But apparently, the guy can't seems to do it.
As Rocky put it,
It's the Sultan who advises the MB, not the other way round, Khaled!
I had previously pleaded to PM DS Najib Razak to attend to matters in Johor, but not to the point of removing Khaled as MB.
You can read it at this previous posting,
Datuk Najib, now Terengganu settled, next should be Johor
Excerpts :
Please Datuk Najib, please stop the nonsense currently going on down there.
You had proven yourself capable of being brave for Terengganu. I am sure you can do the same for Johor.
I am sure support for BN in my home state could be restored to what it used to be if Najib could clean up Kota Iskandar from the crooks and empowers MB DS Mohd Khaled Nordin so that he can stand up and not be too cowed by others.
Really, Khaled is currently spineless when dealing with certain people.
Only Datuk Najib can give him the support so that he can be a true MB instead of being a mere budak suruhan.
Really, I am not asking for Datuk Najib to remove Khaled. I just want Datuk Najib to back him up so that he is not being bullied anymore.
Well, not anymore.
With the latest happenings in Johor, I now strongly feel that Khaled needs to be replaced with someone else who can carry out the Menteri Besar duties without any fear or favor.
Khaled is simply not cut out for the job. He had failed in his duties as a Johor MB.
In the current Johor crisis, he had failed to protect the rakyat's interests and also failed to protect his sultan from becoming a subject of ridicule.
Anyway, what had he done this past one year after he took over the post? Anything significant? Sorry Khaled, I can't think of any.
To make it worse, Khaled is surrounded by his boys who are behaving like pirates in Kota Iskandar.
They think that Johor is for them to carve out into their little domains just because their boss is the MB.
Anyway, why does an MB needs up to 18 special officers whose speciality are mostly about buggering for projects at the government agencies and GLCs?
These Khaled boys, along with those crooks who claimed to be the boys of the Sultan of Johor need to be stopped.
Datuk Najib needs to clean up this mess if Johor is to remain a BN's stronghold.
Bear in mind that 83 per cent of the Johorean Malays voted for BN in GE13 and stopped the State which was hit by the full force of the Chinese tsunami from falling into Pakatan's hand.
I am sorry for Khaled, but I see no other way, the guy has to go.
Najib must solve his household mess before trying to solve the nations' problem. Otherwise he is just like crab teaching the offspring's how to walk.
ReplyDeleteThis is good news to Pakatan, it make the BN increase their chance to lose in next election. Even in 'worst' case scenario, the non Malay can have a free hand in grabbing the properties in Johore so let's just sit and watch the show.
ReplyDeleteAre you expecting lembik tak ada telor najib tu address spineless problem of khaled?
ReplyDeleteCountry is beseged with problems because najib is lembik tak ada telor to b efirm in addrerssing problems.
The latest by Gani tu charge ISMA is another of his example. How could AG instruct police OCPD to get evidencce because he predetermined ISMA is guilty and has to be charged?
Cases invlving Lim Kit Siang, Nga Kor Meng, Ambiga, Wanita Gerakan Tan Lian Ho
Ngeh Koo Ham, Penang politicians, Ah long, Alvin Tan, Rayes, Tan Keng Liang,
Anthony Loke, Lim Lip Eng (DAP), many moore are left scot free by Gani Patail
Could it be that those named will refuse to roll over and be intimidated?
DeleteIn other words, it's "see you in court, baby".
And if the courts rule against the A-G......well, embarrassing, leh!
Begitu juga dengan ISMA. Jangan 'underestimated' mereka. Saya lihat peimimpin mereka juga terdiri daripada golongan mereka yang berpendidikan tinggi. 'See you in court' juga akan menjadi jawapan mereka kapada Gani Patail sekiranya cuba tunjuk lagak!.
DeleteSaya juga mengaharapkan ISMA menjadi kuat untuk menentang DAP & Co. Ini disebabkan UMNO sudah begitu lemah dan layu. Mana ada lagi suara suara lantang dan berani dari pihak UMNO untuk menentang terhadap isu isu biadap dan kurang ajar daripada Cinabeng DAP.
Dalam kepimpinan tertinggi UMNO mana ada lagi pemimpin yang berwibawa?. Semuanya lemah dan lesu. Mungkin KJ ada bakat tetapi jiwanya bukan jiwa Melayu! KJ sesuai dia berjuang dalam DAP.
Tunggulah, kalau UMNO kecundang. KJ lah antara pemimpin pertama UMNO yang akan menyeberang ke ''sebelah sana
Kita boleh lihat bagaimana mereka yang berpegang teguh kepada ajaran islam boleh mengalahkan musuh yng jauh lebih besar di timur tengah sekaqrang. Beberapa ribu pejuang ISIS boleh menghalau tentera kerajaan Iraq walaupun bilangan mereka mencecah puluhan ribu. Sekiranya ISMA dijalan yang benar kafir DAP bukanlah satu halangan. Tidak mudah tetapi dengan bantuan Allah, insyaallah boleh Berjaya.
DeleteWell Annie, couldn't agree more with you on this. As you said, the Hon. Menteri Besar failed to safeguard the DYMM Sultan Johor from being ridiculed and drag into mud. He should go, Period
ReplyDeleteIf the sultanate is not protected, it would be like the fall of Malay sultanate in melaka. Who is the real traitor if the sultanate is not protected.
DeleteAll exports of rock material to Singapore by sea and on land are free from levies. The amounts could be about as same amount as to the costs to renovate and maintain the palaces. Johor Government need not borrow from Federal Government if the levies are collected.
DeleteThe renovation contracts of the palaces are given to devolopers from China. Almost all lands alienated or sold to developers associated with the royalty are of freehold or grant in perpetuity. Requests for change of title type from the common people are being rejected.
