Well, I don't think I'm capable of giving a 100 per cent sure answer to that.
I have not done any survey or even been on the ground enough to really know how things are with the real political situation.
So, I did what most others usually do when posed with such a question - I gave my take on it based on what little I saw around me and the political mood of people who are connected to me.
I told my friend that I think this coming GE14 may likely be similar to GE12 of 2008.
At least the mood seems the same.
At that time, Dr Mahathir was instrumental in causing quite severe damage to the BN led by Pak Lah.
This time though he went a step further by forming Pribumi Bersatu, which aim is not only to oust Najib, but to even defeat BN and Umno altogether.
I'm quite sure now that his effort has managed to take away a sizeable chunk of Malay support from BN.
Among the signs that I personally noticed of this is in the WhatsApp group conversation of my school alumni.
There used to be lively political debates among us in that group but nowadays it's just a one way street going the opposition way.
I used to be among those who passionately argued for BN, but now I just don't bother to do that anymore.
I see no point in doing so anyway because I would most likely be swamped by the others.
Some of those who used to be pro-establishment and argued for it more passionately than me had even switched sides and became ferociously anti-BN.
But then again, almost all of my alumni are middle class Malay professionals and urbanites, a segment of society not known to be too fond of Umno or BN.
Still, the fact that some of us had chose to switch sides to the opposition may reflects on what's happening on the ground.
Back in 2008, some of my pro-establishment friends did the same. They were rebelling against the Pak Lah's administration, particularly the so-called Fourth Floor Boys led by KJ.
It turned out that what's happening among my friends at that time was also happening on the ground.
That year BN lost Penang, Kedah, Perak, Selangor and most FT parliamentary seats. Pas also retained Kelantan.
Somehow I feel that the same thing is going to happen again.
I told my Singaporean friend this.
My instinct says Pakatan is going to retain Penang and Selangor, captures Kedah and maybe Perak as well as more FT parliamentary seats.
They may also capture more parliamentary seats in the other states, particularly those in Johor, Malacca and Negeri Sembilan.
But do bear in mind that these are just how I feel things will be for GE14.
These are purely my guess, okay.
Do excuse me for that because I believe most other people do the same these days when they talk about politics, especially when it comes to possible outcome of elections.
They agak-agak saja.
But of course, many of them tend to present their guess as the real deal.
That's just the way people are.
Well, never mind.
Time will tell.
I am never a hardcore supporter of any political parties and have been voting on the personalty rather than the party.
ReplyDeleteThe Alliance/BN have been running this country since I was in the primary school till today.
Perhaps out of curiousity that at the back of my head I am wishng for a non BN govt to prevail in the next election.
Its like trying the food you have always refuse to eat before, like a Mat Salleh frowning the smell of durian or belacan before tasting it! Whether this Mat Salleh, after tasting it, will love or regret it... we shall see!
we did better when the british advisors got out
Deletedont bring ruin again
Annie,
ReplyDelete//Well, I don't think I'm capable of giving a 100 per cent sure answer to that.//
Nobody is :)
//Some of those who used to be pro-establishment and argued for it more passionately than me had even switched sides and became ferociously anti-BN//
Typically, the urban professional Malays do not count for very much in a GE.
It is the rural Malay vote which are crucial to BN.
So, hopefully, those in your wassap group are rural Malays OR urban professional Malays with strong, deep and INFLUENTIAL connections to rural Malays.
I know that in my kampung, Pakatan has been trying very hard to engage with the Malays in the outlying kampungs and results have been very encouraging.
Amanah and PPBM have been kicking UMNO ass, from what I have heard.
Hell, even DAP have been able to make friends with the Malays in those outlying Malay kampungs!! Go figure :)
Whether it all translates to votes is another matter.
//most other people do the same these days when they talk about politics, especially when it comes to possible outcome of elections//
Aiyah!!
Pakatan sure win one lah I tell you.
Najib cannot survive one.
Heheheheh!!
Look, where people get those kinds of thoughts does baffle me.
It upsets some of my die-hard Pakatan friends when I suggest that BN could possibly hold on to Putrajaya.
