Saturday, 19 December 2015

Malay Muslims unity - possible scenario post-GE14

There has been quite a bit of excitement over the recent development related to Umno-Pas relations.

Presidents of both parties, DS Najib Razak and DS Abdul Hadi Awang had both talked about unity of the Malay Muslims on the same stage.


Nonetheless,

Zahid says too early to interpret Najib-Hadi meeting


Well, the Umno vice-president may be right on that one, but I don't think what he said will stop people from talking about Umno and Pas working together, especially for the next general election.

I think the possibility of a cooperation between the two Malay Muslims parties is real and this can ends up in the formation of an alliance comprising Barisan Nasional and Pas.

Pas may not want to join BN but it may cooperate in the alliance by striking a deal in the choice of constituencies to be contested.

I think that should be the case in order to avoid discomfort among non-Malay Muslims parties within BN which may not be too enthusiastic to have the Islamist party in their rank.

In return, Pas may likely get some quite sweet deals from BN.

If the potential BN-Pas alliance really comes true, then the following scenario may be in store for the country after the next general election.

1. The state governments of Perlis, Malacca, Johor, Pahang and Sabah will be led by Umno (BN).

2. The state governments of Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan will be led by Pas.

3. The state government of Sarawak will be led by PBB (BN).

4. The state government of Penang will be led by DAP.

5. The state government of Selangor will be led by PKR.

6. Most parliamentary seats in the Federal Territory will be Pakatan's.

7. It is going to be 50-50 between Pakatan and BN in Perak and Negeri Sembilan. I can't say for sure who are going to win in these two states.


Special mention:

Kedah
Umno may likely want to remove current MB DS Mukhriz Mahathir due to his rebel tag. But this will prove to be difficult if it wants to strike a deal with Kedah Pas. Mukhriz is known to be well liked even among Pas members in the state. It will be difficult for them to accept any other Umno's MB candidate. The only way Umno may get around this is by offering Pas the post. A BN-Pas alliance will certainly be a winner in this state.

Penang
DAP will still rule supreme in the state even if they face a BN-Pas alliance. PKR and Amanah can count on their big brother DAP to boost their chances in the state. Nonetheless, BN and Pas candidates may win more seats than in the last general election, particularly in Seberang Prai.

Perak
Pas may not be able to help BN much in this state. Most of its strength has deserted to join Amanah. However Pakatan will not be at the same strength as in the previous general elections if Pas combines what's left of its forces in the state with BN.

Selangor
The Klang Valley is the base of the opposition against the establishment. I think the opposition will be able to hold on to this state. A BN-Pas alliance will not make much of a difference here. On top of it, Umno is in such a sorry state in Selangor that it will not be able to mount a credible challenge. Similarly Selangor Pas would not be much of a force without the votes of the non-Malay Muslims.

Federal Territory
It's going to be the same as Selangor. Most of the parliament seats of FT will still be with Pakatan. A BN-Pas alliance will mean little in the urban areas. Even more so with BN not very good at handling issues such as the Kampung Datuk Keramat affordable housing project. DAP to have the most seats.

Negeri Sembilan
It's going to be almost the same as Perak. BN, with Pas help may be able to win but not by much. It's likely going to continue being a two or three seats difference in the state assembly.

Johor
Most Johor Pas leaders have left the party to join Amanah. Therefore the alliance with BN will not make much an impact in the State. I have a feeling that Johor Umno and its current allies in the state are not really interested in such a cooperation. They may even feel that Pas will just be a burden to them. BN's immediate problem in Johor is on how to improve support among it's almost 40 per cent Chinese population. BN likely to retain the state but may lose more parliamentary seats.

Terengganu
Umno may likely give the MB post to Pas to lubricate the deal between the two parties. It has always been 50-50 between them anyway. Also, Terengganu Umno is not in the best of shape lately.

At the Parliament
BN may most likely form a coalition government with Pas. They will have a simple majority in Parliament. Najib will continue as PM with Hadi as his deputy.

32 comments:

  1. A PAS and UMNO alliance will win Selangor quite easily. Why do you think Azmin is so reluctant to let PAS leave? He knows that he and 8 or 9 other Malay PKR ADUNs along with the 2 Amanah ones will lose their seats when faced with such an alliance.

