Pro-BN super blog Unspinners in its post
Majoriti Wan Azizah turun ... isu GST ke?
argued that BN actually did well in the just concluded Permatang Pauh by-election.
It quoted an analysis issued by Jasa (Special Affairs Department of the Ministry of Communication and Multimedia)
ANALISA PRK PERMATANG PAUH
Oleh Lokman Adam
PKR GAGAL DI PERMATANG PAUH!
1. Majoriti Yang DiPerolehi PKR Merosot 8.3% Berbanding PRU13, prestasi BN meningkat 2.42%. Buktinya :
JUMLAH KELUAR MENGUNDI PRU13
88.52% = 11,721 Maj
1% = 132.41 Maj
Sekiranya % sokongan PKR kekal sama seperti PRU13, PKR akan mendapat:
PERATUS KELUAR MENGUNDI 2015
73% = 9,666 Maj
Maj PKR 2015 = 8,857
PKR kehilangan 809 (-8.3%)
Sekiranya % sokongan BN kekal sama seperti PRU13, BN akan mendapat
73% = 20,921
Undi sebenar =21,428
Undi BN Bertambah = +507 (+2.42%)
BN bertambah undi 507 (+2.42%)
Based on the above analysis, it was suggested that BN should not worry despite the defeat in the Permatang Pauh by-election and that it should carry on the way it is now.
But honestly, it took me quite a while to understand that analysis...I think....
Probably that's because I'm not very good in mathematics.
That's also why I prefer simple analysis such as by Helen Ang on the outcome of the Rompin by-election which I quoted in my post,
Rompin warning bell
Okay, let me try to do my own simple analysis.
Please excuse me if it's not as canggih as the Jasa's analysis or even that of Helen Ang's.
As I said, my maths are quite lousy.
I just want to compare the basic results of the two by-elections.
Bear in mind that Permatang Pauh is PKR's stronghold while Rompin is BN's stronghold.
Turnout at both by-elections was reduced to about the same, at just about 70 per cent.
So, here they are:
Permatang Pauh: PKR's majority reduced by 2,864 from GE13
Rompin: BN's majority reduced by 6,219 from GE13
Okay, based on both results, my conclusion is that, BN now is in worse shape than Pakatan.
Reduced majority is common in any by-election due to the lower turn-out but the difference was, BN lost over 6,000 majority in its stronghold, while Pakatan lost less than 3,000 majority in its stronghold.
For me, it is simple, better to lose less than 3,000 than more than 6,000.
Do note that I'm not even bothered to go into the percentages which will make it even worse for BN. Tak mau complicated sangat pun ya juga.
So, if the BN generals think they are okay based on the Jasa's analysis of the Permatang Pauh by-election, then good luck to them.
If I'm them, I would be worried as the results of these two by-elections appeared to me as a clear warning of what may come in the next general election.
If I'm them, I will from now on try my best to win back the heart and mind of the people, especially the people who support BN but pissed off by the arrogance of certain leaders and their cronies.
If I'm them, I will try not to screw-up anymore and correct everything that were wrong or even perceived to be wrong by the people.
BN has less than three years to do all that. The next general election is not that far away from now.