Remember Ganabatirau, remember Adib

 As I expected, DAP replaced its former Klang MP Charles Santiago with another Indian candidate.

They picked former Selango exco V. Ganabatirau for the DAP safe seat.

Guess they need to really secure the 17 per cent Indian votes there. Probably because the 55 per cent Chinese votes in Klang may not be enough in the event BN fields an MCA candidate.

Ganabatirau's first statement after being selected for the parliamentary seat is this;

BN, PAS used Adib's death, ICERD to undermine PH

That's probably because he was one of the main characters in the sad saga of late fireman Adib.

When the incident at Sri Mariamman Temple in USJ happened in late November, 2018, Ganabatirau had quickly wrote on Facebook that a group of "Muslims" had attacked the Hindu place of worship.

Hundreds of Hindus then turned up to defend the temple with some engaging in rioting and burning vehicles.

Adib and his team were dispatched to the scene to put out the fires, only to be attacked by the rioters.

The fireman suffered severe wounds in the incident and later died.

Ganabatirau offered to apologise for his earlier Facebook post but didn't really do so,

Ganabatirau sedia minta maaf jika dapat redakan ketegangan

And that's all there is to it, as far as he was concerned.

Adib's death was the turning point for me.

I accepted his death as fated but racist arrogant comments such as by Ganabatirau and numerous Pakatan supporters following the incident convinced me once and for all that these people should never be allowed to rule this country again.

Well, I know that Ganabatirau will win in Klang and I have to endure seeing him in Dewan Rakyat after GE15. 

The other BJP wannabe extremists in DAP will probably be there too as they had been given safe seats by their party.

Well, too bad for me.

Nonetheless, hopefully they will not be in power again this time.

InsyaAllah.

Islam wins....then perpaduan ummah

Today I just want to celebrate the victory of Islam Makhachev over light weight champion Charles Olivera at UFC280 a few days ago.

It was a great victory, as the Dagestani managed to submit the very capable Olivera in just the second round.

Extra sweet was that Islam was coached by the great former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The celebrations were however a bit marred by a ringside incident.

Up and coming Swedish UFC fighter Khamzat Chimayev, who is originally from Chechnya got into a scuffle with a member of Islam's team, later identified as Khabib's cousin Abu Bakar.

The incident quickly became a hot topic and depicted as caused by the bad blood between Chechens and Dagestanis.

Chechnya and Dagestan are predominantly Muslim republics in Russia.

Khabib, who led the Dagestani team backing Islam was quick to realise that the whole thing was not good for Muslims' image.

Muslims fighting Muslims is bad.

So, Khabib invited Khamzat and his team to meet his team and they reconciled their differences.

Alhamdulillah.

Hopefully Muslims in this country can be like those guys.

InsyaAllah.

Malay candidates to replace DAP's Santiago and Kashturi?

This piece in FMT today looks weird,

DAP scores ‘own goal’ with Santiago and Kasthuri out

excerpts;

Unfortunately, the issue had become a racial argument in memes and posters on social media. “It will affect the Indian votes and the party leaders should know it,” said one source.

How can that be, as we all know, there's no racism in DAP, right?

Santiago was the Klang MP. Klang voters are less than 27 per cent Malays, over 55 per cent Chinese and  about 17 per cent Indians.

Kashturi was the Batu Kawan MP. Batu Kawan voters are about 21 per cent Malays, 56 per cent Chinese and 23 per cent Indians.

Both constituencies are DAP's strongholds that BN could never dream of taking over.

DAP can really put a dog there as its candidate and still wins.

Guess, everyone in DAP dreams to contest in such a constituency.

Still, I don't buy it that racism got anything to do with the squabble within DAP over those seats.

After all, it's normal for DAP to introduce new faces as its candidates.

No one was spared, except of course  certain party leaders who are considered as members of the A Team, who can remain as MPs for decades.

DAP had in the past even wiped out an entire state party leadership to introduce new faces...who are more aligned to the party's central leaders.

Former Johor DAP chief Dr Boo can confirms that.

