My friend is a keen observer of Malaysian politics due to his business interests here.
The guy is totally objective in his assessments.
And yes, both of us agreed that BN will likely win this general election.
I said the same at my school alumni WhatsApp group, which is totally dominated by Pakatan supporters.
Surprisingly, none of them tried to dispute me.
I just politely told them to get real.
Despite all the noises they made, they have to admit that the fight will largely be confined only in the West coast of the Peninsular.
BN is still strong in the East coast and almost totally dominant in Sabah and Sarawak.
I'm quite sure BN will have not much problem in Pahang and Terengganu where Pakatan's presence is rather limited. It may even wrest Kelantan from the weakened Pas.
Pakatan's sure bet is actually only Penang, Selangor and maybe Kedah.
Okay, they will also win most of the Federal Territories parliamentary seats in the Klang Valley.
But that's about it.
Yes, the fight will be intense in Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor but realistically we have to admit that BN still have the edge over Pakatan in those states.
Well, unless Pakatan can capture ALL these four states, which I highly doubt, then BN will win.
Seriously, I can't see it any other way.
All that despite the issues being highlighted by Pakatan.
So, that's my thought of GE14 for now.
But then again, I'm making this assessment without going on the ground yet.
I'm a totally armchair observer for now.
Still need to work to earn a living.
No dedak for me, okay.
Well, I'm hoping to get some time off from work soon to get on the ground before polling day.
The least I hope to do is to go around my home state Johor and see for myself how things are,
Then only I can be really sure about what I write.
Who knows, maybe I'm wrong.
See lah how.
Annie,
ReplyDeleteAll I have to say is :-
16.5%
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/just-16.5pc-of-votes-needed-to-win-polls-now-bersih-2.0-claims
Gladiator
Talk about gerrymandering to the max! 16.5%???...
DeleteGo to Hell Zahid hamidi
DeleteWishfully you are wrong.
ReplyDeleteI thought, even with the baggage of 1MDB-Jho low's scandal, BN and UMNO-Najib will be winning GE14 with a 2/3 majority?
ReplyDeleteMalas nak balik undi..
ReplyDeleteMungkin aku minta KB tolong pangkah bagi pihak..
BN no problem boleh menang senang²..
I hope u are not serious. Why listen to Annie. She said herself she's just an armchair observer.
Deletein my multi racial whatsapp group (some working in govt or GLCs), 100% supported toppling BN (BN will lose)...
ReplyDelete
Deletehow many people in that whatsapp group ? 4 ??
one is you...one is your indian friend....one is your chinese neighbour....and one is your malay schoolmate friend = (100% multi racial whatsapp group)
How u know is 4 so smart aleck & why shud i reveal encrypted meh wakakaka
DeleteAnon 1741
DeleteYou really gave me a good laugh.hahaha
Prof Kangkung
go 4real rnd
ReplyDeleteundilah BN macam undilah jho low kesian...
ReplyDeleteI would rather die than voting that twin fat piece of trash
DeleteMost BN bloggers perdict BN will win, hands up!!!
ReplyDelete'Another Brick in the wall' is so confident that he
perdicts THE WALL STREET IS ALREADY
JUMPING WITH GLEE PERDICTING UMNOBN 100% WIN!!!!
So, let it be.
The more confident, the less they will harsh
HARAPAN's candidates especially Tun Det.
My perdiction also BN will win hands up!!!
Dah, BN tak paya berkempen lagi atau pasang
bendera all over the place.
Ini bukan tanda-tanda YAKIN BOLEH MENANG.
This shows desperation.
I would rarher HARAPAN tak payah letak flag.
Biar BN's flag penuh satu Malaysis.
Biar mereka syok sendiri....hehehe
cikminah
ReplyDeleteBN will win? I don't know, but the sentiment on the ground seems to be otherwise. And I am not not talking about urban or semi-urban folks here.
And hey, have you heard that in a certain state, the SS (state secretary) has allegedly set up a special operations room to monitor government servants during the entirety of the elections. They have tasked one official to monitor every 20-50 government servants/voters. Never happened before. If that allegation is true, then it could taken as a desperate move on someone's part. Can anyone out there confirm this?
