federal minister again, he may not likely be able to find enough places to accommodate all of them.

Some may simply lose their job or not find things being so rosy anymore.

This is especially so for those of them who drive all those expensive cars seen parked at Kota Iskandar.

Well, I actually do sympathise.

I don't really wish to see them suffer this sort of things, which I witnessed five years ago,

The eradication of Datuk Ghani 

Please click on that link and read what I wrote back then.

Anyway, Khaled people shouldn't lose too much sleep about Tok Moy for now as they have a more pressing matter at hand, which is GE14.

If they don't focus on that, they may still be out of job with or without Tok Moy, okay.

I also need to get my sleep proper now. Really hate being sleepless in this hotel room.

Johor BN candidates list

I'm in Johor now but moving around.

So, can't write at the moment.

I'm putting this Johor BN list of candidates announced this morning for now and will comment later.

Just a note : The most significant name I think is the very last one on the list.

P140 – Segamat - Datuk Seri Dr S Subramaniam (MIC)

 N01 – Buluh  Kasap - Datuk Zahari Sarip  (UMNO)

 N02 – Jementah - Chiam Yok Meng (MCA)

 P141- Sekijang - Datuk Ayub Rahmat (UMNO)

 N03 – Pemanis - Khoo Shiaw Lee (Gerakan)

 N04 – Kemelah - Anuar Abd Manap (UMNO)

 P142 - Labis - Datuk Chua Tee Yong (MCA)

 N05 -Tenang - Mohd Azahar Ibrahim (UMNO)

 N06 – Bekok - Tan Chong (MCA)

 P143 - Pagoh - Ismail Mohamed (UMNO)

 N07 – Bukit Kepong - Mohd Noor Taib (UMNO)

 N08 – Bukit Pasir - Datuk Noriah Mahat (UMNO)

 P144 – Ledang - Datuk Dr Hamim Samuri (UMNO)

 N09 – Gambir - Datuk M. Asojan (MIC)

 N10 – Tangkak - Goh Tee Tee (MCA)

 N11 - Serom -  Datuk Abdull Rahim Talib (UMNO)

 P145 – Bakri - Koh Chon Chai (MCA)

 N12 – Bentayan - Lee Kim Heng (MCA) 

 N13 - Simpang Jeram - Mohd Radzi Md Amin (UMNO)

 N14 - Bukit Naning - Datuk Hassan Johari (UMNO)

 P146 – Muar - Datuk Seri Razali Ibrahim (UMNO)

 N15 - Maharani - Datuk Ashari Sharif (UMNO)

 N16 – Sungai Balang - Zaiton Ismail (UMNO)

 P147 – Parit Sulong  - Datuk Dr Noraini Ahmad (UMNO)

​​​​​​​N17 – Semerah - Mohd Ismail Roslan (UMNO)

 N18 - Sri Medan -  Datuk Zulkurnain Kamisan (UMNO)

 P148 – Ayer  Hitam - Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong (MCA)

 N19 – Yong Peng - Ling Tian Soon (MCA)

 N20 – Semarang - Datuk Samsolbari Jamali (UMNO)

 P149 - Sri Gading - Datuk Ab Aziz Kaprawi (UMNO)

​​​​​​​N21 – Parit Yaani - Soh Lip Yan (MCA)

 N22 – Parit Raja - Norashidah Ramli (UMNO)

 P150 – Batu Pahat - Haliza Abdullah (UMNO)

 N23 – Penggaram - Kang Beng Kuan (MCA) 

 N24 – Senggarang - Zaidi Japar (UMNO)

 N25 – Rengit - Ayub Jamil (UMNO)

 P151 – Simpang  Renggam -   Datuk Liang Teck Meng (Gerakan)

 N26 – Machap - Abd Taib Abu Bakar (UMNO)

 N27 – Layang Layang - Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi (UMNO)

 P152 – Kluang  - Gan Ping Shou @ Gan Ping Siew (MCA)

 N28 - Mengkibol - Chin Sim Lai (MCA)  

 N29 – Mahkota - ​​​​​​​Datuk Md Jais Sarday (UMNO)