I guess it is no different for die-hard UMNO supporters - their side can never lose.
//many of them tend to present their guess as the real deal.//
It's real, I tell you, 1000% guaranteed to happen.
You wait lah, you will see I am right.
Heheheheh!!
Gladiator
Annie,
ReplyDeleteIf the election is fair then I think Pakatan have chance to win, looking at the moods on the ground.
There is a saying that goes "There is no honor among thieves"
However, our current leaders are well known and popular in whole world and in Malaysia for holding the highest moral standard and principle and integrity.
There is no gerrymandering, the media under the government are imparrtial. We have to give due credit to the current government.
I think the BN gang are honorable people and will hold the election fair and square.
So, PH have chance to win.
By the way, lookding and the map, I think there will be more red dots in Johor and Sabah.
My personal view, is that win or loose, we must fight for the good of our country.
Things have changed a lot since GE12 and GE13.If we are mathematician we would say there are many variable that can affect the outcome of the upcoming GE.
ReplyDeleteI would say BN will perform better than GE13 due to the infightings among parties in Pakatan.
Prof Kangkung
You must be syiok-sendiri, Kangkong.
DeleteI hope you realize... this is the first time I drop that Prof crap in-front of your Kangkong signature. You just don't deserve it.
You must be hallucinating if you think BN will perform better than GE13, just because of infighting in PH's. For all I know, there was a lot more PH's infighting in GE13, yet they won 52% popular votes.
You also seems to forget that during GE13, Dr.M was still supporting UMNO-Najib. As a matter of fact, went down to Gelang Patah to campaign for BN.
While Haji Hadi and Guan Eng was seen holding hands, heading for a ceramah to jahanamkan UMNO.
And... most important, don't forget about 1MDB's Billions of debt, Jho Low, Riza Aziz, lost of Rakyats' asset & prime-land to foreigners just to settle debt, including interest & penalty for late payment.
Don't forget too... this time around, there's RM2.6 Billion in Najib personal account, while Rosmah got RM2 million in hers.
However, you can forget the RM128 million worth of pink-diamond, alleged given to Rosmah by Jho Low as a present, since only DoJ have all the evidence.
Maybe they're just waiting for Najib to dissolve Parliament.
Jho Low too, could discuss terms with DoJ for partial immunity, hence get off with lesser penalty and as prosecution witness, he might be entitled to keep a small portion of the loot.
RD.
DeleteBukannya lama sgt lagi.tunggu ajalah keputusan pilihanraya umum.siapa yang hallucinate siapa yang telling the truth
Prof Kangkung
najib is a lost cause
Deletei dont know what leads or cornered najib to be what he is now but
he should man up step down and face prison if he is truly wants to help malay people
malaysia is weak and is open to lots of foreign powers
"siapa yang hallucinate siapa yang telling the truth?
DeleteYang berkhayal... saya rasa adalah orang seperti Kangkong dan Najib. Dah tak ada truth yang keluar dari mulut kepala-bapak Kleptocracy kamu.
Sehingga boleh kelentong yang dia diberi kebenaran untuk masuk makam Nabi, beri salam direct... ketelinga Nabi Muhammad SAW?... seolah-olah dia boleh masuk dalam keranda atau liang-lahad Baginda.
Ya, memang tak lama dah nak PRU. Tapi... kalau di istihar darurat, guna akta-baru MKN yang kuasa mengistiharkannya di'rampas' dari YDPA, bagaimana?
Nak cari alasan untuk istihar darurat bukannya susah. Meletop sebiji-dua C4 atau IED di tempat awam, lepas tu... blame Daesh. Maklumlah, Jamal Sekincan, dengar cerita, dah tak larat nak cetuskan kekecohan, seperti bertuala, memhempas bercrate-crate botol-beer atau memikul keranda depan pintu pagar SUK Selangor.
