Perikatan will not collapse if Umno pulls out now

 I saw a story yesterday which said that the Umno supreme council will decide on Sunday whether to stay or leave the Perikatan government.

The story quoted sources, so it's not really that credible.

Sources stories tend to be sos chili or sos tomatoes stories only.

Still, this could be fun to discuss.

Well, as I previously wrote, I think Umno and its BN allies should stay in the government until the parliament has been properly dissolved.

We need a functioning government amidst this Covid-19 pandemic and I'm of the opinion that the better ministers now are those from Umno and BN.

Okay, they are not great but still better than those from Pribumi Bersatu and the others.

Also bear in mind that the state of Emergency is still on.

That means the Perikatan government will not collapse even if Umno and its BN allies order their ministers to resign and announce themselves as opposition parties.

Muhyiddin will simply appoint new ministers to replace them.

Doesn't matter if the new ministers are as useless as those already in the Cabinet.

This will be the case until August when the Emergency was supposed to end.

But will it ends?

The Covid-19 numbers are still bad, okay.

They may just prolong it further, and I have a feeling that they will only lift the Emergency when they are sure they can stay in power.

Let's say it stretches to early or middle of next year. That's a long time and anything could happen.

Well, we already have Pakatan people, who were supposed to be men of integrity jumping over to Perikatan.

Give some more time and more may jump, I think.

So, Umno pulling out of the government now would be a bit of a silly move.

At least if their ministers are still there, they could do something for the rakyat and provide some checks on what the government is doing.

Surely, not all of the Umno ministers are Pribumi Bersatu stooges.

Okay, if Umno really wants to show that it's serious about telling off Pribumi Bersatu, it could just order those in the GLCs to resign.

As I previously wrote, that will not hurt the rakyat.

After all, those are mostly the useless fat cats who make Umno looked bad anyway.

Then there's the matter of Umno elections.

Despite my dislike of many Umno top people now, I'm of the opinion that they should postpone it until after GE15.

If they have it now, Umno will be weakened by the ensuing infighting of which it would not have enough time to recover to face an election.

My hope is that for Umno leaders, particularly its president Zahid to play this one wisely.

As I had said, he can stay on as president but let Mat Hasan takes charge.

Let Umno have a fresh face to present to all Malaysians.

I dare to hope like this because Zahid and Mat Hasan seemed to be going well together of late.

They seemed to have a united front by making the same stand, such as during the recent party general assembly.

Maybe Zahid has realised that the relatively credible Mat Hasan is actually his best hope to survive the fight.

It most probably that he had seen it that for him to survive, Umno needs to win GE15.

And in order for that to happen, he needs Mat Hasan to be there for Umno and him.

I'm confident that Mat Hasan would be there and deliver if given the chance to do it.

Zahid should start by making Mat Hasan, as a party deputy president should, the director of Umno/BN election machinery again.

He should correct the awful mistake of giving that job to the boorish Tajuddin Rahman, whose image alone makes Umno look like a Malay gangster party.

If Zahid does that, it would give Umno people the semangat that they needed.

After all, they need to regain the momentum that brought Umno the string of by-election victories before the Pakatan's collapse.

Yup, I don't mind repeating it, Mat Hasan is the key for Zahid and the rest of Umno.

And probably for the rest of Malaysians too.

iChang and Jimmy - appreciating Malaysia

 I'm a bit tired of writing about politics or the other depressing issues for now.

They are all making me feel as if Malaysia is dying and that there is no hope for it anymore.

Really. Before GE14, PH said the country is going down the drain if Malaysians don't give them a chance to rule, but after Malaysians kicked out BN and gave them the chance to rule, they just make things even worse.

And now with Covid-19 and PN doing don't know what, it's really seems we are going down the longkang faster than before GE14.

But, does it has to be that way?

Do we always have to complain from start to finish?

Hey, those politicians have been complaining way before GE14 and after all the shit that happened, they are still complaining.