Bodoh punya kerja, saya kakitangan kerajaan dan saya tak akan pergi ceramah parti pembangkang. Jadi macam mana nak monitor siapa saya pangkah nanti bila saya di tempat mengundi, adakah akan ada orang ditepi saya untuk mengetahui parti mana yang saya pangkah.
DeleteBodoh punya kerja.
Monitor my foot!!!!!!!!!!
Delete17.25, we both know that it is an exercise in futility, but with the present government, absurdity and stupidity seem boundless.
Idiocy
DeleteYou can’t monitor someone having a business in toilets
A really fools errand
its better for bn to win than pakatan
ReplyDeletebarisan = (original)
pakatan = (all kena goreng and kena pecat from barisan)
Barisan today is not the Barisan before
DeleteIt has regressed to a monkey show party
Anonymous @ 12 April 2018 at 10:07,
ReplyDelete//in my multi racial whatsapp group (some working in govt or GLCs), 100% supported toppling BN (BN will lose)//
As you can see from the following article, BN only needs 16.5% of the popular vote to win a simple majority.
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/just-16.5pc-of-votes-needed-to-win-polls-now-bersih-2.0-claims
Now, there are approx. 13,500,000 registered voters for GE14.
16.5% of registered voters means only about 2,300,000 voters.
So, unless your Whatsapp group contains 11,200,001 people, then your group's 100% support for Pakatan is something BN is not too worried about. :)
BTW, even if your Whatsapp group did have 11,200,001 people, can ALL of them find the time to balik kampung to vote in the middle of the week?
Gladiator
Most of them will vote whether urban or rural area cause they all keen to topple corrupted BN OK!!!
DeleteMind you they are not Harapan members or political macais all are ordinary people HARAPAN for a better Msia...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous @ 12 April 2018 at 12:48,
//its better for bn to win than pakatan//
"Better" is a relative term, isn't it? :)
If you think it is "better" for a government to abuse power, to discriminate, to divide the populace along racial and religious grounds, to con the rakyat into accepting a "pig in a poke", etc etc, then that is your prerogative.
Gladiator
Annie,
ReplyDeleteYou believe that BN will win PRU14 because:
a. Your foreigner (Singaporean?) friend, who has business in Malaysia, a very objective fella, a keen observer of Malaysian politics, had told you so;
b. Your school alumni WhatsApp group, comprising of middle-aged people, totally Pakatan dominated (which means, you are also a Pakatoon), did not dispute you when you told them 'to get real';
c. The same WhatsApp group admitted that the fight shall be in the West Coast of West Malaysia, and as for East Malaysia BN had already won.
Regarding a., Singaporeans are fed with information by their Government, and their Government have every reason to retain Najib. So for a Singaporean to formulate an opinion that Najib will be a winner is basically in the interest of the Singapore Government.
They can project a winner-image on Najib's face, but eventually the votes shall come from Malaysians.
But if your friend is a Mongol, or Indonesian, or Thai, or Australian, or Swiss, or PRC (especially PRC, except may be their past and present Ambassador), they would be puzzled if there is even a single Malaysian who would vote for Najib.
Regarding b., like you said "I just politely told them to get real" and then none in the group disputed you and you felt 'surprise'. When you are polite, none would dispute you even if they may want to, and there's no need to be surprised.
Regarding c., I supposed that your alumni group must be primarily Johoreans or staying in Johor / Semenanjung, because you were in Kluang. Again, like your Singaporean friend, their opinion were, at best, mere conjecture because they are not East Malaysian.
My friend is not a Singaporean and my alumni are from all over the country because I studied at a residential boarding school. Thank you.
Delete"All that despite the issues being highlighted by Pakatan."
ReplyDeleteNot the point.
The main factor will be the huge gerrymandering carried out by the KBU UMNO at the ROS.
We now have among the most unequal boundaries in the world - yes, look it up.
This really langgar our Constitution.
All so a fat, greedy hippo can feast on our public money for the next 5 years.
That's what it all comes down to.
i am not going to vote this time so i dont give a shit who wins...