Meletop atas kepala kau yang tak ada otak bagus juga kan RD.As of you are praying foe that to happen.UMNO dah hilang kelantan semenjak 1990.berapa biji bom dah meletup kat Kelantan?sah cakap tak guna kepala otak.opss,sorry.I.lupa awak tak ada otak dalam kepala
DeleteProf Kangkung
Sorry for the typo.I was driving
DeleteProf Kangkung
There’s are many corruption from the najib rule
DeleteI reject UMNO
Ill vote for the change of gov because i hate tv3 and i hate the newspapers.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous@ 6 February 2018 at 12:14,
ReplyDelete//If the election is fair then I think Pakatan have chance to win, looking at the moods on the ground.//
Well, I guess gerrymandering is a fair way of winning elections.
After all, gerrymandering happens in the best, and worst, of governments.
Personally, I find it amazing that the Electoral Commission is under the purview of the Agung, and the EC seems quite bold and willing to make the Agung look silly on the international stage with its gerrymandering.
I am surprised the Agung has not previously demanded that the EC behaves itself and act like the professional authority it is supposed to be.
//I think the BN gang are honorable people and will hold the election fair and square.//
Actually, I think some BN people are quite honorable but unfortunately, they have no political power at the top end of town.
//So, PH have chance to win.//
Yes, PH has a chance to win, but so does BN :)
//I think there will be more red dots in Johor and Sabah.//
If Pakatan has done enough in Johor and if Warisan has done enough in Sabah, sure, there will be lots of new red dots.
Otherwise ...
//we must fight for the good of our country. //
I am a lover, not a fighter :)
I am already having problems finding a nice sweet female to share my life and I don't think my chances will improve if I go looking for one with a black eye, missing teeth, clothes torn and bleeding because I have been fighting.
So I hope you don't mind if I pass on the fighting and just turn up at the ballot box to vote?
Gladiator
Gladiator choose love over fight. That's funny.
DeleteSort of like Gladiator turn Romeo or DonJuan..
Valentine day is near.
There are some girls that find a black eye, and bleeding nose is a sign of muscularity. A true manhood or a hero. A lot of girls like that kind of stuff.
don`t be masculine, its not a women`s nature and i`m not condensing at all
Deleteyou wont want equality when it becomes uncomfortable for women
Hi Anne,
ReplyDeleteIt is truly refreshing to see your realistic take on the current mood of the populace.Good riddance of those wool over your eyes.
For every 10 people that I speak to,none and I mean none has anything good to say about our current rotten government.
Just last Sunday attended a wedding kenduri in my neighbourhood and the vitriolic spewed towards BN was just unbelievable.The folks comprised taxi drivers,teachers,
factory employees,self employed and other middle level govt employees.TDM commands huge respect amongst them.
The above is the mood of the folks in Pasir Gudang.Malays,Chinese,Indians and the west Malaysians seem to have the same pattern of thought and are restless to show their disgust come polling day.
At a time where all those earning below RM4K are struggling to make ends meet, we have leaders who take pride in communicating with the dead,treating some sick guy with air jampi,declaring military intervention against Israel,fake personality heading a unit to fight fake news...who in their right frame of mind would want to support these assholes and their party ?
Me and my friends (almost 30) will never ever vote for a party that has torn this beautiful nation into shreds.Never!
However, developments in Maldives make me worrisome.There is lots of similarities and despotic leaders know no boundaries to cling on to power. But TDM's call to take to the streets is a classic preemptive strike against the monstrous NSC.
Many thanks Annie for being true to yourself.
Cheers
Rasta Rules
Rasta Rules.
DeleteYou must be speaking to the RBAs only.I would like to invite you to my extended family ranging from labourers,govt servant,students and housewives.A cross section of the society.Only then you will realize that many UMNO and BN supporters are still out there.
Prof Kangkung
I agree with Prof Kangkong,
DeleteThere is "a cross section" of people who strongly support DS Najib.
That is because the economy is getting better. Jobs are plenty.
According to Tan Sri Sharizat, compared to the previous PM in Malaysia, DS Najib is the best.
This cross section of people strongly believe this is a clean government. After all there is no even a whisper of corruptions.
Only the best and capable people were given the jobs who put their own interest aside in favor of interest of the rakyat. People like Isa Samad for interest who have the highest integrity were chosen for Felda.