I seriously think we don't need to listen to them, or even worse, become complaining bitches like them.

At least not all the time, okay. 

So, for this posting, I want to write about something positive.

Okay, do you realise that the people who complained the most about Malaysia are Malaysians.

We bitched against our own country on about everything.

We don't seemed to realise how lucky we are for being Malaysians.

And that brings me to my favourite YouTubers - the young husband and wife couple of iChang and Jimmy.

I believe that many of you may already know them, especially iChang, but this is my take on them.

They are Japanese living in Hong Kong.  That's because Jimmy is a former cabin crew of Cathay Pacific, currently laid off due to Covid-19.

They are very much in love with Malaysia and even fly a Jalur Gemilang flag in their small Hong Kong home.

And they are such a fun couple. iChang is really cute funny while Jimmy is super crazy funny.

I just love the way they expressed their love for Malaysia in their videos.

Especially their attempts to cook Malaysian dishes and expression of happiness when they ate what they cooked.

Despite not being professional cooks, they went to great length to cook the most difficult of authentic Malaysian cuisine and I really believe them when they said what they cooked was "SEDAP!!!"

Yup, they are even learning to speak Bahasa Malaysia. And they are soooo funnnyyyy while doing so.

This Japanese husband and wife team suffered withdrawal symptoms for not being able to come to Malaysia due to Covid-19. Really.

You all can watch their love affair with Malaysia at iChang's YouTube channel at,

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtbpZEdyGM6xfOaX_rv-H_A/videos

Watching them actually makes me appreciate Malaysia more.

Maybe, we are too used to what we have that we find it hard to appreciate them.

I know, some of you all would say that they were only here as tourists and they don't live the life of Malaysians, but still, the fact that they could see the beauty of our country and appreciate what we took for granted should mean our country is not too bad at all.

I hope things will soon get better for this couple and Jimmy will get back his job when Covid-19 is over.

I would love for them to come to Malaysia again and continue making good videos about our country.

Also, hopefully we have not messed up this country too much with our politics and complaints when they come here again.

I don't think they would want to cook a delicious dish from a messed up country.

Really.

Anyway, I'm actually a new fan of iChang, as I discovered her channel only recently.

I have however been following Jimmy's channel, which was about darts for much longer.

I enjoy his videos about darts because I play darts, obviously.

And I think his was among the best YouTube channesl about darts, despite it being mostly in Japanese.

You can go to Jimmy's channel at this link,

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6ncal_lvXbTPiomKAT3ZA

He actually hung out and played with current top dart players like Micheal Van Gerwen and legendary ones such as John Lowe.

Okay. that's all for this time.

Cheers.

(Note: If you want to watch the videos that I choose from channels of iChang  and Jimmy for this post, please go to the web version of this blog. Somehow, YouTube videos can't appear in the mobile version)

About Chinese boss and Malay bodyguards

I guess you all have heard about the case of the two Malay bodyguards who were assaulted by their Chinese boss because they were fasting.

Some people had immediately jumped to use the case as a weapon to attack the Chinese community.

I have to say that's very wrong of them to do that.

As far as I'm concerned, that's an isolated case of a crazy guy, who was probably high on something and not more than that.

I really hope that Chinese, especially those with Malay bodyguards are not going be targeted after this because of the case.

Just let the police handle it, okay.

Anyway, I do happened to have a Chinese friend who has several bodyguards whom he treated very well.

I have met him with up to seven bodyguards, all are whom either Malays or Bumiputera from Sabah and Sarawak.

Those that I talked to said they were treated very well by their boss, and some even said the Chinese guy was a bit like their big brother.

There was one Malay guy from Kedah who told me that he was very grateful to his boss for employing him, and giving him a good enough salary for his family to live relatively well back in his kampung.

Ya, my friend is quite generous.

His bodyguards are all well trained and equipped with firearms for their job  as well as having the opportunity for career advancements.