ReplyDeleteYou have a power and not using is
DeleteI don’t mind BN wins 221 seats and Najib lost in Pekan.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteLike it or not , I have to agreed with you Annie ,that the reality which everybody could see that, all are well prepared for BN to win this election .
Malay vote will be the diciding factor,but allas Melayu mudah lupa .
Then i discussed america presidential election with my american fren. Both of us concluded clinton will win but both of us were so wrong wakakaka
ReplyDeletesorry annie actually whatsapp is destroying BN (so much negative articles on BN, MO1, jho low, hippo, etc, etc, etc) & whatsapp groups can be blocked by that keruak BN will lose...for now
ReplyDeletecan = cant*
DeleteAnonymous @ 12 April 2018 at 17:21,
ReplyDelete//but eventually the votes shall come from Malaysians.//
Hahahahah!!
What a wonderful and refreshing view - naive and innocent perhaps, but nevertheless, wonderful and refreshing.
You are, of cos, 1000% correct - "the votes shall come from Malaysians" but you seem to not have noticed that only 16.5% of those Malaysians matter.
Yes, it is great that Teresa Kok can win Seputeh by a majority of 50,000 votes, right?
Or that Pakatan can blow away BN in Kapar.
But have you noticed how many voters there are in, say, Putrajaya? Igan? Lawas?
Oh, please don't think I am clever. I am not.
Check out this link and have a little think for yourself.
BTW, most of those seat boundaries have since changed for GE14, so even more seats will favour BN, OK?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Malaysian_electoral_districts
Yes, "the votes shall come from Malaysians" - 16.5% of them.
I hope Pakatan can successfully counter that 16.5%, otherwise....
//mere conjecture because they are not East Malaysian.//
Are you East Malaysian?
If you are, do you seriously think Pakatan has a chance in Sarawak?
Those morons there in Sarawak PKR and Sarawak DAP just love to help BN win every state and federal election every time by sabotaging each other's efforts, by refusing to work together, by bickering about seats, by stabbing each other in the back, etc etc.
Surely you must know that about Sarawak - if you are an East Malaysian.
Sabah?
Aaah, Sabah is a curious case.
Warisan could surprise everybody. :)
But then, I am just a dumb guy from Semananjung, what would I know about Sabah.
Gladiator
All DAP heavywights will meet their Waterloo of they dare to go to Johor.
ReplyDeleteProf Kangkung
Says who
DeleteBN has much chance as Hilary Clinton did.
ReplyDeletePakatan 125 seats:
PKR 35
DAP 40
PPBM 25
Amanah 15
Others 10
Hip hip hooray!!!
Don't bother to dispute.
I'll be back after 9 April.
Meh..not interested to debate. Juz wait for the day, vote based on your conscience, and wait for the result.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous @ 13 April 2018 at 11:39,
ReplyDelete//DAP 40//
Waaah lan ay tau!!
You are not just good, you are fucking good.
DAP to win 40 sests, eh?
Fucking great, mate!!
Eeeerrr... just one small little itsy bitsy teeny weeny question.
From what I have read, DAP is o BM ly contesting 35 seats.
What kind of magic are you using to get 40 seats out of 35 seats??
Gladiator
Gladiator
DeleteEducate yourself before commenting.
DAP contesting 35 seats in Semenanjung excluding EM.
2018 survey organised by UK based YOUGOV for the most admired man in
ReplyDeleteMalaysia
The title goes to TUN DR MAHATHIR
Fadzireen
ReplyDeleteBN lagi , AIYaaa aa !, apa macam maa aa , mati loo oo ini macam ,mau tunggu lagi lima tahun lea aa ,balu lapat mulah punya balang ,itu plogram "sentuhan Rakyat" ,tatak boilh tahan maa aa.
All sorts of predictions are being bandied around. The sample size of the many groups carrying out the surveys are so small, so tell me how can they be representative of the population?
ReplyDeleteSo who will win? I checked the alignment of the planets with the stars and moon and it is most favourable for PH.
I receive a Wassp from BLOOMBERG saying BN will win
ReplyDeleteand Ekonomi will bloom like the red-red rose under
Najib's administration.
The wassap is from an Indon Minah with Indonesia number.
