Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah will very likely dissolve the State assembly when he returns from abroad on Aug 27.
Why?
Because his royal highness may want to settle the unnecessary mess created by the gang of PKR's DS Anwar Ibrahim once and for all.
I also don't think the cool Sultan will let Anwar get away with all the nonsense of trying to turn Selangor into his private family property by giving the MB post to his wife.
After all, Anwar and his wife are both non-Selangorian.
Anwar is from the Lim family's kingdom of Penang, while his wife DS Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail was born in the Lee family's kingdom of Singapore.
I also believe that the now independent MB TS Abdul Khalid Ibrahim will advise the Sultan to dissolve the state assembly.
He would not want Anwar and the gang to win the State without having to go through a bruising fight.
After all, they had accused him of all sorts of things including being corrupted and selling his soul to BN.
He must also feel very pissed that Pas had stabbed him in the back and will not want that party to get away with it without paying a price. Read on and find out why Khalid may have his revenge over Pas if he wants it.
Khalid, I believe will make it as difficult as possible for Pakatan.
So, what will happen if there is a snap state election?
Currently, DAP has 15 state seats, Pas (15), PKR (13), BN (12) and Independent (1). There are a total of 56 seats in the Selangor assembly.
I am not so interested in DAP seats as I think they will have no problem defending them with the solid Chinese majority support in those constituencies under their control.
Attention should be in constituencies contested by Pas and PKR which have bigger percentage of Malay voters.
Let's go through them one by one based on the results of the last general election last year: I am putting the constituencies which BN stand a reasonable chance to win in blue.
N1 Sungai Air Tawar - Pas lost by 1,416 votes
N2 Sabak Bernam - Pas won by 219 votes
N3 Sungai Panjang - Pas lost by 2,183 votes
N5 Hulu Bernam - Pas lost by 3,032 votes
N7 Batang Kali - PKR lost by 5,398 votes
N8 Sungai Burong - Pas lost by 3,013 votes
N9 Permatang - PKR lost by 1,026 votes
N10 Bukit Melawati - PKR lost by 806 votes
N11 Ijok - PKR won by 739 votes
N12 Jeram - Pas lost by 2,834 votes
N13 Kuang - PKR lost by 1,255 votes
N14 Rawang - PKR won by 9,241 votes
N15 Taman Templer - Pas won by 7,467 votes
N16 Batu Caves - PKR won by 3,261 votes
N17 Gombak Setia - Pas won by 1,681 votes
N18 Hulu Kelang - Pas won by 2,881 votes
N19 Bukit Antarabangsa - PKR won by 4,044 votes
N20 Lembah Jaya - Pas won by 8,713 votes
N21 Chempaka - Pas won by 9,608 votes
N23 Dusun Tua - Pas won by 4,071 votes
N24 Semenyeh - PKR lost by 4,145 votes
N25 Kajang - PKR won by 6,824 votes
N26 Bangi - Pas won by 11,838 votes
N29 Seri Serdang - Pas won by 16,251 votes
N32 Seri Setia - PKR won by 4,663 votes
N33 Taman Medan - PKR won by 3,731 votes
N37 Bukit Lanjan - PKR won by 17,200 votes
N38 Paya Jaras - Pas won by 5,522 votes
N39 Kota Damansara - PKR lost by 1,527 votes
N40 Kota Anggerik - PKR won by 5,000 votes
N41 Batu Tiga - PKR won by 3,805 votes
N42 Meru - Pas won by 9,079 votes
N43 Sementa - Pas won by 7,846 votes
N45 Selat Klang - Pas won by 2,754 votes
N46 Pelabuhan Klang - PKR won by 2,994 votes
N49 Seri Andalas - PKR won by 15,633 votes
N50 Sri Muda - PKR won by 12,510 votes
N51 Sijangkang - Pas won by 2,942 votes
N53 Morib - Pas won by 766 votes
N54 Tanjong Sepat - Pas won by 682 votes
N55 Dengkil - PKR lost by 2,317 votes
That's 21 seats BN may win, just enough to deny Pakatan a two third majority in Selangor, I think.