Really not bad at all.

So, that's why I strongly don't approve of those who used that particular case to further their racial agenda.

By the way, I'm not feeling very well of late and that's why I have not been updating this blog for the past few days.

Then there was something very sad that happened the other day and I'm still trying to get over it.

Later, when I'm feeling better, I will update this blog properly again.

Ciao. 

Pas may still choose Umno over Pribumi Bersatu

I have begun to suspect that Pas is not whole heartedly into siding with Pribumi Bersatu against Umno.

Here are excerpts of a Facebook posting by Pas' raising star Nik Abduh, the son of the late Tuan Guru Nik Aziz,

Adapun mengintip menggunakan jentera kerajaan demi kepentingan peribadi atau kepentingan parti masing-masing demi laba persaingan politik, maka ia adalah salah guna kuasa yang terlarang oleh ugama.

Setiap mukmin terikat dengan syarat dan janji dalam segala urusan muamalahnya sesama mereka. Pemerintahan adalah amanah. Menyalah gunakan jentera kerajaan demi membunuh parti dan saingan politik lain adalah khianat, salah dan dosa. 

Ia juga membantutkan usaha memulihkan demokrasi dan integriti yang sedang dituntut oleh seluruh rakyat.

Saya tidak tahu, jika benarlah intipan audio perbualan Zahid-Anwar itu, siapakah dalang intipan tersebut. Jika dia individu, dia menanggung dosa. 

Jika ia daripada jentera kerajaan, ia adalah amat salah. Bukan itu tujuan kekuatan intipan negara. Ia tidak bertujuan sewenang-wenangnya demi kepentingan individu dan parti.

Saya harap ia bukan daripada pihak kerajaan. Jika sebaliknya, saya berdoa dan berharap ia bukan daripada komplot PAS. PAS terhalang oleh hukum agama yang diimaninya daripada menggunakan perkara haram demi sampai pada matlamat perjuangan sucinya.

Well, that's quite different from the stand took by Pas' president Hadi and his supporters in the party on the matter.

I tend to like Nik Abduh for the guy has so far displayed a lack of ability to bullshit despite being a politician.

He's sort of says things as there are and appears to be quite an idealist.

If I'm not mistaken he was also the one who led young Pas leaders to kick out the pro-DAP gang who are now in Amanah.

So, there is still a possibility that Pas may turns around and choose Muafakat Nasional rather than Perikatan.

I was told that some of the older Pas leaders are also in favour of going into GE15 with Umno rather than Pribumi Bersatu.

Two of the top ones are Pas spiritual leader Hashim Jasin and deputy president Tuan Ibrahim. Both, I was told, have been quite close with Umno deputy president Mat Hasan since their party started really working together.

Whatever it is, Pas has yet to officially severe ties with Umno.

Maybe the more sensible Pas leaders like Nik Abduh have realised the danger of working with Pribumi Bersatu as its current leaders had proven themselves very capable of stabbing their partners in the back as what happened to Pakatan Harapan.

Umno, if led by someone good like Mat Hasan, probably pose a lesser risk to work with.

For this one, I recommend you all to read my previous post,

Pas' three routes

Zahid should learn from the Shahrizat experience....and Najib

 Do you all still remember the cow in condo scandal involving former Wanita Umno chief Shahrizat?

Go to this link if you can't remember - https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kontroversi_Pusat_Fidlot_Nasional

Well, that scandal exploded in 2011. Shahrizat's family got a huge government contract to set up a multi million ringgit cow farm and screwed it up.

But let's go back a few years earlier, to 2008 when Shahrizat, who was then the Wanita Umno deputy chief  lost to Nurul Izzah in Lembah Pantai in the general election that year.

Despite that defeat, she challenged her boss Rafidah for the number one seat of the party wing the next year and the Umno Wanita delegates, who were probably disoriented by the BN's poor performance in the general election decided to give her that post.

Ya, that was stupid.