    There are close to 40 Malay majority seats in the Selangor DUN. I reckon if PAS and UMNO divide those seats between them, they've got an excellent chance of winning them all.

    And don't buy the bull about urban Malays preferring Pakatan. Get someone to do proper statistical analysis (eg using regression) of the last GE results and you'll find that this urban - rural split is a myth. The only reason PR did so well in urban areas was simply because there are more Chinese and fewer Malays living there.

    PAS is UMNO's only serious rival for the Malay vote. The two working together could easily secure 80-90% of the Malay vote, especially if they promise them an administration that puts Islam first. This should be enough to win all the states in Peninsular Malaysia, except maybe Penang.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. . . . especially if they promise them an administration that puts Islam first."

      And which Islam is that? And which one comes second?

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    2. but..malaysia consist sabah n sarawak.I agreed to most of you say..but that is only in penisular..remember most of bn component in sabah n sarawak do not like pas..their muslim is quite liberal and open..pas n umno alliance will secure almost 80 plus malay voters..but how about sabah n sarawak..issue here..will umno prefer to choose pas rather than sabah n sarawak bn component..we are not talking about malay voters only..malay n bumiputra will secure more than enough if they united..dap 22 majority chinese seat will be secured all by dap..that's it..malay in urban area is not too lean towards pkr...pkr just get support from chinese n pas supporters during ge13..pkr will be in danger so does pas..pas must ensure direct engage with harapan in kelantan..if want to win kelantan..if umno n pas cooperate ..easy win in penisular..bn will win in sabah n sarawak..chinese ini kalilah go to drain..

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  2. Zahid = Umno vice president, Deputy PM

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  3. Ha..ha...just for the sake of najib survival...

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    Replies
    1. najib mesti kena hukum hudud makan duit negara.

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  4. Sunnis and Shiah's have been at each others bollocks for 1,400 years. UMNO and PAS has been at each other for decades. UMNO is at its dead bed and need PAS to help revive it. Once revived it will do what it knows best. Play out PAS again.

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    1. You're wrong Anon 0915.

      The Arabs' split came about 400 years after the death of Prophet Muhammad SAW. In the quest for glory, gold and power, that was when people started to write what they thought, the Prophet had once said. The docile Jews then, took the advantage to impersonate as 'holy-man', hence split the Arabs further apart.
      Just because they 'worship' different Imams, they became Sunnis and Syiahs.

      If the Arab traders that brought Islam to the East were Shiah, the Malays too, would have been Syiahs today.
      Therefore, Najib's government MUST stay out of Arabic conflict, especially in Yemen. Just do as the Indonesian. Unless the Arab is the donor.

      There is no way UMNO can "Play out PAS again". Both are too weak to masturbate each other. It's PAN that is going to be played out.

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    2. RD, don't you ever get tired of always blaming someone else? When will you grow a fucking pair and man up for all the fuckery? Typical dross that blights the country you are.

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    3. Apa fucking fucking ni

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    4. Fucking Anon 1910.
      Grow a 'fucking pair' of dick so I can ram up your ass, relentlessly?

      Did I blame Najib for the split of Arabs into Sunni & Shiah?

      I can assure you that Najib is making a big mistake if he were to join that satanic 'Coalition of Islamic countries', coined-up by the Sauds to safe their ass from Yemenis warriors. Throughout history, Yemenis have never been defeated by anybody, on the ground that is.
      Unprovoked, Saudis had bombed its poorest neighbor and now after the Yemenis had occupied 10km into its borders, the Saudis cried foul.

      I can assure you that if Najib were to waste more of taxpayers money on this unnecessary war in Yemen, the result of which would be disastrous by GE14. Worst still if our boys were send to die for the Americans, Saudis' great-ally.

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    5. Malay/ Muslim First22 December 2015 at 05:53

      RD, Fucking Anon1910 is a fucking DAPig aka RBA. They sakit hati when Malays and Muslims unite. If they are not happy, they can balik tongsan. Chinese government of China is considering accepting oversea Chinese esp from SEA. What are you waiting for, Anon 1910?