Our leaders reputation in World is sparkling with a good governance and highest morality.
That is why Prof Kangkong and this cross section of the society strongly support the current administration.
Hi Profess-Sore,
DeleteRasta takes no invitation from lunatics.
Didn't realise RBA's have infiltrated Malay weddings and kenduris and my attendance was at Felda Chaya Baru, Masai, Johor.
Meeting up with your extended family ?
Rasta abhors being in the company of birds of a feather flock.No Thanks.
Why don't you make a trip to JB to see and hear for yourself.
I will foot your travel costs (both ways), accommodation for a max 2 nights at any lodge (max RM 150 per night).Internal travel shall be taken care by my Renault.
Makan shall be your business cuz'I am not familiar with the type of food creepers consume.
Please let me know as I await eagerly to take you on a tour to JB,Pasir Gudang,Permas Jaya,Pangkalan Rinting and Johor Jaya (2 parliamentary and 3 state constituencies).
It would be more than a cross section of peoples,kampungs,villages,sungeis and longkangs.
Cheers
Rasta Rules
Prof,
DeleteWho are BN's supporters and opponents
Classifications:
(1)Believers- I am a strong supporter of BN
(2)Conditionals- These are transactional supporters who says he/she has to deliver what they want to keep their support
(3)Curious- These are opponent who could turn supporter if BN reach out to them
(4}Resisters- they firmly say they oppose BN
If you are in classification one no amount of words /GST /high costs of living can change you
Now,you can feel that you are lonely
Listen to this song by JD Souther ' You Are Only Lonely '
Fadzireen
Fadzureen,
DeleteWait until the results of GE14 come out.You can feel how lonely you are
Prof kangkung
Anonymous @ 6 February 2018 at 19:42,
ReplyDelete// choose love over fight//
Fighting is a messy business - people get hurt.
And I don't like the sight of blood, especially mine :)
//Sort of like Gladiator turn Romeo or DonJuan..//
Hahahah!!
Romeo was a bit of a tragic lover.
He died in the end without getting Juliet, didn't he?
I dunno cos I have never read the story or maybe I have but I don't remember reading it.
Don Juan?
Hm, I didn't really know very much about him so I had to have a quick read about him in Wikipedia and he sounds like another tragic.
Seems he died a violent death!!
So, no Romeo or Don Juan for me :)
//Valentine day is near.//
My goldfish doesn't like chocolates so I guess it is going to be a very quiet Valentine's Day for moi :(
//There are some girls that find a black eye, and bleeding nose is a sign of muscularity.//
A sign of masculinity, you mean?
Sounds more like a weakling who got beaten up for trying to act like some godforsaken tough hero, I think :)
//A lot of girls like that kind of stuff.//
Eeeerrr.. you mean, I will need to keep getting beaten up so those girls will keep liking me looking like that?
Ouch!!
No thanks, I am no masochist!! :)
Gladiator
"tunggu ajalah keputusan pilihanraya umum."
ReplyDeleteKetika keputusan PRU 13, Kangkong masih ingatkah raut-muka Najib semasa mengikuti pengumumannya... lepas tu kata, 'Chinese tsunami'.
Masa tu, saya masih sokong UMNO/BN dan saya sangat sedih tengok muka Najib. Berlinang air-mata saya. Masa tu juga, belum kedengaran mengenai Jho Low dan 1MDB.
Masa tu Pas dalam Pakatan.Jangan lupa tu.
DeleteProf Kangkung
sleeping pak lah lost some & scandalous MO1 will lose MORE simple logic leh wakakaka
ReplyDeleteAgree Annie. I was young in GE12 but I remember well, ramai Melayu yang malu2 nak mengaku UMNO. A Gerakan friend also complained that tak ada Melayu mau pasang bendera.
ReplyDeleteNow, I think I am seeing a comparable situation. Dalam majlis UMNO memang la hero. Tapi bila keluar lepak dengan geng lain; semua malu2 kucing. Siap join kutuk Najib dan 1mdb.