Government officers are intimidated with threats of demotion, transfer or termination. The latest victim is the State Director of Lands and Mines / Pengarah Tanah dan Galian.
To bypass the laws restricting the exports of rock materials, exports of sands and rock materials are categorised as silica sands, sands to manufacture glass. Mana ada Singapore manufacture glass. Lorries carrying sands and rock material cross to Singapore daily amount to about 800 lorries per day.
Now the subject person is as rich as large corporation like YTL and Berjaya Group.
Rakyat are being pitched that all these are towards protecting malay interest in the state. Time will tell whether he is telling the truth.
DeleteAnon 20:55
DeleteThe Sultanate ,must protect themselves "first" before being protected .
The falls of Melaka Sultanate should be a good lesson , where few pendatang were trusted aids of the Sultan, and in the end they betrays him ,that lead to the fall of Melaka .
Melayu mudah lupa.
The sultanate exists to protect the Malay Tradition. Otherwise they have no reason to continue to exist. The rate it is going, it won't be long before they become history.
DeleteTT, you are a rear traitor to insult Malay royalty. No wonder melaka sultanate fall because of people like you.
Deletethe fall of the malay sultanate is not because they were insulted by the subjects but because they were misbehaving such that they not longer protecting the subject but abusing them instead. we are seeing many examples of such behavior right here today.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteCan't wait for DAP to create a "red belt" along southern Johor come GE14.
ReplyDeleteYou THink So?
ReplyDeleteHow can that be...He's Najib's favourite!
Propose next MB OF JOHORE.....Lee Guan Eng.
ReplyDeleteThen you'll know the true colours OFTHE so called investors in Iskandar.
Anything they do then, will be for the interest of Singapok......no Johore
Just like TOLONG ANJINGTERSEPIT.
Just wonder why UMNO and GOMEN Cannot learn from past mistakes.
Heh, heh - is that your imagination running wild?
Delete"Singapok" again? Really?
Don't you have anything better upon which to exercise your logic?
In any case, it's Singapore investments going into Johor. Not the other way around.
I wonder why.
Re. In any case, it's Singapore investments going into Johor. Not the other way around.
DeleteThere is nothing to be invested in Singapore frankly. They are just a service center in Asia with no natural resources and labour force to support them. The cost of investing in Singapore is very high, but still Khazanah and few others Malaysian GLC are already there. For instance, Khazanah own the largest Hospital chain in Singapore and the second largest healthcare provider in the world currently.
Re. I wonder why.
DeletePart 1
Why Singapore's Economy Is Heading For An Iceland-Style Meltdown
In 2007, Iceland was celebrated for attaining the world’s highest standard of living according to the U.N.’s annual Human Development Index report. In less than a generation, the tiny North Atlantic island had transformed from a traditional fishing and tourism-based economic backwater into a finance and banking powerhouse, rocketing the country’s wealth and living standards to enviable new heights. Sadly, Iceland’s economic boom was an illusion based on a reckless credit and asset bubble that led to a terrifying financial crisis when it popped in 2008.
It has been just five years since the Global Financial Crisis, and the world – in brazen defiance of the lessons of 2008 – is already back to blowing massive bubbles and naively praising the countries that are benefiting from these “fool’s gold” economic booms. The Southeast Asian island nation of Singapore is currently inflating one of the most egregious examples of these post-2009 bubbles, and is displaying parallels to Iceland’s bubble that are causing me to believe that its boom will end in a similar (but not necessarily identical) manner.
Like Iceland in its heyday, Singapore’s economic stability and vitality – on the surface at least – has made it the envy of the world at a time when most Western economies are languishing with feeble growth, and high rates of unemployment and poverty. Singapore’s booming finance and real estate-focused economy has earned it the moniker “The Switzerland of Asia”, and finance professionals from all over the world are flocking to work there to take refuge from the hard-hit financial sectors in their home countries. Singapore’s unemployment rate is a mere 1.8 percent even as the country’s red hot construction sector has been attracting overseas workers, and a growing number of wealthy citizens are hiring domestic helpers from neighboring countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. The ranks of Singapore’s wealthy are growing rapidly thanks to the country’s asset bubbles, which is helping to fuel a luxury consumption boom in everything from high-end apartments to exotic supercars.
Even though Singapore is no longer an emerging market nation, I consider its bubble economy to be part of the overall emerging markets bubble that I have been warning about due to its strategic role and location in Southeast Asia, which is also known as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). My recent reports on Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia show that the entire region is caught up in a massive bubble, and Singapore is benefiting from this bubble by acting as ASEAN’s financial center.
The emerging markets bubble began to inflate in 2009 after China launched a $586 billion stimulus plan to boost its economy after the Global Financial Crisis threatened the country’s economic growth. China’s stimulus plan aimed to drive economic growth with an ambitious debt-funded infrastructure and residential real estate construction boom that led to the building of countless empty and unused cities and other wasteful projects. The stimulus plan caused Chinese growth to surge, and sparked a global raw materials boom and eventual bubble that provided an economic windfall to commodities exporters such as Australia and emerging market nations at a time when the rest of the global economy was suffering very heavily. International investors soon took notice and piled into emerging market investments to reduce their exposure to investments in deeply indebted and troubled Western economies.
Part 2
DeleteExtremely low interest rates in the West and Japan, combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing or QE programs resulted in a $4 trillion torrent of speculative “hot money” that flowed into emerging market investments from 2009 to 2013. An international carry trade arose in which investors borrowed significant sums of capital at rock-bottom interest rates from the U.S. and Japan, and directed the proceeds into high-yielding emerging markets assets with the intention of profiting from the difference in interest rates or the spread.