So, Santiago and Kashturi cases are not unique and their supporters shouldn't complain about them being replaced.

Santiago's supporters particularly needed to shut up. 

They have been making all kind of noises the past week to the point of pulling up the racial card by saying that Indians will not vote for DAP if he's dropped.

I'm quite sure DAP will still field Indian candidates in Klang and Batu Kawan as the constituencies have a sizeable number of Indian voters there.

Where else could it place its Indian candidates if not at such constituencies.

Despite its claim of not tolerating racial politics, DAP does consider racial composition of voters in its calculations.

Nonetheless, DAP can always prove me wrong on that one by fielding Malay candidates in those safe seats to showcase its inclusiveness and at the same time increase the number of its Malay MPs. 

That would be nice, I think. 

Well, whatever it is, I hope DAP will place good candidates to replace Santiago and Kashturi.

It doesn't matter to me as BN is going to lose in Klang and Batu Kawan anyway.

At least if the incoming DAP MPs there are good, the people will be well served.

GE15: An early look at Johor

As it was in past general elections, I'm having an early look at my home state Johor, which many see as a reflection of what will transpire at the national level.

I'm doing this based on what I gathered from my sources on the ground in Johor, whom I believe are quite reliable.

I myself has not been to Johor since the Tanjong Piai by-election in November, 2019.

Currently, I'm not well enough to make the trip there. Not sure yet whether I'll be well enough to drive long distance to be there for GE15 like I did the past two general elections. On top of that, I'm no longer a registered voter in Johor.

Well, let's go through each of the 26 parliamentary constituencies in the state;

P140 Segamat

The over 55,000 voters are 46 per cent Malays, 43 per cent Chinese and 10 per cent Indians. PH won the seat in 2018 with over 5,000 majority but its PKR MP later defected to Pribumi Bersatu then PBM, I think. PH may win here again but BN may spring a surprise.

P141 Sekijang

The over 45,000 voters are 59 per cent Malays, 36 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 1,200 but BN is likely to regain it in GE15.

P142 Labis

The over 40,000 voters are 38 per cent Malays, 45 per cent Chinese and almost 15 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate won the seat in 2018 by a majority of over 3,000 and likely to retain it in GE15.

P143 Pagoh

The over 51,000 voters are 66 per cent Malays, almost 30 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. PN's Muhyiddin won the seat under PH ticket in 2018 with a majority of over 6,900. BN has a chance to wrest the seat as a significant bulk of Muhyiddin's votes came from the local Chinese community, which may not likely support him anymore after he took out Pribumi Bersatu out of PH in 2020, causing the collapse of its government. 

P144 Ledang

The over 77,000 voters are almost 56 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and about 4.6 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate won the seat in 2018 with over 8,600 majority but BN stands a good chance of winning it back in GE15.

P145 Bakri

The almost 74,000 voters are 44 per cent Malays, over 53 per cent Chinese and 2 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate retained this DAP stronghold in 2018 with a majority of over 23,000. PH is almost certain to win here again.

P146 Muar

The almost 60,000 voters are over 66 per cent Malays, 31 per cent Chinese and just over 1 per cent Indians. Muda president Syed Saddiq won the seat on PH ticket with  a majority of almost 7,000. He may retain the seat if PH backs his new party but BN still have a good chance to win it too.

P147 Parit Sulong

The almost 60,000 voters are 78.5 per cent Malays, over 20 per cent Chinese and less than half per cent Indians. BN's Wanita Umno chief Noraini won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 6,000 and she is almost certain to retain it in GE15.

P148 Ayer Hitam

The over 46,000 voters are almost 58 per cent Malays, 38 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. BN's MCA chief Ka Siong won the seat in 2018 by a majority of 303 votes but likely to increase it in GE15.

P149 Sri Gading

The over 52,000 voters are 65 per cent Malays, 33 per cent Chinese and about 1.5 per cent Indians. PH shockingly won in this once Umno stronghold with a majority of over 3,000 votes in 2018 but will likely lose it back to BN in GE15. 