 P153 – Sembrong  ​​- Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein (UMNO)

N30 – Paloh - Teoh Yap Kun (MCA)

 N31 – Kahang - R. Vidyananthan (MIC)

 P154 – Mersing - Datuk Dr Abdul Latiff Ahmad (UMNO)

 N32 – Endau - Alwiyah Talib (UMNO)

 N33 – Tenggaroh - K. Ravenkumar  (MIC)

 P155 – Tenggara - Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba (UMNO)

 N34 - Panti - Hahasrin Hashim (UMNO)

 N35 - Pasir Raja - Rashidah Ismail (UMNO)

 P156 –  Kota Tinggi - Datuk Halimah Mohamed Sadique (UMNO)

 N36 - Sedili - Rasman Ithnain (UMNO)

​​​​​​​N37 –  Johor Lama - Rosleli Jahari (UMNO)

 P157 - Pengerang - Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said (UMNO)

 N38 - Penawar - Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain (UMNO)

 N39 - Tanjung Surat - Datuk Syed Sis Syed Abdul Rahman (UMNO)

 P158 – Tebrau ​​​​​​​- Datuk Seri Dr Hou Kok Chung (MCA)

 N40 – Tiram - Datuk Maulizan Bujang (UMNO)

 N41 - Puteri Wangsa - Abd Aziz Tohak (UMNO)

 P159 - Pasir Gudang - Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin (UMNO)

 N42 – Johor Jaya - Datuk Tan Cher Puk (MCA) 

 N43 - Permas - Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin (UMNO)

 P160 - Johor Bahru - Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad (UMNO)

 N44 - Larkin - Datuk Yahya Jaáfar (UMNO)

 N45 - Stulang - Ang Boon Heng (MCA)

 P161 - Pulai  - Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed (UMNO)

 N46 - Perling - Wong You Fong (MCA)

 N47 - Kempas - Datuk Ramlee Bohani (UMNO) 

 P162 - Iskandar Puteri - Jason Teoh Sew Hock (MCA)

 N48 - Skudai - Datuk S. Kanan (MIC)

 N49 - Kota Iskandar - Mohammad Khairi A. Malik (UMNO)

 P163 –  Kulai - Tang Nai Soon (MCA)

 N50 - Bukit Permai - Ali Mazat Salleh (UMNO)

 N51 –  Bukit Batu - Teo Lee Ho (Gerakan)

 N52 - Senai - Shen Poh Kuan (MCA)

 P164 - Pontian - Datuk Seri Ahmad Maslan (UMNO)

 N53 - Benut - Datuk Ir. Hasni Mohammad (UMNO)

 N54 - Pulai Sebatang - Datuk Tee Siew Kiong (MCA)

 P165 - Tanjung Piai - Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng  (MCA)

 N55 - Pekan Nanas - Tan Eng Meng (MCA)

 N56 - Kukup - Datuk Md Othman Yusof (UMNO)

Maybe you all can read this again,

• Tok Moy likely to be the new Johor MB

Selangor Sultan is cool

I like this,

Selangor Sultan above politics & always impartial

Yes, that's the way it should be because ours is a constitutional monarchy.

It's not absolute monarchy like Brunei, okay.

Anyway, I always like Sultan of Selangor since back then.

He's cool.

Okay, he may not be perfect but I think he tried his best for his rakyat.

If he says he loves his rakyat, I would have believed him.

One thing for sure, I'm not aware of him taking advantage of his people in anyway.

For me, that's good enough.

Well, that's actually my only message for today.

Can't write much on GE14 for now because I'm still not on the ground yet.

Things are getting exciting, I guess.

Others were lucky because they got to see how things actually were and therefore could write properly about it.

Me, for now I have to agak-agak only.

You can read what I write but I don't blame you if you don't really believe what I wrote.

At least that's for now.

So, it's better for you all to read more of those written by the ones on the ground and see things for themselves.

I hope to go down to JB later.

See lah how.

For one thing, I have not yet decided whether to vote for Jazlan or Salahuddin in Pulai.

Want to see them in action on the ground first.

