This is my short WhatsApp conversation with a foreigner friend when they dissolved the parliament that day,
My friend is a keen observer of Malaysian politics due to his business interests here.
The guy is totally objective in his assessments.
And yes, both of us agreed that BN will likely win this general election.
I said the same at my school alumni WhatsApp group, which is totally dominated by Pakatan supporters.
Surprisingly, none of them tried to dispute me.
I just politely told them to get real.
Despite all the noises they made, they have to admit that the fight will largely be confined only in the West coast of the Peninsular.
BN is still strong in the East coast and almost totally dominant in Sabah and Sarawak.
I'm quite sure BN will have not much problem in Pahang and Terengganu where Pakatan's presence is rather limited. It may even wrest Kelantan from the weakened Pas.
Pakatan's sure bet is actually only Penang, Selangor and maybe Kedah.
Okay, they will also win most of the Federal Territories parliamentary seats in the Klang Valley.
But that's about it.
Yes, the fight will be intense in Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor but realistically we have to admit that BN still have the edge over Pakatan in those states.
Well, unless Pakatan can capture ALL these four states, which I highly doubt, then BN will win.
Seriously, I can't see it any other way.
All that despite the issues being highlighted by Pakatan.
So, that's my thought of GE14 for now.
But then again, I'm making this assessment without going on the ground yet.
I'm a totally armchair observer for now.
Still need to work to earn a living.
No dedak for me, okay.
Well, I'm hoping to get some time off from work soon to get on the ground before polling day.
The least I hope to do is to go around my home state Johor and see for myself how things are,
Then only I can be really sure about what I write.
Who knows, maybe I'm wrong.
See lah how.