The sudden surge of demand for EM investments led to a classic “too much money chasing too few goods” scenario, which inflated bubbles in those countries’ assets, especially in bonds, which led to record low borrowing costs for emerging market governments and corporations. These ultra-low interest rates have helped to finance government-driven infrastructure spending booms while inflating an unprecedented wave of dangerous credit and real estate bubbles in emerging nations across the globe.
Hot money inflows, combined with central bank policies that allow currency appreciation to temper inflation, have contributed to an approximate 22 percent increase in the value of the Singapore dollar against the U.S. dollar since the financial crisis:
Singapore Dollar Chart
Source: XE.com
Foreign direct investment (net inflows, current dollars) into Singapore immediately surged to new highs after the financial crisis:
Singapore FDI
Source: IndexMundi.com
The stimulative global monetary environment and resultant bond bubble have helped to push 10 year Singapore government bond yields to record lows since the financial crisis, though yields have nearly doubled in the past year after news of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE taper plan surfaced:Singapore Government Bond Yield
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Part 3
DeleteLike many countries that have experienced economy-wide bubbles and busts – including the U.S. from 2003 to 2007 – Singapore currently has a ballooning credit bubble that is helping to drive economic growth and create an illusion of prosperity. Ultra-low interest rates are the primary reason why credit bubbles inflate in the first place, and Singapore’s bubble is no exception to this pattern.
An idiosyncrasy of Singapore’s interest rate policy makes their low interest rate-fueled credit bubble particularly acute: Singapore’s benchmark interest rate, known as the Singapore interbank offered rate or SIBOR, is tied to the U.S. Fed Funds Rate for the purpose of minimizing large swings in the U.S. dollar-Singapore dollar exchange rate.
Unfortunately, there are extremely dangerous side-effects of Singapore’s interest rate policy ever since the U.S. Federal Reserve has pursued its zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP, after the financial crisis in 2008. Near zero interest rates, which are intended to boost depressed economies like the U.S.’, are much too low for fast-growing economies like Singapore’s (I have shown how ZIRP is even creating another bubble in the U.S.). The SIBOR is used as a benchmark for pricing numerous types of loans in Singapore, from mortgages to commercial loans, so its ultra low level since 2008 has been fueling explosive rates of credit growth.
The chart of the SIBOR interest rate shows that it has been held at all time lows of under one percent for an unprecedented period of time:
SIBOR
The chart of the U.S. Fed Funds Rate shows how closely it is tracked by the SIBOR:
united-states-interest-rate
It is no coincidence that Singapore’s private sector loan growth began to surge immediately after the SIBOR dropped below one percent, causing total outstanding private sector loans to rise by a worrisome 133 percent since 2010:
singapore-loans-to-private-sector
Singapore’s M3 money supply, a broad measure of total money and credit in the economy, has been growing at a very high rate as well:
singapore-money-supply-m3
This chart from Nomura shows that Singapore’s loan growth has far outpaced its nominal GDP growth in recent years, making for the worst credit-GDP growth gap in Asia:
Credit Growth
Low interest rates are helping to inflate a credit bubble in numerous sectors of the Singaporean economy, but the country’s household debt bubble is particularly alarming. Singapore’s ratio of household debt to gross domestic product recently hit approximately 75 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2010 and 45 percent in 2005. Singapore’s household debt has risen by 41 percent since 2010, while household income has increased by only 25 percent and wages by a paltry 15 percent in comparison.
Part 4
DeleteThis chart shows that Singapore’s household debt to GDP ratio is one of the highest in Asia:
Singapore Household Debt
Source: Denise Law, FT
As concerning as Singapore’s credit bubble is already, it may grow far worse in the coming years because there is a strong probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve – with Janet Yellen now at the helm – will maintain its zero interest rate policy until as late as 2017.
Singapore Has An Epic Residential Property Bubble
The growth of Singapore’s credit bubble is inextricably linked to the country’s soaring property bubble because Singaporeans are going into debt to invest in property or buy more expensive houses than they can afford, similar to Americans during the U.S. housing bubble of 2003 to 2007.
Singapore’s property prices have approximately doubled since 2004, and are up by 60 percent since 2009 alone:
Singapore-Housing-Bubble
Source: GlobalPropertyGuide.com
Singapore’s property bubble has inflated the average price of a new 1,000-square-foot condo to approximately $1 million to $1.2 million Singapore dollars ($799,000 to $965,638 U.S.), effectively pricing out many middle class and younger workers, while transferring wealth – at least until the bubble pops – to older and wealthier Singaporeans.
A 2013 study by The Economist magazine showed that Singapore has the world’s third most expensive residential property market on a price-to-rent basis, making it 57 percent overvalued versus its long-term average, behind only Canada and Hong Kong (which I consider to have property bubbles of their own). Singapore’s rental yields are miniscule at under 4 percent, and the country’s 25.38 average house price-to-income ratio confirms the overvaluation reading given by the price-to-rent ratio. In contrast, the U.S.’ average house price-to-income ratio is 2.16, while Germany’s ratio is 4.78, the U.K.’s ratio is 6.73, and Japan’s ratio is 6.99.
Singapore’s rapidly rising housing costs have resulted in an inflation problem in recent years, which is unsurprising considering how much the country’s money supply has risen. An increasing money supply leads to the dilution of a currency’s value, which manifests itself in the form of inflation or higher living costs. As a result, Singapore now ranks as one of the world’s ten most expensive cities.