Seriously, I'm really politically neutral for now, like Sultan of Selangor.

Okay, at least I'm trying.

Tok Moy likely to be the new Johor MB

I wrote this on April 3 2013, just a month before GE13,

Johor will have a new Menteri Besar 

excerpts,

For now, the leading contender for the Johor Menteri Besar post in the event BN retains power in the State is Datuk Md Othman Yusoff who is the Tanjong Piai Umno division chief and Kukup assemblyman.

Othman, who is a businessman by profession is said to be the preferred choice of the Johor palace.

As it turned out, it didn't happen and DS Mohamed Khaled Nordin became the MB while Othman didn't even defend his Kukup state seat.

Affectionately called Tok Moy, Othman instead became the executive director of Country Garden Pacificview Sdn Bhd.

I'm not really his fan but I have to admit that the guy is actually quite good with what he does and his relations with the Johor palace is still very good.

Here is a story of him in action from August last year,

Forest City on right track

Now I have been informed that Othman is once again a candidate for the Johor MB post.

The info I got seemed so credible that I'm now once again putting my bet on Othman being placed as a candidate for his old Kukup seat and then made the number one guy in Kota Iskandar after this coming GE14.

As for Khaled, I was told that he is going back to Putrajaya.

The only other Johor Umno leader who was said to be still a candidate for the job now is Ayer Hitam division chief Samsol Bari Jamali who is also the party's current state information chief.

So, you all can forget about what I wrote in this post on Nov 1 last year

• Possible new Johor MB candidates

,
That one tak boleh pakai punya.

Okay, all these provided BN wins in Johor. The likelihood of that happening is quite high now, actually.

Well, that's all I want to tell you all today.

Cheers.

No such thing as padi crisis

GUEST BLOGGER

By Lebai Sudin

Salam Sejahtera,

Dalam sibuk-sibuk nak PRU-14 ni, elok juga cerita lain sikit.

Asyik hal politik pun bosan juga. Lebih-lebih lagi tengok kerenah orang politik, yang dulu duduk semeja dah bergaduh dan lagi pelik, yang dulu bercakar kini berpeluk-peluk. Entah ye entah tidak.

Aku…tetap nak cerita pasal padi. Sebenarnya ada juga le kaitannya dengan PRU-14. Ada macam suatu usaha nak hangatkan isu padi, beras, LPN dan Bernas ketika musim pilihan raya ini. Macam nak menangguk, ambil kesempatan atau nak tumpang semangkuk.

Sebab itulah, secara berterusan Padi Rescue yang mengakui memperjuangkan industri padi dari semasa ke semasa membangkitkan tuntutan 14 perkaranya. Mereka kata nak bela nasib pesawah. Tapi 14 perkara itu paling pokok suruh kerajaan hidupkan semula LPN (Lembaga Padi Negara). Peliknya, LPN ketika wujud dulu, bukannya jaga soal pesawah, LPN jaga post harvest.

Samalah juga bila LPN jadi Bernas, ia jaga selepas tuai. Sebelum tuai, Kementerian Pertanian le…

Dalam bab pesawah ni, yang kononnya diperjuangkan oleh Padi Rescue (walhal ramai pengilang yang melibatkan diri atas kepentingan kilang mereka), aku ada terjumpa satu rencana video di facebook.

Nama facebook tu, Apa Khabar TV.

Musonnef Md Radzi, pengilang padi di belakang gerakan Padi Rescue ada ditemubual dalam video apa khabar TV ini. Beliau jadi jurucakap kepada gerakan Padi Rescue. Beliau bercakap soal nak bela pesawah, dan sempat dia selit pihaknya sebagai pengilang bagi platform kepada perjuangan pesawah.

Tapi video Apa Khabar TV ini memang adil. Musoneff bercerita tentang nasib petani, kesusahan petani sedangkan beliau bukan petani.

Menariknya, petani yang ditemubual oleh Apa Khabar memberi cerita berbeza. Dalam video yang sama, petani mengakui bahawa pendapatan mereka lumayan, ada yang RM5,000 dan RM15,000 sebulan. Ada yang dah miliki aset untuk urusan kerja sawah hampir setengah juta.

