GE15: An early look at Johor

As it was in past general elections, I'm having an early look at my home state Johor, which many see as a reflection of what will transpire at the national level.

I'm doing this based on what I gathered from my sources on the ground in Johor, whom I believe are quite reliable.

I myself has not been to Johor since the Tanjong Piai by-election in November, 2019.

Currently, I'm not well enough to make the trip there. Not sure yet whether I'll be well enough to drive long distance to be there for GE15 like I did the past two general elections. On top of that, I'm no longer a registered voter in Johor.

Well, let's go through each of the 26 parliamentary constituencies in the state;

P140 Segamat

The over 55,000 voters are 46 per cent Malays, 43 per cent Chinese and 10 per cent Indians. PH won the seat in 2018 with over 5,000 majority but its PKR MP later defected to Pribumi Bersatu then PBM, I think. PH may win here again but BN may spring a surprise.

P141 Sekijang

The over 45,000 voters are 59 per cent Malays, 36 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 1,200 but BN is likely to regain it in GE15.

P142 Labis

The over 40,000 voters are 38 per cent Malays, 45 per cent Chinese and almost 15 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate won the seat in 2018 by a majority of over 3,000 and likely to retain it in GE15.

P143 Pagoh

The over 51,000 voters are 66 per cent Malays, almost 30 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. PN's Muhyiddin won the seat under PH ticket in 2018 with a majority of over 6,900. BN has a chance to wrest the seat as a significant bulk of Muhyiddin's votes came from the local Chinese community, which may not likely support him anymore after he took out Pribumi Bersatu out of PH in 2020, causing the collapse of its government. 

P144 Ledang

The over 77,000 voters are almost 56 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and about 4.6 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate won the seat in 2018 with over 8,600 majority but BN stands a good chance of winning it back in GE15.

P145 Bakri

The almost 74,000 voters are 44 per cent Malays, over 53 per cent Chinese and 2 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate retained this DAP stronghold in 2018 with a majority of over 23,000. PH is almost certain to win here again.

P146 Muar

The almost 60,000 voters are over 66 per cent Malays, 31 per cent Chinese and just over 1 per cent Indians. Muda president Syed Saddiq won the seat on PH ticket with  a majority of almost 7,000. He may retain the seat if PH backs his new party but BN still have a good chance to win it too.

P147 Parit Sulong

The almost 60,000 voters are 78.5 per cent Malays, over 20 per cent Chinese and less than half per cent Indians. BN's Wanita Umno chief Noraini won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 6,000 and she is almost certain to retain it in GE15.

P148 Ayer Hitam

The over 46,000 voters are almost 58 per cent Malays, 38 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians. BN's MCA chief Ka Siong won the seat in 2018 by a majority of 303 votes but likely to increase it in GE15.

P149 Sri Gading

The over 52,000 voters are 65 per cent Malays, 33 per cent Chinese and about 1.5 per cent Indians. PH shockingly won in this once Umno stronghold with a majority of over 3,000 votes in 2018 but will likely lose it back to BN in GE15. 

P150 Batu Pahat

The over 98,000 voters are almost 56 per cent Malays, over 43 per cent Chinese and 1.3 per cent Indians. PH's then Pribumi Bersatu candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of almost 18,000. BN, however, has a good chance of winning the seat back as it was expected to field the popular ex-Rengit Umno assemblyman Ayub Jamil.

P151 Simpang Renggam

The almost 44,000 voters are almost 60 per cent Malays, 30 per cent Chinese and almost 9 per cent Indians. PH won the seat via Maszlee Malik in 2018 with a majority of over 3,000 but an Umno candidate may likely return it back to BN in GE15.

P152 Kluang

The almost 100,000 voters are almost 42 per cent Malays, 47.5 per cent Chinese and over 9 per cent Indians. PH's DAP candidate won the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 23,000 and almost certain to retain it in GE15.

P153 Semberong

The over 44,000 voters are 60 per cent Malays, 29 per cent Chinese and almost 9 per cent Indians. BN's Umno leader Hishammuddin retained his seat in 2018 with a majority of over 6,000 and likely continue to do so in GE15.

P154 Mersing

The over 48,000 voters are 81 per cent Malays, just over 14 per cent Chinese and 1.2 per cent Indians. BN retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 8,000. Sources told me BN will field former MB Khaled Nordin there in GE15. Kalau tak menang juga tak tau lah aku nak kata apa.

P155 Tenggara

The almost 45,000 voters are about 75 per cent Malays, 16 per cent Chinese and 6.6 per cent Indians. BN retained this Umno stronghold in 2018 with a majority of almost 6,000 and almost certain to do so again in GE15.