Najib, who just took over the PM job from Pak Lah also got stupid and made Shahrizat a minister.

Then came the NFC scandal which made Umno looked like cow shit/dung among the public.

Shahrizat pleaded that she was innocent and insisted on continuing as Wanita Umno chief despite clear indications that the party would suffer from that scandal.

Wanita Umno people unfortunately continued to support her.

By the time it was the 2013 general election, it was clear that public anger over the NFC scandal was so bad that Shahrizat can't even find a safe place to contest.

BN did even worse in that election than in 2008 and I believe they lost several hundred thousands of votes just because of the NFC scandal alone.

Unfortunately Umno, once again still refused to learn from that.

Najib and his people insisted for the party to maintain its leadership status quo in the party election in late 2013.

Thanks to that, Shahrizat retained her post as Wanita chief and trumpeted her win in the party polls as an indicator that she was still popular and not guilty of any wrong doing.

Then came the 2018 general election and once again she can't find a safe place to contest yet still insisted that she could lead Wanita Umno to help BN win at the polls.

Stupid isn't it? Someone who can't even find a place to contest leading the Wanita Umno's charge into a general election.

Well, we all know now what happened to BN in that election.

Only when BN was already in the longkang that Shahrizat resigned her Wanita Umno chief post.

Too much too late, if you ask me.

It was a classic case of a leader who was willing to drag the party down by using it for self interest.

Selfish woman - that's how I will always remember Shahrizat.

Umno leaders and members now really need to learn from that. Stop being stupid by thinking that the world revolves around your wishes as elections were not won by just your votes. It's the people votes as a whole which win elections.

I wrote this before - a leader needs to step down/ aside once he/she can't handle a personal problem to the point of it affecting the party.

Now we have Umno president Zahid being attacked on all fronts.

Why? That's because he is a weak point in Umno's effort to revive itself due to his corruption cases and not so great leadership of the party.

His position may not be as bad as Shahrizat's back then but it's bad enough for the party.

The pro-Pribumi Bersatu faction in Umno are now calling for the party election to be held as scheduled later this year and it was quite obvious what they intend to do with it.

Umno will look like shit again if it doesn't hold the party election but if it does, the party will be split going into GE15.

Both ways look bad.

And this choice is ultimately for Zahid to decide.

Unlike Shahrizat, he now still have the time to avoid being always remembered as a selfish person who drag Umno down due to his own personal issues.

I have made the suggestion on what he should do in this previous post about

Umno's PM candidate

Yup, he should name his deputy Mat Hasan as the party's PM candidate.

Let Umno people rally around Mat Hasan who was responsible for the party's revival when he led them to a string of by-election victories before the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government.

He should also let Mat Hasan handles the coordination of Umno/BN campaign for GE15 as according to his sound judgement.

I'm quite sure the public's perception of Umno will dramatically shift for the better if Zahid does that. 

I don't even mind Zahid continuing as Umno president until the next party polls, which could be held after GE15.

That way Umno could be more focused and not be divided as they enter the electoral battlefield.

If Zahid does all this, he will be remembered as a selfless leader who sacrificed his position to save Umno.

I'm also quite sure Mat Hasan will be there for him when BN is once again in power.

I know, Zahid's "advisers" would definitely insist for him to "soldier on" as what Shahrizat did, but Zahid needs to remember that those people only wanted him to continue being where he is now due to their own selfish interests.

It's the same thing that happened to Najib whose judgement prior to GE14 was clouded by his advisers.

And now that Najib is in deep shit, where are those advisers?

Hopefully Zahid will learn from all those things that happened - from Shahrizat to Najib.

If he doesn't, then that's it - checkmate.

Oh, by the way, I think Zahid's enemies need to do a better job than that audio recording of what supposed to be his conversation with Anwar.

It was even less convincing than the Anwar's and Azmin's videos.

You see, these days the available technology enables people to manipulate stuff and anyone could be depicted as anything.