Part 5
DeleteNaturally, both domestic and foreign property speculators have had a field day buying and selling properties as prices soared. The majority of Singapore property buyers are local citizens, while 7 percent of transactions in the third quarter of 2013 were made by foreigners, which is down from 17 percent in 2011. In 2013, 34 percent of foreign property-buyers in Singapore were from China, 32 percent were from Indonesia, and 13 percent were from Malaysia. All three of the aforementioned countries have dangerous economic bubbles that are creating false and temporary prosperity, which has helped to inflate Singapore’s property bubble in turn (see my reports on the bubbles in Indonesia and Malaysia for more information).
Property developers quickly mobilized to profit from the property bubble as prices soared, which is now resulting in a glut of properties. Singapore’s Urban Redevelopment Authority estimates that nearly 95,000 private units are expected to hit the market over the next five years, in addition to 25,000 to 27,000 public housing flats each year.
According to Barclays analyst Tricia Song, “Total housing supply could average 40,000 units per annum and peak at 47,000 in 2015 – significantly above the historical average annual supply of 12,300 units.” Song added, “Assuming occupier demand of 15,500 units of private housing per annum, we expect the private vacancy rate to rise from 5.6 percent currently to 9.9 percent in 2016.” Ms. Song further stated that Singapore’s rents and property prices have typically declined after vacancy rates hit 8 percent.
Pricey property prices have led to the increasing construction of small “shoebox” apartments with floor areas of 500 square feet or less, which have become a popular vehicle for property speculation. In some new housing developments, 50 percent to 80 percent of apartments are shoebox units.
The fuel for Singapore’s property bubble is provided by a growing mortgage bubble, which has greatly contributed to the rapid rise in household debt that was discussed earlier. Singapore’s mortgage rates – which are based on the SIBOR interest rate – are at all time lows, which is encouraging the country’s mortgage borrowing binge. Mortgage loan growth rose by 18 percent each year over the last three years, bringing total outstanding mortgages to 46 percent of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) from 35 percent. Nearly a third of Singapore’s mortgages are utilized for speculative property purchases rather than owner occupation, which is an indication of the level of speculative fervor in the country’s property market.
Even more worrisome is the fact that the “vast majority” (nearly 70 percent according to CIMB Research) of Singapore’s mortgages have floating interest rates, which will result in higher monthly mortgage payments when the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually raises interest rates, thereby causing the SIBOR to rise in tandem. Singapore’s mortgage market faces the risk of replicating the U.S. mortgage market’s crisis of 2007 and 2008, when adjustable rate mortgages or ARMs reset to higher interest rates after the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy.
DeleteAccording to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore’s central bank, 5 to 10 percent of borrowers may have over-extended themselves to buy property, as measured by borrowers whose total debt service payments account for more than 60 percent of their income. The MAS estimates that the proportion of over-extended borrowers could reach 10 to 15 percent if mortgage rates rise by 3 percentage points. A 2013 report showed that Singaporeans spend a large proportion of their income on housing, making it the 72nd worst out of 103 countries for this metric.
Singapore’s banking system faces a crisis when the country’s property bubble pops because its banks hold almost half of their credit portfolios in property-related loans, with residential mortgages accounting for nearly a third of their overall loan portfolios – an all-time high. While non-performing loans are at cyclical lows, this is par for the course in an abnormally low interest rate environment like the current one, and is not a reason for complacency and comfort; the risk is that non-performing loans will increase when interest rates eventually normalize.
The chart below shows which banks are the largest players in Singapore’s mortgage market, and therefore face significant risk when the mortgage and property bubble bursts:
mortgage market share
Residential property development companies such as CapitaLand Ltd., City Developments Ltd., and Keppel Land are also highly vulnerable to the popping of the property bubble, and will likely replicate the experience of U.S. homebuilders in 2007 and 2008.
Part 6
DeleteSingapore’s government has enacted various cooling measures to slow the residential property bubble’s growth, such as requiring foreign buyers to pay a 10 percent Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty, capping loan tenures at 35 years, and mandating more conservative loan-to-value (LTV) limits. While these cooling measures have slowed the property bubble’s growth to an extent, they do not address the bubble’s root cause: abnormally low interest rates. Furthermore, these measures do not change the fact that Singapore’s property bubble has already been inflated to economy threatening levels, nor do they help to deflate the existing bubble. The damage (to be realized in the future) has already been done and is “baked into the cake”; Singapore’s property bubble cooling measures are tantamount to putting a Band-Aid on a flesh wound.
Cheap Credit Is Fueling A Construction Bubble
Abnormally low interest rates often lead to construction booms and bubbles because construction is a capital-intensive economic activity that benefits from low borrowing costs. Anyone taking a quick glance at Singapore’s skyline in recent years would see numerous construction cranes towering across the city. Singapore’s construction boom has been the most significant contributor to the country’s economic growth since the Global Financial Crisis by far, as the chart below shows:
Singapore Construction Bubble
Total construction demand hit a record S$35.8 billion in 2013, and the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) of Singapore recently announced that total construction demand could reach S$31-S$38 billion in 2014, with nearly 60 percent of the demand coming from public sector projects. The BCA expects similar levels of construction demand in 2015 and 2016 as well. Residential construction, which has been boosted by the previously discussed property bubble, accounts for most of Singapore’s non-public sector construction demand. Construction activity was expected to rise 4.9 percent in 2013, after an 8.6 percent increase in 2012. Construction industry work permits rose to 306,500 in June 2013 from 180,000 at the end-2007, which was the peak of Singapore’s prior economic boom before the financial crisis hit.
Singapore’s construction boom has been driving an over 18 percent annual increase in total outstanding building and construction loans in recent years:
construction loans
Bank loans for building and construction, and mortgages surged to 79 percent of Singapore’s GDP, up from 62 percent in 2010.