And the one most under threat will be Pas, which stand to lose up to seven out of their current 15 seats. However, since they don't seem to mind being the junior partner in Pakatan and live under the DAP's armpit, I guess it would be fine by them.
DAP will be confirmed as the biggest taikor of Pakatan by retaining all their 15 Chinese-majority areas, as PKR may lose another three of their seats.
By the way, the 21 seats possibly to be won by BN will all be Umno's, making the Malay nationalist party individually having the most seats.
I am giving BN a reasonable chance of capturing the constituencies where they were beaten by not more than 3,000 votes in GE13.
I think that's not too outlandish considering that BN won the recent Teluk Intan by-election despite the constituency being won by DAP, the king of Pakatan, by more than 7.000 votes majority in the last general election.
I agree with your prediction of the course Khalid would most probably take with regards the Selangor State Assembly and fresh elections is what I have stated as my preference several times before.
ReplyDeleteAfter all, it's only fair to US SELANGOR RESIDENTS to have a say in the composition of our State Assembly after all these self-interested political manouvres and manipulations supposedly in our name, but which have disregarded us in reality.
So we should be given the chance to have our say again at the ballot box, whatever the outcome, so be it.
I think you can add 3 more going to BN:
ReplyDelete1. N16 Batu Caves
2. N33 Taman Medan
3. N41 Batu Tiga.
The Indian votes could swing back to BN in those constituencies. BN could end up double the Aduns; from 12 to 24.
I second that.
ReplyDeleteI'm Kedahan living in Selangor since 1985. As a voter, I also wants another say at the ballot box. If greedy and selfish politicians are allowed to manipulate what Kajang voters have already decided, I see no reason why we should not be given another chance to decide who should represent us again.
PKR seems unable to sort anything on their own. Just look at their chaotic party election. After 5 month, nothing have been finalized. What a joke for a political party which uses Justice (Keadilan) as its name.
The tussle for MB post too will persist, no matter who takes over. It will only cease with a fresh State Election. If they say, its a waste of public fund, they are the one to blame. It's their own doing. They are the one who started it with that Kajang move.
Agreed!!As a fence sitter i totally vote for bn this time.Enough is enough.Wan Azizah asyik tersengih2 mcm kerang busuk tanpa perasaan malu kpd org selangor..Apa dah tak de org lain lagi ke..tuduh org nepotisme..parti dia dah mcm parti anak-beranak..bangkai betul..
DeleteMAJORITY OF PAS CEC MEMBERS ARE ANWARINAS......
ReplyDeleteSO PAS IS PKR.....AND PKR IS PAS......
PAS NOW IS DIFFERENT FROM PAS OF YESTERYEARS.
PAS IS NOW MORE LIKE PARTI AGUNGKAN SIALJUBURRI......
Don't forget.
DeleteMat Sabu, PAS Deputy President, is working for DAP. After losing the contest for Pendang Parliament seat, GE13, he is no longer a YB. However he still keeps the Director post in PBAPP. (Pebadanan Bekalan Air Pulau Pinang).
Once, as a pillion rider, he falls off a motorcycle, fleeing tear-gas during a riot in KL. His medicals bills, paid-off by PBAPP, which is against corporate rules. At that time, Kedah was under Pas' rule. The Director post was a token from DAP. We can understand then, since Pulau Pinang main source of water comes from Kedah.
Therefore, if PAS decide to leave PR, I don't think DAP would be willing to keep a biawak-hidup in PBAPP.
ANOTHER ELECTION IN SELANGOR.
ReplyDeleteWELL IT'S GOING TO BE A DOOMSDAY FOR PAKATAN.
In Shaa Allah. Saya memang amat amat mengharapkan PKR, DAP dan PAS lingkup di Selangor dan mana mana juga negeri di Malaysia!