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  5. What a sorry state Malaysia is if 2 conmen were to lead the country. Najib and Haji leadership will hasten Malaysia to join the failed state club.

    Frankly if what you predicted is true Annie, it merely further proved the point that PIS is as corrupt as UMNO. No money no religion.

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    Replies
    1. Yes..a classical OTSB that is
      ..come rain or shine

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  6. Question is, with UMNO being the dominant partner in BN now would they want to cede seats, state governments and federal posts to PAS?

    Who is there to say if PAS were given Kedah and Terengganu by BN that they wouldn't purge the local UMNO warlords when it comes to giving positions and contracts?

    That once they complete the purge, they would grab all the northern/east coast states and make it out on their own by GE15, completing a cycle of revenge?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's absurd. Both are at their weakest and since they are in a coalition, they are suppose to work side-by-side. Not a stand-alone kind of a coalition where purging is common, as in Pakatan.

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  7. Annie,
    Komen kamu ini menunjukkan kamu dan beberapa plogger upahan Najib tak pernah bersama atau menjadi ahli PAS , ia Hj Hadi bermasaalah sekarang sama seperti Najib lagi teruk , untuk survival terutama Najib dan lanun lanun nya baru ingat nak bersatu tapi Ahli ahli PAS sudah tiga puloh 40 tahun di basuh dan di hasut minda mereka untuk membanci umno terutama generasi muda yang ramai dan aggresif tapi mereka lebih hampir dengan PKR dan DAP saya yakin perkara ini bukan mudah apatah lagi dengan reputasi Najib yang jijik dan buruk dimata ahli PAS malah seluruh dunia , Kalau HJ Hadi berkeras alamat undi ahli PAS akan protes dan banyak akan lari kepada AMANAH dan PKR nak selamat Najib dan lanun lanun harus berambos "get lost" baru ada perubahan . Lain ulasan hanya nak bodek Najib dan menyedapkan ahli UMNO yang bahalol , bukan saya tak suka penyatuan muslim tapi masa ini dengan Najib sebagai Presiden UMNO yang seinonim dengan lanun amat sukar cuma hanya nampak elok diatas tapi masalah dibawah terutama pada ahli PAS yang seramai 1 juta orang , tak payah peduli cakap ulama pengampu najib mereka tidak realistik.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ko tahu apa perubahan yang cina nak buat..impian bergenerasi mereka..nak biang perkataan race kat ic..ko faham ke tidak.kalau tak de race kat ic..mana nak tahu ko bumiputra ke tidak utk dpt hak keistimewaan..otak ko lembap tak berfikir ke..tahu nak jatuhkan lanun la..ko ingat dorang redha ngan haknkeistimewaan..agama islam..tanah rizab melayu..bodoh punye melayu..fikir nk lawan rasuah je..pergi la tgk kat komen malaysia kini..bangsa ni komen..

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  8. There is no need for a coalition between UMNO and PAS, BEFORE the election. An understanding will do, where UMNO wins most of Parliament Seat in all States, while PAS wins most State seats, especially in Kelantan and Trengganu.

    AFTER GE14 result, if there is a hung Parliament, then UMNO and PAS could strike out a deal. One of it is, Najib MUST go.

    Reasons: By the issues brought-up by opposition campaign, most of it are related to Najib and they were unanswered. Jho Low, Deepak Carpet and Razak Baginda are not government employees.

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  9. So what?
    The country will still be in deep shit.
    And the fucking Melayu will still be fighting with each other to bankrupt the country.

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    Replies
    1. Except the fucking Melayu in PAN and DAP? And who if funding them? The fucking Evangelist Cina in DAP?

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    2. freaking bostarts jibby and jolow

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  10. Prior to GE13, you made similar prediction and it went miles wide. Pro-Government news are jubilant about signs of UMNO-PAS cooperation but statement by Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man is singing a different tune:

    "Tiada apa yang pelik untuk Presiden PAS untuk sepentas dengan Presiden Umno. Presiden-presiden PAS terdahulu sehingga kini pernah sepentas dengan presiden-presiden Umno. Al-Marhum Dato Fadhil Nor dan Tuan Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat berada sepentas dengan Tun Mahathir Mohamad dalam membicarakan isu Palestine, TG Dato Bentara Setia Tuan Guru Nik Aziz juga pernah berada sepentas dengan Tun Abdullah Badawi dalam pelancaran Eastern Corridor Economic Region (ECER) dan kini Tuan Guru Presiden berada pentas dengan Datuk Seri Najib Razak atas isu Perpaduan Ummah.