According to BCA Chairman Mr Quek See Tiat, public sector construction demand will be driven largely by infrastructure projects such as “the Thomson MRT line, Eastern Region Line, North-South Expressway and the various healthcare infrastructural developments, as well as key commercial and institutional developments such as Project Jewel and Changi Airport Terminals 4 and 5.”
Singapore has been experiencing a surge in airport construction activity, including the building of a free movie theater, a butterfly garden, a children’s play areas, and a 300-meter-long shopping mall in Changi International Airport. A large bubble-shaped glass complex (symbolic of Singapore’s construction bubble?) will be built in the areas between the existing terminals, which will include additional space for travel facilities, more stores, gardens and a waterfall.
Part 7
DeleteAt a time of global crisis, opulent public construction projects – a common hallmark of a bubble economy – have become common in Singapore, such as the S$1.035 billion 103-acre Gardens by the Bay park that is part of the government’s plan to turn the country into a “City in a Garden.” Gardens by the Bay features eighteen biometric “Supertrees” that are 80 to 160 feet tall and cost three quarters of a million U.S. dollars each to build.
Singapore’s Marina Bay, which is located next to Gardens by the Bay, is a hotspot for public construction projects such as three new MRT rail lines that are expected to be completed this year, as well as six more more MRT stations by 2018 that are less than five minutes away from each other. In addition, numerous other amenities will be built such as a network of shaded or covered sidewalks for pedestrians, and a water taxi system that will provide an alternative means of transportation.
Singapore has also been experiencing a casino and resort building boom ever since casinos became legal in the country four years ago for the purpose of attracting wealthy high-rollers and vacationers from China. Singapore is on track to become the world’s second-biggest gambling market after the Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa were opened in 2010 at a cost of over $10 billion.
Singapore’s casino boom is another way that China’s economic bubble and false prosperity is spilling over into the country. The eventual popping of China’s unsustainable bubble will certainly put a damper on the desire and ability of Chinese high-rollers to splurge in Singapore’s casinos. Relying on and catering to wealthy Chinese in 2014 is equivalent to relying on wealthy Japanese during Japan’s bubble economy of the late-1980s before it popped and plunged the country into a two-decade long (and counting) economic stagnation.
Singapore’s Financial Sector Is An Unsustainable Bubble
In cheap credit-driven bubble economies, the financial sector is always one of the largest beneficiaries. As Singapore’s bubble economy inflated in the past half decade, its booming financial sector earned the country the nickname “The Switzerland of Asia.” Singapore’s financial services industry grew 163% between 2008 and 2012. After construction, financial services have been the second most important driver of Singapore’s economic growth in recent years (light green line):
Part 8
DeleteSingapore’s services sector, which is heavily weighted toward financial services, has been responsible for generating the majority of the country’s employment and wage growth in recent years. Finance professionals from all over the world have been clamoring to work in Singapore’s booming financial sector, which has contributed to the island’s population explosion that will be discussed in greater detail later in this report.
Singapore’s financial sector is now six times larger than its economy, with local and foreign banks holding assets worth S$2.1 trillion (US$1.7 trillion). The Singaporean financial sector’s assets under management (AUM) have increased at a 9 percent annual rate from 2007 to 2012, but surged 22 percent in 2012.
The primary reason for the country’s rapid AUM growth is its growing role as a banking hub in Asia, especially in booming Southeast Asia. A full 70 percent of assets managed in Singapore were invested in Asia in 2013, which is up from 60 percent in 2012. Rather than a reason for optimism, I view this fact as a reason for alarm and more proof that Singapore’s financial sector and overall economy are experiencing a bubble because Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia are all experiencing economic bubbles (including asset bubbles) of their own that are creating false prosperity in the region.
As Asian economies have bubbled up since the global financial crisis, Singapore developed a reputation as a safe-haven and tax-haven that is posing a threat to Switzerland’s dominance as a banking center. While Singapore is to be commended for its low tax rates and low corruption, its money management firms are naively investing their clients’ wealth in regions that have massive economic bubbles, and will be responsible for significant investment losses when the Chinese/emerging markets bubble truly pops.
As discussed early, Singapore’s banks are also exposed to the ultimate popping of the country’s property bubble because they hold almost half of their credit portfolios in local property-related loans, with residential mortgages accounting for nearly a third of their overall loan portfolios – a record high. Approximately 70 percent of Singapore’s mortgages have floating interest rates and almost a third of Singapore’s mortgages are used for speculative property purchases.
After three years of 18 percent annual mortgage loan growth, total outstanding mortgages rose from 35 percent of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 46 percent, which poses a significant threat to the country’s banking system. To make matters worse, bank loans for building and construction combined with total outstanding mortgages surged from 62 percent to 79 percent of Singapore’s GDP in the past three years.
Like U.S. and Icelandic banks during their countries’ housing bubbles of 2003 to 2007, Singapore’s banks are experiencing good times as the bubble inflates, but are heading for a crisis when interest rates eventually rise. Singapore’s government is limited in its ability to bail out its financial institutions due to its significant public debt, which is one of the world’s highest at over 110 percent of the city-state’s GDP – a figure that is worse than the U.S.’ 106 percent public debt to GDP ratio. While most of Singapore’s public debt is owed to its own citizens as part of a mandatory savings-funded pension and healthcare plan, it still impairs the government’s ability to backstop the country’s highly-leveraged financial system.
As one of the 25 financial centers that the IMF regards as systemically important, a financial crisis centered in Singapore would put the entire global financial system in jeopardy.
