Padang Serai and Tioman: Most Malays don't seem to like the PH-BN union

The outcome of polling for the Padang Serai parliamentary seat in Kedah and Tioman state seat in Pahang indicated that most Malays are not very enthusiasticly supportive of the so-called PH-BN unity government. 

Padang Serai, which was won by PKR over the last three general elections was yesterday taken over by Perikatan with a more than convincing majority while the BN candidate, who have hold the Tioman seat also for the past three terms saw his majority reduced by more than half from that he won in 2018.

In Padang Serai, PN's Azman Nasrudin received 51,637 or 56.49 per cent of the votes to beat PH's Mohamad Sofee Razak, who received 35,377 or 38.70 per cent of the votes.

The constituents in Padang Serai are 62.34 per cent Malays, 19.30 per cent Indians, 17.64 per cent Chinese, and less than one per cent of other ethnicities.

Let's say PH got all the non-Malay votes, that's 37.94 per cent from the total votes. After all, over 90 per cent of non-Malays voted for PH in the recently concluded GE15.

That nonetheless means the PH candidate got only about one per cent from the 62.34 per cent Malay votes.

Of course the voters turn out was 68.95 per cent, but still the racial percentage should be about the same as the total number of eligible voters. 

Most glaringly, PKR's winner candidates for the constituency in the past three general elections were Indians while for this one, the guy they put there is a Malay.

That suggests the Malays in Padang Serai are this time quite united to give the seat to PN. 

Also should be noted that almost 3,000 voters still voted for BN despite its Indian candidate's announcement that he had pulled out of the race in support of the PH candidate.

These voters I believe are BN hardcore supporters who couldn't make themselves give their votes to either PN or PH. They are probably Umno rebels who now hate the party's leadership.

The situation looks the same in Tioman where the constituents are almost 90 per cent Malays.

BN managed to cling on to the seat but only barely.

Its candidate Johari Hussain won by a majority of only 573 compared to 1,280 in 2018.

PN has definitely made its inroad on the island as well as other parts of Pahang.

MB Rosdy bravely said BN's win in Tioman means the people (particularly the Malays) have accepted the PH-BN union, but I think he was saying that just to make himself feels good more than anything else.

Deep in his heart, I believe, Rosdy must be saying "Shit, something needs to be done or otherwise we are going to lose the whole state in the next election".

I honestly don't know what Umno could do to stop the PN's advances, particularly among the Malays.

Talks among Umno people indicated that things will not change.

Zahid, after all has 130 division chiefs in his pocket.

Now that he's DPM, there's more reason to believe that he will stay as Umno president all the way to the next general election.

And so would those division chiefs in his pocket.

Therefore, I expect no change in Umno despite all the indications that Malays are switching to Pas and Bersatu.

I expect things would be worse for Umno if Anwar's government fails to handle the coming recession, causing the rakyat, particularly Malays to suffer more than ever.

Even now, the Malays appear to be rejecting the current government, what's more if they have to endure more hardship over the next five years.