Deletekalau setakat dpt 24 kerusi tak ada faedah pun buat pilihanraya semula. kecuali org cina terjaga dari tidur dan buang mimpi indah bersama kit siang
DeleteSince i believe the ruling parties have prerogative on changing their MBs or PM when they have lost the confidence of their colleagues, i never commented about the takeover of Najib as PM forcing out Pak Lah mid-term, Terengganu MB crisis and now so far i have nothing to say about Selangor MB issue.
ReplyDeleteBut DAP and to some extent PKR/PAS have prepared for possible snap election for sometime now. That's why there were a lot more grassroots programs and activities in 2014 compared to average years before GE13 to cement the relationships of the PR ADUNs to their areas. Even in Kota Damansara where PR lost because of three-corner fight!
By taking a lower voters turnout of 2008 GE12, net decline of some older voters and with PR supported now by Hindraf leaders that were betrayed by BN promises into their electoral machinery in 2013 GE13, the results would be roughly the same as 2008 with PR 35 - BN 21 seats.
Differences of a few individual seats here or there due to local sentiments like Gombak Setia being PAS Markaz etc but total tally will be as above.
Since Selangor being a well-developed state and transport hub, outstation voters will have no problem returning to cast their votes for this important election to maintain a check-and-balance against UMNO-led Federal government. Internally, UMNO is still widely hated among many important segment of voters in Selangor.
Was just reminded by a Malay makcik today that prior to GE13, BR1M was supposed to be RM1,200 but after BN victory only RM650 given. What about cheaper cars and no GST as per BN GE13 promises? Every promises broken or delayed until next 2018 GE14. So just have to dig up and remind the voters plus the increasing extremism of some UMNO leaders since GE13..Haha
With Dr M getting weaker and older at 93 years old by GE14 then, he will be making his move to place his son very soon for PMship. Surely Dr M cannot wait till after 2018 to replace Najib with his favoured choice. So this Selangor snap election results will be his opportunity to cause maximum damage to Najib's incompetent leadership.
Like 2008 GE12, Dr M will not ask people to vote for PR but simply whack and condemn Najib's leadership during the snap elections campaign. It's enough to derail Najib's administration by opening the floodgates to the UMNO grassroots to rebel for new leadership change.
Interesting times...
~ Kluang girl
Wa ingat lah , itu kalau atak election balu punya, lagi babut maa a , itu Losmah boih masuk bertanding Selangor punya dewan lea a .
DeleteLosmah jadi MB loo oo .
setuju sgt, harap 2 Tun mainkan peranan tunjuk sikit kepada najib dan dato dato yg kaki kipas bontotnya pengajaran yg sgt berguna
DeleteYeah, and you just swallow whatever Lim family feed into your mouth. No doubt about Chinese hating UMNO. But Malays have too much time in their hands. Their lives revolve around politics and religion. They swung many times in the past, not just in the past 2 elections. Wouldn't be surprise if they come back into UMNO's arms this time. End of day, what matters to them is their religion and their rights, not cheap cars, free tax, rights for gays or whatever shit like that.
DeleteRealistically, any malay/muslim with an iota of iman in his/her vein, should just write off PAS. They are nothing more than a dumb mule for Anwar, who in turn is the pathetic front for syaitan all out to destroy Islam in this beloved country.
ReplyDeleteIt is time that we pray for their demise as we pray for the demise of the zionist in Israel.
PAS was never a force and can never be one. I'm wondering how they finance their election machinery these days. Can't help but wonder if they are indebted to someone or some party in monetary ways. Ever been to a PAS do? A few years back before PRU13 they collected around RM6,000 from their supporters at their HQ in Gombak and that was a wow moment for them. Politics these days cost money. Where is PAS' election money coming from?
Deleteref:"Where is PAS' election money coming from?"