Part 9
DeleteSingapore’s Sovereign Wealth Funds Are At Risk
Singapore’s government runs two large sovereign wealth funds for the purpose of managing and investing its foreign reserves: Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, or GIC, and Temasek Holdings, which have U.S.$285 billion and U.S.$173.3 billion in assets under management respectively. GIC and Temasek Holdings’ assets under management have risen considerably in recent years as many Asian financial markets climbed to new heights. Singapore’s sovereign wealth funds invest heavily in Asia, with nearly three-quarters of Temasek’s portfolio invested in Asian equities. The growing bubbles in China and emerging markets (as well as other bubbles) are a major reason for the strong performance of Singapore’s sovereign wealth funds since the global financial crisis, which means that these funds are exposed to the eventual popping of these bubbles as well.
Singapore’s sovereign wealth funds experienced severe losses in the Crash of 2008: Temasek’s portfolio plunged by S$55 billion ($U.S. 43.4 billion) or about 40 percent by March 2009, while GIC lost S$59 billion ($U.S. 41.60 billion). Temasek and GIC were able to recoup their losses quickly, however, when the world began inflating a series of new bubbles in an attempt to grow its way out of its last bubble-induced crisis.
Singapore Has A Wealth Bubble
As Singapore’s economic and asset bubbles inflated in recent years, its citizens’ wealth has soared like Icelanders’ and Americans’ wealth in the mid-2000s. After rising 8.7 percent y-o-y by mid-2013, the country’s total wealth hit a record U.S. $1.1 trillion (S$1.37 trillion) or an average of U.S.$282,000 per adult. Over 183,000 or approximately 1 in every 30 Singaporeans is a now millionaire – a figure that roughly doubled from 2008 to 2012.
Singapore currently has the highest number of millionaires per capita in the entire world, and mainstream analysts – who are not aware of Singapore’s dangerous economic bubble – are predicting even more growth of the millionaire population in the next few years. Of course, the assumption that Singaporean citizens’ wealth will continue to grow at high rates requires further inflation of the country’s asset bubbles, to say nothing of the very real risk that these bubbles will pop and cause wealth to decline significantly.
Part 10
DeleteSingapore Has As Population Bubble
Singapore’s high cost of living and extremely competitive education system has helped to push birth rates down to one of the lowest in the developed world – 1.20 children per woman, which is well below the 2.1 children per woman replacement rate required to maintain the native population. Fearing a demographic crisis, Singapore’s government opened up the floodgates to immigrants, which caused the country’s population to grow by more than 1.2 million to a total of 5.3 million people in the past decade. Approximately 2 million people or just under 40 percent of Singapore’s current population are foreign residents.
Foreign workers in Singapore fall into two primary categories: semi-skilled or unskilled workers who commonly work in construction or domestic service, and highly-paid professionals who tend to work in the financial services sector.
According to the chart below, 21 percent of immigrants are S Pass and Employment Pass holders, who are members of the professional class, while 59 percent of immigrants are semi-skilled or unskilled workers:
Singapore Population Bubble
Source: Gov.sg
Despite a roughly 25 percent increase in Singapore’s population in the past decade, the country’s ultra-low unemployment rate of 1.8 percent means that many new jobs were created to employ the sudden influx of immigrants. Here’s where Singapore’s bubbles come into play: most of the new jobs that were created are in sectors that are experiencing bubble-driven growth, namely construction and financial services.
In mid-2013, there were 306,500 construction workers on work permits in Singapore, hailing from countries such as Bangladesh, China and Myanmar. The growth of Singapore’s domestic servant population – which includes maids, chauffeurs, and private cooks – is a byproduct of the country’s soaring wealth, which is due in large part to the inflating economic bubble.
Singapore’s population increase of the past decade is essentially a bubble in its own right because it requires a continuation of the past decade’s economic trends – from rapid financial services sector growth to high rates of construction activity – in order to keep the country’s foreign workers employed. The continuation of the past decade’s economic trends requires further inflation of Singapore’s asset and credit bubble, which is ultimately unsustainable with property prices and household debt at such high levels already, as well as the perpetuation of the current abnormal low interest rate environment.
Final Part
DeleteRather that addressing the sustainability of its large existing immigrant population, Singapore’s government published a white paper in 2013 that detailed a plan for increasing the country’s population to 6.9 million by 2030. Contrary to the Singapore government’s hopes and expectations, the city-state may actually see a decrease in population when the bubbles in financial services and construction finally pop, leading to the loss of many bubble-era jobs that were created in those sectors.
How Singapore’s Bubble Economy Will Pop
Singapore’s bubble will most likely pop when the bubbles in China and emerging markets pop and as global and local interest rates continue to rise, which are what inflated the country’s credit and asset bubble in the first place. It is important to be aware that Singapore’s bubble economy may continue inflating for several more years if the U.S. Fed Funds Rate and SIBOR continue to be held at such low levels. Also, while I compared Singapore’s bubble economy to Iceland’s bubble economy before its collapse, I am not implying that these two bubbles are exactly alike or that their crises will play out identically. My argument is that both countries had or have finance and real estate-heavy island economies that were seen as safe-havens while their bubbles inflated and created an illusion of economic vitality.
As I’ve been saying even before this summer’s EM panic, I expect the ultimate popping of the emerging markets bubble to cause another crisis that is similar (though not identical in every technical sense) to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and there is a strong chance that it will be even worse this time due to the fact that more countries are involved (Latin America, China, and Africa), and because the global economy is in a much weaker state now than it was during the booming late-1990s.
I will end this report with a relevant quote from economist Ludwig Von Mises:
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
P.S
Forbes for a long time has been the western Media-Darlimg of Singapore and who spoke highly of her. I WONDER WHY with the current change of heart.
Here is the source for reference.
DeleteWhy Singapore's Economy Is Heading For An Iceland-Style Meltdown
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/
Every civilization has its cycle. Are e seeing the end of the Lee dynasty cycle.