I made this one myself by just using an app installed in my phone;

Umno will not die of loneliness

The DAP Youth chief the other day said he got info that MCA and MIC will both defect from BN to Perikatan.

He also predicted that would be the end of Umno, which is DAP's long cherished dream.

Yeah right, Umno will die without MCA and MIC. Fine.

Okay lah, let's say Pas also joins Perikatan.

That means Umno will be going all alone into GE15.

But do you know that Peninsular Malays made up the majority in 128 of the 222 parliamentary constituencies in this country.

That's more than half.

Chinese on the other hand are the majority in 37 constituencies.

Indians have none.

Sarawak have 31 constituencies with the Malays there being the majority in 10 of them, the same as the Ibans while the Chinese have six, Orang Ulu have two and Bidayuh have three.

Sabah have 25 constituencies with Chinese being the majority in three of them while  non-Muslims Bumiputera in nine and Muslims in 13.

Do you all also know that if just 11 per cent of Malay votes that swung against Umno in 2018 go back to them, the situation will revert back to pre-GE14?

Well, the last series of by-elections won by BN indicated such a swing back.

Malays were angry with the then Pakatan government.

Why? They said it's because Umno played racial politics.

But isn't that the same that they accused Umno of doing before they won GE14?

So, what's the difference? I leave you all to ponder on that, okay.

Oh by the way, look back at how DAP conducted themselves to galvanise the Chinese to rally around it during GE13 while you all are at it. The Chinese tsunami, remember? The effect is still here today.

Okay, back to that 128 constituencies with Peninsular Malays majority, how many are really out right so?

If I'm not mistaken, 101 of them have above 60 per cent Malay majority.

These are where the big fight between Umno and Perikatan will be. Pakatan may field their own Malay candidates there but they have no chance of winning.

Let's say Pas really decides to join Perikatan and Umno is all alone, would their votes really be split 50-50?

Personally, I don't think so.

I don't believe Umno will be so stupid as to repeat their mistakes in 2018. Okay, some of their leaders are indeed stupid and selfish, but the majority are not.

As I wrote previously, if the Umno leadership make the right moves and show themselves as ready to change for the better, they will get most of the Malay votes.

I don't think the overwhelming majority of Malays want to do anything that will bring back the Pakatan government after what they went through those 22 months.

I believe most of them don't want their votes to be split again which would allow that to happen.

Bear also in mind that there will be more Umno versus Pribumi Bersatu fights than Umno versus Pas fights.

And Umno will only face real challenges from Pas in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.

I believe Umno will prevail in Kedah and Terengganu.

In the other outright Malay majority constituencies elsewhere, Umno will steamroll over Pribumi Bersatu and others.

Do note that Pribumi Bersatu and Pas have snowball chance in hell to win in constituencies other than these. I think the same goes with the Perikatan mosquitoes parties.

How about MCA and MIC if they join Perikatan?

What kind of "winnable" constituencies will they be given in this era of Chinese and Indian perpaduan ummah under DAP?

Will Pas machinery (Pribumi Bersatu doesn't really have one) be campaigning like crazy for them the way Umno people did?

Think about that ya MCA and MIC people.

Oh, and I think Umno will continue using the BN logo even if MCA and MIC don't want to be with it anymore.

Umno could also get independent non-Malay candidates to contest selected seats under the BN banner. 

Remember ya, that Orang Asli BN candidate who won the Cameron Highlands by-election was not an Umno member.

Also, other non-Malay-based parties may join BN as there will be no objection against them from MCA and MIC..

Really, I don't think Umno will die of loneliness as predicted by the DAP Youth chief.

MCA and MIC will also not die alone.

If they defect to Perikatan, they will die with Pribumi Bersatu. So definitely not dying alone.

MIC's silly threat

 Let's not beat around the bush on this silly one, okay.

When MIC president Vigneswaran yesterday said his party will "wait and see" on the Umno-Pribumi Bersatu fight, it was actually a threat to Umno.

