Cameron Highlands, BN cannot, Pakatan can

This is a rather weird story by Bernama,

Wan Azizah admits PH chances 
in Cameron Highlands by-election slim

First this is in paragraph two, which more or less explains the headline;

The Deputy Prime Minister also said the by-election would be a tough fight as the opposition (BN) had fielded an Orang Asli person as its candidate.

Then there's this one in paragraph six, which made the story all confusing;

Asked about Manogaran winning the seat, Wan Azizah said his chances were good because of the change in government at the federal level. 

It's either Bernama was not sure what to write or Dr Wan Azizah was not sure what to say.

Slim and good chances are not the same, you know.

Mind you, Dr Wan Azizah is our DPM.

Well, the story also highlighted several other things about the ongoing campaign in Cameron Highlands,

Paragraph seven;

Asked if disciplinary action would be taken against PKR Senator Bob Manolan Mohd following claims that he allegedly threatened a group of Orang Asli village headmen in Cameron Highlands recently, Dr Wan Azizah who is also Chairman of the PKR Advisory Council said she had spoken to Bob Manolan about it and he said that was not what he meant.

- Hmmm, threatened only....lucky the Orang Asli headmen are not firemen.

Paragraph nine;

When asked to comment on photos of a woman wearing a PH t-shirt who was seen giving out money in Cameron Highlands, the Deputy Prime Minister urged the reporter concerned to check the authenticity of the photographs and the claims.

- Hmmmm, I agree. This is like the video of her husband last time. Need to check the authenticity. Maybe the woman giving money got bigger tummy.

Dr Wan Azizah also said this in the last paragraph,

“One of the outcomes of a positive mind is the ability to sieve through information. There is a lot of false information on the social media. We should learn from the May 13 incident and we do not want a repeat of it,” she said. 

I think she sounds quite a bit like an Umno leader before the GE14. Of course, if she's an Umno leader, she'll be accused of being a racist trying to scare people with May 13.

Anyway, this Cameron Highland by-election is interesting unlike the previous ones since Pakatan won the GE14.

The others were Pakatan seats, so no problem there for them.

As we all know, in a by-election, the incumbent usually wins. As far as I can remember, there were only three by-elections where the outcome didn't favour the incumbents; Lunas 2000, Kuala Terengganu 2009 and Teluk Intan 2014.

The Cameron Highlands by-election is also extra interesting because it came about when the BN guy who won it in GE14 was ruled to have bribed some Orang Asli to vote for him.

So, in a sense Pakatan was supposed to have an advantage there as they have been campaigning on the anti-corruption platform.

But of course now, there were allegations that Pakatan was doing the same thing when a photo of a Pakatan official giving money to some Orang Asli became viral the other day as pointed in the story above.

While Dr Wan Azizah had asked reporters to check on the authenticity of the photo, other had said Pakatan was just giving out "duit minyak" to campaign workers.

Duit minyak, duit kopi....whatever.

Anyway, I'm quite pleased that BN has decided to field an Orang Asli candidate who is not even a member of Umno or MIC or MCA (seriously, I'm not sure if MCA is still with BN).

Ramli Mohd Noor is a retired senior police officer with the rank of Assistant Commissioner of Police (ACP); who is a local Orang Asli of Semai descent.

That must be quite a shock for some because many people thought all Orang Asli in this country are uneducated and backward because they were being oppressed by the previous BN government.

Well, I hope Ramli will win so that the Orang Asli community will have a voice of their own in Parliament.

I do wonder why Pakatan didn't field an Orang Asli candidate too, considering that the community is quite big in Cameron Highlands.

Nonetheless, I think BN shouldn't campaign too hard on the fact that they fielded an Orang Asli candidate, because Pakatan people may accuse them of being racists.

Then if Ramli actually wins, the Orang Asli community may ends up being accused of racism for voting one of their own.

We don't want our Orang Asli be labelled as racists, don't we?

Whatever it is, I think Pakatan still have the advantage to win.

The Cameron Highlands electorate breakdown are Malay 33.5%; Chinese 29.48%; Indian 14.91%; Orang Asli (Peninsular Malaysia) 21.56%; Bumiputera Sabah 0.12%; Bumiputera Sarawak 0.06%; Others 0.37%. 

Looking at that and back at the GE14 results, I think DAP's Manogaran probably already have up to  44.39 per cent of the votes in his bag already.

He just needs a bit more votes from the Malays and Orang Asli community to win.

Furthermore, Pakatan can give out "duit minyak" this time.

Yes, BN cannot, Pakatan can.