Mereka kata, yang susah ialah pesawah yang tidak turun ke sawah atau tidak memantau kerja-kerja di sawah. Pesawah yang rajin ke bendang dapat atasi masalah penyakit, serangga perosak, padi angin, sambau dan sebagainya.

Betullah, kalau tak pantau dan tengok sendiri, siapa yang pedulikan bendang kita. Siapa yang nak ambil tahu kena pastikan tiada serangga perosak seperti siput dan lain-lain.

Malah, dalam bidang apa pun, kita kena ambil tahu, kena terlibat dan kena pantau. Tak percaya tanyalah pemilik kedai mamak. Kalau biar kepada pekerja sahaja uruskan dari A hingga Z, melingkuplah.

Aku ada kawan operator stesen minyak. Dia memantau urusan kaunter setiap hari. Kalau tidak pasti akan berlaku masalah. Aku juga ada kawan yang berniaga pasar mini, tetapi gagal apabila semua urusan serah kepada pekerja.

Maka, bidang apa pun, setidak-tidaknya kena pantau sendiri.

Kalau tidak macam mana Petani Mahu Jadi Tuan Padi, Tuan Beras seperti yang dikehendaki oleh video dalam facebook Padi Rescue. Mahu jadi tuan, tapi orang lain usahakan bendangnya dan semua urusan berkaitan. Dia duduk goyang kaki. Apabila padi dituai dengan mesin dan diangkut oleh lori, dia tak ikut ke kilang pun. Macam mana dia nak tahu kualiti padinya. Boleh ke begitu?

Aku bukan mahu merendah-rendahkan sesiapa, namun video Apa Khabar TV jelas menunjukkan macam mana petani berjaya. Tontonlah, kita akan faham mengenai di mana ada kemajuan di situ ada jalan.

Kalau tonton video itu, ada nama kumpulan Kelab Jelapang Padi. Mereka berjaya sebagai pesawah dan bersedia untuk mengongsikan ilmu kepada orang lain. Orang kuat kelab itu, Jaafar Zakaria (Lebih dikenali sebagai Bang Chin), mengalu-alukan orang yang sudi belajar ilmu mengurus sawah. Beliau ada tapak ujian (test plot) padi di halaman rumahnya.

Katanya, mereka yang sambil lewa bersawah akan berdepan beberapa permasalahan. Apabila sawah tidak dijaga dengan betul (bukan lepas tanam biar tunggu hingga padi masak), hasilnya tidak menguntungkan. Padi yang rosak dan padi muda akan kena pemotongan tinggi.

Tahun lalu, Bang Chin menerima anugerah Outstanding Rice Farmer dari International Rice Institute, di Manila. Siapa kata penanam padi tak boleh berjaya dan hanya tertekan hidupnya?

Dalam kawasan MADA sekarang, ada 6,000 pesawah muda berbanding 55,000 petani yang usahakan bendang. Anak-anak muda ini yakin bahawa mereka boleh maju dengan syarat buat kerja dengan betul. Bukan hanya mengharapkan orang lain buatkan untuk kita dan lebih buruk lagi asyik cari salah orang lain, tapi kelemahan sendiri…

Itu pasal malas aku nak ulas tuntutan 14 perkara Padi Rescue…Ketika LPN ditubuhkan dulu pun tujuannya mengurus selepas tuai. Peranan itu dilaksanakan Bernas sehingga ke hari ini. Malah, Bernas adalah pembeli terakhir hasil petani.

Maknanya kalau tidak ada pihak yang beli hasil petani, tak kiralah apa sebabnya (biasanya soal mutu padi yang rendah), Bernas mesti beli. Arahan kerajaan dalam hal ini tiada tolak ansur. Bukankah mereka ini terbela? Lantas perlulah mereka ini berusaha, agar pembelaan itu menjadi lebih bermakna.

You want Khaled or Ghani to fight Muhyiddin in Gambir?

This is interesting,

Muhyiddin hints at running for Gambir state seat

Well, of course the follow up story is this

Johor BN determines to ensure Muhyiddin's defeat

Typical Khaled Nordin's statement.