Deletehttp://www.tremeritus.com/2014/06/12/spore-best-cuckoo-bird-in-charade-of-self-glorification/
DeleteLol, your degree from uni is copy and paste. Like the west, they live to say bad about Malaysia mh370 and now Singapore.
DeleteRE. Lol, your degree from uni is copy and paste.
DeleteIs there such a degree called copy paste? When you write without a substance or knowledge of a subject, that is called "garbage" and "slandering" and many of you, Pakatan Cyber-trouper and Redbeanie, are good at that.
RE. they live to say bad about Malaysia mh370
They including you i.e. Pakatan Cyber-trouper and Redbeanie have been doing that, so what is the difference now?
Re. now Singapore
Please read the link that I have given and you can see many economic data that substantiated the analysis.
P.S
All of you are too lazy to read other sources other than Malaysiakini, The J-Star, The Malaysian Insider, Harakah etc, YANG SUKA MENFITNAH and you all will swallow them like HOLLY WATER FROM JERUSUBANG.
Please read The Real Sungapore Blog and Tremeritus Blog to read more about their current stage.
FAREWELL MY BELOVED HERO – MR LEE KUAN YEW
DeleteDear Mr Lee,
I am a native Singaporean in my fifties. I would like to thank you for your decades of dedication to Singapore, particularly in your younger days. Under your leadership, we developed Singapore and improved our standard of living to an enviable level. We trusted you and your party all these years believing that you have our interest at heart.
Before we part way, I would like you to know that despite many serious policy errors in the past I have continue to love and respect you. For examples,
Your stop at two policy permanently destroyed our Asian traditional family value that children are a blessing. Driving down the fertility rate to this low level. I forgive you.
Cruel and inhuman handling of your political opponents. We feel sad for them and particularly their families. I forgive you.
You allow your son to go into politics although he is not the best person. Since then Singapore rapidly declined and we are now the most unhappy people in the world. I forgive you.
You devise an education system that allows only 20% of Singaporean to be well educated but at the same time flooding our precious local universities with thousands of foreign students. I forgive you.
You transformed our economy from a vibrant economy to a state enterprise system (GLCs) thereby removing the entrepreneur spirit that our forefathers were well known for. I forgive you.
You support your son to build casinos despite your earlier pledge that you will never allow it. This degraded the character of Singapore forever. I forgive you.
You change our constitutional to allow GRC. Putting in question as to whether we are still a democratic country. I forgive you.
You unreasonably resisted public outcry demanding the audit of our national reserve, particularly GIC and Temasek Holding accounts. This could potentially destroy all that we have built. I forgive you.
You allow your son to quietly bring in hundreds of thousands of new citizens and PRs over the last few years. Causing under-employment among us and depressing our salaries. I forgive you.
However, your Parliamentary vote on the 8th February 2013 to drastically increase Singapore population further by bringing in another million or so of new citizens, PRs and foreigners is unforgivable. It will systematically and legally take away my native Singaporean birth right to enjoy Singapore and to pass it on to our children’s children. All our dreams have been shattered. This I cannot accept.
For the sake of my children’s future I will resist this invasion.
Farewell my beloved national hero this is where we part.
Ordinary Native Singaporean
http://therealsingapore.com/content/farewell-my-beloved-hero-%E2%80%93-mr-lee-kuan-yew
Lol, it just show your copy and paste uni level. You are saying thr real power is still lky snd not his son just as the real power of Malaysia is kutty and not jibby.
DeleteRe. Lol, it just show your copy and paste uni level
DeleteDo you have a problem with that? Write or share something that can benefit everyone in here for once. Pick a topic and let us discuss it.
Re. You are saying thr real power is still lky snd not his son
Se Habla Inglés? No?
Please reread what I have posted and tell me who wrote that? Please tell me what the author who is Singaporean citizen said about LKY and his son.
Re. just as the real power of Malaysia is kutty and not jibby.
Tun M and Datuk Seri Najib are not father and son. They are the PM of Malaysia of 23 different "era" . Tun M doesn't groom his son to be PM while he is still a PM, and none of his children are allowed to get involved in politics while he is still in power.
But LKY did. In fact while his son was appointed as PM, he still hold a Senior Minister post for a while until finally retired quite recently. LKY has a lot of influence during his son tenure as Senior Mnister, so it correct to say that he is the real power behind it. Just like Lim Kit Siang and Son and Karpal Singh and sons.
To prove my point about Lee Kuan Yew's high influence on his son as senior Minister, here is an article from BBC News.
DeleteSingapore's founding father Lee Kuan Yew marked his 80th birthday on Tuesday showing no sign of relaxing his family's grip on power.
Mr Lee's legacy is assured as the man who turned the island from a sleepy backwater into one of the world's wealthiest states.
But even in tightly controlled Singapore, eyebrows have been raised by his announcement at the weekend that he will stay on, despite his age, in his current post of "Senior Minister".
The statement has prompted questions about the Lee family's influence, especially since his son, 51-year-old Lee Hsien Loong, is due to take over as prime minister within the next year or two.
The elder Mr Lee, who became prime minister in 1959, relinquished the post to Goh Chok Tong in 1990.
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3112220.stm
P.S
Don't bring up the subject if you can't back it up with reference.
BTW where are all the Redbeanies, they used to throng this blog with their half baked comments like nobody business.
DeleteLol, you are real kachang putih, you have no evidence of red bean. You cut snd paste. You do not know how old is lky. Your cut and paste can put into musuem. He is not long going to be 100 years old. No wonder you are just a dumnoputra
Deleteanon 10:14
Deletebeing DAPig doesnt mean you automaticcally clever smart ass!!..kacang putih..your mother selling arr?
Of course dumnoputras are smarter in filming and sex film and saying four letter words about their mother, sisters, grandmother and girlfriends.