DeleteAnon 2354,PAS's daily ceramah thruout the nation is churning hundred thousands ringgit.Their ceramah(s) are carried out every day election or no election.PAS's survival or finance therefore depends highly on its members.
Snap elections? Fat hopes lo Annie and gang..
ReplyDeleteUnless we go back to absolute monarchy instead of parliamentary monarchy lo..
When 3 frogs jump to BN in perak in 2009 and BN got only majority of 1 also no snap elections now in Selangor the majority is over 40 where come the snap elections..
Unless this country got 2 sets of law lo ..One for BN and another for others..
Then we make a mockery out of the Westminster version of the parliamentary monarchy and be made a laughing stock the world over.
Anon 20:42,
DeleteI'm not sure if you are one pakatan haram element, but i want to say that pakatan haram likes to use this phrase a lot : laughing stock the world over.
Malaysia has never been a laughing stock to the world. This is a fact.
It's also a fact that the only one that is always trying to make malaysia a laughing stock to the world and keep telling other countries bad things about malaysia is the pakatan haram people.
saya lebih risaukan perkembangan minda kaum muda di malaysia berbanding politik.. jika dahulu golongan muda kurang untuk ambil tahu tentang politik.. kini merekalah suara dan senjata parti-parti politik.. adakah ia suatu perkara yang bagus?
ReplyDeletepenglibatan golongan muda hanya di atas konsep penolakan, kebencian, dan perkara-perkara negatif.. sebagai contoh nya demontrasi GST.. rata-rata dari mereka tidak tahu tentang GST.. namun mereka sanggup bersusah payah, berteriak menolak GST.. ada yang katakan SEBELUM INI TIADA CUKAI, kalau ada cukai lagi mahal barang..
sedih melihat mentaliti golongan muda sebegini.. lebih gemar share fitnah daripada mencari berita sebenar, punca serta memahami segala isu yang berlaku.. tidak berusaha untuk menambah ilmu politik.. suka mengambil cara mudah dengan percaya pada fitnah-fitnah di media.. baik melayu, india dan cina..
apa akan jadi dengan malaysia jika golongan ini di didik sebegini.. lihat adam adli..apa yang dia ada hari ini? belajar pun masih belum habis, sibuk berpolitik.. jika dia rasa dia buat perkara yang mulia, dia silap.. dia bakal menyesatkan lagi ramai generasi muda..dulu dia masuk ke bangunan UMNO dan turun kan bendera.. untuk apa? untuk tunjuk berani? dia mungkin akan menyelamatkan hidup dia ialah dengan menyertai politik.. menjadi wakil rakyat.. tapi apa akan jadi dengan orang lain?
sedih nya rakyat malaysia begini..
Anwar pun suka klu buat fresh election dia,bini dia n anak dia blh bertanding(alamak sori Anwar takleh bertanding psl dia telah jatuh hukuman 5 tahun penjara kerna kes liwat).klu PR menang Anwar akan cadang Wan jijah dan anaknya Nurul Izzah jd MB.Azmin melopong lah jugak.
ReplyDeleteSedih bila tengok nasib pas. Bila nak guna disayang2, bila dibenci ditendang2. Kena ubah bulan jadi bola kalau gitu keadaannya.
ReplyDeletetak perlu sedih utk parti yg dipimpin oleh org yang macam ni...sepatutnya kena bagi cacian dan penghinaan berterusan
DeletePAS was conducting damage limitation exercises to explain the U-turn. Are they still believable?
ReplyDeleteTO Ketum Juburi and HIS Pas-pis-pus
ReplyDeleteBACKSTABBER!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_LuIH5Pxvo
Petikan dari JejariKami:
ReplyDeleteMENARIKNYA sepanjang minggu lalu adalah kenyataan yang mempertahankan tindakan doktrin politik bahawa dengan memilih parti politik yang memperjuangkan Islam, ia akan memperoleh pahala dan dengan pahala itulah akan menjamin seseorang itu ke syurga apabila tiba saatnya, iaitu pada saat dipertimbangkan oleh Allah SWT menerusi satu proses pengadilan ke atas apa yang dilakukan sepanjang hidup di dunia.