Anyway, I think Muhyiddin's possible move to Gambir has the same reasoning as my thoughts in my last post

• The next best thing for Pakatan - capturing Johor

Yup, if Muhyiddin really decides to contest that state seat, then it's an obvious move to prepare himself to be the first Pakatan Harapan menteri besar of Johor.

As for the parliament seat he said he's contesting, I'm quite sure that he will defend Pagoh.

There were talks that he's to contest Muar which BN is holding by a slim majority in 2013 but that one was given to the boy Syed Saddiq.

I doubt Muhyiddin will risk going to another parliamentary constituency where his chances of winning are not so reassuring.

Back to that Gambir seat, it should be noted that in 2013,  Johor MIC chief M. Asojan received 8,705 votes (46.6 per cent) to win by a razor thin majority of 310 against the then Johor Pas chief Mahfodz Mohamed who received 8,395 votes (44.9 per cent) and two independant candidates. At that time, Gambir had 21,382 voters consisting Malays (55 per cent) Chinese (40 per cent) and Indians (4 per cent).

In the previous general election in 2008, Asojan had won in Gambir by a majority of 2,463 after he received 8,190 votes (58.8 per cent) as compared to Pas candidate Kasim Ibrahim who received 5,727 votes (41.1 per cent). That year, Gambir had 18,724 voters with almost the same racial demographic as in 2013.

So, I think if Muhyiddin is really going to Gambir against Asojan, his chances of winning are actually quite good.

As it goes, even if Pakatan fails to capture Putrajaya but captures Johor, Muhyiddin can become the state's menteri besar again.

That would be quite something, I think.

For instance, I do wonder how will be the relations between a Pakatan state government led by Muhyiddin and the Johor palace.

For context, read this,

A tale of two former MBs

That would be awkward, I think.

Well, whatever it is, I still think the chances of Pakatan capturing Johor are quite slim. As I wrote previously, I only gave at most 35 per cent of that happening.

Bear in mind that in 2013, about 83 per cent of Malays who voted in Johor sided with BN. This has always been the case in Johor, which is the Umno's tiang seri.

However, I think Johor BN should not rest on its laurels and instead go head on against the Pakatan threat.

Well, the best should be, in my humble opinion, for Khaled himself to go against Muhyiddin in Gambir.

Seriously okay.

After all, the guy said Johor BN will ensure Muhyiddin's defeat.

What better way than he himself defeating Muhyiddin, right?

Hey, if former MB TS Abdul Ghani Othman can face off with DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang in the Chinese majority Gelang Patah in 2013, surely Khaled can do the same with Muhyiddin this time. At least it would be a more even fight as Gambir is a Malay majority constituency.

If Ghani can be so brave to lead the charge at the frontline, surely Khaled can do the same instead of contesting a safe seat.

Well, I really hope Khaled is brave too.

Really.

Interestingly, Gambir is part of Ledang, which Umno division used to be headed by Ghani.

Hmmm....unless Khaled wants to get Ghani out of retirement to fight Muhyiddin there for him....interesting isn't it?

That's a possibility, right?

Khaled and Ghani at Saujana on the day Johor BN announced its candidates for the 2004 general election

Hmmm....I don't think so. That's not going to happen.

Ghani may even get angry with me for suggesting it.

Sorry Datuk Ghani.

I''m just kidding a bit on that part, okay.

Well, I still prefer Khaled to fight Muhyiddin in Gambir, anyway.

That would be a real macho fight for the Johor MB seat, don't you think?

Whatever it is, I think this potential Muhyiddin versus Khaled in Gambir may even eclipse that fight at

• Ground Zero, Ayer Hitam

This build up for the Battle of Johor is getting very interesting indeed.

The next best thing for Pakatan - capturing Johor

In my  last post I predicted that

BN will win

Just now someone asked me via WhatsApp whether Pakatan still have any chance at all.

This is my reply,

-  Not impossible but it will be an upset if opposition wins. They need to totally overwhelm BN in all the states in the West coast to do that. Pakatan is very weak in the east coast and Sabah Sarawak.