"Give us what we want or we will leave and join Pribumi Bersatu gang," was basically what the MIC president was saying.

The guy went on to praise PM Muhyiddin for appointing his deputy Saravanan as human resources minister even without BN's recommendation.

"See, Muhyiddin gave us what Umno had not even bothered to offer," was the real message behind that.

But I can understand why MIC is threatening Umno now.

"Hey, Umno is under pressure because it does not want to be bullied by Pribumi Bersatu anymore, this is the time to squeeze it to get what we want," must be MIC's thought.

And Vigneswaran said MIC wants its "traditional" and "winnable" seats.

So privileged.

Well,  Vignes, you want to once again contest Kota Raja, is it?

It's by right a winnable place for an MIC candidate - 43.15 per cent Malays, 27.68 per cent Indians, 27.66 per cent Chinese and 1.51 per cent others.

Yet, Vignes lost that one as an incumbent to a Pas woman in 2008 by a majority of over 20,000. The other MIC candidates there were crushed even worse in 2013 and 2018. 

Where else? Sungai Siput?

That one is 36.28 per cent Chinese, 34.28 per cent Malays, 20.98 per cent Indians, 8.55 per cent Others.

Former MIC president Samy Vellu was a long time MP there until he lost it to a PKR's Indian candidate in 2008 by almost 2,000 majority. MIC candidates there continue to lose by even bigger majorities in 2013 and 2018.

Looking at the trend in such constituencies, MIC can't solely blame Umno for the losses. It must also be something wrong with itself that not even the majority of Indians want to vote for it.

I even believe that there are more Malays who are willing to vote for MIC candidates than Indians.

So, where are these MIC's "traditional" "winnable" constituencies?

Overwhelmingly Malay majority constituencies?

I seriously think MIC should just concentrate on doing work to win back Indians' support for itself rather than issuing threats to Umno like yesterday.

As far as I'm concerned, Umno had proven itself to be loyal to its allies and giving them seats where they themselves could have won on their own.

Look at the most recent one- Tanjong Piai by-election.

It's a clearly Malay constituency, and Pakatan fielded a Malay from Pribumi Bersatu at that time, yet Umno agreed that MCA was to contest there because it was a traditionally an MCA seat.

They did the calculation and found that BN could still win it with an MCA candidate and they gave it to them.

As for Cameron Highland, they did the calculations and decided that it's better to put an Orang Asli candidate instead of one from MIC and it worked out wonderfully.

If the calculations had said it's better to place an MIC guy there, I believe they would have done so.

It was not because of anything else.

MIC needs to have some faith in its ally.

Yes, there were some noises from within Umno that wanted to take over all the seats but those were only noises.

The Umno leadership had proven that they were capable of making the right choices as far as the party's allies were concerned as in the Tanjong Piai by-election.

Really, MIC was really being silly for making that threat yesterday.

I think MCA would agree on that. 

They did issue the same threat to Umno as what MIC did yesterday after BN lost GE14 but now they know that was not the right thing to do.

Umno people accepted the decision to field Wee Jeck Seng and worked hard to ensure he wins in Tanjong Piai. In fact I think Umno election workers worked harder than MCA people in that by-election.

I remember a video showing a Wanita Umno member standing in heavy rain by the roadside holding a placard begging for Tanjong Piai folks to vote for the MCA candidate.

MIC should listen to MCA president Wee Ka Siong on this one.

But if MIC still insists on being gangsta, then so be it.

Who are they to talk about the need for Umno to accept Pribumi Bersatu as an ally in a coalition when they themselves for decades objected against any other Indian-based party to join BN.

As far as I'm concerned, they can go join Pribumi Bersatu if that's what they think is best for them.

I believe Umno and MCA could find a different Indian-based party to represent the community in BN.

Pas' three routes

 This is how I see it,

Route One: Pas to get either Umno to join Perikatan or Pribumi Bersatu to join Muafakat.