Profesor Dr. Sheikh Sulaiman Saloomi dari Universiti Umul Qura, Mekah, menyifatkan propaganda itu bukanlah sesuatu yang termaktub dalam al-Quran, ia adalah sebuah doktrin politik yang dibuat dalam kejahilan, kebodohan dan kesesatan. Asasnya ialah doktrin itu telah memecahbelahkan perpaduan umat Islam, sedangkan parti politik hanyalah sebagai alat memperoleh kuasa.
Mereka berjaya mengeksploitasikan Islam dan menjadikan 'tawaran ke syurga' sebagai doktrin politik sehingga membawa kepada ketaksuban pemikiran. Atas kesan negatif yang ditimbulkan itu, maka pakar akidah, mazhab dan ahli Majlis Fatwa Masjidil Haram itu mengharapkan mereka segera memperbetulkan kesilapan tersebut.
Pada ayat 111 Surah al-Baqarah disebut dakwaan orang Yahudi bahawa syurga adalah untuk pengikut mereka sahaja. Cuba fikirkan, banyakkah beza antara ‘undi Pas masuk syurga’ dengan amalan Yahudi seperti yang dinyatakan dalam al-Quran?
Padahal ALLAH SWT menegaskan bahawa semua itu adalah angan-angan Yahudi dan Kristian. Dalam ayat 113 surah yang sama, ALLAH menyebut bahawa orang Quraisy yang musyrik juga ikut serta dalam polemik itu. Rumusan kepada kedua-dua ayat ini ialah penentuan masuk syurga hanya akan ditentukan oleh ALLAH pada hari pengadilan di hari kiamat nanti.
Dalam ayat 123 Surah an-Nisa’, ALLAH menjelaskan, orang Islam tidak boleh angkuh dan menganggap bahawa mereka saja yang akan masuk syurga dan orang lain tidak kerana penentuan terhadap perkara ini hanyalah oleh ALLAH SWT.
“Dan sesiapa yang mengerjakan amal soleh, dari lelaki atau perempuan, sedang dia beriman, maka mereka itu akan masuk syurga dan mereka pula tidak akan dianiayai (atau dikurangkan balasannya) sedikit pun. Dan tidak ada yang lebih baik agamanya daripada orang yang menyerahkan dirinya kepada ALLAH (dengan ikhlas), sedang dia berusaha mengerjakan kebaikan dan dia pula mengikut agama Nabi Ibrahim yang lurus (yang tetap di atas dasar tauhid); dan (kerana itulah) ALLAH menjadikan Nabi Ibrahim kesayangan-NYA.”
Janji ALLAH dalam ayat 124-125 dalam surah ini adalah kepada mereka yang mengerjakan amal soleh,serta orang beriman kepada ALLAH dan Rasul. Tidak pula disebut untuk mereka yang mengundi Pas.
CETEK MINDA dan KERAS HATI. Itulah ciri-ciri orang yang taksub kepada pemimpin politik tak kira yang mana2 puak pun. Kita disuruh taat pada Allah dan Rasul dan pemimpin yang memimpin kita; ia boleh di tegur dalam kebenaran tapi ia tidak dapat janji paspot siapapun ke syurga. Sombong dan angkuh beratnya hanya sebiji jintan hitam akan luput kelayakan kita masuk kesyurga ooii . . .
DeletePas telah diserapi syiah dan socialist yang bertopengkan islam. Lihat saja gambar mereka yang tidak lagi berserban atau berkopiah. Orang kampung dan orang bandar yang jahil sudah masuk perangkap.
DeleteSnap election may be a good solution after all for PR. With MCA, MIC, Gerakan being lame ducks in BN, UMNO would be lucky they can still retain their seats.