    PAS akan terus istiqamah di atas dasar Islam dan bersedia untuk terus duduk semeja dengan sesiapa sahaja bagi membincangkan isu negara melangkaui sempadan parti politik. Sebagai sebuah parti yang besar kita mesti mempunyai jiwa besar bagi menghadapi isu besar ummah dan negara. PAS akan terus menentang kemungkaran yang membahayakan rakyat dan negara."

    We, who are exposed to sentiments and chats on the ground, clearly see that PAS grassroots are not looking forward to working with UMNO. They just got rid of Amanah, who are somewhat less evil than UMNO. They are definitely not going jeopardise their ultimate goal, that is a path to jannah, by sleeping with the evils from UMNO.

    I don't see PAS becoming a white knight to save Najib's backside.

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  11. Unity talk on the same stage, really adinda Ms Annie?
    ( above pics )

    " Ya sedih juga isteri saya dan saya,
    teruk kena fitnah, Dato Seri"

    " Alaa kita serupa Dato Seri .. tak perlu jawab,
    memang kerenah golongan munafiq(?)"


    Haji M Zin
    Alor Gajah DPH

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    Replies
    1. Biasa la kalau awak tu suka memandai mandai dan merapu tampa pengetahuan dan maklumat sahih mesti kena skrew punya terima saja la kenyataann , hihihi.

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    2. M zin yang MUNAFIQ adalah orang yang suka cakap menipu , putar belit dan tidak jujor dengan cuba melindungi perkara yang salah , orang macam ini adalah NAJIB dan Kuncu kuncu nya , kalau kamu pun penyokong dan bersubahat kamu pun munafiq.

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    3. Zin mu jange abaikan hok duk mengampu ore besa

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3vEIndhZnk

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    4. Saya undi PAS pada PRU-13 Sdr ANON 11:49
      dan Tn Guru Haji lebih teruk dihina puak kapir.


      Caption to pics?
      OK must accept we apparently have serious serious so-po readers here who won't huhu see humour in my caption for the pics above.


      Haji M Zin
      Alor Gajah DPH

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  12. UMNO and PAS unity is not Malay-Muslims unity.They are called criminals and crooks unity and nothing less than that. A real Muslim do not steal from the poor and use that ill gotten means to spend lavishly on luxury goods, properties, sex and alcohol.

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  13. When DoJ commenced civil proceedings against those involved in siphoning money from 1MDB, PAS President said he does not accept that suit unless there are 4 witnesses.

    But now,after SR exposed that PAS received RM90m from Najib, he is filing a suit in UK courts.Does he have 4 witnesses? Even if he does,UK court is following British law and not Islamic law, so why the contradiction.

    Therefore, the most appropriate name to be given to PAS is party of satans.

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  14. UMNO & PAS unity is the unity of devils and satans. Imagine this country is ruled by these devils and satans. Currently we are seeing that this country is already a failed state and laws are being used to protect the criminals instead of the innocent.

    The Malays in UMNO & PAS had given the negative impression on Malays in Malaysia by being thieves, liars and criminals.ANd Malays will be seen as a weak race for generations to come as Malays in UMNO & PAS are protective of their leaders who had committed crimes.

    With the exposures on investigations and arrest all over the world for heist of the century via 1MDB, the Malaysian government and authorities are pretending to be stupid and ignorant, although in reality they are stupid and ignorant.

    Imagine if Riza Aziz is the stepson of Anwar instead and Jho Low is related to Guan Eng of DAP, all UMNO owned media will write only this story for their entire publication of 50 pages without any other news.TV3 suku will be showing news coverage for 24 hours a day and no other programs and even advertisement will be restricted. This is how despicable and immature of person chosen by lembus to govern this country. An anyone who consumes dedak is an immoral person knowing that the money are stolen from the poor who are struggling to even find a decent meal a day.

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