This is the best option for Pas and it is working on it.

It is the best for Pas because the party will be the real winner when Umno needs to make concessions to accommodate Pribumi Bersatu in a coalition.

Umno will be weaker and Pas in the long run will emerge as the dominant Malay party.

You see, Pas doesn't have to make such concessions.

Pribumi Bersatu, being a fresh Umno's splinter party will not ask to be given seats in Pas areas. They would want those of Umno's.

Well, Pas won't even give them anyway even if they ask. "What is mine is mine, what is Umno's is yours," Pas would tell Pribumi Bersatu.

Pas' machinery doesn't even have to work for Pribumi Bersatu which doesn't even have real grassroots.

Umno will have to do that.

Imagine, how humiliating it is for Umno people having to campaign for Pribumi Bersatu candidates who whacked them like crazy before GE14, after GE14 and even now,

You all should know what they called Umno people.

Worst is for Umno people whose MP or Adun defected to Pribumi Bersatu when their party was in the longkang after GE14.

They now have to campaign again for those people who betrayed them.

If they are forced to do it, I think these Umno people will in the end quit the party.

They may even join Pas.

So, Umno will be weaker and Pas will be stronger.

 In the end Pas can take over the whole Malay Muslims perpaduan ummah thingy.

Yup, that's the best for them alright. 

If Pas is successful to achieve this it will indeed be 100 per cent the winner. It will ride the coming Malay Muslim tsunami, be part of the new government, and in the end be the dominant party in an all powerful Malay Muslim coalition.

The chances of it managing this is however, in my opinion is only about 20 per cent, at best.

Umno number one and two leaders seemed very determined for their party not to give anymore face to Pribumi Bersatu and the majority of Umno people seemed to support them. 

 Route Two: Pas to break ties with Umno and joins Pribumi Bersatu in Perikatan

This route is seen by many to be where Pas is going at the moment because of noises made by party leaders like Takiyuddin and to a certain extent Hadi.

It is however the worst of Pas options.

With that coalition, they will not stand a chance of winning anything in most parts of the country except for maybe in their strongholds in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

In fact, they will even have to face a resurgent Umno in those strongholds.

If Umno could do something fresh like putting Mat Hasan as its PM candidate as I suggested, Pas may even lose those strongholds.

The Malays actually do like fresh good leaders. 

Do take note that BN almost defeated Pas in Kelantan in GE11 in 2004 because Pak Lah was at that time seen as fresh and good compared to Dr Mahathir who stepped down the previous year.

Pas will also be over stretched if it has to take the burden of supporting Pribumi Bersatu which actually doesn't have any real machinery or grassroots support.

And in return, the chances of Pribumi Bersatu taking the fight to Umno and its BN allies would be about the same as Mat Sabu winning the most handsome Malaysian man award.

The most they could do is to take some (which I believe not many) votes off Umno/BN for the benefits of Pakatan.

Yes, this is Pas' option that Pakatan certainly like the most because it potentially could divide the Malay vote bank again like in GE14.

However, things are different now. No more tears of sympathy for Dr Mahathir as it was in GE14 which was what really devastated Umno/BN.

No more Umno members and supporters voting for Pas because they were angry with the Umno leadership but couldn't make themselves to vote Pakatan.

Umno, if it do the right things, could this time just steamroll over Pas, Pribumi Bersatu and their mosquitoes allies.

If DAP can create a Chinese tsunami, I think Umno could also create a Malay tsunami on its own.

Again, as I said, that provided if Umno makes the right moves. If it still want to be stupid like before GE14, then they will end up in the longkang again.

Still, I believe Pas leaders could see these likely scenarios and will try to avoid going into GE15 along this second route.

Yes, they are now making all kind of noises to dummy Umno into believing that they are willing to pull out of Muafakat in favour of Perikatan but the chances of that happening is I think just between 20 and 30 per cent. 