Bloomberg or Broomberg, Cik Minah? 😅
DeleteEntah, aku tak baca pun terus delete
DeleteI observe that in ge12, ge13 before
DeleteThat when an election was near, this piece of shit bloomberg article and lots of other european news says UMNO will win
It really boils my blood when this kind of article was released
BN UMNO hanya Mampu berjanji sahaja
ReplyDeleteToday promise tomorrow broken
Paham tak otak biol babi?
Siapa kata orang FELDA IS NAJIB'S PERMENENT ASSET...??
ReplyDeleteMasukblog celah-celah gelegar. Tengok gambar orang Felda
dari Bukit Tangga, Kayu Hitam, Perlis datang mendengar ceramah PH semalam
Sakit kepala pulak la najib tengok gambar Tun M dengan ribuan rakyat Felda Bukit Tangga semalam. Kehadiran yang tidak terjangka ribuan rakyat felda Bukit TanggaBukit Kayu Hitam semalam menafikan sama sekali fitnah tv3 suku bahawa penduduk Felda masih setia bersama dengan kepimpinan al Najib.
Sebenarnya rakyat Felda juga telah bangkit bersama dengan gelombang kebangkitan rakyat. Mereka mahu berubah. Mereka tahu, sudah sekian lama mereka ditipu di bawah kepimpinan najib. Rakyat felda bangkit mahu berubah untuk membina semula negara dan Felda bersama dengan perjuangan Pakatan Harapan pimpinan Tun Dr Mahathir. Semua yang hadir semalam pun turut kehairanan, dari celah pelusuk manakah rakyat yang muncul. Mungkinkah juga yang turun dari langit seperti yang didakwa oleh so called ust pas."
Kempen pacak bendera dan ceramah dari rumah ke rumah
is already out of date. Sekarang ceramah dari WASSAP
KE WASSAP.............HAHAHA
With the playing field being sooooo lopsided how to lose? What did The Economist say?
ReplyDeleteThe momentum is irreversible. I would argue that the demographic changes and the evolution of information flow make this so. If not, GE14, it will be GE 15 or GE16.
ReplyDeleteUMNO's power structure and mentality can't evolve with the time. Sooner or later it will fall.
The 1st paragraph of the Romance of The Three Kingdoms goes like this: "話說天下大勢，分久必合，合久必分", loosely translates as "It is a general truism of this world that anything long divided will surely unite, and anything long united will surely divide."
And when you add corruption into what UMNO is all about, it is even more difficult to reverse the inevitable. The day will come when it is no longer bangsa and agama but the people of Malaysia versus UMNO. Sounds cliche but there's some truth to it.
If UMNO wins GE14, there will be violence (I am not advocating that, I am simply saying that will happen), maybe not right away, but it will come in time. Make no mistakes that this GE will be the dirtiest ever fought. And UMNO/BN is determined to win with whatever means necessary. When you can't have peaceful transition, then it will be the other way around. History around the world are full of those examples.
Having said that, it won't be coming from the Pendatang. We have learned our lessons, we will be watching from the sideline. Our Malay friends won't need prompting from us to bring down the crooks.
The world is watching, US/China/ Singapore/Indonesia/India/EU are certainly concerned. Malaysia's geopolitical importance (particularly in the context of the South China Sea) is undeniable. And no one wants chaos in this country.
So the bastards in BN better watch what they are doing if they lose. And yes, it is possible for PH to win.
Prophecy over Malaysia:
Deletehttps://youtu.be/QnML9xLa4sg
Off topic a bit, I have many Singaporean friends and there are two types:
ReplyDelete1. Ex Malaysians who care much for.the future of our country - they are 100% pakatan japan.
2. Pure breed Singaporeans - they love Najib to the hilt.
Why, you may ask? My conclusion is that real Singaporeans want to see a weak and dumb Malaysia, ringgit should dive deeper in their eyes, for obvious reasons. You see, humans are selfish, do not expect foreigners (not the least Singaporeans) to sympathize with us. It's up to ourselves to change for the better.
Don't be silly lah... we Singaporeans think you are stoopid enough to let a samseng lead your country to ruin boy.....
DeleteTypical Kaisu & Kiasi Singaporean, backstabber!!!
Delete