P150 Batu Pahat

The over 98,000 voters are almost 56 per cent Malays, over 43 per cent Chinese and 1.3 per cent Indians. PH's then Pribumi Bersatu candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of almost 18,000. BN, however, has a good chance of winning the seat back as it was expected to field the popular ex-Rengit Umno assemblyman Ayub Jamil.

P151 Simpang Renggam

The almost 44,000 voters are almost 60 per cent Malays, 30 per cent Chinese and almost 9 per cent Indians. PH won the seat via Maszlee Malik in 2018 with a majority of over 3,000 but an Umno candidate may likely return it back to BN in GE15.

P152 Kluang

The almost 100,000 voters are almost 42 per cent Malays, 47.5 per cent Chinese and over 9 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 23,000 and almost certain to retain it in GE15.

P153 Semberong

The over 44,000 voters are 60 per cent Malays, 29 per cent Chinese and almost 9 per cent Indians. BN's Umno leader Hishammuddin retained his seat in 2018 with a majority of over 6,000 and likely continue to do so in GE15.

P154 Mersing

The over 48,000 voters are 81 per cent Malays, just over 14 per cent Chinese and 1.2 per cent Indians. BN retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 8,000. Sources told me BN will field former MB Khaled Nordin there in GE15. Kalau tak menang juga tak tau lah aku nak kata apa.

P155 Tenggara

The almost 45,000 voters are about 75 per cent Malays, 16 per cent Chinese and 6.6 per cent Indians. BN retained this Umno stronghold in 2018 with a majority of almost 6,000 and almost certain to do so again in GE15.

P156 Kota Tinggi

The almost 47,000 voters are about 88 per cent Malays, 9 per cent Chinese and 2 per cent Indians. BN's Halimah Sadique retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 14,000 and almost likely to do so again in GE15.

P157 Pengerang

The over 40,000 voters are almost 90 per cent Malays, 9 per cent Chinese and less than one per cent Indians. BN's Azalina retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 11,000 and likely to do so again in GE15.

P158 Tebrau

The over 123,000 voters are about 47 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and 11.5 per cent Indians. The PH's PKR candidate won in 2018 with a majority of almost 25,000 but later defected and now with PBM. PH has a good chance of regaining the seat in GE15 but so does BN if it fields the right candidate.

P159 Pasir Gudang

The over 124,000 voters are about 49 per cent Malays, 37 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate defeated Khaled Nordin in 2018 with a shocking majority of  almost 25,000. PH  does have a chance of retaining the seat but since BN was rumoured to be planning of sending Khaled to Mersing and field a better candidate there, the outcome has became more uncertain.

P160 Johor Baru

The over 101,000 voters are 52.6 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and 5 per cent Indians. The PH's PKR candidate beat Umno's long time MP Shahrir in 2018 with a majority of almost 20,000. PH may retain the seat in GE15 but that could be foiled if BN fields a good candidate.

P161 Pulai

The over 106,000 voters are 49 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. PH's Amanah candidate Salahuddin Ayub defeated Umno's Nur Jazlan in 2018 with a majority of almost 29,000 votes. I heard BN has asked Nur Jazlan to contest there again despite the guy previously saying that he's not interested. It's indeed going to be tough, but knowing Jazlan, I believe he will give his best shot and may still has the chance to pull it off.

P162 Iskandar Puteri

The over 138,000 voters are about 36 per cent Malays, almost 50 per cent Chinese and over 12 per cent Indians. DAP's Kit Siang retained the seat for PH in 2018 with a majority of almost 50,000. PH is almost certain to retain the seat in GE15 no matter who DAP field to replace the retired Kit Siang.

P163 Kulai

The over 99,000 voters are 35 per cent Malays, over 54 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. DAP candidate retained the seat for PH in 2018 with a majority of almost 34,000. PH is certain to yet again retain the seat in GE15.

P164 Pontian

The over 55,000 voters are over 68 per cent Malays, 30 per cent Chinese and just over one per cent Indians. Umno's Ahmad Maslan retained the seat for BN in 2018 with a majority of just 833 but BN is likely to improve that in GE15.