ReplyDeleteIt also gives Nurul a chance to stand for a state seat as well as Rafizi, zairil, Husam, mat Sabu, etc.
Has the people's perception of BN changed much since the last election? Unlikely, it may have turn worst for BN cos deep inside everyone believes BN is behind all the crisis and troubles in Selangor thru their actions or in actions.
Wanna bet?
Anon 08:37 must be deft and blind.
DeleteAre you saying that "BN is behind all the crisis and troubles in Selangor"? That Najib bribed Lim Chin Cheh, to vacate Kajang seat so that Anwar or his wife can be MB to replace Khalid?
The chaotic PKR election is BN's doing too?
After 5 month, have Lee-what and wife as Party President been re-elected?
What a moron.
And you still dare to bet on it!
kena pastikan di mana isteri ketum bertanding mestilah kalah secukup cukupnya. kasi malu itu ketum dan keluarga
DeleteAnon 08:37
DeleteIt doesn't matter at all what these 'people' think about BN. The 'people' that you talk about is itself the biggest problem that Malaysia faces now.
These 'people' lacks the ability and maturity to think, succumbs to whatever lies and rhetoric that pakatan haram manipulators feed them, supporting liars and opportunists thinking that these are truthful statesmen, and worst of all, trying to destroy this Country with their misguided crusade yet believing that they will turn Malaysia into like Singapore.
These zombies won't change, of course. You have a good chance to win the bet. The fact that these 'people' will blame BN for the mess in Selangor proves that these 'people' are real zombies which are blind. And they must be poisoned to death and their heads smashed.
Menang Sorak, tetapi kampung tergadai. That's what BN is good at.
ReplyDeleteThe old man knows what the PM does not know about sentiments of Mahathirists and right wingers and his taukey cronies. He just refuse to say out loud.
"Najib, you are useless" "Najib, you are worst than that sleepy dumbo" "Najib, you are destroying my dynasti of succession which I have built up for 23 years" "Najib, you haven't yet thrown Anwar into jail" Najib, you haven't built my crooked bridge" "Najib, my MB son needs to go up now, before I die"
Hail Mahafiraun! Long Live the Mamak King of all Kings. This is Tanah Mamak, not Tanah Melayu!
Anon 11:18
DeleteFor 22 years Tun M as the PM, Malaysia progressed. Monkeys like you even though are racist pigs deep inside, would hide in the closet and have no place to in the society openly.
Then came Bedouin the sleepy hollow, thinking that he is closer to God, eager to show what Islam hadhari is about and that he could melt people's heart with his Islam, naively destroying the very foundation of the nation's peace. He even scrapped the scenic bridge for Singapore and lost the country's territory batu putih.
And now the Smiley red libs aka Santa Claus, keep smiling for no reason, surrendering tanjung pagar and the entire railway track in haste, scraping ISA to prove his big heart, attracting invasions in sabah and sabotage of Malaysian commercial aircraft, and still smiling. All because the enemies know well that this Guy too is close to God and peace be upon him.
Mamak king of all kings ? It's only a pervert Christian calls name like that. Jesus the king of all kings …
Tanah Melayu or not, rats like you must go.
what the f**k are you hollering about you pariah soundbox?
Deleteeven none partisan like me can see through your hypocritical DAPig racist approach..always blame mamak this mamak that..hey bodoh a mamak is a full blooded indian with islam as thier faith/religion..mahathir is half malaylah bangang..her mother is wan tempawan a kedahan malay
DeleteI hate DAPig's scumbag like Anon 11:18 . Stupid racist, anti-Islam scumbag.
Deletein between the mamak and dap,i rather choose mamak than you.NAH
DeleteCina tak setanding ayahanda tm..tu pasai meroyan...tamo tanya o habaq mai berapa keturunan reta lge lks nuar sekuarga baru abes...meh cite meh meh...
ReplyDelete