The chances of Pas being successful as a member of Perikatan is of course zero per cent. 

Route Three: Pas (after making all kind of noises) remains an ally of Umno in Muafakat and quits Perikatan

This is Pas' back up option to Route One.

If it can't convince Umno to give face to Pribumi Bersatu, this would be the better route for them.

They could safeguard their strongholds in the Malay states and may even have a chance of getting some seats elsewhere as Umno and its BN allies concentrate on battling Pakatan and crushing Pribumi Bersatu in areas Pas has no chance of winning.

If victorious, they will get to be part of the new government and push further some of their supposedly Islamic agenda. 

It's definitely better than sinking with Pribumi Bersatu if they choose Route Two.

The only drawback for Pas to go along this Route Three is that they will not get to take over from Umno being the dominant Malay party.

Pas is still 80 per cent a winner if it chooses this route.

At the moment, the chances of them doing so, I think,  is between 70 and 80 per cent.

Well, Umno may just get tired of their current noises and tells them to go fly kite with Pribumi Bersatu.

Umno's PM candidate

 I had a WhatsApp conversation early last month with a friend who is based in Tokyo.

He was asking me about the possibility of Umno really cutting ties with Pribumi Bersatu, which at that time was becoming a hot topic.

My friend is a senior analyst of a major Japanese corporation.

I believe that he needs to know about such stuff to advise his bosses about the investment risks in Malaysia.

After all, an Umno-Pribumi Bersatu split could cause the collapse of the Perikatan government, leading to more instability and higher investment risks.

I have always told him over the years that I'm not the best source for such intel but he somehow kinda like my take on the country's political happenings...or maybe it's just because I'm cute...hahaha.

Anyway, I just gave him my opinion which somehow is almost exactly what is happening now. Really.

- Umno grassroots really pissed off with Pribumi Bersatu for lording over them.

-  Umno leadership have to follow suit whether they like it or not.

- Umno will indeed cut ties with Pribumi Bersatu but not in a hurry to push for GE15 due to Covid-19 and the need to clean its house first.

- The Perikatan government is not going to immediately collapse, so no need to worry about the country suffering from more immediate instability.

My friend then asked, if Umno/BN go on their own into GE15, then would Zahid be their PM candidate.

I told him that they couldn't be that stupid.

Zahid is after all not really popular among the general Malaysian public.

He may hold on to his Umno president and BN chairman posts but he certainly can't be their PM candidate.

That would be disastrous for them and even Zahid should know that. 

So, in the end, this is the last bit of my WhatsApp conversation with my Japanese friend,

Yup, I suggested Mat Hasan as BN's PM candidate and my friend agreed.

My friend have been observing Malaysian politics for years, so I believe he knew why I recommended Mat Hasan.

The guy is actually the only Umno top leader that I currently like.

I'm not a big fan of Zahid and I don't like any of the vice-presidents, especially Khaled Nordin, as most long time readers of this blog already knew.

I don't know much about Mat Hasan though and only started to notice him after he led Umno/BN to a string of by-election victories that kick started the Umno's revival after their GE14 defeat.

His leadership was like a breath of fresh air for Umno when he took over the party leadership for a while from Zahid. 

I met Mat Hasan in person only once just before the Rantau by-election campaign and found him to be a bit of a gruff.

But still I like him for what he did to turn the tide for Umno.

Maybe it was just his no nonsense personality. Or maybe he was having a bad mood that day.

Doesn't matter to me.

For me, he lends the credibility to Umno's claim of wanting to be better than it was before GE14.

I really hope Umno will pick him as their PM candidate.

Hopefully Zahid has the wisdom to think the same to make way for Mat Hasan to play that role.

I believe that Umno/BN's chances in GE15 will be greatly diminished if they put someone else as PM candidate.

Really, Umno needs to have a new face to convince not just Malays but also the rest of Malaysians that it could offer a better leadership for the country.