P165 Tanjung Piai

The over 53,000 voters are almost 57 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and just over one per cent Indians. PH won the seat in 2018 with a majority of 524 but was later thrashed by BN at the by-election there over a year later with a majority of over 15,000. There are no reason things will change there in GE15.

Okay, the numbers of voters I used here were based on that of general election in 2018 and they would definitely be higher for GE15.

However, since the percentages would rightly remain more or less the same, I believe my projection of the overall picture should relatively be accurate.

Some may say there are other factors such as young voters and such, but I still believe the percentages wouldn't change by much. Some young voters will be voting for PH but others, likely an equal number of them may vote for BN too.

Also to be noted was that in 2018, the percentage of voters turnout was over 80 per cent throughout Johor with the exception of Mersing which recorded  79.5 per cent. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout percentage decreases to just about 70 per cent in GE15. 

After all, many people are now fed up with politics, especially after the disappointing performance of the Pakatan administration when they came to power in 2018.

Otherwise, Pakatan wouldn't lose that badly in all those by-elections and state elections since that year.

Final conclusion - BN has 14 seats that it will most likely win, PH has five while another seven are too close to call at this moment.

The 14 seats BN should by right win are Sekijang, Pagoh, Parit Sulong, Ayer Hitam, Sri Gading, Batu Pahat, Simpang Renggam, Semberong, Mersing, Kota Tinggi, Tenggara, Pengerang, Pontian and Tanjung Piai.

PH's sure win seats are all DAP's at Labis, Bakri, Kluang, Iskandar Putri and Kulai.

The 50-50 seats, which could be won either by PH or BN are Segamat, Ledang, Muar, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Pulai and Johor Baru.

Yup, I believe it's going to be actually a straight fight between BN and PH in Johor.

PN and the mosquito parties will be wiped out there.

GE15 predictions

I'm expecting GE15 to be held about a month from now because everyone would need about that much time to prepare for it.

It would be better if GE15 is tomorrow but that's simply impossible.

The campaigning alone would take at least about two weeks.

The last general election held in November was in 1999.

To be exact, it was held on a Monday on Nov 29.

That was at the height of the end year monsoon season.

This time it would be a bit earlier, so that the risk of floods should be less.

Well, hopefully there will be no flood at all.

Anyway, I'm expecting BN to do well and will combine with the Sarawakians and Sabahans to form a stable federal government.

The results will most likely be similar to GE13's in 2013. The indicators all pointed to that.

BN will take most of the Malay-majority constituencies except the PAS' strongholds, particularly in Kelantan.

Pakatan will get all the non-Malay majority seats thanks to DAP.

Basically, things will be back to what it used to be - Malays divided between Umno and  PAS while non-Malays mostly united under DAP.

Sarawak and Sabah will have their own autonomous set-ups.

PKR will be half dead while Pribumi Bersatu, Amanah, and the other small parties will be truly dead.

Yup, that includes Muda and Dr Mahathir's Pejuang.

I don't expect BN and its probable Sarawak and Sabah allies to have a two-third majority in parliament but they would by right have enough seats to form a government, which is stable enough to properly manage the country.

Ideally, I wish BN will put Mat Hasan as its PM candidate but BN will likely stick with Ismail Sabri.

I'm okay with that. What's important now is for us to have a stable government.

As I previously wrote, we need it to face the expected global economic recession next year.

What BN should do if GE15 is in September next year

It gets a bit funny for me watching Pakatan and Perikatan people desperately scrambling to prevent GE15 from being held now.

BN is so strong now, is it?

It's rather comical that they are now using the monsoon season as an excuse to delay the polls while in actual fact we all know that they were all just trying to buy time.

Pakatan people are hoping to have more tine to get their shit together and for the current government to stumble in handling the expected global recession next year 

Perikatan people on the other hand were just trying to cling on to power as long as they could.

The GE15's deadline is in September, which means if they have their way, we Malaysians must endure another year of this currently bullshit situation.

I don't know about you all, but I'm fed up with it and want things to be settled now.

The country needs a strong and stable government with a clear mandate from the people to weather the coming global economic turbulence.