DeleteAnon 19:50
DeleteBeing descendent of COMFORT WOMEN you should be aware that Cinabeng like to JUAL NONOK as part of their core business, this is proven with the flourishing Rumah Urut in Pulau Pinang and Selangor. Many of them maybe your distance cousins and relatives from PRC. Even TAN SRI Chua Soi Lek was caught bonking a China Doll.
"Those Who Live a Glass House Should Not Cast the First Stone"
Re-posting here.
DeleteRe. Lol, you are real kachang putih,
Likwise, you are Kacang Merah @ Redbeanie
Re. you have no evidence of red bean.
Tony Pua (ka)
I command my Red Bean Army 红豆兵 to make UMNO and Utusan Malaysia the biggest bowl of Ice Kacang 红豆冰 now.
I hope our olive branch will be accepted and they will stop defaming these delicious Red Beans henceforth.
https://www.facebook.com/MPTonyPua/posts/10151632314634917
Re. You do not know how old is lky.
Lee Kuan Yew is going to be 91 years old in September 2014. Tun M is a year younger than LKY is, but Tun M looks much better than him.
Re. Your cut and paste can put into musuem.
Good then all of you can remember my wisdom and knowledge for a long time. Can generate money for tourism industry some more.
Re. He is not long going to be 100 years old.
ROTFL... Why? So that your daughter can marry him.
Re. No wonder you are just a dumnoputra
And you are NO Stephen Hawking either.
I don't think that Najib reads your blog or even knows about it. I don't think he would listen to you. You don't have the same influence as people like Rocky and he doesn't even listen to them.
ReplyDeleteDo you think that Najib actually reads your blog. Don't kid yourself.
ReplyDeleteAnon 19:56,
DeleteNajib tidak baca blog Annie, "is not a big deals"!
Yang penting rakyat biasa membacanya. In Shaa Allah lama kelamaan rakyat akan sedar dengan kelemahan Najib. Masa itu Najib akan mengalami penentangan rakyat! Akhir tersungkur dari takhta PM
Sekarang pun kesedaran untuk menolak Najib telah bermula.
Andaikata Najib baca blog Annie, adakah akan timbulkah kesedaran tentang kelemahannya, adakah Najib akan kata, "Oh aku begitu lemah, untuk berjuang untuk kepentingan alaf, ba,ta. Oleh itu, baiklah aku serahkan jawatan PM kepada yang berkelayakan dan berkebolehan."
JANGAN HARAPLAH!. Baik kesederan rakyat yang dibina supaya pemimpin yang lemah akan berjaya diketepikan!
ReplyDeleteHai ..Yaa a !, itu Najib a r'r , sutak hilang halapan lea aa . Lakyat atak kuasa ,kasi guna itu kuasa lor r'r , lagi senang .
Saya amat berharap Najib, Khaled dan lain pemimpin yang beragama Islam baca, faham dan cuba sedaya upaya akur kepada hadith ini.
ReplyDeleteHadith no. 203
Hadis Ma'qil bin Yasar r.a: Aku pernah mendengar Rasulullah s.a.w bersabda: Sesiapa yang ditaklifkan oleh Allah untuk memimpin rakyatnya lalu mati dalam keadaan menipu rakyat, nescaya Allah mengharamkan ke atasnya Syurga.
Malaysia will be a better place for all of us.
The Prophet (peace and blessings be upon him) said:
Delete"The example of the person who abides by Allah's commands and prohibitions in comparison to those who violate them is like the example of iindividuals who drew lots for their seats in a boat. Some of them got seats in the upper deck, and the others were placed in the lower decks.
When the people below needed water, they had to go to the upper deck to bring water and that troubled the others, so they said to themselves, "Let us make a hole here in the bottom deck of the ship to get water so we don't have to trouble those above us.
So, if the people in the upper deck left those below to do what they had suggested, then everyone on board would be destroyed, and only if they prevented them and helped them, both parties would be safe." (Al-Bukhari)
This understanding between individual and society of common responsibility for common interests is the basis for resisting social ills, and every method for achieving reform would remain fruitless unless it is accompanied by such an understanding. Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim.
Hai Annie ,
ReplyDeleteFor khaled to get lost it wont happen annie , first najib has to clear all pak doll idiot around him , especially dalam khazanah , kabinet dan konsultannya . Kemudian baru najib boleh fikir untuk memperbetulkan lain-lain kawasan . But do you think he has a gut and a balls to do so . I dont think so .Only he himself has the answer.Actually najib himself have to go first , kalau boleh diganti dengan orang yang tiada kiatan with all this nonsense . But it really tough.
https://m.facebook.com/stopIPPsaveTNB
ReplyDeleteJom ramai-ramai kita ke sini. Selamatkan melayu. Dedahkan petualang, tidak kira siapa dan kedudukannya.
Ramai rakyat teraniaya kerana kos hartanah melambung akibat kuntungan berlebihan oleh pemaju. Siapa yang akan tanggung dosa? Khaled? Tuan tanah? Pemaju? Speculator? Orang dalaman yang kontrol booking?
ReplyDeleteMasing-masing jawab sendiri nanti.
Teringat masa kerajaan izin warga asing dibenarkan miliki rumah baru harga RM500,000. Semua rumah baru di JB dalam lingkungan harga tu. Sekarang bila kjaan naikkan nilai syarat ke RM1,000,000 Sekarang semua rumah dijual pd harga pakej skali utk 2/3 lot atau terus jual satu block terus kepada syarikat asing dan mrmbiarkan mereka sendiri yg uruskan jual beli ikut suka harga mereka. Kjaan sebenarnya sudah cuba bantu kawal tapi masih GAGAL kerana projek dibawah kawalan negeri!
ReplyDelete