Well, the chances of Pakatan to "totally overwhelm" BN in the West coast are actually rather slim, if you asked me.

They may win quite a lot of seats and even be dominant in Penang, Selangor or even Kedah, but that most likely will not be good enough.

That, unless something spectacularly incredible happen in the East coast and Sabah.

Sarawak is totally BN's, okay.

So, really, despite me not yet being on the ground, I can calculate that the odds are against a Pakatan's victory.

Nonetheless, I'm of the opinion that the next best thing Pakatan could achieve is to capture Johor, the birthplace of Umno.

Seriously, I don't think Umno will ever recover if Johor falls.

If I'm a Pakatan strategist, I would throw all I have into the fight in Johor.

Of course it's not going to be easy, but I think the chances of Pakatan capturing Johor are actually better than the chances of it capturing Putrajaya.

Further more, looking at the BN's preparations for GE14 in Johor so far, I don't think it will do any better than in 2013.

If Pakatan pushes hard enough, I think an upset could be possible.

Still, the chances of this happening are just about 35 per cent, at most.

Pakatan parties, with the exception of DAP simply do not have the proper machinery or even enough credible candidates in Johor.

This is especially so in the case of Pribumi, which will contest the most number of seats in Johor from among the Pakatan component parties.

Most are ex-Umno people who are no longer in  mainstream politics.

Honestly, I prefer the Amanah people in Johor than those from Pribumi. I personally knew some of the Amanah people there and I think that they are quite decent people.

Therefore, I think Pakatan would have better chance if Amanah lead the charge instead of Pribumi, especially in trying to break the Umno's stranglehold on the Johorean Malays vote bank, which remains solid till the last general election in 2013.

But that's just me and my thoughts.

Doesn't really matter, okay.

So, yes, if I'm a Pakatan supporter I would not despair if the opposition coalition losses GE14 provided that it wins in Johor.

Imagine this, Pakatan controlling the three richest states in the country - Selangor, Penang and Johor.

Okay, they may also capture Kedah and Perak too.

Not bad, what.

For one thing, losing Johor will at least force Umno to do something drastic.

It can't remains the way it is now after losing its birth place and once strongest fortress.

It has to change for the better.

All the shits within it must go.

They have to get rid of the ugly faces who caused Umno to be hated so much by so many people that they even lose Johor on top of everything else.

Well, see lah how.

I will only be able to go on the ground just before nomination day.

Quite frustrating, actually, being forced to remain cooped up in office at a time like this.

But what to do....

Have to earn a living, okay.

BN will win....for now

This is my short WhatsApp conversation with a foreigner friend when they dissolved the parliament that day,

My friend is a keen observer of Malaysian politics due to his business interests here.

The guy is totally objective in his assessments.

And yes, both of us agreed that BN will likely win this general election.

I said the same at my school alumni WhatsApp group, which is totally dominated by Pakatan supporters.

Surprisingly, none of them tried to dispute me.

I just politely told them to get real.

Despite all the noises they made, they have to admit that the fight will largely be confined only in the West coast of the Peninsular.

BN is still strong in the East coast and almost totally dominant in Sabah and Sarawak.

I'm quite sure BN will have not much problem in Pahang and Terengganu where Pakatan's presence is rather limited. It may even wrest Kelantan from the weakened Pas.

Pakatan's sure bet is actually only Penang, Selangor and maybe Kedah.

Okay, they will also win most of the Federal Territories parliamentary seats in the Klang Valley.

But that's about it.

Yes, the fight will be intense in Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor but realistically we have to admit that BN still have the edge over Pakatan in those states.

Well, unless Pakatan can capture ALL these four states, which I highly doubt, then BN will win.

Seriously, I can't see it any other way.

All that despite the issues being highlighted by Pakatan.

So, that's my thought of GE14 for now.

But then again, I'm making this assessment without going on the ground yet.

I'm a totally armchair observer for now.

Still need to work to earn a living.

No dedak for me, okay.

Well, I'm hoping to get some time off from work soon to get on the ground before polling day.