Well, Perikatan people have even sent a letter to Agong asking the guy not to allow the parliament to be dissolved now.

Let's say Agong actually listens to them. What should BN do then?

In my opinion, BN should just pull out of the government.

If Ismail Sabri and the other BN ministers refused to let go of their posts, then they should be sacked by their respective parties.

Let them be independent PM and ministers.

That way BN could distance itself from whatever the government do up to September next year.

If the government screws up its handling of the coming recession, which I think it will, the fault could then not be pinned on BN.

BN should not worry too much as I believe the people can now judge for themselves who should be blamed for their sufferings.

Umno and its gang should from now just be focused on their works and continue to prepare for GE15.

Helping the people and cleaning up the parties from rubbish and parasites should be the priority.

As for BN MPs who are itchy to continue supporting the non-BN government, they should be allowed to do so. 

Just don't nominate them again for GE15.

BN leaders facing charges in court and already in jail need to be patient and defend themselves the best that they could. 

They should have the faith that justice will prevail in the end.

And Malaysians, just remember who are the ones who don't want you all to have your mandate back to end the bullsit we are in now.

Pakatan shouldn't worry too much about a rainy general election

GE15 is almost certain to be held in the coming weeks.

At least that's the indications according to the latest reports.

Umno has even started to clean up house by throwing out some of its garbage.

Good lah. Hopefully the party will do more of that.

The more Umno get rid of such parasites, the better its chances would be in GE15.

Anyway, I'm now recuperating from my ailment in the East Coast.

Mostly just laying down a lot to rest my body.

It's raining here almost everyday but they were just moderate showers, especially in the late evening or early morning.

Guess the end year monsoon has already started a bit.

Well, the last time we had a general election around this time was in November 1999.

I was living in the north at that time and remember that it was quite wet.

There was no major floods though.

Voters turnout of that general election was 69.3 per cent.

For comparison, voters turnout in the general elections after that are better.  It was 73.9 per cent in 2004, 74.98 per cent in 2008, 84.84 per cent in 2013 and 82.32 per cent in 2018.

The general elections in 2004 and 2008 were held in March while those in 2013 and 2018 were in May.

Did the rain caused the lower turnout in 1999?

Probably.

But then again the turnout of general election in 1995, which was held in April was even lower at 68.3 per cent.

The voters turnout of general election in 1990 was even more interesting. Held on Oct 20 and 21 that year, it was 72.3 per cent, which was just slightly lower than those in 2004 and 2008.

So, it can't be just the rain.

My theory is that it's just because more people became very interested to participate in the political process during the 2013 and 2018 general election.

Who are these people, who became more politically aware the past one decade?

I believe the DAP people know the answer to that better than me.

You know, those who said we don't want to be second, third, fourth or fifth class citizens etc.

Go and ask them, okay.

Well, things have not been very well for them ever since the implosion of the Pakatan government just 22 months after their victory in 2018.

Things have been bad since then with many losing interest in politics as they struggle to make ends meet.

The Covid-19 pandemic and war in. Ukraine had made things worse not only in Malaysia but also the rest of the world.

I believe many are not so enthusiastic to vote in GE15, notwithstanding whether it rains or shines.

After all, they had tried Pakatan in power for 22 months and it didn't seem to make that much difference if not making things worse.

That would probably be the real reason for a possible lower voter turnout in GE15 rather than the coming monsoon rain.

Anyway, I don't think Pakatan and the other anti-BN/Umno people should lose hope.

In the monsoon general election in 1999,  BN, then led by Dr Mahathir took quite a beating due to Anwar's jailing the previous year.

Maybe things would be even better this time.

Who knows, voters may now be very disgusted with Umno after Najib was sent to jail for corruption the other day.

They may then overwhelmingly vote for another taste of Pakatan rule.

Yeah, maybe Pakatan may even make the same promises that they did in 2018 and the rakyat will believe them again like last time.

Oh, by the way, as Anwar said, his jailing was not the same as Najib's.

Malaysians are more sympathetic to people who were jailed after being found guilty of committing sodomy than corruption....aren't they?