P156 Kota Tinggi

The almost 47,000 voters are about 88 per cent Malays, 9 per cent Chinese and 2 per cent Indians. BN's Halimah Sadique retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 14,000 and almost likely to do so again in GE15.

P157 Pengerang

The over 40,000 voters are almost 90 per cent Malays, 9 per cent Chinese and less than one per cent Indians. BN's Azalina retained the seat in 2018 with a majority of over 11,000 and likely to do so again in GE15.

P158 Tebrau

The over 123,000 voters are about 47 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and 11.5 per cent Indians. The PH's PKR candidate won in 2018 with a majority of almost 25,000 but later defected and now with PBM. PH has a good chance of regaining the seat in GE15 but so does BN if it fields the right candidate.

P159 Pasir Gudang

The over 124,000 voters are about 49 per cent Malays, 37 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. PH's PKR candidate defeated Khaled Nordin in 2018 with a shocking majority of  almost 25,000. PH  does have a chance of retaining the seat but since BN was rumoured to be planning of sending Khaled to Mersing and field a better candidate there, the outcome has became more uncertain.

P160 Johor Baru

The over 101,000 voters are 52.6 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and 5 per cent Indians. The PH's PKR candidate beat Umno's long time MP Shahrir in 2018 with a majority of almost 20,000. PH may retain the seat in GE15 but that could be foiled if BN fields a good candidate.

P161 Pulai

The over 106,000 voters are 49 per cent Malays, 39 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. PH's Amanah candidate Salahuddin Ayub defeated Umno's Nur Jazlan in 2018 with a majority of almost 29,000 votes. I heard BN has asked Nur Jazlan to contest there again despite the guy previously saying that he's not interested. It's indeed going to be tough, but knowing Jazlan, I believe he will give his best shot and may still has the chance to pull it off.

P162 Iskandar Puteri

The over 138,000 voters are about 36 per cent Malays, almost 50 per cent Chinese and over 12 per cent Indians. DAP's Kit Siang retained the seat for PH in 2018 with a majority of almost 50,000. PH is almost certain to retain the seat in GE15 no matter who DAP field to replace the retired Kit Siang.

P163 Kulai

The over 99,000 voters are 35 per cent Malays, over 54 per cent Chinese and over 10 per cent Indians. DAP candidate retained the seat for PH in 2018 with a majority of almost 34,000. PH is certain to yet again retain the seat in GE15.

P164 Pontian

The over 55,000 voters are over 68 per cent Malays, 30 per cent Chinese and just over one per cent Indians. Umno's Ahmad Maslan retained the seat for BN in 2018 with a majority of just 833 but BN is likely to improve that in GE15.

P165 Tanjung Piai

The over 53,000 voters are almost 57 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and just over one per cent Indians. PH won the seat in 2018 with a majority of 524 but was later thrashed by BN at the by-election there over a year later with a majority of over 15,000. There are no reason things will change there in GE15.

Okay, the numbers of voters I used here were based on that of general election in 2018 and they would definitely be higher for GE15.

However, since the percentages would rightly remain more or less the same, I believe my projection of the overall picture should relatively be accurate.

Some may say there are other factors such as young voters and such, but I still believe the percentages wouldn't change by much. Some young voters will be voting for PH but others, likely an equal number of them may vote for BN too.

Also to be noted was that in 2018, the percentage of voters turnout was over 80 per cent throughout Johor with the exception of Mersing which recorded  79.5 per cent. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout percentage decreases to just about 70 per cent in GE15. 

After all, many people are now fed up with politics, especially after the disappointing performance of the Pakatan administration when they came to power in 2018.

Otherwise, Pakatan wouldn't lose that badly in all those by-elections and state elections since that year.

Final conclusion - BN has 14 seats that it will most likely win, PH has five while another seven are too close to call at this moment.

The 14 seats BN should by right win are Sekijang, Pagoh, Parit Sulong, Ayer Hitam, Sri Gading, Batu Pahat, Simpang Renggam, Semberong, Mersing, Kota Tinggi, Tenggara, Pengerang, Pontian and Tanjung Piai.

PH's sure win seats are all DAP's at Labis, Bakri, Kluang, Iskandar Putri and Kulai.

The 50-50 seats, which could be won either by PH or BN are Segamat, Ledang, Muar, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Pulai and Johor Baru.

Yup, I believe it's going to be actually a straight fight between BN and PH in Johor.

PN and the mosquito parties will be wiped out there.