The least I hope to do is to go around my home state Johor and see for myself how things are,

Then only I can be really sure about what I write.

Who knows, maybe I'm wrong.

See lah how.

Not so fresh Ong Kian Ming versus Old School guys

GUEST BLOGGER

By Putra Seri Kembangan

The nation is awaiting the line-up of big fights for the upcoming general election.

For now, let us reflect on this fascinating matchup the last time around, May 5 2013, of one particular contest that did not receive prominent coverage.

The Serdang parliamentary contest then, threw up all the footages, backdrop and personalities fit for a classic.

To appreciate its classic nature, let's return to 1969.

One, Yap Pian Hon was serving in the backrooms of an old clan association, the Yap's, founded way back in 1892.

He was plucked by the DAP to contest the Serdang state seat.

He won; only to cross over to the MCA five years later. He kept winning the local constituency, serving as a state Assemblyman, Selangor Exco member, and subsequently as a parliamentarian and sensationally as an "independent" vice president of MCA.

Dato Yap Pian Hon went on to retain his VP post despite not being honoured with a Cabinet nomination by his party.

In 2013, when the parliamentary seat was already known as Serdang, Yap Pian Hon contested against a wannabe, Ong Kian Ming, who chose a pathway diametrically opposite to Yap's.

Ong Kian Ming arrived in Serdang via the think-tank/consultancy/PhD route.

Old School versus fast-talking, viral-compatible aspirant.

Caught in another wave of political Tsunami, Yap Pian Hon was defeated.

Ong Kian Ming went to parliament, picking the right, shareable themes to maintain a high visibility presence.

Yap Pian Hon stayed on in his turf, Seri Kembangan, where he had in the mid 1990s raised funds to build a neighbourhood MCA building. He still operates out of the building which has effectively obscured the Serdang MCA Division. The divisional operations,  it seems, have slipped comfortably into the role of a defeated outcast.

Yap Pian Hon does his own paper cuttings and is active on Facebook. He straddles old and new territories.

In fact,  he  has consolidated his NGO grounding, heading a coalition of about 30 local NGOs.

The national media is cordially invited to speak to individual NGOs to have a sense of the mood on the ground.

The national political conversation tends to   ignore grassroots topics. We hope this will change.

Telltale signs are there. The media, the other day, visited Yap Pian Hon at his service centre, highlighting some of the bread-and-butter issues in Seri Kembangan.

Ong Kian Ming, meanwhile, may have developed a reputation as an enviromentalist but some urgent envinromental issues in Seri Kembangan have apparently been ignored.

Ong Kian Ming comes across as an  ideologue, someone routinely sought for quotes by the media, and a feature in panel discussions.

 Is he at the same time, a hands-one wakil rakyat?

He has not articulated his thoughts on Seri Kembangan regressing into a slum, "recycling" centres popping up in residential areas messing  up the neighbourhood, and new traffic dispersal project that has added to traffic woes.

Are the Ong Kian Mings of the world doggedly preoccupied in chasing fashionable issues that will burnish their credentials at the national level?

Yap Pian Hon, now 74, is ready for another round of strenuous campaigning. He may contest the State seat of Seri Kembangan rather than the Puchong parliamentary seat. Serdang is no more under the redelineation exercise.

If Ong Kian Ming defends his seat, he will still come up against the grandee Yap Pian Hon on campaign rounds in Seri Kembangan.

Will Ong Kian Ming's lack of grassroots touch be sorely exposed?

 Is he contesting in Puchong or will he seek a safer seat like Kepong? Like Yap Pian Hon, the incumbent Kepong parliamentarian, Dr Tan Seng Giaw is an independent-minded operator. He has declared his intention to defend his seat.

Ong Kian Ming may be adept at theorising politics. He must now demonstrate his fighting qualities.

He should, uppermost, contest the notion that he has neglected his constituency.

At 42, Ong Kian Ming must have been devastated by the new awakening.

He has ceased to be youthful and two prized fighters may just take him on - Yap Pian Hon in Seri Kembangan and Dr Tan Seng Giaw in Kepong.